All Eyes On The Pig

174
Mon, Feb 6, 2012 - 4:08pm

Lots of thisses and thats today regarding the precious metals. I suppose that some commentary has merit but, really, it's all about The Pig.

First, though, I'm confident that there is a concerted effort being taken to "correct" the price of gold. Last week's CoT was lousy and I'm sure that the brief rally through 1750 late last week was allowed by The Cartel as an attempt to suck in a few more spec longs before putting the hammer down...and the hammer is falling as I type. Gold was first savagely attacked after the spectacularly manipulated BLSBS number on Friday. Then, as gold was attempting to rally overnight, the goons on the LBMA put the wood to it. Gold would have certainly fallen even farther on the Comex today had it not been for a pesky little Pig that failed to cooperate.

As stated in the last post, gold has risen almost 15% from the low of 1535 in late December to the high last week of 1765. A 5% correction should not only be expected, it should be welcomed. Though I expect support between 1705 and 1720, I am hoping for a quick drop to 1680 or so. At that point, we would have our 5% correction and I would be a ready and willing buyer.

OK, back to The Pig. After falling sharply eight days ago after the FOMC "QE to Infinity" announcement, the March POSX has stabilized and is now rangebound between 78.80 and 79.60. Which way this range breaks will be the directional determinant of the next leg of the PM trade. Note that while Pigatha has been stuck for 8 days so, too, has silver been stuck in a similar range. Silver is trading as a simple inverse of The POSX. You saw it today. Silver was falling sharply right after the Comex open but turned and reversed in a nice little FUBM as soon as The Pig rolled over at 9:00 am. Pigatha's rally saved silver today. Tomorrow or Wednesday we may not be so lucky. Additionally, using the same math as we did on gold, silver rallied almost 30% from late December to last week ($26 to $34). A 10% correction in silver would certainly be possible here. That would take us back to maybe 31 or 31.50.

So, here's what we know:

  1. The Cartel wants to force a gold correction.
  2. Silver is trading as a nearly perfect inverse to the POSX.
  3. POSX is rangebound, waiting on news to break it higher or lower.

My best guess is that the POSX will break higher at some point later this week (Greece, Syria, Iran...something causes a flight to The Pig). This will cause the PMs to break lower. Gold trades thru 1705 and trips some sell stops. It falls all the way to 1680 before stopping. Silver drops through 33 and 32.80, trips some stops and declines all the way through 32 before slowing.

One last thing before I sign off. The article below I found on Harvey's site late last week. I can't find a link and, since he reprinted the entire thing, it must be OK for me to do the same. The report is a rather interesting detail of the history of the region around the Mediterranean. Given that the headlines deteriorated again today, I thought that tonight would be a good time to post it. Here you go:

From Don Coxe, Coxe Advisors, LLP

https://www.coxeadvisors.com/Don_Coxe_-_Coxe_Advisors/Home.html
The Mediterranean in History
History buffs would argue that it is impossible to understand the effects on the world from a Mediterranean roiled by crises occurring simultaneously within both the eurozone and the Arab nations today without looking back to the Mediterranean in history.
The "Arab Spring" has focused the world's attention on the South Shore of the Mediterranean. However, most commentators on the successive revolutions supply maps of each of the states, but almost never a map of Mediterranean civilization. This is both non-historical and misleading.



Because none of the city states or countries bordering on the Mediterranean was self-sufficient in everything necessary for a secure and civilized existence—food, wine, weaponry, tools, clothing, papyruses with texts of literature, poetry, military strategy, and agriculture, and the best artefacts for praising the gods—trade was a necessity.
Since ancient times, the states and empires of the Mediterranean region have not just fought and conquered each other—but have traded with, and influenced each other.
The Cradle of Western Civilization—Then and Now
For nearly two millennia, such significance as Greece enjoyed internationally was mostly for its beautiful isles and ruins, and the Romantic dream that the gods, heroes and geniuses embodied in "The Glory That Was Greece" somehow lingered in Olympus, Delphi, and Athens. Recently, it became the source of the Olympic Flame. Even more recently, it became the first of the overindebted underachievers to go broke because of its own profligacy.
In the six centuries before the Christian era, Greece was the leading intellectual and cultural force of the Northern Mediterranean. Alexander the Great spread that influence as far East as the borders of India. His legacy also proved decisive for Egypt.
The Ptolemy dynasty which continued to Egypt after his death until the suicide of Cleopatra, staked its claim to divinity through descent from his mother. In the three centuries of Ptolemaic rule, Alexandria became the intellectual and artistic capital of the Mediterranean and, in its library, the pre-eminent storehouse of Greek culture.
When Julius Caesar's nephew Octavian was given the title of Emperor Augustus, there were three major culture centers—Athens, Alexandria and Rome—of which Rome was the least distinguished. His rule ended the Hellenistic era which had begun with Alexander—the golden age of Grecian cultural dominance of the Mediterranean.
The Romans called the Mediterranean "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea)—both as an assertion of Rome's ability to project military power across it, and their hope that Poseidon would treat Roman shipping favorably—the Mediterranean being notably storm-tossed, particularly during the winds of winter.
Julius Caesar conquered Britain and Gaul, but could hardly wait to come to Egypt, staying in Alexandria for nearly two years. It was not only the near-divine cultural center of the Mediterranean—but was Rome's biggest grain supplier. Rome hadn't been able to feed its citizens and legions for centuries. It relied on conquests and trade—and trade was usually more reliable.
Rome annexed Egypt when Octavian won the sea battle over Antony and Cleopatra's fleet at Actium in 31 BC. Until then, Rome had to form shifting alliances with the powers in Egypt and the Near East.
Prior to the rise of Islam, the Mediterranean was the center of the known world, and could be described as one huge—albeit diverse—community, which included citizens resident across the region. That was how Saint Paul saw it: when captured, he announced, "Civis Romanus Sum"—gaining the right to trial in Rome. The Catholic Church became the great unifying force across the region when Rome entered decline.
Then Islam swept through the South shore, and West and East shores, being thrown back only after centuries of struggle.
Today, the Mediterranean is two civilizations in simultaneous, rapidly unfolding crises. To date, those crises have been largely unrelated. That may well be about to change.
On the North and West shores, it is a nominally Christian community in which the church is a declining force. On the South and East shores, apart from Israel, it is an Islamic community in which religion is a stronger political and social force than at any time since the Ottoman Empire entered decline.
An equally important divide is demography. Europe is in the middle stages of demographic collapse on the Japanese model, with a fertility rate of approximately 1.3 babies per female—far below the replacement rate of 2.1—each new generation is roughly 60% of its predecessor, making the third generation roughly 40% the size of the first. That loss of the basic dynamism of human progress is an insuperable force for declining economic activity: GDP is output per worker multiplied by the number of workers. During and after the Baby Boom years, this meant annual growth in the number of potential workers and first-time home buyers. Today, that shrinking and aging population is a downward drag on real estate prices and employment opportunities, since home building and servicing are such huge job contributors.
For many years, tourism was the most reliable source of income of Mediterranean PIIGS as their economies became less competitive, but the demographic decline among the Northern European nations and the strong euro have proved painful for hotels, tour operators, sailboat charterers and restaurants. La dolce vita rests on reliable cash flows.
The third major divide within the Mediterranean region is education. On the North shore, literacy is near-universal and higher education trains millions of young people for the jobs global economic growth offers. That so many millions of them are unemployed is due to slow economic growth, guild and union laws, and other over-regulation that stultifies competition and progress.
In the South, education is a double-edged scimitar. Illiteracy is widespread, which means a huge percentage of the population is destitute or on the edge of economic disaster—like the poor Tunisian street vendor whose self immolation launched the most dramatic geopolitical developments in the Mediterranean since a Serbian anarchist killed Austria's Grand-Duke.
However, most of the Arab revolutions were launched by educated young people who could not find worthwhile employment in their largely dysfunctional economies. Cell phones and computers are ubiquitous, but there are few new manufacturing and service industries emerging. Young people envy the fast-developing prosperity of their generation across so many emerging economies, and blame their sclerotic regimes for their lack of opportunities.
Paradoxically, the biggest political winners from the sacrifices of the local youthful educated elites are the parties with no coherent economic growth agenda, just the mantra that "Islam is the answer." These parties were minor contributors to the miracles of Tahrir Square and its neighboring countries. But the dedication and organization of the Islamist parties, including the 8th Century purist version called Salafists, has meant that the divisions among the varying liberal or moderate factions have given power to them in Egypt.
In the Egyptian elections, the Islamists won 72% of the votes, with the Muslim Brotherhood receiving 47% and the Salafists 25%. Although the Brotherhood insists it is pluralist and tolerant, its highest-profile liberals who were so visible in its rise to power are now, according to numerous press reports, losing ground to hard-liners.
As we wrote in Basic Points while enthusiasm for the Arab Spring was running high across the world, the record for autocratic regimes toppled by idealistic liberals includes all too many tragedies. Examples: the Girondistes and their liberal allies in France lost power—and, in many cases, their heads, to the Jacobins, who were succeeded by Napoleon, who became Emperor; the Mensheviks and other liberals in Russia who seized power from the tsars in February 1917 were deposed in October by Lenin and his Bolsheviks, and were systematically annihilated thereafter.
Among the most conspicuous Egyptian victims of the Fall of Mubarak are the Coptic Christians (nearly 10% of the population), who were well-established in Egypt centuries before Islam was born, and who form a disproportionately large percentage of the educated and business-oriented citizenry. Their churches have been burnt—sometimes with worshippers inside. They have been brutalized by mobs while soldiers watched placidly. The brazen attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo also appeared to have been organized with support from elements in the army: soldiers stood by until the mob had broken through all the external barriers.
Predictable effect: tourism, Egypt's biggest foreign-currency earner, is collapsing. Foreign direct investment—heavily tourist-oriented—is on hold. Despite its massive problems, Egypt had been making modest economic progress until the army arrested Mubarak and embarked on an erratic program of crisis management, which has triggered double-digit inflation and a sharp fall in the nation’s modest forex reserves. Its decision to reject an IMF loan in June, because the terms were “insulting” has forced the interim government to borrow locally, thereby draining liquidity from the economy. The new Muslim Brotherhood government talks of modernizing the economy, but long-range planning and investment cannot be implemented in a crisis. The Salafists were elected by the poorest of the poor, and they are adamant that the food and energy subsidies that are draining the treasury must continue.
Remarkably, the other big divide between North and South is faith in democracy.
The unifying cry across the South Shore has been the demand for democracy, for which thousands of mostly young and mostly liberal people suffered imprisonment, torture or death.
Such idealism is at bay on the North Shore: the two cradle nations of Mediterranean democracy—Greece and Italy—which were democratic while Spain and Portugal were still dictatorships, have been forced by the eurocrisis to forsake rule by elections. They have fired their top political leaders in favor of elite Eurocrat replacements acceptable to the European Central Bank and Brussels.
Even when Alexander the Great was conquering the eastern Mediterranean and Southern Asia, the lives and fortunes of most people on earth were unaffected.
Not today. The so-called "Cradle of Western Civilization" is rocking amid strong winds from both sides of the sea; if it falls, the economic and geopolitical effects will be enormous.
Conclusion
The eurozone's problems and the Arab Spring have, to date, been discussed in the media as discrete occurrences.
However, for the first time since the Second World War, most of the nations in the region face crises simultaneously, which suggests huge potential instability.
The key reason Italy broke its long, lucrative Libyan relationship, and enthusiastically supported the NATO attacks was the flood of Libyan refugees pouring into Italy. Libya's cash flow problems could be temporary, because its substantial production of light crude oil should shortly resume, but in its attempts at nation-building it faces the same internal conflicts between liberals and Islamists as Egypt. Already, pro-Gadhafi supporters have taken over one town and proclaimed a rebellion.
Sadly, it is almost inevitable that the North Shore will soon face serious refugee problems as the non-oil South Shore nations are torn with internal divisions the dictators had suppressed, and their fragile, uncompetitive economies implode. Iran managed to survive as a brutal Shia theocracy because it inherited a society of well-educated men and women—with a strong agricultural and trading base in which entrepreneurialism flourished—and because of its immense reserves of oil and gas. (Fortunately, Iran is unlikely to be a major meddler in the Mediterranean crises, because the populations are largely Sunni.)
Beleaguered governments frequently resort to distracting their citizenry by blaming foreign enemies. Israel has been blamed for nearly all Mideast problems for decades—by Arab propagandists and by the global Left. It has peace treaties with two neighbors—Jordan and Egypt. The Egyptian Army rulers were careful not to suggest that the Israel treaty should be torn up, as some of the candidates for office were demanding, partly because of American aid. However, it was to be “reviewed”. We saw Jordan’s King Abdullah being interviewed on US TV and he expressed concern about demands from radicals to revoke the Israel treaty, but said that it was crucial that Israel re-start its negotiations with the Palestinians, because the one issue uniting “all Arabs” was insistence on settling that question for once and for all.
Good luck with that.
The eurocrisis has been front and center for nearly two years, during which time the economic and financial fundamentals have continued to deteriorate. “The Arab Spring” came suddenly, in a series of outbursts of optimism. It may have come at the worst possible time for the beleaguered nations of the North Shore.
The Mediterranean has entered one of the stormiest periods in recorded history. It is the major contributor to risk in global equity markets. It is too soon to predict how these crises will end.
The Cradle of Civilization is rocking amid an array of winds and storms.

That's all, folks. See you Tuesday. TF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBzJGckMYO4

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  174 Comments

Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:42pm

Wow, stellar post! A

Wow, stellar post! A correction in silver to $31 makes it juicy for a trade from there to the next band of resistance.

From a technical standpoint the Pig looks to be in poor form. I guess that doesn't matter when it comes to manufacturing headlines.

sixdollarsilver
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:44pm

Nice one TF

1680/32 would be just awse in my books.

A little strength in euro the last 24 hours, but I think we'll see 1.29 before 1.33

Tyler
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:46pm
Exbroker
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:47pm

I'm about as worried here as I was when I was buying Gold at 250

I love what they hate. I loved USG @ 1.00. Always be a contrarian. And be very....very patient.

Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:50pm

Fed won't allow 85-87 anymore

Fed won't allow anything over 85-87 anymore than they will allow 65-67. The Pig is one giant rangebound beast, rollling around in its own feces and soiling itself from 72-82. 85-87 may happen, and that would decapitate PMs...in the short term :)

Exbroker Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:50pm

My nuke says

The pig does nothing but sit on its ass for a long time.

Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:53pm
Exbroker Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:56pm

Well...

you would think that a falling dollar would scare people into metals. The world as we knew it is pretty screwed up. That's the way it is supposed to be. And, if that is the case...all of the Gold and all of the Silver will do nothing for us.

Exbroker Dr G
Feb 6, 2012 - 4:59pm

Yah....

They kind of overstepped their bounds. People are starting to wake up.

Feb 6, 2012 - 5:13pm

Euro History Lesson, Thanks for That, Turd; and Some Thoughts

One cannot plan for future events without mastering an understanding of the history of western civilization. My educational foundations left me sorely lacking in any of this history. What I did learn was sanitized, from a propagandist point of view.

Today, that is still the same teaching.

Only when one pulls back the layers of obfuscation, and tries to dig deep, and understand the incentives behind the history-writing, can one then begin to understand. I have tried to learn as much as possible, from all sources, without rejecting any source out of hand, but instead trying to see where all the points of view come from, and how they can mesh and form a comprehensive fabric.

Richard Maybury first got me to thinking along these terms. His stuff is truly without equal. It is small-minded to think in terms of nations, or political boundaries, largely drawn out of expediency, by those without knowledge, from positions earned solely through being on the right side of the conflict when decisions regarding new boundaries and spoils are made. Anyhow, it is all so crystal clear as to how it is unfolding, I just had to chime in. It does relate to PM's as well, on a overarching fiat-is-worthless type analysis.

Huge credit goes to Green Lantern. He correctly notes Maybury's two universal laws, which I 100% agree with. I would have no job if these laws were adhered to!! But, that also shows the damn near impossibility of trying to actually live in accordance with those two laws, that I have no shortage of work, and our prisons are full, etc.

Anyhow, I happen to also be a student of the Bible, which is of itself a fantastic historical work, as well as a work of prophecy. It is a work with which to be familiar, irrespective of one's religious proclivity.

On one note, I think about how the end times is described in Revelation. I cannot shake one concept loose from my thoughts. There have been many things that have indeed come to pass as predicted by Revelation. The mark of the beast? Easy, computers, especially the bar code scanners. From thousands of years ago, how would a scribe write about an all-knowing device that magically tracks transactions, without paper or other physical linkage, except from someone inputing their PIN code or swiping their ATM or credit card? No man can buy or sell without the mark of the beast. Pretty prescient, huh?

There are other predictions, too. Big ones, like that a great leader emerges, tribulations, a great, bloody war, then longstanding peace. Think those are just fantasy, or coming all too close to reality? USA diplomatic relations severed in Syria? Iran war drums? Libya? These are just in recent memory. Think about the Gulf Wars, that have allowed massive military infrastructure to take root in the middle east? In 1985, did anyone think that there would be not one, but TWO great world wars in the middle east? Did anyone think that Russia would collapse within twenty years of the hostages being taken in Iran? We are living in some fantastic times right now, and I hope everyone is paying attention.

Europe is drifting, leaderless, while the Euro seems destined to fail and collapse, bringing unimaginable chaos. Surely, some statesman or stateswoman will emerge to rescue the continent, right? There is no other choice, collapse (with chaos, war or worse), or unity, right?

Bible prophecy calls for a leader emerging. There is only one that I can see. He is here now.

Four more years of Obummer, then, voila, suddenly, he will be the savior of Europe. There already is an international governing body, to which all nations have already surrendered their sovereignty. Dollar hegemony will end seamlessly as the new currency arises, controlled by the global sovereign governing council. One and only one chariman of this council will emerge.

If this sounds crazy, think about the global conflicts all around, the fanatical zealots who control the masses, the symbolism, even Madonna in her superbowl show was nothing but a spectacle of occult symbolism. The most watched broadcast ever, a coincidence?

I am preparing, for sure. The time line is always unknown, but thanks to Turd and the other fantastic posters here, we are at least able to make sense of things in real time, and to be able prepare before it gets really bad.

Thanks again, Turd.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 28 min 13 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 46 min 15 sec ago
by Scarecrow, 3 hours 9 min ago
by Scarecrow, 3 hours 24 min ago
by SteveW, 3 hours 38 min ago
randomness