Turd 2012

Mon, Feb 13, 2012 - 11:40am

Sorry for the late start this morning. The Turd is just a bit under the weather and moving somewhat slowly. I've noticed, however, that our "markets" don't seem to care. They always seem to go about their business whether or not I'm at my post.

The world is in turmoil but you'd never know it by looking at PM prices. Athens is burning. Civil War in Syria with Russia on one side and the U.S (and Al-Qaeda) on the other. Israel is killing Iranian nuclear scientists and Iran is attacking Israeli diplomats while the U.S prepares forces for the likely event of war. Stocks in America are up almost 20% over the past 6 weeks, all on the back of a falling unemployment rate that was statistically manufactured from whole cloth by bureaucrats at the BLS and a a surge in price by a company (Apple) which now constitutes about 25% of the NASDAQ. It's all so surreal that it's difficult to coherently comment so I'm going to keep this somewhat brief.

First up, the metals. To me, it's clear from the CoT numbers that the Cartels are not going to allow prices to continue much higher from here. There will still be rallies and silver, in particular, looks pretty sturdy above $33...but...with EE short interest growing and momentum slowing, it only appears to be a matter of time before we get a dip in price for both. As you can see on the charts below, if The Forces of Darkness can break some resistance levels, both metals have room to fall before finding rather obvious support zones. Let's see if it happens. For now, I'm not buying anything as I wait for a chance to BTFD.

I hope by now you've had a chance to read the post from Saturday regarding OI, the CoT and lease rates. I'll be watching the silver lease rates very closely this week for signs of an impending raid. As mentioned in that post, the magic level for raids seems to be -0.40%. After falling by a basis point of Friday, the 1-month rate currently stands at -0.31%. Turdite "margaritatime" dug into the internet to find a post written almost 10 years ago by Uncle Ted. If you've ever wondered about lease rates....what they are and how they work...I suggest you take a few minutes to read this excellent summary:


Our friend, Jeff Nielson, has written a brief, new article that seems to fit on well with this post. It's nothing earth-shattering but it's some quality reassurance at a time when everything seems so upside down:


Lastly, more on the impending war with Iran. First, there's this:


then there's this:


And, finally, there's this.


Not surprisingly, crude is UP on all of this at sitting right at $100 as I type. Be cautious out there and stay diligent. Something tells me that this is going to be a long week. TF

p.s. Turdite "cris" has decided that yours truly would make a much better president than any of the current crop of dorks and losers. In all candor, I have to agree. To that end, Cris has nominated "Turd Ferguson" for president on the website https://www.americanselect.org/ If you go there and sign up, you'll be able to search for my name and then add your support. My platform is:

  • Elimination of The Fed and a return to a gold standard
  • Dramatic cuts in federal spending
  • Significant reduction in overseas military presence
  • Flat tax of 15% on all individuals and corporations
  • Amend Constitution for term limits of six years for President, Senators and Congress.

Now I just have to find a veep. Maybe Rachel McAdams? No, she's Canadian. I suppose Charlize Theron is out, too, as she's South African. Nuts. Gonna have to give that one some thought.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Juan Moment
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:44am


endlessmountain lays it out:

Feb 13, 2012 - 11:44am


Wow... I'm not a virgin anymore!!

Ok, for all you out there who find the "First" post thing tiring, go ahead and trash me.

For all you others, woo hoo!!


Feb 13, 2012 - 11:49am

60 Minutes

Don't know if anyone posted this but Indians are getting it and look like they have for centuries.


Be Prepared
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:50am

UGA & the Long Bond (TLT) Correlation

The average American family will have spent around $4,155 this year on filling up their tanks or about 8.4% of their income. This is the highest amount spent since 1981 and more of the same could be on the horizon. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for crude oil will climb more than 1.4% in 2012, with China requiring more than a 10th of that amount used. As emerging markets continue to expand at rapid paces, this demand will only get larger over the next few decades.

The second problem lies within the fact that the majority of American refineries use more expensive Brent benchmaked crude oil to produce gasoline. As protests in the Middle East and falling production from Europe has kept Brent prices high, refiners in the Gulf have had to pay more, in order to get access to feed stocks. This has ultimately driven prices for a variety of distillates upwards.

I have already predicted in an earlier post that we will see over $4 per gallon gas in May/June 2012... mainly due to seasonal highs. How though is this effecting the flow of money? Is the increased allocation of discretionary spending effecting the long bond. Both times below when UGA hit the 10% relative mark an increase in TLT by at least 25% relative to UGA followed within 6 months.

I always post in the old thread during a thread change....

Kevin C
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:50am

Link to article on returning to the gold standard

Here is the link: https://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/13/lets-return-to-the-gold-standa I hope it works. Good article.

Congratulations Daddy-O on losing your virginity.

Feb 13, 2012 - 11:53am
Dr G
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:54am

@Be Prepared, that gasoline

@Be Prepared, that gasoline figure is astounding. 8.5% of their income spent on filling the cars. I was completely unaware of that. I'm in a bit of shock after thinking about it.

I thought we would see $4+ gas last summer. I've learned that the markets are so rigged that it's impossible to predict these things.

Great post.

Colonel Angus
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:55am

Turd's Veep

I guess Daniela Cambone is out also...what about Ron Paul? I know he doesn't have the looks of the others, but he sure does have the ideals and the ideas.

Feb 13, 2012 - 11:56am

Turd for President!!

Thanks for the update - But, I thought there was already a big Turd in the White House!

Of course, I like our Turd's platform much better and his candidates for VP sound enticing.

Dr G
Feb 13, 2012 - 11:56am

So Obama wants to spend 3.8

So Obama wants to spend 3.8 trillion $ in 2013. That's his plan?


EDITED: I'm voting for Turd! Hands down. I do wish there was so frozen yogurt on Turd's campaign platform, however.

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