Margin CUT?!?

119
Thu, Feb 9, 2012 - 5:09pm

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  119 Comments

shaz · Feb 9, 2012 - 7:49pm

several threads and days

several threads and days back

i asked about this

and low and behold

here it is

interesting

bringing back spec longs

a setup?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cme-lowers-margin-requirements-for-oil-metals-2012-02-09

BagOfGold · Feb 9, 2012 - 7:52pm

Maximillion...The silence of the sheeple is deafening!!!...

Bull trap = They let the brakes off a bit, complete with a bit of media ramping, so as to get the normal sheeple piling into paper, then re-short naked from a higher point, complete with margin hikes, thereby taking all the new $$$ back as per last April! The only TV news article I recall being bullish on Silver last year was about 4 days before it peaked, so that's the cue to get out!

They will get trampled...& then...unfortunately...

Video unavailable

Bag Of Gold

Fred Hayek · Feb 9, 2012 - 7:56pm

If CME really wants to increase its profits . .

It should consider a fraudulence cut.

Announce to great fanfare that outright manipulation will decrease 50% (to determining the momentum of the market just every other day)! A new policy of honest regulatory oversight will be instituted on a once a week trial basis! 

But, wait, there's more!

For just double the margin requirements of just a year ago, we'll offer platitudes implying 50% more chance of the three year old coming to fruition in your lifetime!

Pax Argentum · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:00pm

Re: The Judge and Freedom Watch

Well, there goes the only reason to watch the right-wing of the MSM.

I stopped watching the left-wing a long time ago. They're all shills for the SQ.

Here's hoping the Judge ends up on the 'net or in some other venue where being a Strict Constitutionalist is a positive.

I can somehow imagine his voice coming over the shortwave from 'an undisclosed location' after TSHTF with 'The Underground Freedom Watch'.

Stay tuned boys and girls. Coming soon to an illegal transmitter/receiver near you.

Pax

Feed the Turd.

AgNovice · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:07pm

How will you respond

Turd, thank you for the valuable resource.

I'm sorry if this is out of line, but I'd like an answer to this by you and your staff. I think should be asked of all network service providers.

What will you do when you are asked for your user list, and the mapping of username to email address and other pertinent information?

I believe the time is coming when you will be asked for that.

What will you do?

(in the space, I recognize the need to strategize)

Save_America1st · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:11pm

The future of the fiat FRN...

I like it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HW5GzwvnNsI

Don't burn it all folks...save enough to wipe yer bum yes

Desert Fox · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:14pm

Have We Got a Deal For You!

CME Customer Appreciation Extravaganza!

lairdwd · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:18pm

Don't know why you guys think this is a trap

This is wildly bullish news. Pressure is building on the long side for sure. Cartel is holding it down and shooting their load, getting caught on the wrong side of the trade. If spec volume picks up, they are going to be forced to run for higher ground.

My thinking is that specs have been giving serious thought to re-joining the party, and the margin cut is going to be wildly bullish for the action tomorrow and into next week. Especially with ES stagnating. Easy money has been made in equities. I see all major resistance levels falling shortly on the PM's. The margin cut is the gift the bulls have been waiting for. Crimex volume picked up a little today before the beatdown.

This could be just the catalyst the bulls have been waiting for. 

margaritatime · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:23pm

AgNovice / lairdwd

Ag: I realize while your question is directed at TF, but I have to ask..

What makes you think they need that information from TF? Anytime you post to a forum your IP is logged, in fact every time you visit a website, send an email, text message, cell call.. One would not need your email address to figure out who you are. 

Personally I say bring it, although I try not to intentionally draw attention to myself. Believe me if it comes to that, you will have a lot more worries than what url's you frequent. Just sayin'.

Lairdwd: Remember it is not the action that is important, it is the reaction.

punchbowl · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:26pm

agnovice

No need to ask for a list they already have which is probably far more detailed then the one Turd could provide. Somewhere it has been recorded that you visited here and posted today. Is that camera lens that came with your computer taped over?

Dr G · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:42pm

Why CME margin cuts won't do

Why CME margin cuts won't do a damn thing to help the bulls:

I don't expect any positive movement as a result of CME margin cuts in gold and silver. Notice that I didn't say that I don't expect any positive movement period. There will be positive movement. They can't contain it forever, but they can limit it to two steps forward and then one step back.

Margin HIKES have a devastating affect on the price of gold and silver. But do they really? Let's not forget the nefarious and evil personas that the metals are up against. I would argue that, while margin hikes certainly aren't a friend of the bulls, the hikes are simply really good cover for the C/C/C to do more dirty work and drop the price of the metals. Sure, margin calls and blah, blah, blah--but it's all a cover of darkness for raids to occur.

Therefore, I don't expect margin CUTS to move the price upward. If the price drops from hikes are really the work of the Cartel and their goonies (and only a small part a result of actual buyers being forced out of the market), then we would expect that margin cuts are not going to make a big difference in upward price.

Silver was cut by 13% and the margins are still ridiculous. This could be a trap to sucker paper back in, but don't for a minute think we are suddenly going through 34 an 1750 because margins were cut.

The Cartel needs a shower and could use some deodorant but they aren't stupid.

​So, unlike lairdwd, I don't think there is a damn bullish thing about the margin cuts.

SimplyEconomics · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:51pm

Dr. G totally disagree. Its

Dr. G totally disagree. Its like a stock that just dropped 10 bucks. The suckers want to get their money back. They all pile in.

AgNovice margaritatime · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:53pm

@margaritatime

margaritatime

Yes, I realize that "they" can and do track all that information. It may be easier for "them" to ask the owner of the offending property directly - it certainly would be more efficient than trolling through a global log. Or perhaps a lower minion may not have access to the full database of tracked information, but can exert pressure in a specific location for a specific purpose. Also, a complete database from the source is easier to get from the owner of the resource than piecing it together from logs. Perhaps all it takes is a gentle threat to prize the database from the provider.

My servers and services are on my machines. However, the traffic has to go through routers, and my machines are in a locked box in a colo, and as such, I realize it isn't entirely secure.

From the personal front, there are ways to hide IP addresses, obfuscating network paths, and using single-use mail.

I think it's a useful exercise to reflect on what you'd do if you were asked to provide that information.

AgNovice punchbowl · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:57pm

@punchbowl

There are opensource programs which allow you to view the raw traffic on your network. It's possible to determine if the camera has been compromised by watching the traffic out of your network.

exiledbear · Feb 9, 2012 - 8:59pm

It's an across-the-board cut

I think this has more to do with MFG induced lack of liquidity than anything else, I suppose. I don't think that the reduction in margins will restore confidence in their marketplace.

I wonder if this has more to do with helping some crony with some large position, and they're covering who it is that's bleeding by cutting across the board.

Dr G · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:00pm

Nobody has been watching

Nobody has been watching anybody through the camera on their computers. What good would that do? They would simply see you are using the interwebs. They already know you are using the interwebs.

Stratajema · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:22pm

CME = death of its customers

The compliance department at any non-bozo brokerage house has already forbidden its own traders from increasing exposure at the Crimex. So those traders are in a wind-down of exposure and cutting margins means NOTHING! ha ha bite me CME, you did this to yourself.

¤ · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:29pm

fwiw

I'm pretty sure "they" can ID you and locate most individuals quite easily if they really wanted to.

They might find it difficult to track someone who knows all about these types of things (like a spy) and who knows of counter-surveillance etc. but the average person in my opinion who leads a routine life and has lived in one place for awhile and has banking and mail coming to them regularly etc. has no place to hide imo. We've all left a long and visible bread crumb trail of sorts in our daily activities where we live or where we go online and from where etc. 

If "they" want to, they can find you. Cell phones can be tracked using triangulation from other cell towers even if your phones not in use. Anyplace you go online has a address of sorts where your logged in from.

Imo, unless a person went totally off-line in many ways (no banking, driving etc.) and bugged out somewhere remote would be the only way they might not be able to find you if they really wanted to. Eventually they would. 

Personally, I have nothing to hide and I'm not engaged in anything illegal or subversive. I speak my mind but I'm pretty tame ( I think blush) compared to some of the absolute flame throwing I read online from other sources here and there. I think we've all seen some really biting commentary at times and definitely viewed it online or TV.

So even though I worry a bit about the direction that big bro has taken and a slight fear that we might be watched and judged from afar, I also realize I'm small potatoes compared to some very loud and prominent TV Network shows/documentaries or movies that absolutely rip the establishment.

DPHaze is sticking around because I'm not a threat even though my civil liberties feel threatened. 

They've got us thinking and they're in our heads a little bit. Speaking for myself on that last part of it but I think it applies to some here also.

Titus Andronicus · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:44pm

Is it really a margin cut?

I don't know about others, but in my futures account there has been no difference between initial margin and maintenance margin ever since the MF Global default. I've been wondering when this was going to be changed. Maybe this is just my broker, but I'm not sure.

Is it possible that the change is really lowering margin but re-instating the difference between initial and maintenance margin?

In other words, initial margin will increase a bit, while maintenance margin decreases a bit?

I'm waiting to see how my account is settled over night.

Bugzy · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:49pm

IP address

For those who want more private browsing: Try ixquick.com as your search engine.

After a search, you can click on proxy (at the end of each search). 

ixquick stores no info about you at all. It is based in Europe and if using proxy function - does not allow the sites you visit to see your IP address.

This is the simplest method.

Jimbio · Feb 9, 2012 - 9:49pm

@Tyler

Could you elaborate on War not being deflationary? How about short term? I can see war being a black swan that will cause some liquidation of assets across the board and a brief flight into the dollar. I'd be happy to be proven wrong in this regard. What do the history teach us of events like these?

imfd Dr G · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:09pm

Watching

Strangely enough, just the other day i was on my computer when i noticed an icon at the bottom that wasn`t there before. I clicked on it and up came the HP webcam description box, i thought it odd at the time as i never use the webcam, in fact i don`t think i have ever used it. There was no reason for it to be there. i forgot about it until reading the comments tonight...i just covered the lens with a sticker just in case. Now i can say that it must have been someone else looking at subversive sites on my computer, that is sure to work and keep me out of trouble, cunning eh !

Rico · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:10pm

If they woke up to find that

If they woke up to find that the price of gold and silver had tripled overnight, 9 out of 10 posters on this blog would figure out a way to bitch about it--then worry that they're about to be spirited away to a FEMA camp, in a black helicopter...

¤ · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:15pm
Be Prepared · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:36pm

@Rico - Love the no nonsense posts!

Straight shooting.... but they're coming to take you away...haha...

They're Comming to take me away (funny farm),
survivalwstyle · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:41pm

with you DPH

one of my favorites. fEElin this jam tonight from my favorite band. this is claSSic eDDie. makes the music live live. why i try not miSS a live show in the region...the only band i have sEEn more than 3x.....and april 13 at the pearl @ the palms....solo. be there or be square.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8ByjoK3VVc

Be Prepared · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:46pm
Be Prepared · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:47pm

Margins are a "Statement" unto Themselves

I make this statement because it's good to analyze the "why" ---- is it a bull or bear trap? But the bigger question I always ask is...

WHY NOW? Why at this moment and on this day? What does it accomplish? Not just for them, but for the other powers that be...

The CME are nothing more than the front group for the Bigger Banking Cartels.... we all know that.

The Why Now seems to be tightly connected to the fact that volume in the pit is starting to dry up..... they are just trading with themselves.... the big players know that this market is broken....

Just think about it.... Eric Sprott convinced a major Silver Miner, Endeavor, to hold back production... that would have normally gone through the exchange.... how many other miners are doing this and just not telling anyone?

And what about Sprott's purchase itself? I doubt he's taking it through the CME to get supplied this time. He has more to gain by cutting them out and dealing directly with the miners/refiners themselves. That's another chunk of volume that isn't going through them.

History of Margin Hikes for 2011

​Silver Spot Price

  • 1/21/2011 - Initial ($11,137.50) Maintenance ($8,250.00) $27.14
  • 3/25/2011 - Initial ($11,745.00) Maintenance ($8,700.00) $37.68
  • 4/26/2011 - Initial ($12,825.00) Maintenance ($9,500.00) $45.48
  • 4/29/2011 - Initial ($14,512.50) Maintenance ($10,750.00) $48.70
  • 5/03/2011 - Initial ($16,200.00) Maintenance ($12,000.00) $43.61
  • 5/05/2011 - Initial ($18,900.00) Maintenance ($14,000.00) $37.84
  • 5/09/2011 - Initial ($21,600.00) Maintenance ($16,000.00) $38.00
  • 9/26/2011 - Initial ($24,975.00) Maintenance ($18,500.00) $28.16
  • 2/09/2012 - Initial ($21,600.00) Maintenance ($16,000.00) $34.00 (New)

​Gold Spot Price

  • 1/21/2011 - Initial ($6,751.35) Maintenance ($5,001.00) $1,343.50
  • 6/20/2011 - Initial ($6,075.00) Maintenance ($4,500.00) $1,544.00
  • 8/11/2011 - Initial ($7,425.00) Maintenance ($5,500.00) $1,760.00
  • 8/25/2011 - Initial ($9,450.00) Maintenance ($7,000.00) $1,729.00
  • 9/26/2011 - Initial ($11,475.00) Maintenance ($8,500.00) $1,598.00
  • 2/09/2012 - Initial ($10,125.00) Maintenance ($7,500.00) $1,730.10 (New)

Notice how the CME brought the Silver Margin back to the May 2011 level, but kept Gold above the August 2011 level.

 I would like to say that they are running scared, but they aren't.... we are all just pions to them and we barely register on their radar. This move to decrease the margin seems to be more of a test the water and see what happens.... kind of like they are fishing for a response to see what nibbles at the end of their line. Woe.... to those that bite!

optimize · Feb 9, 2012 - 10:55pm

Moron this?

Screw the CME...I'm staking physical only!

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