All Eyes On The Pig

174
Mon, Feb 6, 2012 - 4:08pm

Lots of thisses and thats today regarding the precious metals. I suppose that some commentary has merit but, really, it's all about The Pig.

First, though, I'm confident that there is a concerted effort being taken to "correct" the price of gold. Last week's CoT was lousy and I'm sure that the brief rally through 1750 late last week was allowed by The Cartel as an attempt to suck in a few more spec longs before putting the hammer down...and the hammer is falling as I type. Gold was first savagely attacked after the spectacularly manipulated BLSBS number on Friday. Then, as gold was attempting to rally overnight, the goons on the LBMA put the wood to it. Gold would have certainly fallen even farther on the Comex today had it not been for a pesky little Pig that failed to cooperate.

As stated in the last post, gold has risen almost 15% from the low of 1535 in late December to the high last week of 1765. A 5% correction should not only be expected, it should be welcomed. Though I expect support between 1705 and 1720, I am hoping for a quick drop to 1680 or so. At that point, we would have our 5% correction and I would be a ready and willing buyer.

OK, back to The Pig. After falling sharply eight days ago after the FOMC "QE to Infinity" announcement, the March POSX has stabilized and is now rangebound between 78.80 and 79.60. Which way this range breaks will be the directional determinant of the next leg of the PM trade. Note that while Pigatha has been stuck for 8 days so, too, has silver been stuck in a similar range. Silver is trading as a simple inverse of The POSX. You saw it today. Silver was falling sharply right after the Comex open but turned and reversed in a nice little FUBM as soon as The Pig rolled over at 9:00 am. Pigatha's rally saved silver today. Tomorrow or Wednesday we may not be so lucky. Additionally, using the same math as we did on gold, silver rallied almost 30% from late December to last week ($26 to $34). A 10% correction in silver would certainly be possible here. That would take us back to maybe 31 or 31.50.

So, here's what we know:

  1. The Cartel wants to force a gold correction.
  2. Silver is trading as a nearly perfect inverse to the POSX.
  3. POSX is rangebound, waiting on news to break it higher or lower.

My best guess is that the POSX will break higher at some point later this week (Greece, Syria, Iran...something causes a flight to The Pig). This will cause the PMs to break lower. Gold trades thru 1705 and trips some sell stops. It falls all the way to 1680 before stopping. Silver drops through 33 and 32.80, trips some stops and declines all the way through 32 before slowing.

One last thing before I sign off. The article below I found on Harvey's site late last week. I can't find a link and, since he reprinted the entire thing, it must be OK for me to do the same. The report is a rather interesting detail of the history of the region around the Mediterranean. Given that the headlines deteriorated again today, I thought that tonight would be a good time to post it. Here you go:

From Don Coxe, Coxe Advisors, LLP

https://www.coxeadvisors.com/Don_Coxe_-_Coxe_Advisors/Home.html
The Mediterranean in History
History buffs would argue that it is impossible to understand the effects on the world from a Mediterranean roiled by crises occurring simultaneously within both the eurozone and the Arab nations today without looking back to the Mediterranean in history.
The "Arab Spring" has focused the world's attention on the South Shore of the Mediterranean. However, most commentators on the successive revolutions supply maps of each of the states, but almost never a map of Mediterranean civilization. This is both non-historical and misleading.



Because none of the city states or countries bordering on the Mediterranean was self-sufficient in everything necessary for a secure and civilized existence—food, wine, weaponry, tools, clothing, papyruses with texts of literature, poetry, military strategy, and agriculture, and the best artefacts for praising the gods—trade was a necessity.
Since ancient times, the states and empires of the Mediterranean region have not just fought and conquered each other—but have traded with, and influenced each other.
The Cradle of Western Civilization—Then and Now
For nearly two millennia, such significance as Greece enjoyed internationally was mostly for its beautiful isles and ruins, and the Romantic dream that the gods, heroes and geniuses embodied in "The Glory That Was Greece" somehow lingered in Olympus, Delphi, and Athens. Recently, it became the source of the Olympic Flame. Even more recently, it became the first of the overindebted underachievers to go broke because of its own profligacy.
In the six centuries before the Christian era, Greece was the leading intellectual and cultural force of the Northern Mediterranean. Alexander the Great spread that influence as far East as the borders of India. His legacy also proved decisive for Egypt.
The Ptolemy dynasty which continued to Egypt after his death until the suicide of Cleopatra, staked its claim to divinity through descent from his mother. In the three centuries of Ptolemaic rule, Alexandria became the intellectual and artistic capital of the Mediterranean and, in its library, the pre-eminent storehouse of Greek culture.
When Julius Caesar's nephew Octavian was given the title of Emperor Augustus, there were three major culture centers—Athens, Alexandria and Rome—of which Rome was the least distinguished. His rule ended the Hellenistic era which had begun with Alexander—the golden age of Grecian cultural dominance of the Mediterranean.
The Romans called the Mediterranean "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea)—both as an assertion of Rome's ability to project military power across it, and their hope that Poseidon would treat Roman shipping favorably—the Mediterranean being notably storm-tossed, particularly during the winds of winter.
Julius Caesar conquered Britain and Gaul, but could hardly wait to come to Egypt, staying in Alexandria for nearly two years. It was not only the near-divine cultural center of the Mediterranean—but was Rome's biggest grain supplier. Rome hadn't been able to feed its citizens and legions for centuries. It relied on conquests and trade—and trade was usually more reliable.
Rome annexed Egypt when Octavian won the sea battle over Antony and Cleopatra's fleet at Actium in 31 BC. Until then, Rome had to form shifting alliances with the powers in Egypt and the Near East.
Prior to the rise of Islam, the Mediterranean was the center of the known world, and could be described as one huge—albeit diverse—community, which included citizens resident across the region. That was how Saint Paul saw it: when captured, he announced, "Civis Romanus Sum"—gaining the right to trial in Rome. The Catholic Church became the great unifying force across the region when Rome entered decline.
Then Islam swept through the South shore, and West and East shores, being thrown back only after centuries of struggle.
Today, the Mediterranean is two civilizations in simultaneous, rapidly unfolding crises. To date, those crises have been largely unrelated. That may well be about to change.
On the North and West shores, it is a nominally Christian community in which the church is a declining force. On the South and East shores, apart from Israel, it is an Islamic community in which religion is a stronger political and social force than at any time since the Ottoman Empire entered decline.
An equally important divide is demography. Europe is in the middle stages of demographic collapse on the Japanese model, with a fertility rate of approximately 1.3 babies per female—far below the replacement rate of 2.1—each new generation is roughly 60% of its predecessor, making the third generation roughly 40% the size of the first. That loss of the basic dynamism of human progress is an insuperable force for declining economic activity: GDP is output per worker multiplied by the number of workers. During and after the Baby Boom years, this meant annual growth in the number of potential workers and first-time home buyers. Today, that shrinking and aging population is a downward drag on real estate prices and employment opportunities, since home building and servicing are such huge job contributors.
For many years, tourism was the most reliable source of income of Mediterranean PIIGS as their economies became less competitive, but the demographic decline among the Northern European nations and the strong euro have proved painful for hotels, tour operators, sailboat charterers and restaurants. La dolce vita rests on reliable cash flows.
The third major divide within the Mediterranean region is education. On the North shore, literacy is near-universal and higher education trains millions of young people for the jobs global economic growth offers. That so many millions of them are unemployed is due to slow economic growth, guild and union laws, and other over-regulation that stultifies competition and progress.
In the South, education is a double-edged scimitar. Illiteracy is widespread, which means a huge percentage of the population is destitute or on the edge of economic disaster—like the poor Tunisian street vendor whose self immolation launched the most dramatic geopolitical developments in the Mediterranean since a Serbian anarchist killed Austria's Grand-Duke.
However, most of the Arab revolutions were launched by educated young people who could not find worthwhile employment in their largely dysfunctional economies. Cell phones and computers are ubiquitous, but there are few new manufacturing and service industries emerging. Young people envy the fast-developing prosperity of their generation across so many emerging economies, and blame their sclerotic regimes for their lack of opportunities.
Paradoxically, the biggest political winners from the sacrifices of the local youthful educated elites are the parties with no coherent economic growth agenda, just the mantra that "Islam is the answer." These parties were minor contributors to the miracles of Tahrir Square and its neighboring countries. But the dedication and organization of the Islamist parties, including the 8th Century purist version called Salafists, has meant that the divisions among the varying liberal or moderate factions have given power to them in Egypt.
In the Egyptian elections, the Islamists won 72% of the votes, with the Muslim Brotherhood receiving 47% and the Salafists 25%. Although the Brotherhood insists it is pluralist and tolerant, its highest-profile liberals who were so visible in its rise to power are now, according to numerous press reports, losing ground to hard-liners.
As we wrote in Basic Points while enthusiasm for the Arab Spring was running high across the world, the record for autocratic regimes toppled by idealistic liberals includes all too many tragedies. Examples: the Girondistes and their liberal allies in France lost power—and, in many cases, their heads, to the Jacobins, who were succeeded by Napoleon, who became Emperor; the Mensheviks and other liberals in Russia who seized power from the tsars in February 1917 were deposed in October by Lenin and his Bolsheviks, and were systematically annihilated thereafter.
Among the most conspicuous Egyptian victims of the Fall of Mubarak are the Coptic Christians (nearly 10% of the population), who were well-established in Egypt centuries before Islam was born, and who form a disproportionately large percentage of the educated and business-oriented citizenry. Their churches have been burnt—sometimes with worshippers inside. They have been brutalized by mobs while soldiers watched placidly. The brazen attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo also appeared to have been organized with support from elements in the army: soldiers stood by until the mob had broken through all the external barriers.
Predictable effect: tourism, Egypt's biggest foreign-currency earner, is collapsing. Foreign direct investment—heavily tourist-oriented—is on hold. Despite its massive problems, Egypt had been making modest economic progress until the army arrested Mubarak and embarked on an erratic program of crisis management, which has triggered double-digit inflation and a sharp fall in the nation’s modest forex reserves. Its decision to reject an IMF loan in June, because the terms were “insulting” has forced the interim government to borrow locally, thereby draining liquidity from the economy. The new Muslim Brotherhood government talks of modernizing the economy, but long-range planning and investment cannot be implemented in a crisis. The Salafists were elected by the poorest of the poor, and they are adamant that the food and energy subsidies that are draining the treasury must continue.
Remarkably, the other big divide between North and South is faith in democracy.
The unifying cry across the South Shore has been the demand for democracy, for which thousands of mostly young and mostly liberal people suffered imprisonment, torture or death.
Such idealism is at bay on the North Shore: the two cradle nations of Mediterranean democracy—Greece and Italy—which were democratic while Spain and Portugal were still dictatorships, have been forced by the eurocrisis to forsake rule by elections. They have fired their top political leaders in favor of elite Eurocrat replacements acceptable to the European Central Bank and Brussels.
Even when Alexander the Great was conquering the eastern Mediterranean and Southern Asia, the lives and fortunes of most people on earth were unaffected.
Not today. The so-called "Cradle of Western Civilization" is rocking amid strong winds from both sides of the sea; if it falls, the economic and geopolitical effects will be enormous.
Conclusion
The eurozone's problems and the Arab Spring have, to date, been discussed in the media as discrete occurrences.
However, for the first time since the Second World War, most of the nations in the region face crises simultaneously, which suggests huge potential instability.
The key reason Italy broke its long, lucrative Libyan relationship, and enthusiastically supported the NATO attacks was the flood of Libyan refugees pouring into Italy. Libya's cash flow problems could be temporary, because its substantial production of light crude oil should shortly resume, but in its attempts at nation-building it faces the same internal conflicts between liberals and Islamists as Egypt. Already, pro-Gadhafi supporters have taken over one town and proclaimed a rebellion.
Sadly, it is almost inevitable that the North Shore will soon face serious refugee problems as the non-oil South Shore nations are torn with internal divisions the dictators had suppressed, and their fragile, uncompetitive economies implode. Iran managed to survive as a brutal Shia theocracy because it inherited a society of well-educated men and women—with a strong agricultural and trading base in which entrepreneurialism flourished—and because of its immense reserves of oil and gas. (Fortunately, Iran is unlikely to be a major meddler in the Mediterranean crises, because the populations are largely Sunni.)
Beleaguered governments frequently resort to distracting their citizenry by blaming foreign enemies. Israel has been blamed for nearly all Mideast problems for decades—by Arab propagandists and by the global Left. It has peace treaties with two neighbors—Jordan and Egypt. The Egyptian Army rulers were careful not to suggest that the Israel treaty should be torn up, as some of the candidates for office were demanding, partly because of American aid. However, it was to be “reviewed”. We saw Jordan’s King Abdullah being interviewed on US TV and he expressed concern about demands from radicals to revoke the Israel treaty, but said that it was crucial that Israel re-start its negotiations with the Palestinians, because the one issue uniting “all Arabs” was insistence on settling that question for once and for all.
Good luck with that.
The eurocrisis has been front and center for nearly two years, during which time the economic and financial fundamentals have continued to deteriorate. “The Arab Spring” came suddenly, in a series of outbursts of optimism. It may have come at the worst possible time for the beleaguered nations of the North Shore.
The Mediterranean has entered one of the stormiest periods in recorded history. It is the major contributor to risk in global equity markets. It is too soon to predict how these crises will end.
The Cradle of Civilization is rocking amid an array of winds and storms.

That's all, folks. See you Tuesday. TF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBzJGckMYO4

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  174 Comments

beardeus
Feb 6, 2012 - 11:06pm

Can you believe this shit?!

Just kiss the ass of the elite and you can be wrong 100% of the time and you'll be a demigod. Become a demigod and most of the sheep listen to your every word. Fuck millions out of their hard earned money and they still will kiss your ass.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mkll2DMYkFM

Sorry for the language. Just can't understand the matrix anymore.

Dr Durden
Feb 6, 2012 - 11:26pm

No, Jim

Silver is the people's money and the GLD is for those that like to fund terrorists. And you're not a rich man cause you were down 15% last year, you hide everything in your charitable trust fund and blow the rest on twinks and nose candy.

A friend of mine knows everything he knows about the markets from Cramer. He told me the other day the highest silver will EVER go will be $45. He also said it makes no sense to own PM's cause no one else does. He thinks guns will be far more valuable than gold because when the zombies attack, you can shoot them. I'm honestly not making any of this up. This is how these guys that watch endless amounts of CNBS actually think. Talking to them is like talking to bloated sheep carcass. May the Lord have mercy on their souls.

Nick Elway
Feb 6, 2012 - 11:29pm

Way more than two camps

@BrentLawrence

Even within the ZeroHedge readers there are more than two camps.

There are deflationists, deflation-then-hyperinflationists, inflation-then-hyperinflationists, and people that think a steady inflation of 20 percent per year is sustainable.

I haven't read enough Automatic Earth to argue. I see they understand the BLS numbers are hogwash, so I consider them good guys with whom I may disagree.

I stack nickels and have one bag of cash as a hedge just in case the deflationists or deflation-then-hyperinflationists are right.

The camp I worry more about are the vast crowd that doesn't read ZeroHedge.

I won't limit my discussion to either-or. There are lots of ways this could play out.

You'll know to sell gold when your taxi cab driver and your neighbors tell you they're making money in gold.

beardeus
Feb 6, 2012 - 11:33pm

@Dr Durden

Regarding your friend, this is good for us. This tells us how EXTREMELY undervalued silver really is. I stand by Eric Sprott and others when they say that an investment in silver will be the best and most profitable investment one can currently make.

Regarding sheep, anyone watch that absolutely awful, and illuminati, halftime show? I didn't but read and watched some segments of it.

Mudsharkbytes
Feb 6, 2012 - 11:35pm
Be Prepared
Feb 7, 2012 - 12:09am

Sheeple Awake!

Reposted from Zerohedge

Bohemian
Feb 7, 2012 - 12:20am

@Bohemian

Exactly. Back then, like now, there were very few prescient, forward thinkers. I was in high school, and I can tell you there was no news at all except that which came sanitized from the major networks, at night, on ABC, CBS, or NBC. Perception was managed for sure. Even if youhad come to my school and personally delivered your message back then, it would not have registered at all. Today, news is immediate, accurate, and unfiltered. The problem is that there is far too much normalcy bias as a direct result of information overload, and there is far too much disinformation and downright quackery bombarding one from all sides. This information onslaught requires precise thinking in order to be able to filter the noise and discern the real newsworthy events. Trust in the messenger is also critical, because without it, any conclusions drawn have suspect legitimacy. Simple things like hidden bias can ruin the weight of a valid opinion, once the hidden bias is discovered. That is why it is paramount to ALWAYS ask "for whose benefit" is the information, then carefully evaluate whether such information can be believed. It is so rare to find useful, unbiased information, that when one does find a source, the source must never, ever be lost. Plus, there is no better truth mechanism than cross examination by one holding an interest in the outcome. This free internet forum is amazing for that reason. I trust more sources on this blog than anywhere else. So, I commented about historical parallels I see, to put things into perspective. Your brilliant insights from 1979 or so are the same heavy thinking that we somdesperately need now. Keep sharing whatever you do, please. If I am missing something, please chime in, as I sure do want to be ahead of the problems before they start.

Teach
Feb 7, 2012 - 12:50am

I learned a couple of things in school...

One was "pigs can't fly" and the other was the difference between t.i.n.a. and t.a.m.a.

Tina = "there is no alternative" or polarized thinking.

Tama = "there are many alternatives" or a multiplicity of outcomes / solutions.

There seems to be a lot of polarized thinking in all arenas today; it's all win / lose. and that pig still can't fly. FTSBTSFY.

pourty
Feb 7, 2012 - 12:55am

This is what really frightens me...

They're simply going to label anyone a terrorist who doesn't bow down to tyranny. I can't believe they're being this obvious about it. https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-fbi-extremists-idUSTRE...

Apples
Feb 7, 2012 - 1:55am

Thanks for posting the Modern

Thanks for posting the Modern Marvels series the past few days. The miners documentaries were particularly interesting.

As for silver, I hope it continues its woes long enough to pick up some of these beauties as they come out.

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/products/159344/2012-1-oz-silver-canadi...

Halo
Feb 7, 2012 - 2:18am

Kubrick's Gold Story

Any Turdites wanting to watch a film might want to revisit Stanley Kubrick's "The Shining." It might become your favourite movie. There are 4 parts to this film analysis but it's worth it, imho.

Video unavailable
Lloyd: No charge to you, Mr. Torrance.
Jack: No charge?
Lloyd: Your money is no good here.
senseiam
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:10am

Like clockwork

Like clockwork down it goes at 6am EST, and straight down at that, so funny at this point. I held onto some fiat expecting this correction since around 1737, lets see how far they take it down.

Smiddywesson BrentLawrence
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:42am

@Brentlawrence

PMers are all about hyperinflation and the 'others' are all about deflation and a major correction of commodities that will send all the PMers home with their tail between their legs.

​The issue for me isn't whether we have hyperinflation or deflation. The issue for me is they are destroying the currency through spending and debt. Whether they drag this out a few more years and claim a deflationist victory, or it comes to a head quickly and the hyperinflationists win the argument, they are not going to escape the destruction of the currency through some magical flight to safety process where all the world's money flees their worthless fiat for our worthless fiat. We are just moving money around to buy time. There are limits in avoiding the avoidable.

Once one accepts that the currency is doomed, it matters not a wit what valuation gold and silver have under the old fiat system, because those prices will be completely irrelevant, unless of course, you have to sell out before the revalutation. I would say we have a bit of both deflation and inflation. Pump water from one hold to another and even a sinking ship seems bone dry and water tight. However, if the deflation argument against PM prices is so powerful, why is it that gold and silver continue to climb, for over a decade, when successive and very powerful waves of safety seeking continue to attack their prices? That's the difference between theory and practice. We DO have deflation and they ARE creating inflation in some areas of the economy, but contrary to theory, gold and silver have proven immune to the expected price pressures.

I find years of price action where PMs have risen in the face of manipulation by the world's most powerful villains, a lot more convincing about how PMs perform in this environment than some pipe puffing professor's theories about what PM prices should do in what he considers a deflation. Hey, maybe I'm wrong and PM prices go down before the big collapse, but so what? The end game is the US dollar is going to zero, so dollar valuation is irrelevant in the end.

ClinkinKY
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:48am
Smiddywesson senseiam
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:50am

like clockwork

I think the beat down started at 3 am yesterday and today too. The interesting thing is it just keeps floating back up when the concerted selling subsides. It's broken through 1720, but my bet is we battle back and forth across this line all day. I don't think we are going to see gut wrenching price action today. To me, the attacks don't feel like they have any of the strength we have been accustomed to over the last year.

ClinkinKY
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:53am
sixdollarsilver
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:54am

Helvetian banking policy

​Feb. 7, 2012, 6:40 a.m. EST

Jordan: Won't tolerate test of Swiss franc ceiling

"This commitment applies at any time, from the moment the markets open in Sydney on Monday to when it closes in New York on Friday," said Thomas Jordan, in remarks prepared for delivery in Geneva. "We will not tolerate any trading below the minimum rate in the relevant interbank market. To enforce this policy, we are prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary," he said, adding that the SNB was ready to take further measures "if the economic outlook and the risk of deflation so require."

---

​With what, exactly?

ClinkinKY
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:55am
boatman
Feb 7, 2012 - 6:57am

@Fred Hayek

last august even the hedgies went to gold on US debt ceiling debacle and downgrade to AA.

we will be there again, no doubt.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6AM beatdowns........morning LBME gold price fix is at 530EST an extended time price fix for big commercial acccounts to use.........they do NOT want to be hung out on the high side for 5 1/2 hrs til the next one.

'course sinister short forces like to pile on........its convenient.

LBME OPENS at 2:55 AM EST...........beatdowns also originate then.

yesterday's holmes analysis

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1328538221.php

ClinkinKY
Feb 7, 2012 - 7:24am

I Believe They're Talking About You And Me

FBI warns of threat from anti-government extremists

WASHINGTON | Mon Feb 6, 2012 7:21pm EST

(Reuters) - Anti-government extremists opposed to taxes and regulations pose a growing threat to local law enforcement officers in the United States, the FBI warned on Monday.

These extremists, sometimes known as "sovereign citizens," believe they can live outside any type of government authority, FBI agents said at a news conference.

The extremists may refuse to pay taxes, defy government environmental regulations and believe the United States went bankrupt by going off the gold standard.

Routine encounters with police can turn violent "at the drop of a hat," said Stuart McArthur, deputy assistant director in the FBI's counterterrorism division.

"We thought it was important to increase the visibility of the threat with state and local law enforcement," he said.

Read more:https://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-fbi-extremists-idUSTRE81600V20120207

Carbonjunkie SimplyEconomics
Feb 7, 2012 - 7:31am

We are here now

@ simply economics

Great chart, can you tell me what chart you have over layed from?

I am assuming its gold 77 - 79.

My research says we are more at the start of 79. so later in the cycle and closer to a parabolic blow off.

My chart below shows todays action.

My chart below shows the 79- 80 retest and breakout which so far is looking identical to the action since last summers breakout and the retest at Christmas..

Green Lantern Smiddywesson
Feb 7, 2012 - 7:37am

@smiddywesson

The issue for me isn't whether we have hyperinflation or deflation. The issue for me is they are destroying the currency through spending and debt.

You are absolutely correct!! In the economic history of the US, despite years of being on a gold and bimetal standard, we experienced recessions, panics and many boom and bust cycles. There were times the US was shipping all it's gold over to Europe to pay for it's debt and despite an "oversupply" of silver, people went hungry. Inflation and hyperinflation is a result of over spending. And then you need to inflate the money supply to pay for your insane appetite for global expansion. Investing in precious metals is a way to protect yourself in inflation. But individuals and countries, must eliminate the behaviors and desires that create debt. Being in debt with gold or fiat currency is still the samething. You don't have it to spend.

ClinkinKY
Feb 7, 2012 - 7:37am
Dr Durden
Feb 7, 2012 - 7:46am

The "obsession"

Is over the short-term implications.

As you likely know, volume and participation have decreased considerably post-MFG. This leaves us with The Cartels and The WOPRs as the primary determinants of paper price. Most WOPRs are set to buy/sell based upon minute movements in the POSX.

There you go. I hope that restores some of the site's credibility for you.

Be Prepared
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:05am

@ClinkinKY - Ewwww!

There's something really revolting about that picture.... I am truly getting sick just looking at it.......

Fr. Bill Fr. Bill
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:06am

Turd's Best Guess Revisited

At 3:08 PM on Monday, we read:

Mayor Turd wrote:
My best guess is that the POSX will break higher at some point later this week (Greece, Syria, Iran...something causes a flight to The Pig). This will cause the PMs to break lower. Gold trades thru 1705 and trips some sell stops. It falls all the way to 1680 before stopping. Silver drops through 33 and 32.80, trips some stops and declines all the way through 32 before slowing.

Here we are, then, about 14 hours later and ...

  • POSX has moved from 79.15 to 79.35 (up 0.20 and rising as I type this)
  • Gold has moved from 1721 to 1712 (down $9)
  • Silver has moved from 33.75 to 33.25 (down $0.50)

And this with nothing dramatic changing with Iran or Syria. Maybe the Greek fire-drill?

At any rate, I've got another bowl of popcorn ready to munch on as I check the charts today. And those FRNs are sitting quietly in my BV account, waiting for the next leg down for silver. Or two legs down.

steveo California Lawyer
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:17am

Lets hope it stays a slow

Lets hope it stays a slow motion train wreck, years are not enough to prepare in full, yet months can make a huge difference.

Tecumseh
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:19am

Short vs Long Term

If there is one thing of which I am fairly certain, it is that in the LONG term, gold and silver will at least double from where they are (2015). However, in the SHORT term, the PMs will be on a roller coaster. The general, LONG term trend is up, but along the way, in the SHORT term, there will be declines, some very steep--the ones that make you scream. Just like on the roller coaster, however, you are best advised to just raise your arms into the air and enjoy the ride. At least if you are in it for the LONG term. Patience will be rewarded here. How could it be otherwise. The Euro is dead and the dollar, while propped up by all sorts of shenanigans and sentiment, is dying. It is on artificial life support. The West's debt simply can never be paid, which is why the U.S. just keeps piling it on--in the end, the U.S., like Europe, will default. China and other international creditors have already started moving away from the dollar as fast as possible without scaring off the herd. So, who will get scammed the most? Why, that would be you and me, at least insofar as we own dollars. And don't forget the big monied interests are in bed with the U.S. govt and Fed on the whole shebang. They will come out okay. It is working America that will be scammed in the end, just as with all of the other bailouts and payoffs over the last few years. The dollar may last to 2015 or 2016, but not much beyond. In the meantime, get onto the PM roller coaster and ride it LONG term, to the top.

Smiddywesson
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:28am

@GreenLantern

Re: AutomaticEarth's calling out ZeroHedge for being too bullish

The ironic thing is AutomaticEarth is calling out ZeroHedge for being too bullish because a drop in PM prices are possible, while completely ignoring that being overly emotional about these short term price fluctuations makes one overly bearish and unable to prepare for the probable destruction of the currency. In light of gold and silver's performance over the last decade, and the forces converging on a collapse, I'd rather be overly bullish than bearish on PMs.

If we have been in deflation since 2007, and deflation is bad for PMs, then why are PMs still rising? After the 2008 example, these continuing cautionary pieces are just scare mongering.

Monedas
Feb 7, 2012 - 8:34am

What correction ?

Doesn't a correction have to be at least 5% ? This isn't even a "Burp In The Bathtub" ! Monedas 2012 Market Econometrics Standards Committee

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5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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