Not Buying Yet - Gold and Silver To Dip A Little More?

Fri, Feb 10, 2012 - 11:01am

Holy Toledo! How far would the metals be down today if margins had been raised instead of lowered??

I'll try to touch upon several items this morning but I'm getting a bit of a late start so I'll try to exercise a little brevity. First up, our overnight beatdown courtesy of The Goons at The LBMA. As Ranting Andy has so diligently chronicled, The Goons like to hit gold nearly every single night at exactly 3:00 a.m. EST. This happens regularly, often 3-4 times per week and on the nights The Goons don't attack, The Monkeys on the Comex usually pick up the ball for them the next day. Sometimes, just to throw us off of their scent and, perhaps, keep us on our toes, The Goons throw us a little change-up. Last night was just such an event. Check out the chart below:


Now, maybe you're thinking to yourself: "Well, Turd, you're the one who says the ticks are being ruled right now by changes in the POSX. Did you happen to think that maybe the ongoing Pig bounce may have had something to do with this?" Oh, yah. Hadn't thought about that...


Hmmmmm. I'll just leave it there and let you draw your own conclusions.

Anyway, between the Globex attack of yesterday afternoon and the regular Goon beatdown shown above, gold found itself perched precariously near support of 1705 earlier today when The Pig shot higher on this "news":

So now The Pig is bouncing and the metals are under pressure. Frankly, I'm looking for this to continue. As this chart of The POSX shows, The Pig could easily rally a little higher from here and a further rally will only provide the impetus for The Cartels to gun the engines a bit.


I've been mentioning all week that I thought a 5% correction in gold was possible and I'm still holding out some hope. IF The Cartel can successfully break gold through 1705, they'll surely be able to trip some stops and gold will quickly fall through 1700. I expect a great buying opportunity near 1680. Not only is there technical support there, that level would also represent an almost perfect 5% correction. (1767 x .95 = 1679)


Silver remains a champ. It bounced back strongly again this morning and has been trading well on the Comex all week. This is very encouraging. Remember, we have a lot of fun with acronyms around here but the FUBM is truly a very strong technical indicator. It shows a pervasive, underlying demand that emerges in price dips brought about by EE or other selling. As you can see on the chart below, silver has incredible support between 33 and 33.20. On the 4-hour chart below, you can see that it has dipped into that range at least 15 times over the past 13 trading days. If a Pig rally can briefly drive gold below 1705, perhaps a dip in silver would develop that could take it to 32.80. Again, I hope it does because 32.80 and 1680 would certainly seem to be compelling buying opportunities.


A few odds and ends before we wrap up:

Lots of questions surrounding the timing and rationale behind the CME dropping margins on gold, silver, platinum and copper. Always remember and never forget that the CME owns the Comex and, in my opinion, they actively collude with The Cartel to suppress and manipulate the prices of paper precious metal. They are the dastardly C/C/C. Additionally, the CME has proven once and for all by their shameless handling of the MFingGlobal fiasco that their only real interest is in protecting themselves. They couldn't give a damn about investors, traders or clearing firms. All that matters to the CME is the CME's bottom line. So, ask yourself: What's in this for the CME? Why would they lower margins now? Answer those questions and you'll find your explanation for the margin drop yesterday.

If you haven't yet done so, please take the time to read the latest from Chris Martenson. At a time when fiat currencies are bouncing all over the place, this will help you to keep your "eye on the ball".

Our pal, Gonzo, has written an insightful new missive. It's worth reading. Keep in mind, however, the analysis that you heard here first. Namely, that this "settlement" is nothing but covert way for the Fed to funnel money indirectly to the cash-strapped states. The states receive $26B from the TBTF banks, money that the TBTF banks will be receiving from The Fed.

Buried in the comments section of the previous post was this beauty by loyal Turdite, Green Lantern, who apparently doesn't sleep much. Reposted here because you should read it:

It's Friday so that means we get another CoT report this afternoon. Do not look for any positive surprises again this week. For the period from the close of 1/31 to the close of 2/7 both metals were down a little in price but both metals saw their open interest expand by 2-3%. Expect to see that the bank short positions in each will have expanded while spec long increases were negated in the total by bank long closures. This would not be bullish. The action this week since Tuesday has been better and would seem to be setting up the bottoms that I am looking for early next week.

And, lastly, it has come to my attention that Judge Napolitano's program "Freedom Watch" has been canceled by Fox Business News. This is truly unfortunate. Though many will ascribe nefarious motives for the cancelation, in TV it's all about the ratings. If a network thinks they can get higher ratings with something new and subsequently fleece their advertisers for more dollars, they're going to cut and move on every time. It would still be worth your time to support The Judge, however. Apparently this woman, Irena Briganti, is the one responsible for making the programming decisions at FBN. I've already sent her an email, politely asking her to reconsider her decision. If you'd like to do the same, her address is:


On the bright side, I've been trying to track down The Judge for weeks, hoping to secure a podcast with him. Maybe now he has a little more free time, I'll finally get it done.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and be sure to keep some dry powder for early next week. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 10, 2012 - 11:09am

Thanks for the timely update,

Thanks for the timely update, Mr. T

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:10am

$1,680?? Here's hoping!!

Time to back up the truck... roll on a dip below $1,700.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:11am

KY Derby Odds-Anyone notice a hunch bet there? ...

...the favorite no less:)


Horse CD M/L
1. Algorithms 8-1
2. Alpha 20-1
3. Battle Hardened 30-1
4. Creative Cause 20-1
5. Discreet Dancer 15-1
6. Dullahan 20-1
7. El Padrino 20-1
8. Empire Way 50-1
9. Ever So Lucky 20-1
10. Fed Biz 20-1
11. Gemologist 20-1
12. Hansen 12-1
13. I’ll Have Another 20-1
14. Junebugred 50-1
15. Liaison 20-1
16. Longview Drive 50-1
17. Midnight Transfer 50-1
18. Mr. Bowling 50-1
19. Out of Bounds 20-1
20. Rousing Sermon 30-1
21. Sabercat 30-1
22. Take Charge Indy 30-1
23. Union Rags 10-1
24. Mutuel field (all others)
Dr Durden
Feb 10, 2012 - 11:12am


Good buy.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:20am


and, Hi-Ho Silver, keep riding!

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:30am

@ Clinkin

I'll take Fed Biz @ 20-1, that horse just don't stop runnin and shits money.

Drop the PM's, the heavy relics need to come down so they can find a new home in KY........keep the Greek scam going and please throw in some Portugal to further ruffle the Euro....bounce this Pig over 82 add in some Coors and wings to the mix now we gots a party.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:41am

Green Lantern's comment - Great Stuff

Loved this little bit from Green Lantern...specifically the bolded.

" Besides Ron Paul, Maybury is subscribed by the Pentagon. Why? Because men of principle and character often know the future before others do. Those type of people are not a dime a dozen and you can't recruit them out of Harvard and Yale. You must seek them out where they exist. The truth is some of those men and women come here. They are many of you. You won't find them in Washington because for the most part men of character do not seek positions of control and authority.  All these men are showing no signs of resignation in giving out the information to those willing to receive it. They continue to hold that space within their publications because of conviction to a greater principle. "

This reminds me how it was ungentlemanly to run for office when our country was founded. If you had to run and persuade people to vote for you, you were considered unfit to be a representative. It was the people who had to persuade those with principles to represent them. My how things have changed. 

This would be a great place to start, unfortunately, people only vote for their pocketbook now.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:41am

I just got notice of this.

I just got notice of this. The VP of sales for Apmex will be hosting a Q&A on their Facebook page at noon EST. The page can be accessed at the link below if you're interested in participating.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:44am

Piggybacking Green Lantern

Green Lantern is right. Who cares about these sudden takedowns in the metals. What is best is for a slow and gradual ascent. Not an upward bloody assault such as the one circa March - April 2011. We all know how those end. Not pretty.

My view is that prices rise. That's the nature of fiat money as history has proven time and time again. Prices will rise. At first I was looking to be a gazillionaire as a result of my investment in metals. Now I am looking for protection from inflated fiat money. If silver rises to $1,000.00 per ounce and bread rises to $119.70 per loaf so be it. I'd rather have the metal in that situation than tinted green paper - every time.

Anywho, I kind of like being the sarcastic blog-clown of turdville. However, I do mull this shit over in my mind a thousand times a day and I feel I have some interesting points to make. Maybe more serious lyrics from my mouth to come. Stranger things have happened.


Feb 10, 2012 - 11:46am

Yes! Made it!

Great site Turd! I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on the economy and I keep reading your blog to get hints on when it will happen. cheers!

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:48am

I remain wildly bullish

Consolidation day. Criminals got it down lower and are starting to cover. Greece is NOT going to default. They are just trying to show the people that they are playing hardball with the troika (and visa-versa).

Greece has already done an in-depth analysis of risk/reward for returning to the drachma. They are going to take the free money from the EU and stall for another year, and *THEN* be out of the EU, when the EU finally says no more bailouts, you are on your own.

Once the deal gets announced, RISK ON in a large way.

Feb 10, 2012 - 11:59am

Anyone else suffering Greek fatigue?

Just caught a cable news clip of rioting in Athens. Again.

I know, I know, give them a break for past service. Greece was a great contributor to civilization, not to mention giving us the concept of democracy.

But what remains is a country that is an empty husk of that long-ago greatness; a land populated by people who expect to get paid well not to work -- either officially or because they have government "jobs" -- and are understandably upset about being dragged into a much smaller welfare state.

So, they're unhappy. We get it. And somehow the Euro crowd would like to crimp that unhappiness and keep their little monetary union intact.

My problem is I've got no say in the matter, yet the ups and downs, the we have a deal, no we don't, are playing havoc with our markets, my precious metals investments, and it's becoming wearisome.

Just do the right thing, Greece. Tell the Euro crowd to stuff it. Bail out of that artificial coalition. Let the Greek economy collapse, washing away the unpayable debts and start fresh, something like Iceland. That would benefit you, and us. It's a true win-win situation.

Just do it! Please.

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:02pm


What are your thoughts on buying APMEX brand silver? Or Sunshine for that matter? Does it make sense to save on premiums since silver is silver?

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:05pm

Is anyone going for a dip in the Crimex cesspool?!?...

Metallic Ruffled Edge Hot Pants : burning man bikini gold silver costumes metallic panties lingerie sexy costumes hot pants sexy undies shorts

Last one in is a dirty rotten...

Bag Of Gold

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:09pm

Very Encouraging

Last time we saw EUR/USD at 1.3183 was Feb 3rd. At that time, Silver traded at $34.30.

This time we hit EUR/USD 1.3183 and silver $33.40, a $1 difference - silver has some catching up to do which imo is why its holding up like a champ today. We've also bounced off low 33's a bunch of times now. Support at 33.08-33.30 is very strong and will likely not be breached unless we see a EUR/USD selloff taking us below 1.3025.

I'm very encouraged by this. My gut feel is that as soon as the Euro starts to retrace the selloff this am and gain some positive momentum, silver will make a move through $34.40. Additional leverage available thanks to CME *snicker* will certainly help in that regards as well (even if it is just a set up so they can drop the hammer again when price starts running away from them again later this year. It's hard to drop a hammer when the hammer is 1 mm off the ground; you must lift it first). 

Question is will there be strength in the Euro.. Who knows! Seems to me the all eyes are on Greece this weekend for the next piece of news which will drive the Euro one way or the other and thus we should wake up Monday morning to either a jump in metals or a drop in the euro (and if so, hope 1.3025 holds).

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:15pm

Napolitano cancelled?

Oh man... this isn't good. The ONLY show on TV that resembles any sort of freedom inspiring commentary. I hope Judge gets another show elsewhere or even starts his own website show. We need to take his videos and put them into a time capsule for future generations... or hell, even our generation so we know how to rebuild this fucking place once the dust settles.

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:35pm

I don't mind a dip into the weekend

Myself and 3 other NASA stackers are headed to the Bellaire Winter Coin Show this weekend, so this little dip will help our DCA when we look back a few months or years down the road. Not planning any large purchases (got a gold 20 pesos delivered a few days before Bernanke opened his mouth), but when at a coin show, I will have to pick up some 90% and my friends do the same. I want a few more peace and Morgan dollars, and maybe some pretty barbers. A bit of random old world silver is fun to pick through as well, like Balboas, that we usually find for under melt. Anyone who is near Houston, stack on.

Pax Argentum
Feb 10, 2012 - 12:37pm

Greece - the Slow Motion Trainwreck

Greek Fatigue?

Not quite yet. There's more to it than molotov cocktails and dithering politicians.

The conclusion is foregone. Germany wants Greece out of the Eurozone. Therefore, Greece will be out of the Eurozone. Everything else is merely a puppetshow to allow the stakeholders (not the taxpayers) to define their positions for a post-Euro Greece.

The important thing to watch wrt Greece was highlighted by Santa during his interview with Ellis Martin last week and then underlined again by TF here:

What's important is not that Greece will default but what will happen afterwards. Someone is going to take it in the shorts for the losses and whoever it might be initially, you better believe it'll be the U.S. taxpayer picking up the check in the end via the Fed.

From a sociopolitical point of view, Greece is giving the rest of us in the western world a ringside seat to our potential future. Watch closely how the bankers and their pet politicians maneuver, head-fake and flip flop in an attempt to keep the dialog and the process moving toward their chosen outcome. Really fascinating stuff, if it wasn't also heading straight our way in the not too distant future.

See here for the latest head-fake:

It pays to pay attention. The bankers are giving us their gameplan. I'd take notes if I were you. ;-)


Feed the Turd.

P.S. - A Judge N. podcast would be pure sweetness. Hope that happens!

Be Prepared
Feb 10, 2012 - 12:40pm

TFMetalsReport broke this Story first....

I reported this story here on TFMetals back on February 3rd with this post

Energy Drives the Economy

Zerohedge is just reporting this today......

Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking?

We rock here in Turdville!

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:47pm


This is all you need to watch for now. An almost perfect negative correlation.



Feb 10, 2012 - 12:50pm


I own APMEX generics and think they are worth saving on the premium. While you might not have the same perceived security that an ASE or a coin another nation's mint will produce, APMEX is still a well known reputable brand in the PM community. When you purchase from APMEX though, make sure the quantity you are purchasing will get you the best deal. Sometimes they have 99c sales on their generic rounds on any quantity, although I've notice that it usually happens on a green day

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:53pm

Judge Podcast

This would be a huge score. I love the Judge! Feed the Turd.

Feb 10, 2012 - 12:57pm

Federal Reserve Note game not for me

I'm very new so please cut me some slack. That said here we go.

I have read a lot mostly from this board and links from this board for the last year.

I did some research for myself to confirm some of what seemed to be BS.

I had a total shift in my thoughts as to what money is i.e. a "Paradigm Shift"

I understand the Federal Reserve Note (FRN) game is about over, just do the math. If you believe that

then why would anyone play in this rigged game? They are the Apex Predator, you have to give them respect. Yes there are fish in the sea and then there is the Great White shark, it's not just a nether fish.

If you think so you will be its next meal. My thinking is "The shark can't get me if I'm not in the sea."

I had an e-trade account but got fleeced. Now the only game I play is as a stacker, in my hand, hidden in the same bunker with Mark Levin.

It’s the only game in town as far as I'm concerned.

My Wife thinks I will be wrapping foil around my head any time now.

Can you say "Normalcy Bias"! any how that is a whole different story.

We have been eating sugarcoated poison for so long we all think it is fillet mignon.

I think the time is NOW to slowly move from the FRNs and into things you can eat, trade and secure your family and friends with. It's happening every day, the new show about Doomsdayers. Remember this post, you will see in a short time 3 to 4 months from now the MSM will be reporting mini runs on grocery stores. Think about it.

If you have been sitting on the fence, as many are this will be the tipping point. But I think we are about 2 years from having to use our food storage. Think about it, and tell me if my wife is correct about the foil.

I respect most everyone on this board. Thank you Mr. Turd Ferguson.

Feb 10, 2012 - 1:02pm

Great Stuff

Great stuff as usual Turd. The article by Chris M. is great, two words to describe the phenomena might be - cognitive dissonance. And Green Lantern's post was a great way to get around it.

What you do always speaks louder than what you say. I can hear it now...

Here Come Da Judge, Here Come Da Judge!

Xeno TF
Feb 10, 2012 - 1:04pm

A not completely unexpected

A not completely unexpected metals pullback to test the breakouts :) Oh Yeah!

Be Prepared
Feb 10, 2012 - 1:05pm

@1ShotAK - Awesome Post

Quote of the Day

We have been eating sugarcoated poison for so long we all think it is fillet mignon.

You are not ready for your tin foil hat.... though it sounds like you have some more work to do with the significant other because it really helps if they are on board...

It's hard facing the Paradigm Shift and realizing that the game has been severely rigged and, more importantly, that the infrastructure of the game is starting to come apart....

Keep on Posting..... :-)

Feb 10, 2012 - 1:09pm

APMEX VP sales said...

"Eric, in dollar terms in it hands down gold and in oz terms it is hands down silver...the historic ratio is 57:1 and today is 50:1...need more data overtime to see whether there will be a permanent shift lower."

Wonder where he got that ratio?

This guys is just a salesman.

Feb 10, 2012 - 1:13pm

Bank Lawsuit Settlement - Insights at the Moment

Below is a great article today from Abigail Field, a true pioneer and outspoken critic of the big banks. I received this article from an email source, so I can reprint it here. I would try to write a nice summary of what she said, but her article is so good, I put it here for you all to read yourself so as not to shortchange her thoughts. Here are some other links to read for additional analysis:

I will say that as usual, banks get off scot free, while consumers/taxpayers get ripped off. It really is a total joke. The only upside I can see from this is that banks are likely to dramatically increase the speed of foreclosures now that this part of the legal situation is past them.

What this means in the near term is that consumers who were living rent free, squatting, really, will now be kicked out sooner rather than later. So, all of that money which was flowing into the economy, diverted really, from where it should have been going, will now suddenly be siphoned off and will disappear from the economy. Think about discretionary spending, ipads, restaurants, typical shopping mall stuff, you get the picture. All of that consumer spending will disappear, because now, those deadbeats will have to pay rent, and the rent money will in all likelihood not be flowing into consumer frivolities.

In short, I see the economy speeding up towards recession, because the paltry $2,000 going to some consumers is a pittance. That sum amounts to 20 tanks of gas, hardly enough to get the consumers out of their debt slavery.

I will be weighing in as I learn things on this, too, so stay tuned.

Anyhow, here is the article:

"The sweetheart deal the feds just finished forcing down the throat of the state AGs is only the latest piece of evidence–evidence enough to reach ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’–that your federal government works for the banks and not you. Team Obama has placed the economic interests of the banks and the freedom of bankers above your economic interests, the rule of law, and any notion of good faith, fair dealing and justice. They won’t admit it; Team Obama will run hard as champions of the 99% on all things, including being Tough On Banks! and Helping Homeowners! But neither is true, and it’s critical that you not believe them when they say it.

That said, please understand; I’m not hawking the Republicans: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are no better on banking and housing. The only candidate I heard make some sense on these issues was John Huntsman, and he’s no longer in the race. On banking and housing policy, we currently have no good candidates.

My slim hope for good bank and housing policy rests on you. If Team Obama is confronted with an informed and active electorate over the next several months–confronted with enough voters demanding good policy instead of easily disprovable talking points–I think it’s possible to goad a-scared-we-won’t-be-reelected Team Obama into actuallydoing good policy.

So what can you do? Participate with CredoAction, The New Bottom Line, The Other 98%Occupy Our Homes or any other group pushing hard for good policy, refusing to provide political cover to a weak incumbent too ??? to do the right thing. Start your own group. But participate. Be a DOER. Call your members of Congress; call your Attorney General, your state representatives, your governor, President Obama. And in an era when the Supreme Court insists corporations have the right to speak at a volume calculated to drown out everyone else, insist on being heard.

Here’s some links that get at part of what I’m talking about when I say that Team Obama–our Federal Government–speaks for the banks, not for you.

On how and why the current deal is a bad idea:

On the failure of our “Justice” Department to hold bankers accountable or to defend the rule of law:

On the fact that the HAMP program, which is supposedly about helping homeowners, is really a bank friendly effort to stretch out foreclosures:

I mean yes, I hear tell that homeowners can occasionally get a helpful HAMP mod. If you need help, YES, APPLY FOR A HAMP MOD. A sustainable mod is the surest path to keeping your house. To apply, however, get a good lawyer. Don’t believe the banks’ you don’t need a lawyer hype. For starters, you might have very good legal claims or might be a good bankruptcy candidate; you won’t know either if you don’t get good legal help. My point here is just that helping homeowners on the mass scale needed wasn’t the primary goal of the program. It just wasn’t.

And just a quick contrast with what the Federal Government could have done to help homeowners, had it in fact wanted to help homeowners with HAMP: Pay down underwater mortgages directly. Before talking about the merits of this idea, however, let’s look at a key question: Just how much money are we talking about when we say HAMP?

HAMP at the outset was a $75 Billion program, and was rightly understood to be an abject failure. Rather than really fix it, Treasury just reduced the amount of money the program had, to $50 Billion. Then it shrank to $37 Billion. Then $29 Billion. And no, I don’t mean Treasury spent money down from $75 billion; Treasury just kept pulling money back. So without more, that suggests a lack of seriousness in helping homeowners: You cut the budget of a program more than in half even as the problem it ostensibly is designed to help grows.

And note: paying down principal is better than cajoling the banks to write off principal. If principal is paid down, the creditor gets the money. Who is the creditor? In many cases–in securitized mortgages–the creditor is often you, through a state pension fund or a 401k or your insurer investing to someday pay your life insurance policy.

Right now homeowners are $700+ billion underwater, so even putting every one of the original $75 billion into people’s mortgages wouldn’t help all that much, but it would have helped far more than HAMP has, or the $25 billion in the current bank-gift settlement would. Even now there’s about $20 billion in HAMP money that’s doing nothing for homeowners. It could still be used to avert foreclosures by reducing principal.

Now, I know that Dodd-Frank made it illegal to use TARP/HAMP money for any programs that didn’t exist as of June 25, 2010, but here’s the thing: that doesn’t mean existing programs can’t be tinkered with. For example, Treasury keeps changing the incentives and eligibility standards under HAMP and its equally ineffective cousin, HARP.

So why can’t Treasury use the money to pay down principal within HAMP? It could do a dollar-for-dollar match; it could use a threshold–writedown $20k and we’ll pay down the next $30k–something, anything that has a chance of actually being useful; it could say, look, if it would make the numbers on a loan you otherwise couldn’t modify work, we’ll pay down $20k, and then you do the mod.

But again, as Treasury candidly admitted and the writers above documented, HAMP wasn’t about helping millions of homeowners, it was about spacing out foreclosures so the market could absorb them better. (Still, it might help you if you try.)

That’s your the banker’s federal government at work!

Again, get involved. Participate in our democracy.

Participate with CredoAction, The New Bottom Line, TheOther 98%Occupy Our Homes or any other group pushing hard for good policy, refusing to provide political cover to a weak incumbent who is too ??? to do the right thing. Start your own group. But participate. Be a DOER. Call your members of Congress; call your Attorney General, your state representatives, your governor, President Obama. Help our country."

Feb 10, 2012 - 1:13pm

Hoard and forget it !

You traders may make it big.....but many will fight the tape and risk their stacks from here to eternity ! When the manipulations get brazen and drastic (Yes they can get a lot worse when the Fiati panic !) you could lose big ! The Crimex is a Casino with stacked stacks ! Monedas 2012 Stoning is the green alternative to "necklacing" ! devil

Be Prepared
Feb 10, 2012 - 1:16pm

Why Our Currency will Fail?

Thanks Turd for the link to the Article....

I put this Article in a PDF form so that it could be forwarded to friends and family...

Why Our Currency will Fail?

All attributions and copyright remain intact......

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