Caution For Monday

142
Fri, Feb 3, 2012 - 4:37pm

Just a quick warning for early next week as I do not like the way things traded today.

Several things concern me for PM prices early next week.

  1. Gold and silver rose yesterday and broke through resistance on good volume and increased open interest.
  2. In light of today's action, this looks like a trap that was set by The Forces of Darkness.
  3. The PMs were pressured all day even though the POSX sold off all day and finished basically unchanged.
  4. Other "risk assets" such as stocks and copper traded higher all day
  5. Gold was then raided for $15 on the Friday afternoon Globex.
  6. Notice on the chart below that this raid occurred before a small Pig rally. Not during or after.
  7. After steps 1-6, does a Friday afternoon raid indicate that someone got word of a pending Cartel short-selling attack for Monday?

So, anyway, we'll see. DO NOT BE SURPRISED, though, if the metals take it in the shorts pretty good on Sunday night and Monday. IF they do, look for gold to drop to 1720 and potentially even 1705-1710. Silver will likely fall to 33 and even 32.80. At those points, both will present rather compelling buying opportunities.

At any rate, I hope I'm wrong and everything springs higher on Monday and all of next week. However, with both metals overdue for a little pullback and with the action we saw today, we should all be mentally prepared for some tough action early next week.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  142 Comments

Dr Durden
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:33pm

Numbness

Got a very unsettling numb feeling today on the jobs report that I haven't felt since the S&P downgrade of the US last summer.

We are quickly approaching a level of max denial and complacency. It's simply mind blowing to watch it all happen in real time. When the tide finally turns, I will laugh till I cry because of the sheer emotional whiplash.

Major stress tests still to come and the patience needed to get to the other side will be unreal.

Lord help us all.

Dr G
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:33pm

Blythe, FU. Not FUBM, just

Blythe et al, FU. Not FUBM, just FU. Plain and simple.

Have a good weekend Turdites.

EDIT: I hope you all saw it at the end of the last thread: brotherjohnf has had his website suspended due to a TOS violation. Yeah, a violation such as showing others about the red pill. Gimme a break.

Be Prepared
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:38pm

The Lost People

In many ways, most Americans are part of the Lost People. We are part of the Lost people because our most defining document, the U.S. Constitution, sits behind heavily guarded glass and steel with few bothering to read it and understand all it was meant to say and for whom it was meant to protect.....

The Lost People are the 1,126,000 jobs lost in the last two (2) months..... when you peel back all of the crap...the truth is exposed and is there for all to see.... there is no recovery. It's nice that the Government, through the hocus pocus of birth/death rate formula and the retail temp job pump for the holiday season, is making it like OBummer is leading this country to a new and promised economic land. OBummer actually had the audacity today to tell Congress not to screw up the recovery because he's doing such a great job.....what a sham and all for his desire for another 4 years of his power ego tyranny.

SEARS, BANK OF AMERICA, AMERICAN AIRLINES (13,000), BARCLAYS, MORGAN STANLEY, MICROSOFT, HSBC....these are all companies that plan to cut jobs....granted most of them are banks....so we could say thank goodness, but every job is starting to matter as the dominoes seem to be falling... The list is endless....

There is nothing in our economy that is set to flourish. We are under the misconception that given the right circumstances....industrial jobs could come flooding back to this country and that is just not the case. It takes decades to build the infrastructure, the worker skill sets and the distribution networks required to become a manufacturing base. When the Chinese can mobilize 6,000 workers at the drop of a hat to make the necessary line changes for the new Apple IPhone in under 24 hours.... it's obvious that we can't compete with that type of set up. Those workers are just a hair above slaves..... are we willing to go back to those type of conditions to compete? Most likely not.... but Money flows where the opportunities are and, even more so now, that we don't bother to protect even our most critical industries from being sent overseas. We are facing an absolutely tough economic road ahead of us because... most of the world...is doing it better and faster than we are.... I am not saying we are out of the game...just that our elected leaders are hell bent on making sure we end at the bottom of a very long barrel.

The Lost People are still asleep because the government has done much to cushion them from the reality of the abyss of poverty, but how long can you keep over 20% of your population on the dole....pay out over 30% for interest on debt service.....and face the biggest wave of Social Security claims this country has ever experienced...without imploding or reneging or revaluing. We have painted ourselves into a corner and there are no ways out they aren't extremely messy.

We have $16+ trillion reasons to know that every move we make and every step we take has to count.... there's just not enough time to dilly dally anymore, my friends. A careful and methodical plan must be crafted..... where you complete an honest and thorough assessment of your current reality.... what smart steps can be taken by squeezing the best value from every red cent you have to ensure that you are prepared and covered by the insurance of your preparedness. It's not enough to just be Awake..... you have to make sure that you're not Lost as well.

*Missed the New Thread.... repost

Biochar
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:39pm

is it any surprise?

The most heavily manipulated NFP # in history combined with a smackdown in gold...

MOPE deluxe...

Economy Good = Gold Bad

I have to keep reminding myself there are many preppers out there who arrived late to the PM scene, who need a bit more time to stack, and the beatdowns are a blessing for them

¤
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:44pm

Towing the line at $1725

Gold just buzzed along that line for the rest of the day after that 3:00 plunge with hardly any variance. At least silver was able to nudge up right the market close. Gold didn't budge.

We've had some pretty strange trading days going on lately where the USD is up and gold is up at the same time or the S&P is down and the miners are up big time. No rhyme or reason lately and it doesn't seem tied to anything the way it used to be. Heck, the dollar zipped up and gold hardly budged a couple days ago.

Strange stuff. Not sure what any of that signaled.

I thought maybe a margin hike. Nada.

Talky Tina
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:54pm

Key Outside Reversal Day?

Hi all,

I'm sure someone already covered this, but didn't we have a higher high in gold today but closed lower than yesterday? I believe the high yesterday was 1764 and the close was 1759.3. Today we reached 1765.9 but closed at 1744.8...1729 on the Globex. Isn't this considered a "key outside reversal day"? Somewhat reminiscent of August 23rd last year? Maybe just something else to be wary of on Monday.

Cheers...

s2man
Feb 3, 2012 - 5:54pm

@JimmyTheHand

RE: Silver perfomance. I told a friend today that I had picked up some more 90% coins. She said, "Too bad silver doesn't pay dividends". I wanted to quote silver's performance YTD, GSR, and potential shortages, but I just bit my lip and said, "Yeah, and you can't eat it, either". She thought it was funny, but had no idea how sarcastic I was being.

Be Prepared
Feb 3, 2012 - 6:08pm

Energy Drives the Economy

We all know that energy drives this economy...literally. The more we produce....the more jobs we have.....the more gas we consume. So, of course, that gas needs to be produced and is usually produced to meet demand or, at least, in close proximity to that range. Take a look at the chart below and you will understand just how much our economy is NOT recovering...

Supplied Gasoline is in severe decline because we are driving fewer miles due to people not needing to for employment. Even if you account for better gas mileage and production delays, the chart still makes a very clear statement about the "current" state of our economy.

bullwhip29
Feb 3, 2012 - 6:09pm

A drop to $1720 or even $1705?

If TF is correct and a serious EE smackdown (of the Aug 2011/"QE3 off the table" variety) is coming then we're most certainly going to see prices < $1700 in short order. I mean we we're looking at prices in the $1650's just a couple of weeks ago, weren't we? IMHO, this seems like a logical target initially. Just remember what Santa said about $1764. We've been through this bs countless times before, so it should not come as any big surprise. If this turns out to be the case, the chart would take on a whole different look altogether with the series of lower tops being continued. Overall, I agree with TF that something didn't smell quite right today as everything else was ripping higher while the PM's were being blatantly shot down like clay pigeons. Anyway, I hope we are not sitting ducks come Monday morning.

MetalShawn
Feb 3, 2012 - 6:11pm

Stackin'

Pretty good discount today, based on previous couple. So stacked both of the shiny things today. Investing for the long haul, so can't worry about dips in the road. Stackin' and feelin' good.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Sep 15, 2019 - 8:05am
by atarangi, Sep 15, 2019 - 3:20am
by NW VIEW, Sep 14, 2019 - 12:22pm
by Green Lantern, Sep 14, 2019 - 11:39am
by sierra skier, Sep 14, 2019 - 9:47am