All Eyes On The Pig

174
Mon, Feb 6, 2012 - 4:08pm

Lots of thisses and thats today regarding the precious metals. I suppose that some commentary has merit but, really, it's all about The Pig.

First, though, I'm confident that there is a concerted effort being taken to "correct" the price of gold. Last week's CoT was lousy and I'm sure that the brief rally through 1750 late last week was allowed by The Cartel as an attempt to suck in a few more spec longs before putting the hammer down...and the hammer is falling as I type. Gold was first savagely attacked after the spectacularly manipulated BLSBS number on Friday. Then, as gold was attempting to rally overnight, the goons on the LBMA put the wood to it. Gold would have certainly fallen even farther on the Comex today had it not been for a pesky little Pig that failed to cooperate.

As stated in the last post, gold has risen almost 15% from the low of 1535 in late December to the high last week of 1765. A 5% correction should not only be expected, it should be welcomed. Though I expect support between 1705 and 1720, I am hoping for a quick drop to 1680 or so. At that point, we would have our 5% correction and I would be a ready and willing buyer.

OK, back to The Pig. After falling sharply eight days ago after the FOMC "QE to Infinity" announcement, the March POSX has stabilized and is now rangebound between 78.80 and 79.60. Which way this range breaks will be the directional determinant of the next leg of the PM trade. Note that while Pigatha has been stuck for 8 days so, too, has silver been stuck in a similar range. Silver is trading as a simple inverse of The POSX. You saw it today. Silver was falling sharply right after the Comex open but turned and reversed in a nice little FUBM as soon as The Pig rolled over at 9:00 am. Pigatha's rally saved silver today. Tomorrow or Wednesday we may not be so lucky. Additionally, using the same math as we did on gold, silver rallied almost 30% from late December to last week ($26 to $34). A 10% correction in silver would certainly be possible here. That would take us back to maybe 31 or 31.50.

So, here's what we know:

  1. The Cartel wants to force a gold correction.
  2. Silver is trading as a nearly perfect inverse to the POSX.
  3. POSX is rangebound, waiting on news to break it higher or lower.

My best guess is that the POSX will break higher at some point later this week (Greece, Syria, Iran...something causes a flight to The Pig). This will cause the PMs to break lower. Gold trades thru 1705 and trips some sell stops. It falls all the way to 1680 before stopping. Silver drops through 33 and 32.80, trips some stops and declines all the way through 32 before slowing.

One last thing before I sign off. The article below I found on Harvey's site late last week. I can't find a link and, since he reprinted the entire thing, it must be OK for me to do the same. The report is a rather interesting detail of the history of the region around the Mediterranean. Given that the headlines deteriorated again today, I thought that tonight would be a good time to post it. Here you go:

From Don Coxe, Coxe Advisors, LLP

https://www.coxeadvisors.com/Don_Coxe_-_Coxe_Advisors/Home.html
The Mediterranean in History
History buffs would argue that it is impossible to understand the effects on the world from a Mediterranean roiled by crises occurring simultaneously within both the eurozone and the Arab nations today without looking back to the Mediterranean in history.
The "Arab Spring" has focused the world's attention on the South Shore of the Mediterranean. However, most commentators on the successive revolutions supply maps of each of the states, but almost never a map of Mediterranean civilization. This is both non-historical and misleading.



Because none of the city states or countries bordering on the Mediterranean was self-sufficient in everything necessary for a secure and civilized existence—food, wine, weaponry, tools, clothing, papyruses with texts of literature, poetry, military strategy, and agriculture, and the best artefacts for praising the gods—trade was a necessity.
Since ancient times, the states and empires of the Mediterranean region have not just fought and conquered each other—but have traded with, and influenced each other.
The Cradle of Western Civilization—Then and Now
For nearly two millennia, such significance as Greece enjoyed internationally was mostly for its beautiful isles and ruins, and the Romantic dream that the gods, heroes and geniuses embodied in "The Glory That Was Greece" somehow lingered in Olympus, Delphi, and Athens. Recently, it became the source of the Olympic Flame. Even more recently, it became the first of the overindebted underachievers to go broke because of its own profligacy.
In the six centuries before the Christian era, Greece was the leading intellectual and cultural force of the Northern Mediterranean. Alexander the Great spread that influence as far East as the borders of India. His legacy also proved decisive for Egypt.
The Ptolemy dynasty which continued to Egypt after his death until the suicide of Cleopatra, staked its claim to divinity through descent from his mother. In the three centuries of Ptolemaic rule, Alexandria became the intellectual and artistic capital of the Mediterranean and, in its library, the pre-eminent storehouse of Greek culture.
When Julius Caesar's nephew Octavian was given the title of Emperor Augustus, there were three major culture centers—Athens, Alexandria and Rome—of which Rome was the least distinguished. His rule ended the Hellenistic era which had begun with Alexander—the golden age of Grecian cultural dominance of the Mediterranean.
The Romans called the Mediterranean "Mare Nostrum" (Our Sea)—both as an assertion of Rome's ability to project military power across it, and their hope that Poseidon would treat Roman shipping favorably—the Mediterranean being notably storm-tossed, particularly during the winds of winter.
Julius Caesar conquered Britain and Gaul, but could hardly wait to come to Egypt, staying in Alexandria for nearly two years. It was not only the near-divine cultural center of the Mediterranean—but was Rome's biggest grain supplier. Rome hadn't been able to feed its citizens and legions for centuries. It relied on conquests and trade—and trade was usually more reliable.
Rome annexed Egypt when Octavian won the sea battle over Antony and Cleopatra's fleet at Actium in 31 BC. Until then, Rome had to form shifting alliances with the powers in Egypt and the Near East.
Prior to the rise of Islam, the Mediterranean was the center of the known world, and could be described as one huge—albeit diverse—community, which included citizens resident across the region. That was how Saint Paul saw it: when captured, he announced, "Civis Romanus Sum"—gaining the right to trial in Rome. The Catholic Church became the great unifying force across the region when Rome entered decline.
Then Islam swept through the South shore, and West and East shores, being thrown back only after centuries of struggle.
Today, the Mediterranean is two civilizations in simultaneous, rapidly unfolding crises. To date, those crises have been largely unrelated. That may well be about to change.
On the North and West shores, it is a nominally Christian community in which the church is a declining force. On the South and East shores, apart from Israel, it is an Islamic community in which religion is a stronger political and social force than at any time since the Ottoman Empire entered decline.
An equally important divide is demography. Europe is in the middle stages of demographic collapse on the Japanese model, with a fertility rate of approximately 1.3 babies per female—far below the replacement rate of 2.1—each new generation is roughly 60% of its predecessor, making the third generation roughly 40% the size of the first. That loss of the basic dynamism of human progress is an insuperable force for declining economic activity: GDP is output per worker multiplied by the number of workers. During and after the Baby Boom years, this meant annual growth in the number of potential workers and first-time home buyers. Today, that shrinking and aging population is a downward drag on real estate prices and employment opportunities, since home building and servicing are such huge job contributors.
For many years, tourism was the most reliable source of income of Mediterranean PIIGS as their economies became less competitive, but the demographic decline among the Northern European nations and the strong euro have proved painful for hotels, tour operators, sailboat charterers and restaurants. La dolce vita rests on reliable cash flows.
The third major divide within the Mediterranean region is education. On the North shore, literacy is near-universal and higher education trains millions of young people for the jobs global economic growth offers. That so many millions of them are unemployed is due to slow economic growth, guild and union laws, and other over-regulation that stultifies competition and progress.
In the South, education is a double-edged scimitar. Illiteracy is widespread, which means a huge percentage of the population is destitute or on the edge of economic disaster—like the poor Tunisian street vendor whose self immolation launched the most dramatic geopolitical developments in the Mediterranean since a Serbian anarchist killed Austria's Grand-Duke.
However, most of the Arab revolutions were launched by educated young people who could not find worthwhile employment in their largely dysfunctional economies. Cell phones and computers are ubiquitous, but there are few new manufacturing and service industries emerging. Young people envy the fast-developing prosperity of their generation across so many emerging economies, and blame their sclerotic regimes for their lack of opportunities.
Paradoxically, the biggest political winners from the sacrifices of the local youthful educated elites are the parties with no coherent economic growth agenda, just the mantra that "Islam is the answer." These parties were minor contributors to the miracles of Tahrir Square and its neighboring countries. But the dedication and organization of the Islamist parties, including the 8th Century purist version called Salafists, has meant that the divisions among the varying liberal or moderate factions have given power to them in Egypt.
In the Egyptian elections, the Islamists won 72% of the votes, with the Muslim Brotherhood receiving 47% and the Salafists 25%. Although the Brotherhood insists it is pluralist and tolerant, its highest-profile liberals who were so visible in its rise to power are now, according to numerous press reports, losing ground to hard-liners.
As we wrote in Basic Points while enthusiasm for the Arab Spring was running high across the world, the record for autocratic regimes toppled by idealistic liberals includes all too many tragedies. Examples: the Girondistes and their liberal allies in France lost power—and, in many cases, their heads, to the Jacobins, who were succeeded by Napoleon, who became Emperor; the Mensheviks and other liberals in Russia who seized power from the tsars in February 1917 were deposed in October by Lenin and his Bolsheviks, and were systematically annihilated thereafter.
Among the most conspicuous Egyptian victims of the Fall of Mubarak are the Coptic Christians (nearly 10% of the population), who were well-established in Egypt centuries before Islam was born, and who form a disproportionately large percentage of the educated and business-oriented citizenry. Their churches have been burnt—sometimes with worshippers inside. They have been brutalized by mobs while soldiers watched placidly. The brazen attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo also appeared to have been organized with support from elements in the army: soldiers stood by until the mob had broken through all the external barriers.
Predictable effect: tourism, Egypt's biggest foreign-currency earner, is collapsing. Foreign direct investment—heavily tourist-oriented—is on hold. Despite its massive problems, Egypt had been making modest economic progress until the army arrested Mubarak and embarked on an erratic program of crisis management, which has triggered double-digit inflation and a sharp fall in the nation’s modest forex reserves. Its decision to reject an IMF loan in June, because the terms were “insulting” has forced the interim government to borrow locally, thereby draining liquidity from the economy. The new Muslim Brotherhood government talks of modernizing the economy, but long-range planning and investment cannot be implemented in a crisis. The Salafists were elected by the poorest of the poor, and they are adamant that the food and energy subsidies that are draining the treasury must continue.
Remarkably, the other big divide between North and South is faith in democracy.
The unifying cry across the South Shore has been the demand for democracy, for which thousands of mostly young and mostly liberal people suffered imprisonment, torture or death.
Such idealism is at bay on the North Shore: the two cradle nations of Mediterranean democracy—Greece and Italy—which were democratic while Spain and Portugal were still dictatorships, have been forced by the eurocrisis to forsake rule by elections. They have fired their top political leaders in favor of elite Eurocrat replacements acceptable to the European Central Bank and Brussels.
Even when Alexander the Great was conquering the eastern Mediterranean and Southern Asia, the lives and fortunes of most people on earth were unaffected.
Not today. The so-called "Cradle of Western Civilization" is rocking amid strong winds from both sides of the sea; if it falls, the economic and geopolitical effects will be enormous.
Conclusion
The eurozone's problems and the Arab Spring have, to date, been discussed in the media as discrete occurrences.
However, for the first time since the Second World War, most of the nations in the region face crises simultaneously, which suggests huge potential instability.
The key reason Italy broke its long, lucrative Libyan relationship, and enthusiastically supported the NATO attacks was the flood of Libyan refugees pouring into Italy. Libya's cash flow problems could be temporary, because its substantial production of light crude oil should shortly resume, but in its attempts at nation-building it faces the same internal conflicts between liberals and Islamists as Egypt. Already, pro-Gadhafi supporters have taken over one town and proclaimed a rebellion.
Sadly, it is almost inevitable that the North Shore will soon face serious refugee problems as the non-oil South Shore nations are torn with internal divisions the dictators had suppressed, and their fragile, uncompetitive economies implode. Iran managed to survive as a brutal Shia theocracy because it inherited a society of well-educated men and women—with a strong agricultural and trading base in which entrepreneurialism flourished—and because of its immense reserves of oil and gas. (Fortunately, Iran is unlikely to be a major meddler in the Mediterranean crises, because the populations are largely Sunni.)
Beleaguered governments frequently resort to distracting their citizenry by blaming foreign enemies. Israel has been blamed for nearly all Mideast problems for decades—by Arab propagandists and by the global Left. It has peace treaties with two neighbors—Jordan and Egypt. The Egyptian Army rulers were careful not to suggest that the Israel treaty should be torn up, as some of the candidates for office were demanding, partly because of American aid. However, it was to be “reviewed”. We saw Jordan’s King Abdullah being interviewed on US TV and he expressed concern about demands from radicals to revoke the Israel treaty, but said that it was crucial that Israel re-start its negotiations with the Palestinians, because the one issue uniting “all Arabs” was insistence on settling that question for once and for all.
Good luck with that.
The eurocrisis has been front and center for nearly two years, during which time the economic and financial fundamentals have continued to deteriorate. “The Arab Spring” came suddenly, in a series of outbursts of optimism. It may have come at the worst possible time for the beleaguered nations of the North Shore.
The Mediterranean has entered one of the stormiest periods in recorded history. It is the major contributor to risk in global equity markets. It is too soon to predict how these crises will end.
The Cradle of Civilization is rocking amid an array of winds and storms.

That's all, folks. See you Tuesday. TF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBzJGckMYO4

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  174 Comments

SimplyEconomics
Feb 6, 2012 - 6:59pm
¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:02pm
boatman
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:06pm

DO NOT "SIT" IN LEVERAGED FUNDS

fine for trades tho but: needs to be said again......they decay over TIME!

its mathmatics:

https://www.safehaven.com/article/23812/mind-the-leverage-it-might-kill-...

boatman
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:12pm

@davidof8

i saw suttemeiers piece a freind sent it.

as long as real interest rates stay below 2, esp. below 0, gold goes up.

gold always does well in DOW secular bear markets.....they last 14-18 years this one started in '00.

the kress/kondrateif supercycle low is in oct., '13.

this is the biggest debt/credit bubble the world has ever seen.....7tril$ derivatives in '71.....700tril$ in '11

i could go on n on.....this since jan 1 koolaid goes on for awhile but does not make it past march eu referendums.

the dollar can get a lift, but the fear factor makes PM's at least flat....and staying flat in a rising dollar is a coiled spring.

this is far from over.

WHY GOLD IS NOT OVER:

https://www.safehaven.com/article/24284/bubbles-come-bubbles-go

Fr. Bill
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:14pm

Turd's Best Guess

Mayor Turd wrote:
My best guess is that the POSX will break higher at some point later this week (Greece, Syria, Iran...something causes a flight to The Pig). This will cause the PMs to break lower. Gold trades thru 1705 and trips some sell stops. It falls all the way to 1680 before stopping. Silver drops through 33 and 32.80, trips some stops and declines all the way through 32 before slowing.

I was most interested to read this, since I teleported a wad of FRNs to BV in London this morning. So, I'm standing by, watching the chart of the prices, waiting to turn the fiat into something solid, shiney, and white, as it sits in a Viamat vault in London.

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:17pm

U.S. Embassy in Syria Closes as Violence Flares

Associated Press

Syrian rebels gathered in an alley in Idlib, Syria, on Sunday.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/544381#comment-544381

abguy4
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:19pm

Re; Look where we are now

OK, SimplyEconomics,

I'll bite.

What's the source of the data for that chart?

birons
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:51pm

Re; Look where we are now

@SimplyEconomics

​Where did you get the data from? Have they invented time travel? lol

boatman
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:52pm
question
Feb 6, 2012 - 7:53pm

DPH/Click the Pick

I did; wish I didn't.

I'd say I wish I was a congress critter but then what an icky bunch to hang with.

Much prefer Turdville and relative poverty than the swamp they live in. How does Ron Paul deal with it for so long?

Man, that's dedication to one's ideals.

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:00pm
redwood
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:05pm
¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:06pm

Modern Marvels ~ Money

Video unavailable
Maximillion
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:13pm

So what if the price drops!

The longer I follow PM's, the more I learn, the more comical it all becomes. How much has the Cartel spent today, painting the tape, plus more money, painting the Reversal day on Fri, just to have their plans stuffed up by the Pig. IMO it's getting harder and harder for TPTB to keep on crashing the prices of PM's. Every time they do crush the price by a few $'s, I just take the opportunity to buy a bit more physical. Now I'm only a tiny insignificant fish, so if I'm doing it, then you can guarantee more wealthy/clever people than I are doing the same x $$$$$. Same for gambling on the paper market since the Dec low, I only do a dribble buy each time, then I simply buy a few more whenever they smack it down. In both cases I just treat the investment as a FUTURE high yield monthly savings scheme. So the drops just increase my eventual payout for less outlay! If the Crimex collapses, then they lose their jobs, physical stuff becomes as rare as genuine rocking horse sh*t hitting the fan, and the price of real silver /gold rockets. If the Crimex decide to give up and cover their shorts, up goes the price, they possibly survive, and I profit. If the Crimex keeps limiting the rise, I get to keep on playing along with them, until one of the above occurs. IMO, thankyou Crimex for all of your efforts, in enhancing my timeframe for planning my families future! PS; To the Crimex (in case you're watching)If you'd like to just crash the price to $0.000000001 per oz of Silver now, then it would save all of this sillyness, I'll take everything you've got now!

Fred Hayek
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:33pm

Are we so sure there will be a flight to the pig?

To keep the metaphor going, in some recent events that might've been expected to cause a flight to safety, investors all turned out to be orthodox jews and devout muslims.

Since 2008, hasn't the previous reflex of the dollar being the flight to safety favorite diminished considerably?

One of these calamities, the money will go straight to the PM's.

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:36pm

A Short history of American Money, From Fur to Fiat

A Short history of American Money, From Fur to Fiat

February 6, 2012

What do animal pelts, tobacco, fake wampum, gold, and cotton-paper bank notes have in common? At one point or another, they've all stood for the same thing: U.S. currency.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/544403#comment-544403

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:42pm
Be Prepared
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:54pm

Start Today with a Plan...

Start Tomorrow with taking the steps necessary to put that Plan in motion....

2012...whether prophetic or apocalyptic matters not....because just thinking about all this information will act as a grand shield and protect you when the real SHTF...

It's easy to be lulled into complacency and believe your time horizon is off in the distance too far to see.... when everything becomes obvious to everyone it will be too late for you, as an Early Awakened Person (EAP), to do anything other than be trampled by the hysteria that will be sure to be running rampant.....

So why should you Write a SHTF Plan for you and your family? Why write any goal down?

The answer is a simple question: “ Have you set clear, written goals for your future and made plans to accomplish them? ” In 1979, interviewers asked new graduates from the Harvard’s MBA Program and found that :

  • 84% had no specific goals at all
  • 13% had goals but they were not committed to paper
  • 3% had clear, written goals and plans to accomplish them

In 1989, the interviewers again interviewed the graduates of that class. You can guess the results:

  • The 13% of the class who had goals were earning, on average, twice as much as the 84 percent who had no goals at all.
  • Even more staggering – the three percent who had clear, written goals were earning, on average, ten times as much as the other 97 percent put together.

(Source: from the book What They Don’t Teach You in the Harvard Business School , by Mark McCormack )

The Act of Writing a defined Plan of Action that details exactly what you are going to do... when you are going to do it....and what you will need.... will do wonders for your peace of mind and provide an excellent opportunity to get your family involved in taking control over whatever aspects of the coming future they are able to... now.

I don't endorse the LDS, but they are an organization focused on preparing....the linked plan is just a starting point and should help get your juices flowing....besides they share it freely.... remember Be Prepared! :-)

LDS Preparedness Manual

NW VIEW
Feb 6, 2012 - 8:55pm

@ CALIFORNIA & MORE HISTORY

SENECA (4BC-64AD): "All men are desirous to live happy, yet blind to the means of that blessedness. As long as we wander hither and thither, and follow not our guide but the dissonant clamour of those who call on us to undertake different ways, our short life is wearied and worn away amongst errors, although we labor to get us a good mind: there is nothing therefore to be more avoided than following the multitude without examination, and believing anything without judging. Let us inquire what is best done, not what is most usually done; and what planted us in the possession of eternal felicity, not what is ordinarily allowed of by the multitude, which is the worst interpreter of truth. I call the multitude , as well those that are clothed in white as those in other colours; for I examine not the colours of the garments, wherewith their bodies are clothed: I trust not mine eyes to inform me what a man is; I have a better and truer light, whereby I can distinguish truth from falsehood. Let the soul find out the good of the soul; if once she may have leisure to withdraw into herself, Oh! how will she confess, I wish all I have done were undone; and all I have said, when I recollect it, I am ashamed of it, when I now hear the like in others. These things below, whereat we gaze, and whereat we stay, and which one man with admiration shows unto another, do outwardly shine but are inwardly empty. Let us seek out somewhat that is good, not in appearance, but solid, united, and best, in that which least appears: let us discover this. Neither it is wisdom not to wander from that immortal nature, but to form ourselves according to His law and example. Blessed is the man who judgeth rightly: blessed is he who is contented with his present condition: and blessed is he who giveth ear to that immortal principle, in the government of his life". ( No Cross-No Crown P.365-6).

Be Prepared
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:04pm

The Day after the Devaluation.....

this will be the line that you will see everywhere for everything....the grocery store, the gas station, the bank... and yes, the local coin shop...

Don't get caught having to wait in too many lines.... because with lines... come this.....

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:12pm

BOJ Intervening In Yen More Then We Can Imagine/Other CB's?

Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention on Yen Threats

By Monami Yui and Shigeki Nozawa - Feb 6, 2012 7:19 PM ETTue Feb 07 00:19:17 GMT 2012

Japan 2011 Data Show MOF Sold Yen for 5 Days in 4th Quarter

Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

The rest of the story... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/544412#comment-544412

Lxan
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:19pm

@simply economics

Pic of rio?

¤
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:23pm

Nationalism: Are Europeans comfortable about being European?

The Myth of Europe

The euro crisis isn't really about money. It's about the fiction that Europeans ever existed at all.

BY GARETH HARDING |JAN/FEB 2012

When the euro officially entered circulation at the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2002, fireworks lit up the night sky across Europe to celebrate the scrapping of the French franc, German deutsche mark, Greek drachma, and a clutch of other ancient currencies. Brussels hosted an extravagant sound-and-light show, while Frankfurt unveiled a five-story statue of the freshly minted euro as a pop band belted out "With Open Arms (Euro World Song)." "I am convinced," European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg declared, that the launch of euro coins and banknotes "will appear in the history books in all our countries and beyond as the start of a new era in Europe."

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/544415#comment-544415

vamoose1
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:30pm

erudition vs brains

having dealt with don coxe for 40 years, fucking lift your iq, you are disgracing yourself, his record is a literate dogs breakfast. Grow up, be a bit more clever if you can manage it.

Be Prepared
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:47pm

Redwood - Appreciate you adding

.....you are right on the mark... planning is a skill and it takes a willingness to plough yourself into the task. It helps to realize that this plan is a living document. Your first time out of the gate doesn't have to be the end all of end alls....it just has to be your first best cut. As you learn more... add more.... change and modify... it grows as you grow.... :-}

redwood
Feb 6, 2012 - 9:50pm

Be Prepared

I fully endorse your approach and clearly from your alias you belong to that 3%....its a wonderful ability.

But I would to like elaborate a tad on the task of planning. The ability to plan is not inherent in all of us. It is depend on our "executive" functioning abilities, and there is wide range just like our height, color of eyes, etc.

The 3% who did extra well did so because that same ability followed them throughout their career. It's always the same skill set.

So having said that. Know what your planning abilities are and respond accordingly now. That's the first task of planning. What is obvious , may not be obvious at the propitious moment. Try and imagine how you might manage all aspects of your life that now just exist. For example, toilet paper may be as essential as water. Not just for practical purposes but for sanitary ones. If you have enough water, but contract Hepatitis A what have you accomplished.

The hardest part of any task is always in the planning and organization. Now is the time, because now you have time.

Just a few thoughts.

BrentLawrence
Feb 6, 2012 - 10:13pm

Big slam from Automatic Earth to Zerohedge

PMers are all about hyperinflation and the 'others' are all about deflation and a major correction of commodities that will send all the PMers home with their tail between their legs. Like here: https://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2012/01/january-31-2012-goal-seek... Pigs get rich hogs get slaughtered. When is the time to unload the PMs? We have been on an unprecedented upswing since '02 and like the housing bubble it has to end sometime....right? Irrational exuberance has sent some to the poorhouse but in the crash of 1870's(?) one could buy a hotel in San Francisco for one ounce of GOLD! I am hanging on and hope to liquidate with enough but how much is too much? (I did note that the Automatic Earth shut down on blogspot and after this post, moved here: https://theautomaticearth.org/) So there are two camps! Who wins? Who has more guns?

Dr Durden
Feb 6, 2012 - 10:22pm

Ummmmm

What?

Someone, please, for the life of me, explain to me the obsession over the UD Dollar index. I hate to say it, but this site loses more and more credibility everyday and this is one of the reasons why. TURD!?!? Bueller? Frye? ANYONE!??

SilverRunNW
Feb 6, 2012 - 10:37pm

Dollar/PM correlation

Well, though not a perfect correlation, I can clearly see, more times than not, when the dollar is generally trending higher, the PM prices are trending lower. And conversely, when the dollar is trending lower the ....... well $hit, you know the rest.

On a longer term trend line, like the 10 years or back to the start of the PM bull market, not much of a correlation at all.

MOPE at it's best over last year maybe?

Bohemian California Lawyer
Feb 6, 2012 - 10:48pm

@California Lawyer

"Did anyone think that Russia would collapse within twenty years of the hostages being taken in Iran? We are living in some fantastic times right now..."

If you mean the Iran hostage crisis, 1979-81, then -- yes. I was quite convinced that the Soviet Union and its entire block would go down. I wrote a paper on this subject, "The nature of socialist money and the problem of capitalization," in Moscow, 1977. I lived there for 5+ years, during the Brezhnev era. My conclusion was that there were some 10-12 years left. Of course, I wasn't alone who would think that, or see that coming. 2-3 years later, there were groups of people working on this transition already; as they would say, researching and preparing various alternative solutions. They wouldn't use the term "revolution". The entire communist block was financially BK in 1979-80 already.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

Recent Comments