January Ends. What Will February Bring?

Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:41pm

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:

Here is the updated chart:

What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.

Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.

Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Soldier Returns

Have a great overnight. TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Gene Autry

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...

Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.

Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 1, 2012 - 1:28pm
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:29pm

8 Pages ?!!!!!!!!!!

the Prediction Competition really brings the Turdites out doesn't it?

Does everyone know the Gold colored hats are NOT made of Gold (though maybe they're reverently as precious!)

...maybe it's the Silver Keiser ..no idea what that is, was it part of Max Keisers 'Bankrupt JP Morgue' campaign???

Hope Max starts that up again... though when Europe defaults that bankrupt gambling junkie Jamie Dimon is so exposed, silly twat, he'll commit financial suicide all by himself (it's his 2nd suicide attempt after 2008)

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:29pm

January Prediction Calendar

Hi Hi all you Turdites... Captain Scarlet here with the latest prediction results.

Not much of a report for the January Prediction Calendar because all the good ones were given on the last couple of days for December. And all the "good predictions", by people to numerous to mention, was that the PM bottom was in during the last days of 2011. So far so good.

And that's about it. Sorry, but the soothsayer holidays seem to be on.

Ta Ta. Shasha says "Hi"! Kiss Kiss.

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:35pm

$1964 GOLD $43.55 SILVER

1 Trillion newly printed hot off the press EUROS should bump it up i recon.

Bsong RickyBobby
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:37pm


Silver $37.23

Gold $1,847.23

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:40pm


Hey Steve, your article was linked to by survivalblog blog, today, under Economics and Investing.


Smiddywesson argent rampant
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:43pm

Cash on hand

A real crisis event of the magnitude to affect whether we should have cash or not will include a bank holiday. Some bank holidays will include zero access to your accounts, others will involve partial access with caps on how much you can withdraw each day. I would imagine caps on withdrawals are more likely, but that's a guess based on central banking having a long time to plan for this.

Other than having enough to buy groceries for a few weeks, and pay my rent, I don't keep a lot of cash on hand. I have plenty of metallic change, but no more paper money than is necessary. If I had any extra, I would buy silver with it. I think this may be a mistake.

Cash will eventually become worthless like your accounts, but so what? The bigger concern is in a doomsday financial meltdown, there will be no way to pay employees. How long do you suppose the local Walmart employees will show up in that case? With insufficient staffing, how many of these companies will refuse to open their doors? The last time around (1930s), there were mom and pop companies to extend credit to their neighbors (my grandfather lost his grocery store that way). Those small stores are gone, and the managers of the companies that replaced them don't have the authority to extend you credit to eat. This line of reasoning applies to shipping & distribution. Without letters of credit and loans, and without the employees to move the food, the shelves go bare in three days just like in the Japan earthquake. Sorry folks, due to Zero Inventory and Just-In-Time-Delivery, everything comes to a screeching halt without the banks.

In a dollar collapse, every little bit of cash that's not in your account can be quickly converted for something tangible. Many employees will show up to work as usual because they won't know initially they will never be paid. With the credit cards not working, only the people with cash will be able to buy anything, leaving you with the pick of a rapidly diminishing food supply and any gold/silver jewelry that hasn't been re-priced yet. When a bank holiday hits, everything priced in dollars will be under priced. Most people know nothing about these events, so the majority won't catch on for a few days.

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:43pm

Gold Turd Hat Contest

New lurker here. I'll try $1800.88 for gold and $40.88 for silver on Leap Day 2012; I could use a new gold hat! Thanks Turd and all you followers for all you do on this website!

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:43pm

Kirby Nails Another One

Manifest Destiny Derailed: Treason from Within

Something very unusual recently occurred in financial journalism. If you are from or rely on the mainstream western financial press as your primary means of being informed – you surely wouldn’t have noticed – because this ‘oddity’ involved a real act of investigative journalism by one Lars Schall.

Mr. Schall is a German freelance journalist who noted an ‘old quote’ of former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Volcker. Paul Volcker was the U.S. Treasury Department's undersecretary for international monetary affairs from 1969 to 1974 and became Fed chairman in 1979 – a post he held until 1987. More recently, Mr. Volcker has been a top economic advisor to President Obama. The quote that intrigued Mr. Schall was excerpted from Mr. Volcker’s memoirs and published in The Nikkei Weekly back on November 15, 2004:

"That day the United States announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake.”

Schall wondered why Mr. Volcker – a man “widely revered” with a reputation for being a serious inflation fighter back in the 1980s – had never been questioned as to “why not rigging the gold market was a mistake."

So Schall decided to put the question [appended below] to Mr. Volcker himself:

rest of article:


Feb 1, 2012 - 1:44pm

Charts and graphs

Maybe I'm an idiot, but could someone please explain to me how charts and graphs are relevant in a market as manipulated as the PM's?

argent rampant
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:47pm


LOL - Great post!

So It Goes
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:49pm

Prediction for 2/29/2012

Au = 1785

Ag = 34.85

BTW - ASE mint total for January 2012 = 6,107,000


Keep stacking.

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:50pm


Gold $1893.60

Silver $37.44

Feb 1, 2012 - 1:54pm


Does anyone else have a headache from bumping their head against $1750 all day?

Mudsharkbytes Smiddywesson
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:58pm


No, but $34 silver is giving me a migraine.

Sgt Schultz
Feb 1, 2012 - 1:59pm


Gold: $ 1821.66

Silver:$ 39.99

Early release from BM to O'bummer via E-Mail.

Good luck to all!!!!!!

Rhinestone Cowboy
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:00pm


Gold $1762.00

Silver $33.50

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:00pm

Hat Contest

Gold $1895 and Silver $40.23

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:00pm


au $ 1844.75

ag $37.50

Loud Noises
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:04pm


I've had a headache from bumping $34!!!

In both cases, the charts are straight up comical at times.

argent rampant
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:04pm

@ Smiddywesson

I like your response. No argument with any of it. I think the most important thing is to have the necessary provisions to survive for ________ weeks (fill in the number you think is prudent). You make a good point - namely that if there are no goods to buy, even cash will be of no help.

The intent of my post was primarily to question our tacit assumption that there will be hyperinflation in the way that it has historically occurred in other countries. I think it is possible the liquidity injections of the FED may have no effect on the supply of money at our level and that we may very likely have to deal with a sudden shortage of currency.

Silver Monkey
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:08pm

Monkey Turd Throwings

Silver 35.17

Gold 1857.17

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:25pm

Hat contest....

Gold 1628.30

Silver 38.09

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:28pm

Supreme court covered in dollar signs.

Apparently it's against the law to protest in front of the Supreme Court, who knew? Anyway, some plucky protesters with a big honkin' projector were able to decorate the building with dollar signs recently - I was amused.

Supreme Court Building Covered in Giant Dollar Signs
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:29pm

The pick ( axe) tastes like.....

.....gold $1835.41 ......silver $42.36 Thanks for putting me back on track Turd.

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:32pm
Be Prepared
Feb 1, 2012 - 2:33pm

Gross: Low Rates Signaling Birth of Austerity

Gross: Low Rates Signaling Birth of Austerity

Bill Gross said the zero-bound interest rate policies embraced by central banks including the Federal Reserve may end up killing as opposed to creating credit and developed economies may suffer accordingly.

While recent actions by policy makers provide assurances that short and intermediate U.S. bond yields may not change for years, any potential for price appreciation is limited, Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, wrote today in a monthly investment outlook released on Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.’s website. “Monetary and fiscal excesses carry with them explicit costs,” Gross wrote. “My intent really is to alert you, the reader, to the significant costs that may be ahead for a global economy and financial marketplace still functioning under the assumption that cheap and abundant central bank credit is always a positive dynamic.”

The Fed purchased $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing known as QE1 and QE2 as part of its efforts to support the world’s biggest economy. Policy makers last month said they plan to keep their benchmark interest rate near zero until at least the end of 2014. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said following the central bank’s Jan. 25 meeting that he’s considering another program of debt purchases if it appears the recovery isn’t progressing.

<Rest of the Article>

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:33pm

Sinclair non-news

As I said in a previous thread, Sinclair's "revelations" were old news. Now, Dave in Denver, over at Truth in Gold, says the same thing, only more succinctly.


"This is not new information, as it was reported as far back as October that ISDA would make this declaration once the a Greek restructuring occurred."

"Sinclair made ISDA sound like some dark, mysterious force out there that was largely hidden but imbued with supernatural powers. ISDA has been around forever. "

And, "The problem with ISDA is that it is governed by the same banks that stand to benefit the most from ISDA rule declarations"

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:35pm

Good riddance

Thanks to January 30 being a payday, I was able to terminate relationships with two forces of evil today - JPMC (paid off car loan early) and Sovereign (Santander) - checking. Interesting, saw in the European press yesterday how Santander reported that they have increased their core reserves to exceed the new mandates. As a customer, I found out how they did that - they increased the minimum balance for "free" checking, along with the penalties. How much do you want to bet that the move enabled them to move a greater portion of checking deposits from the demand deposit category to the time deposit category (which would make it a core reserve).

Feb 1, 2012 - 2:38pm

Feb Prediction

Silver: 37.19

Gold: 1797


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