Not Buying Yet - Gold and Silver To Dip A Little More?

Fri, Feb 10, 2012 - 11:01am

Holy Toledo! How far would the metals be down today if margins had been raised instead of lowered??

I'll try to touch upon several items this morning but I'm getting a bit of a late start so I'll try to exercise a little brevity. First up, our overnight beatdown courtesy of The Goons at The LBMA. As Ranting Andy has so diligently chronicled, The Goons like to hit gold nearly every single night at exactly 3:00 a.m. EST. This happens regularly, often 3-4 times per week and on the nights The Goons don't attack, The Monkeys on the Comex usually pick up the ball for them the next day. Sometimes, just to throw us off of their scent and, perhaps, keep us on our toes, The Goons throw us a little change-up. Last night was just such an event. Check out the chart below:

Now, maybe you're thinking to yourself: "Well, Turd, you're the one who says the ticks are being ruled right now by changes in the POSX. Did you happen to think that maybe the ongoing Pig bounce may have had something to do with this?" Oh, yah. Hadn't thought about that...

Hmmmmm. I'll just leave it there and let you draw your own conclusions.

Anyway, between the Globex attack of yesterday afternoon and the regular Goon beatdown shown above, gold found itself perched precariously near support of 1705 earlier today when The Pig shot higher on this "news":

So now The Pig is bouncing and the metals are under pressure. Frankly, I'm looking for this to continue. As this chart of The POSX shows, The Pig could easily rally a little higher from here and a further rally will only provide the impetus for The Cartels to gun the engines a bit.

I've been mentioning all week that I thought a 5% correction in gold was possible and I'm still holding out some hope. IF The Cartel can successfully break gold through 1705, they'll surely be able to trip some stops and gold will quickly fall through 1700. I expect a great buying opportunity near 1680. Not only is there technical support there, that level would also represent an almost perfect 5% correction. (1767 x .95 = 1679)

Silver remains a champ. It bounced back strongly again this morning and has been trading well on the Comex all week. This is very encouraging. Remember, we have a lot of fun with acronyms around here but the FUBM is truly a very strong technical indicator. It shows a pervasive, underlying demand that emerges in price dips brought about by EE or other selling. As you can see on the chart below, silver has incredible support between 33 and 33.20. On the 4-hour chart below, you can see that it has dipped into that range at least 15 times over the past 13 trading days. If a Pig rally can briefly drive gold below 1705, perhaps a dip in silver would develop that could take it to 32.80. Again, I hope it does because 32.80 and 1680 would certainly seem to be compelling buying opportunities.

A few odds and ends before we wrap up:

Lots of questions surrounding the timing and rationale behind the CME dropping margins on gold, silver, platinum and copper. Always remember and never forget that the CME owns the Comex and, in my opinion, they actively collude with The Cartel to suppress and manipulate the prices of paper precious metal. They are the dastardly C/C/C. Additionally, the CME has proven once and for all by their shameless handling of the MFingGlobal fiasco that their only real interest is in protecting themselves. They couldn't give a damn about investors, traders or clearing firms. All that matters to the CME is the CME's bottom line. So, ask yourself: What's in this for the CME? Why would they lower margins now? Answer those questions and you'll find your explanation for the margin drop yesterday.

If you haven't yet done so, please take the time to read the latest from Chris Martenson. At a time when fiat currencies are bouncing all over the place, this will help you to keep your "eye on the ball".

Our pal, Gonzo, has written an insightful new missive. It's worth reading. Keep in mind, however, the analysis that you heard here first. Namely, that this "settlement" is nothing but covert way for the Fed to funnel money indirectly to the cash-strapped states. The states receive $26B from the TBTF banks, money that the TBTF banks will be receiving from The Fed.

Buried in the comments section of the previous post was this beauty by loyal Turdite, Green Lantern, who apparently doesn't sleep much. Reposted here because you should read it:

It's Friday so that means we get another CoT report this afternoon. Do not look for any positive surprises again this week. For the period from the close of 1/31 to the close of 2/7 both metals were down a little in price but both metals saw their open interest expand by 2-3%. Expect to see that the bank short positions in each will have expanded while spec long increases were negated in the total by bank long closures. This would not be bullish. The action this week since Tuesday has been better and would seem to be setting up the bottoms that I am looking for early next week.

And, lastly, it has come to my attention that Judge Napolitano's program "Freedom Watch" has been canceled by Fox Business News. This is truly unfortunate. Though many will ascribe nefarious motives for the cancelation, in TV it's all about the ratings. If a network thinks they can get higher ratings with something new and subsequently fleece their advertisers for more dollars, they're going to cut and move on every time. It would still be worth your time to support The Judge, however. Apparently this woman, Irena Briganti, is the one responsible for making the programming decisions at FBN. I've already sent her an email, politely asking her to reconsider her decision. If you'd like to do the same, her address is:


On the bright side, I've been trying to track down The Judge for weeks, hoping to secure a podcast with him. Maybe now he has a little more free time, I'll finally get it done.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be sure to keep some dry powder for early next week. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 11, 2012 - 11:59am

Fidelity, Fidelitrade, IRA and Gold

First off: Fidelity is a the brokerage I'm sure you've all heard of. Fidelitrade is a precious metals seller/buyer/storage company in Delaware. Supposedly separate companies, but Fidelity allows you to link your segregated storage at Fidelitrade. I can see all the AGE's, Gold bars, Silver bars I've purchased as portfolio line items when I go on-line at and get the cost basis, performance and all that other stuff just as if it were an equity or fund. Pretty cool. Plus, a biggie: you can have them send you the stuff any time you want. All in all I've been very happy with Fidelity over the years. When I asked about liquidating some of my portfolio for metals, I *never* got any discouragement, just help. They actually treat you like your money *is* your money to do what you want with.

Anyway, the point of this post. I recently asked about my IRA account and precious metals. They told me I can pretty much do the same thing: liquidate some/all of my managed IRA into a self-directed IRA. When the cash is available in that account I can call in a trade for any of the Gold, Platinum, Silver that Fideltrade offers for sale. I just did the liquidation last week. Next week, when the self-directed IRA is funded, I'll buy some metals. Then, when I go on line at I'll see the metals I purchased as line items in my new IRA! Pretty cool!

I thought I'd post this because I've seen the question come up a lot about investing IRAs in PMs. Fidelity makes it pretty easy. Also check out You can get 2 types of accounts: segregated and pooled. Naturally segregated costs more maintenance because they maintain a box with your name on it. I opted for segregated.

Edit: Of course, there's still counter party risk doing this if Fidelity ever exploded into an MF Golbal type of mess. I also have PMs I hold directly (well, that is until they were lost in my kayak accident). This is just another option for PM investing and I think its pretty safe as far as it goes....

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:14pm

Margin decrease in Metals

I posted the video by Brother John F yesterday, he studies the margins in great detail all the way back to 2004.

His sentiment is that CME is seeing the riding on the wall, recognizing they are on the way to redundancy. The MF Global was a huge blow to them. He also point out that that the lows of 2008 crash did not have any margin decreases. They are losing lots of business as people take their business elsewhere, because obviously CME can't be trusted.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:14pm
Feb 11, 2012 - 12:30pm

MF Global Trustee Sees $1.6 Billion Customer Shortfall

MF Global commodity customers whose cash vanished when the firm collapsed last year are owed $1.6 billion — up significantly from previous estimates — the trustee tasked with recovering the money said on Friday.

The revised figure reflects growing concerns that the trustee will not be able to claw back $700 million in customer money trapped overseas. Until now, the trustee did not include the $700 million when projecting the shortfall, hoping to avoid a battle with MF Global’s British arm, which is holding the customer money.

But now the trustee, James W. Giddens, has acknowledged that he is making little headway in recovering the money from KPMG, the court-appointed administrator for MF Global’s British subsidiary. That money, Mr. Giddens said, was held for American clients who traded on foreign exchanges.

This story was posted on The New York Times website and the link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:31pm

Fed Playing Favorites With Wall Street in Secretive Bond Deals:

The Federal Reserve secretly selected a handful of banks to bid for debt securities acquired by taxpayers in the U.S. bailout of American International Group Inc., and the rest of Wall Street is wondering what happened to the transparency the central bank said it was committed to upholding.

“The exclusivity by which the process has shut out smaller dealers is a little un-American,” said David Castillo, head of sales and trading at broker Further Lane Securities LP in San Francisco, who said he would have liked to participate. “It seems odd that if you want to get the best possible price that it wouldn’t be open to anyone who wants to put in the most competitive bid.”

After inviting more than 40 broker-dealers to take part in a series of auctions last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York asked only Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Credit Suisse Group AG and Barclays Plc to bid on the full $13.2 billion of bonds offered in two sales over the past month. The central bank switched to a less open process after traders blamed the regular, more public disposals for damaging prices in 2011. This week, Goldman Sachs bought $6.2 billion of bonds in an auction.

from the Bloomberg is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:33pm

Gross vs. Buffett on Treasuries

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross increased his holdings of Treasuries to the highest level since July 2010, while billionaire investor Warren Buffett called them “dangerous.”

“They are among the most dangerous of assets,” Buffett said yesterday in an adaptation of his annual letter to shareholders on Fortune magazine’s website. “Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal.”

Gross boosted U.S. government and Treasury debt to 38 percent of assets in Pimco’s $250.5 billion Total Return Fund, the world’s biggest bond fund. The position in January climbed from 30 percent in December, according to a report on the company’s website yesterday.

Bloomberg story ...and the link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:34pm

Is This The End of Wall Street As They Knew It?

The crash four years ago was shocking enough to the financial class. But what is happening on Wall Street now is even more terrifying. No doubt the economy itself—the crisis in Europe, the effects of the tsunami in Japan, America’s sputtering recovery—has played a large part in the financial industry’s struggles. But even the most stubborn economies improve eventually. The bigger issues are structural. The Dodd-Frank financial-­reform act, much maligned, has already begun to change the shape of the financial system—even before a number of its major provisions are proposed to go into full effect this coming July. Banks are working hard to interpret Dodd-Frank’s provisions in a way most favorable to them—and repealing Dodd-Frank is a key piece of Mitt Romney’s campaign platform.

With all the major banks unable to wager their own funds on big bets, there’s a growing sense that the money that was being made during the Bush boom won’t be back. “The government has strangled the financial system,” banking analyst Dick Bove told me recently. “We’ve basically castrated these companies. They can’t borrow as much as they used to borrow.”

Of course, described a little less colorfully, reducing the risk in the system at a cost of a certain amount of the banks’ profits was precisely what the government was striving for. All this has meant that Wall Street’s traders have found themselves on the wrong end of the market—a predicament that many of them have never seen before. Before the crash, when compensation slid, the banks risked seeing their top talent run for the doors to rival firms or hedge funds. Now, with a glut of hedge funds and an industry-wide belt-tightening, bank chiefs are calling their star traders’ bluffs. “If you’re really unhappy, just leave,” Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman bluntly told Bloomberg TV a few days after his bank announced its meager bonus numbers.

From New York Magazine......and the link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:36pm

The World from Berlin: 'Without a New Beginning, Athens Is Lost'

The European Union is demanding even greater sacrifices from Greece, despite the deal reached by politicians in Athens on Thursday. Facing more painful cuts, Greek citizens are back on the streets as resentment boils over. German commentators say it's time to finally face the truth.

"Whether the resulting conclusion is that Greece can no longer be saved from bankruptcy, or whether it should be persuaded -- or forced -- to leave the euro zone, is ultimately a question of math. Which option will end up being more expensive for Greece and its public and private-sector creditors? No finance minister knows the answer, and no economist can calculate it reliably. This uncertainty is deadly, both for the markets and for countries. It must be ended quickly."

This story was posted at The link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:37pm

Is Portugal Next? - German Finance Minister Suggests Lisbon Bail

First Greece and then Portugal? That is what many skeptics of Europe's handling of the ongoing debt crisis have long been saying. And on Thursday evening in Brussels, they appear to have received high level confirmation.

In a video clip apparently made without his knowledge at the meeting of euro-zone finance ministers, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told his Portuguese counterpart Vitor Gaspar that Berlin would be willing to make adjustments to the Portugal bailout package. It was the first time that a high level euro-zone official had admitted that such changes may become necessary.

"If then there would be a necessity for an adjustment of the Portugal (program), we would be ready to do that," Schäuble says in the video, which was posted onYouTube and on the website of the Portuguese television station tvi24. Gaspar responds: "That is much appreciated."

Posted over at the website. The link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:40pm

A New Generation Aims to Revitalize Russia

Russia's young people are growing up with more freedom than ever. Twenty years after the end of communism, the first post-Soviet generation is transforming the country -- whether the once and future president likes it or not.

The Kremlin still uses state-run TV to drive home its propaganda about how Russians should be thankful for the stability they enjoy under Putin. But Russia's youth hardly watches TV anymore. Instead, young Russians spend their time in the free worlds of the Internet, getting their information and organizing through blogs, Facebook and Twitter. For the first time in generations, an entire segment of Russians can steer clear of government propaganda, depriving the Kremlin of control over large parts of their lives.

This is something new, and it has already led to a change in values and a new view of society. As diverse as they are, Putin's children are no longer afraid. They stand behind their ideals. They dream of democracy and a free press. Some envision careers as politicians or fashion journalists, while others dream of a nationalist Russia. But does the Putin generation also have the strength to break away from the top-down paradigm in place since the czars -- and to change the country from below?

Posted over at ...and the link is here.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:43pm

I am soooo going to regret

I am soooo going to regret this but the post by vamoose1 got me thinking

So when do things change in a big way? My money is on the third Thurs. in May.

If I'm wrong, I'll likely be relegated to nobodyville but that's nothing new since I'm a stacker and nobody locally was listening to me in 2001 either, so, so what.

If I'm right, perhaps I'll tell you how I know, but not until then.

EOTWAWKI but not THE end.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:50pm

Obama Volt LOL that was

Obama Volt

LOL that was hilarious - we can do anything with UNLIMITED financial resources LOL no sh*t sherlock.

Hook Obama up to the volt and plug it in. Exponentially increase savings as no doubt many would get a charge out of it.

Mariposa de Oro NW VIEW
Feb 11, 2012 - 12:53pm

@NW View

The Pepsi generation is something else, is it not? I had a run in with one yesterday. He's pretty smart but his head is filled with propaganda. I'm still stunned by it. He thinks I'm a complete idiot because I foolishly think I can survive the chaos and rampant murder that would have occurred had not the banks been bailed out. What he doesn't understand is that creating tens of trillions of dollars out of thin air hasn't fixed anything and that collapse is coming. He thinks the world will go Mad Max without banker bailouts and we'll all die; a stupid woman such as myself is totally incapable of defending herself. I guess he figures I'm as brain dead as he is. I could go on and on about this guy. He listens to NPR and knows ALL. LOL The older folks you mention could teach that arrogant snot nosed child a thing or two.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:57pm

Interpol and NDAA, A Marriage Made In Hell?

Interpol Arrests Saudi Journalist In Malaysia Wanted For Insulting “Prophet” Mohammed On Twitter, Faces Death Sentence…

Update to this post.

(Guardian) — Interpol has been accused of abusing its powers after Saudi Arabia used the organisation’s red notice system to get a journalist arrested in Malaysia for insulting the Prophet Muhammad.

Police in Kuala Lumpur said Hamza Kashgari, 23, was detained at the airport “following a request made to us by Interpol” the international police cooperation agency, on behalf of the Saudi authorities.

Kashgari, a newspaper columnist, fled Saudi Arabia after posting a tweet on the prophet’s birthday that sparked more than 30,000 responses and several death threats. The posting, which was later deleted, read: “I have loved things about you and I have hated things about you and there is a lot I don’t understand about you … I will not pray for you.”

More than 13,000 people joined a Facebook page titled “The Saudi People Demand the Execution of Hamza Kashgari”.

Clerics in Saudi Arabia called for him to be charged with apostasy, a religious offence punishable by death. Reports suggest that the Malaysian authorities intend to return him to his native country.

Kashgari’s detention has triggered criticism by human rights groups of Malaysia’s decision to arrest the journalist and of Interpol’s cooperation in the process.

Feb 11, 2012 - 12:58pm


Buddha Princess wrote:
His sentiment is that CME is seeing the riding on the wall ...

Riding on the wall would definately be something everyone, as well as CME, would be interested in seeing!

But, I think the correct term is "writing on the wall." The proverbial phrase arises as an allusion to Belshazzar's feast, recorded in Daniel chapter 5, at which a ghostly finger appeared in the banqueting hall and wrote this on the wall:


The prophet Daniel, summoned to interpret the writing on the wall, told Belshazzar that things were definately going south for him and his kingdom. And so, to see the writing on the wall means to realize that an approaching doom can no longer be avoided, as it is coming via divine will which no one can resist.

In our case, the allusion is probably correct in its fullest sense.

Reply to Margin decrease in Metals

Mariposa de Oro ClinkinKY
Feb 11, 2012 - 1:23pm



I remember something about the Hopey-Changey One authorizing new powers for Interpol WITHIN the USA. I think it was done via EO and within a month or three of his being given the keys to the kingdom. I wondered why that was done. Could this be a hint of what's to come?

NW VIEW Mariposa de Oro
Feb 11, 2012 - 1:23pm

@ Mariposa de Oro and Boomers

YES, YES you are correct, the older folks are teaching the Pepsi generation and the flower children along with the California Dreamers of the 60's how to survive. The normal work ethics we grew up with in the 50's was to seek out any type of work to make a two bit piece. Mow lawns, peal bark, pick fir cones, pick strawberries and blackberries, stack fire wood, pick up beer and pop bottles for return fees (1 and 3 cents each). Remember those days when we worked our way through high school and Jr. college with part or full time jobs and zero aid? I saw the real trouble when my classmates and part of the family headed for California in their hippie vans. I had never seen any drugs nor heard of anyone ever using any until college. Now in these days, the doctors make sure that everyone is on them, even in grade school. Dad put me in a Catholic grade school in 1953 and the nuns helped us to never need any drugs and no one had ADD or anything else. They just took us out of class and into a private room and smoked our shorts until we were fixed. It worked really well and is needed today.

We will need to have the government create a new protected class of people under job discrimination. We can call them -PBBWNLTBOS - (Post baby boomers who never learned the basics of survival). This will bring in more votes for the majority and help with more money printing. JMO

Feb 11, 2012 - 1:50pm

@Xeno RE:I am soooo going to regret

Oh, come on! It's fine to make a prediction, but please share your thoughts on why. It's ok to stick your neck out, and be wrong on the events and/or the timing. Nobody knows how all this will play out, but by considering all possible outcomes, we may be better prepared.

So why will we have EOTWAWKI on the third Thursday of May? Beats the second Tuesday of next week. LOL. I am genuinely interested in hearing your thesis.

Mariposa de Oro NW VIEW
Feb 11, 2012 - 2:03pm

NW View...

I don't remember the 50's much. I didn't come along until 1962 BUT I was raised with that ethic. Both of my parents are immigrants. My mother from Peru and my dad from Italy. Dad came over in 1927, not speaking a word of English. Growing up in a NY tenement slum made him on tough dude. He's going to be 91 next month. He's physically on the frail side but just as ornery as ever. Drives my mom nuts, lol. Mom's family had money back before WWII. Her dad owned a chain of gas stations in Lima. Their fortune took a hit during the war but the last straw was when the leftists took over. Her father used the last of the family's wealth to come to America. Needless to say, my mother is horrified by what she's sees happening, but at 81, her options are limited. They've been in SoCal since 1961 and will not leave even though, mom, at least, knows what's going on. Dad is high on the Hopium, lol. Hey, he's earned it. I worry for them but they won't let me help.

Feb 11, 2012 - 7:43pm

@SilverRunNW ^^

Sadly the requested information is not available. It was destroyed in a horrific 1967 boating accident. The only piece of information I could cling to through the trauma was the third Thurs. in May, not accounting for leap years and such. Could be the fourth since this year there are five in May before we all walk away.

But hey, a fart dart would probably work too.

Feb 12, 2012 - 11:52am

Buying Opportunity Coming?

My son sent me this interesting article from Seking Alpha. It has a very interesting video showing and explaining the Demark system count of 9@13

There are two possible ways to interpret the European Central Bank's (ECB) program which offers unlimited three-year loans to European banks:

  1. The ECB will print as much money as needed to save the euro.
  2. The ECB wants to flood the financial system with liquidity to prepare for a hard default in Greece.

Fitch Ratings today reiterated its view that Greece will default even with the rescue package. Excerpts from a Reuters article on the current state of affairs in Greece are below:

Greek workers went on strike against austerity measures on Friday, docking ships and halting public transport, hours after eurozone finance ministers said Athens needed to make more cuts to convince them to release a financial bailout.

The euro and shares fell on Friday, reflecting concern over a possible failure in the debt restructuring after the European Union and International Monetary Fund indicated that a hard-won Greek deal on spending cuts and wage cuts did not go far enough.

Before they release more aid, Greece's financial backers have demanded parliamentary ratification of the new austerity package this weekend, the identification of a further 325 million euros of spending reductions by next Wednesday and a strong commitment from all parties to implement the reforms.

Even the early stages of new bull markets experience corrections. After surging off the March 2009 lows, the weekly chart of the S&P 500 experienced what is known as a "perfected sell setup" in DeMark speak. Following the sell setup signal in early June 2009, the S&P 500 corrected 9.1% in the next six weeks. At today's close, we should see a perfected sell setup on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index. We also haveextended charts in Europe as measured by indicators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index). The video below expands on the rationale behind increasing odds of a correction in risk assets. DeMark indicators were developed by Tom DeMark of Market Studies, LLC. Video contents:

  1. 00:00 - 04:15Market outlook
  2. 04:15 - 14:26 DeMark indicators for the S&P 500 and Germany
  3. 14:26 - 19:31 CCM Market Models

If and how the markets come down will help determine if we have a buying opportunity or a resumption of a deflationary bear market. Given the current readings of proprietary CCM market models, the odds currently favor a correction followed by more liquidity-induced upside (a.k.a. a buying opportunity). The bearish case could follow the "decoupling path" taken by emerging markets in 2008. Our approach will be flexible based on market action. During an orderly pullback, we will consider taking a stake in numerous markets, including Germany (EWG), gold (GLD), silver (SLV), agriculture (DBA) and Australia (EWA)

Feb 13, 2012 - 9:12am

$10 raid to start the crimex action

Man - what a bunch of scumbags. EUR/USD up 80 pips, gold down. $10 beatdown to start the day. Volume... pathetic so far. Specs stepping up to the plate at 1720.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

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