Not Buying Yet - Gold and Silver To Dip A Little More?

Fri, Feb 10, 2012 - 11:01am

Holy Toledo! How far would the metals be down today if margins had been raised instead of lowered??

I'll try to touch upon several items this morning but I'm getting a bit of a late start so I'll try to exercise a little brevity. First up, our overnight beatdown courtesy of The Goons at The LBMA. As Ranting Andy has so diligently chronicled, The Goons like to hit gold nearly every single night at exactly 3:00 a.m. EST. This happens regularly, often 3-4 times per week and on the nights The Goons don't attack, The Monkeys on the Comex usually pick up the ball for them the next day. Sometimes, just to throw us off of their scent and, perhaps, keep us on our toes, The Goons throw us a little change-up. Last night was just such an event. Check out the chart below:

Now, maybe you're thinking to yourself: "Well, Turd, you're the one who says the ticks are being ruled right now by changes in the POSX. Did you happen to think that maybe the ongoing Pig bounce may have had something to do with this?" Oh, yah. Hadn't thought about that...

Hmmmmm. I'll just leave it there and let you draw your own conclusions.

Anyway, between the Globex attack of yesterday afternoon and the regular Goon beatdown shown above, gold found itself perched precariously near support of 1705 earlier today when The Pig shot higher on this "news":

So now The Pig is bouncing and the metals are under pressure. Frankly, I'm looking for this to continue. As this chart of The POSX shows, The Pig could easily rally a little higher from here and a further rally will only provide the impetus for The Cartels to gun the engines a bit.

I've been mentioning all week that I thought a 5% correction in gold was possible and I'm still holding out some hope. IF The Cartel can successfully break gold through 1705, they'll surely be able to trip some stops and gold will quickly fall through 1700. I expect a great buying opportunity near 1680. Not only is there technical support there, that level would also represent an almost perfect 5% correction. (1767 x .95 = 1679)

Silver remains a champ. It bounced back strongly again this morning and has been trading well on the Comex all week. This is very encouraging. Remember, we have a lot of fun with acronyms around here but the FUBM is truly a very strong technical indicator. It shows a pervasive, underlying demand that emerges in price dips brought about by EE or other selling. As you can see on the chart below, silver has incredible support between 33 and 33.20. On the 4-hour chart below, you can see that it has dipped into that range at least 15 times over the past 13 trading days. If a Pig rally can briefly drive gold below 1705, perhaps a dip in silver would develop that could take it to 32.80. Again, I hope it does because 32.80 and 1680 would certainly seem to be compelling buying opportunities.

A few odds and ends before we wrap up:

Lots of questions surrounding the timing and rationale behind the CME dropping margins on gold, silver, platinum and copper. Always remember and never forget that the CME owns the Comex and, in my opinion, they actively collude with The Cartel to suppress and manipulate the prices of paper precious metal. They are the dastardly C/C/C. Additionally, the CME has proven once and for all by their shameless handling of the MFingGlobal fiasco that their only real interest is in protecting themselves. They couldn't give a damn about investors, traders or clearing firms. All that matters to the CME is the CME's bottom line. So, ask yourself: What's in this for the CME? Why would they lower margins now? Answer those questions and you'll find your explanation for the margin drop yesterday.

If you haven't yet done so, please take the time to read the latest from Chris Martenson. At a time when fiat currencies are bouncing all over the place, this will help you to keep your "eye on the ball".

Our pal, Gonzo, has written an insightful new missive. It's worth reading. Keep in mind, however, the analysis that you heard here first. Namely, that this "settlement" is nothing but covert way for the Fed to funnel money indirectly to the cash-strapped states. The states receive $26B from the TBTF banks, money that the TBTF banks will be receiving from The Fed.

Buried in the comments section of the previous post was this beauty by loyal Turdite, Green Lantern, who apparently doesn't sleep much. Reposted here because you should read it:

It's Friday so that means we get another CoT report this afternoon. Do not look for any positive surprises again this week. For the period from the close of 1/31 to the close of 2/7 both metals were down a little in price but both metals saw their open interest expand by 2-3%. Expect to see that the bank short positions in each will have expanded while spec long increases were negated in the total by bank long closures. This would not be bullish. The action this week since Tuesday has been better and would seem to be setting up the bottoms that I am looking for early next week.

And, lastly, it has come to my attention that Judge Napolitano's program "Freedom Watch" has been canceled by Fox Business News. This is truly unfortunate. Though many will ascribe nefarious motives for the cancelation, in TV it's all about the ratings. If a network thinks they can get higher ratings with something new and subsequently fleece their advertisers for more dollars, they're going to cut and move on every time. It would still be worth your time to support The Judge, however. Apparently this woman, Irena Briganti, is the one responsible for making the programming decisions at FBN. I've already sent her an email, politely asking her to reconsider her decision. If you'd like to do the same, her address is:


On the bright side, I've been trying to track down The Judge for weeks, hoping to secure a podcast with him. Maybe now he has a little more free time, I'll finally get it done.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be sure to keep some dry powder for early next week. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 10, 2012 - 3:49pm

striking firefighters vs. riot police

These cops remind me of wet cats.

Firefighters vs Cops: Striking fire officers soak PM office in Brussels
Feb 10, 2012 - 3:52pm

Short LCS report

He is still charging $1.50 premium for generic silver bars and rounds, and had plenty of silver. Looked like he had a little more gold than normal also. There were a few Austrian 100 Coronas that really wanted to come home with me, but I just couldn't swing it on this trip.

There are always one or two other customers in the store, so not too crowded.

Have a great weekend everyone! There is a gun show in my area over the weekend, so I saved some fiat for that.

Feb 10, 2012 - 3:54pm

Foggy Friday

The hamsters are running
Yet the Wheels are stalling
Are we falling?
Is the debt monger calling?

No power to the pumps
The house is flooding
Is it too late to save my daughter
From the rising water?

Don't see much intrest here
Can't find intrest there
Is there any intrest anywhere?
Do our leaders even care?

It's time to pick a door
Before we fall through the floor
But I've already met Alice once before
There's 1, 2, or 3
Yet they always force us to choose war.

Buy silver, buy gold
A power to behold
Put your life in God's hand
And watch evil fold.

There's only one bell
And it tolls for them
But it will be sweet to my ear
To once again hear freedom ring.

There's yet again a change of season
Let us call this one Truth and Reason.

Feb 10, 2012 - 3:54pm

@Lots of Beans - What to do?

Well when TF says it's going lower, that doesn't mean it's going through the floor - silver down maybe a $1 or $2, gold maybe down $20-50... if you have 10K to spend you have to think how many more oz can you get if silver goes down $1 and gold $50 - that's about 9 oz difference on a 10K purchase and less than a 1/4 oz difference in gold... in the long run, $1 this way or that in silver or even $50 this way or that in gold won't make much of a difference.

Feb 10, 2012 - 3:55pm

Re: Food Storage - Rotate the old to the food pantry please!

Some of our peanut butter and other perishables will be expiring in Dec 2012 or Jan 2013, we purchased supplies with 24 months viability on perishables, or 7 years for long term goods, the timing isn't bothering us because in Dec 2012 the food pantry is getting a donation and the warehouse club is getting another purchase :)

Believe me, the food pantry can use gifts like that during the holidays.

Feb 10, 2012 - 3:57pm

Deep Breaths pinning

You are ahead of 90%of the rest of the people in the US right you know there is a problem.Baby steps first i just put up a post just a little while ago @2:45 read it and if you have any questions let me know


Feb 10, 2012 - 4:01pm


I think the pivot of anybody's plan is the undefinable of how bat shit crazy other people will get.

If there's a war then all bets are off. If economic collapse, or reset, a couple months food, some cash on hand, and other items from Turd's store should be enough while we wait for the engine of commerce get up and running again.

They can crash financials, they don't grow food, repair my roof, or make my clothes. The wheels of commerce won't be destroyed, just put on hold.

Feb 10, 2012 - 4:02pm


Man, you are prepared! My sole preparation is building up my lower back so I can run stooped over through the sewers like those guys in the movie C.H.U.D. (Carnivorous Humanoid Underground Dweller).

Feb 10, 2012 - 4:04pm

Gold to 1900

ArmadaMarkets analyst said in their Sunday weekly market update that gold will will test the 1700 level this week. It hit 1706 today and retraced. This probably means we gonna go higher. They said 1900 could be next stop. I'm just confused whether to buy gold or silver, or both?

Dr G
Feb 10, 2012 - 4:04pm

Ugh, crappy day. At least

Ugh, crappy day. At least silver is hanging in there a bit. This 3 weeks of trying to breach 34 is killing me though.

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