Turd 2012

Mon, Feb 13, 2012 - 11:40am

Sorry for the late start this morning. The Turd is just a bit under the weather and moving somewhat slowly. I've noticed, however, that our "markets" don't seem to care. They always seem to go about their business whether or not I'm at my post.

The world is in turmoil but you'd never know it by looking at PM prices. Athens is burning. Civil War in Syria with Russia on one side and the U.S (and Al-Qaeda) on the other. Israel is killing Iranian nuclear scientists and Iran is attacking Israeli diplomats while the U.S prepares forces for the likely event of war. Stocks in America are up almost 20% over the past 6 weeks, all on the back of a falling unemployment rate that was statistically manufactured from whole cloth by bureaucrats at the BLS and a a surge in price by a company (Apple) which now constitutes about 25% of the NASDAQ. It's all so surreal that it's difficult to coherently comment so I'm going to keep this somewhat brief.

First up, the metals. To me, it's clear from the CoT numbers that the Cartels are not going to allow prices to continue much higher from here. There will still be rallies and silver, in particular, looks pretty sturdy above $33...but...with EE short interest growing and momentum slowing, it only appears to be a matter of time before we get a dip in price for both. As you can see on the charts below, if The Forces of Darkness can break some resistance levels, both metals have room to fall before finding rather obvious support zones. Let's see if it happens. For now, I'm not buying anything as I wait for a chance to BTFD.


I hope by now you've had a chance to read the post from Saturday regarding OI, the CoT and lease rates. I'll be watching the silver lease rates very closely this week for signs of an impending raid. As mentioned in that post, the magic level for raids seems to be -0.40%. After falling by a basis point of Friday, the 1-month rate currently stands at -0.31%. Turdite "margaritatime" dug into the internet to find a post written almost 10 years ago by Uncle Ted. If you've ever wondered about lease rates....what they are and how they work...I suggest you take a few minutes to read this excellent summary:


Our friend, Jeff Nielson, has written a brief, new article that seems to fit on well with this post. It's nothing earth-shattering but it's some quality reassurance at a time when everything seems so upside down:


Lastly, more on the impending war with Iran. First, there's this:


then there's this:


And, finally, there's this.


Not surprisingly, crude is UP on all of this at sitting right at $100 as I type. Be cautious out there and stay diligent. Something tells me that this is going to be a long week. TF

p.s. Turdite "cris" has decided that yours truly would make a much better president than any of the current crop of dorks and losers. In all candor, I have to agree. To that end, Cris has nominated "Turd Ferguson" for president on the website https://www.americanselect.org/ If you go there and sign up, you'll be able to search for my name and then add your support. My platform is:

  • Elimination of The Fed and a return to a gold standard
  • Dramatic cuts in federal spending
  • Significant reduction in overseas military presence
  • Flat tax of 15% on all individuals and corporations
  • Amend Constitution for term limits of six years for President, Senators and Congress.

Now I just have to find a veep. Maybe Rachel McAdams? No, she's Canadian. I suppose Charlize Theron is out, too, as she's South African. Nuts. Gonna have to give that one some thought.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Juan Moment · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:44am


endlessmountain lays it out:

DaddyO · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:44am


Wow... I'm not a virgin anymore!!

Ok, for all you out there who find the "First" post thing tiring, go ahead and trash me.

For all you others, woo hoo!!


zigzagzz · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:49am

60 Minutes

Don't know if anyone posted this but Indians are getting it and look like they have for centuries.


Be Prepared · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:50am

UGA & the Long Bond (TLT) Correlation

The average American family will have spent around $4,155 this year on filling up their tanks or about 8.4% of their income. This is the highest amount spent since 1981 and more of the same could be on the horizon. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for crude oil will climb more than 1.4% in 2012, with China requiring more than a 10th of that amount used. As emerging markets continue to expand at rapid paces, this demand will only get larger over the next few decades.

The second problem lies within the fact that the majority of American refineries use more expensive Brent benchmaked crude oil to produce gasoline. As protests in the Middle East and falling production from Europe has kept Brent prices high, refiners in the Gulf have had to pay more, in order to get access to feed stocks. This has ultimately driven prices for a variety of distillates upwards.

I have already predicted in an earlier post that we will see over $4 per gallon gas in May/June 2012... mainly due to seasonal highs. How though is this effecting the flow of money? Is the increased allocation of discretionary spending effecting the long bond. Both times below when UGA hit the 10% relative mark an increase in TLT by at least 25% relative to UGA followed within 6 months.

I always post in the old thread during a thread change....

Kevin C · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:50am

Link to article on returning to the gold standard

Here is the link: https://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/13/lets-return-to-the-gold-standa I hope it works. Good article.

Congratulations Daddy-O on losing your virginity.

SilverWealth · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:53am
Dr G · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:54am

@Be Prepared, that gasoline

@Be Prepared, that gasoline figure is astounding. 8.5% of their income spent on filling the cars. I was completely unaware of that. I'm in a bit of shock after thinking about it.

I thought we would see $4+ gas last summer. I've learned that the markets are so rigged that it's impossible to predict these things.

Great post.

Colonel Angus · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:55am

Turd's Veep

I guess Daniela Cambone is out also...what about Ron Paul? I know he doesn't have the looks of the others, but he sure does have the ideals and the ideas.

ReachWest · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:56am

Turd for President!!

Thanks for the update - But, I thought there was already a big Turd in the White House!

Of course, I like our Turd's platform much better and his candidates for VP sound enticing.

Dr G · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:56am

So Obama wants to spend 3.8

So Obama wants to spend 3.8 trillion $ in 2013. That's his plan?


EDITED: I'm voting for Turd! Hands down. I do wish there was so frozen yogurt on Turd's campaign platform, however.

balz · Feb 13, 2012 - 11:58am

No flat tax

I agree with everything you said, but tax-flat is plain stupid. Its nonsense to ask the poor guy to pay the same taxes as the ultra-rich. Any society should make the rich pay a little bit more. It does not mean it has to tax the rich to a point where there would be no incentive to become rich, but it's only fair to have Warren Buffet pay more percent of his income than average Joe. Flat tax is... flat stupid... sorry.

Paladex · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:01pm

Turd's VP - Woody Harrelson

Turd, if you're looking to Hollywood, you couldn't do better than Woody Harrelson. For those of you who haven't seen the documentary he hosted, "Ethos," he's 100% on board with almost everything discussed daily in Turdville. A bit to the left of many here, probably, but well within the Venn diagram overlap.

Video unavailable
pourty · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:01pm

Sorry, can't vote Turd for pres...

Because I have to vote RP... But Turd would make an excellent Treasury Secretary, or better yet, fed president. Send one of the good guys into the belly of the dark side to fix it from within... (and by fix, I mean dismantle...)

Silver_investor Dr G · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:06pm

Re: So Obama wants to spend 3.8

The White House budget office (OMB) is projecting a budget deficit for the current fiscal year of $1.33 trillion. That is higher than the deficit for the previous fiscal year, and higher than the deficit recently projected by the Congressional Budget Office. The current fiscal year will be the fourth straight year with a deficit in excess of $1 Trillion. This is quite a recovery!

pourty · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:06pm

@balz re: flat tax

A flat tax, by definition, taxes the same percentage from everyone. It levels the playing field. I have no love for banksters, but I don't support policies that punish you for being successful. Of course, I would much rather repeal the 16th and go back to a constitutional tax scheme... But a flat ax would definitely be an improvement over the current confiscatory system...

murphy · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:07pm

Thurd again

Check this story out. I think TPTB are laying the ground work for gold to be accepted in the west


@TF - You've got more of a chance to get "Reach West McAdams" to join you on your platform

cpnscarlet balz · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:09pm

Tax the rich...

@balz - The Framers would disagree. They believed in equal protection under the law. Therefore, any direct tax would be APPROTIONED to the states. If the states wanted to collect that tax with a progressive or regressive system, that was their choice. The Federal gov't could also levy excise taxes which would, obviously, be paid more by affluent people as they tended to consume more. But those taxes should be avoidable in a perfect world...sorry about that Whiskey Rebellion, but that's life.

Your view of society is so quaint, but just like shit, a little bit of collectivism ruins that whole meal. Time to empty your load pan there.

opticsguy · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:12pm

alternative to term limits

How a bout a "legislative jubilee" every 12 or 24 years? It means that every senate and house seat, plus the president, can not run for re-election in a jubilee year. All new faces. After sitting out 2 years (or 4 or 6 if you're a senator), you can run for your old seat back. How many people would spend $10 million for a senate seat 2 years before a jubilee? Think what kind of problems could be solved.

24 years works well, as it gives every generation it's own jubilee. Plus, nobody should be in the legislature for that long.

Air Garcia · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:13pm

Please elaborate, Turd

You state:

​To me, it's clear from the CoT numbers that the Cartels are not going to allow prices to continue much higher from here.

Is this long term or short term?

I mean, is our big picture 'silver to the moon' hope losing it's luster? 



lairdwd · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:16pm

CCI still hasn't recovered from Friday's selloff

Hit a high of 597, sitting today at 586. How long do you think this will last with the next LTRO (aka LMFAO) on deck to the tune of $1T fresh Euros being pumped into the system. 

Loud Noises · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:16pm

Flat tax

In my opinion, a flat tax is the only way to make sure that you don't fudge the revenue side of the equation. 15%, or whatever number, of every dollar goes in the revenue bucket. Certain LIMITED benefit programs to help the truly needy would be able to offset the burden on lower income contributors, but they still have to pay 15% when generating income to receive these benefits. (I may regret saying this, but there would be situations where a person ends up net positive with gov't money... just WAY fewer would deserve that than currently qualify.) I work in entertainment and I see it functioning as an agent's fee. Its cut and dry. The gov't is my "agent" to provide for tasks that I am not fit to do alone. That makes way more sense than sliding tax scales, write-offs, deductions and loopholes. If benefits truly need to be provided, they are. But a no exceptions rule makes sure that the revenue side doesn't get screwed up. Then you can truly deal with expenditures; provide what is necessary and cut what isn't.

Of course, this approach only works with the government functioning as intended by our founders. I doubt this system could sustain our modern big brother.

71185208 · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:17pm

I'd vote for you if you lived

I'd vote for you if you lived in my country Turd!

Monedas · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:19pm

Iran nukes Tel Aviv ?

Gold unchanged to slightly lower in lack luster trading ? Monedas 2012 Fantasy Fatwa Headlines ! i.e. Keep on hoarding, my Truckers ! devil

Justin · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:20pm


Got this message when trying to view the last page of comments on the previous post. Just a heads up to the mods and anyone else, guessing a link was submitted in one of the comments to viralswagger.net maybe?

Also, just came across this gem on Business Insider regarding Buffett and his view on gold. Anyone actually believe he truly feels this way or is now just a shill for those trying to save the Dollar. Some snippets:

In his excellent investing primer in Fortune (an excerpt of his forthcoming Annual Letter), Warren Buffett devotes a few paragraphs to gold and the fools who worship it.

He also explains why gold is generally a crappy investment, even if its price in dollars goes up from time to time (as it has over the past decade).

The cube of gold will produce nothing in the next hundred years (or, for that matter, thousands of years).

The cube of gold will not pay you interest or dividends, and it won't grow earnings.

You can fondle the cube, but it won't respond.


Forget gold you fools, buy FACEBOOK!!!!

Silver_investor · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:21pm

Will it ever end?

Will the Cartel ever be broken? That is, will we ever see true price discovery in gold and silver? 

Bsong · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:21pm

My support for Turd is official

Need a photo with your hat on Turd

ClinkinKY · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:22pm

While looking for something else, found this...

Conspiracy VS Reality

For those of you trying to convince difficult-to-budge people who are turned off by flowery language and aggressive accusations, I submit the following, brief summary of Precious Metals fundamentals and the nefarious forces aiming to undermine the natural forces of economic Mother Nature by suppressing their prices.

For the past 6,000 years, gold has been universally utilized as money, while all fiat currency systems have since failed. Few people realize the U.S. itself has already lost two currencies to hyperinflation: the Continental during the Revolutionary War and the Confederate dollar during the Civil War. Moreover, Abraham Lincoln’s “Greenback” dollar was on its way to hyperinflation when the Civil War ended – in other words, with another year or two of war, it, too, likely would have been destroyed.

If the Federal Reserve, ECB, BOE, BOJ, an

Read more:https://blog.milesfranklin.com/conspiracy-vs-reality

Fred Hayek · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:28pm

Interesting stuff, Turd. Thanks

I wanted to also bring a piece from the Naked Capitalism site to folks' attention. It's an interview with a greek (I think) economist named Yanis Varoufakis. He says some very interesting things about the structure of global capital flows pre and post Nixon's completing of the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971.


I'm ambivalent about that site. The woman who runs it goes by Yves Smith (get it, not Adam Smith but . . . . alright, I'll stop) and she wrote a pretty good book called EConned. But some of the people who post in the comments section will drive you to tears. It's pretty good on arcane banking issues. 

mendolover · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:28pm

Feel better Turd!

Give that liver a good flush and feel better Turd! 

Monedas · Feb 13, 2012 - 12:29pm

True equality flat tax !

A true flat tax isn't a "flate rate" tax ! Monedas believes in a true, flat tax.....everyone pays the same !!! Monedas 2012 All government services are contracted and paid for like any other human activity ! devil

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