January Ends. What Will February Bring?

509
Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:41pm

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:

Here is the updated chart:

What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.

Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.

Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Soldier Returns

Have a great overnight. TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Gene Autry

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...


Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.

Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/02/perniciousness-of-zirp.html

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  509 Comments

Art Lomax
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:27am

Feb 29

Gold 1796.29

Silver 33.90

Sheeple-49
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:27am

Feb close

Silver 35.90

Gold 1810.41

Stack em' high!

Beentheredonethat
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:29am

This is my guess

$1916.00 & $39.43

DaddyO
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:30am

I'll jump in here...

Gold=$1741.45

Silver=$33.09

Michael
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:30am

Someday, perhaps a silver Keiser...

Count me in at $38.75 for silver, 1815.50 for gold.

Unless there's a flight of black swans; in that case, all bets are off. :)

---

"...paper is paper, money is money..." - Thomas Paine

odyssey
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:31am

End of Feb closing price

Gold = 1698

Silver = 31.8

A wild guess, but just don't believe the time is ripe for PMs start to launch to the moon.

LONER
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:35am

MY GUESS FOR END FEB

Greetings from the great white north. Nothing like a chance to win a hat to get me off my duff to make a post.

GOLD: 1775.11

SILVER: 34.75

EX COELIS

Biochar
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:40am

not sure about February...

but I know what July is bringing...

don't let her steal your stack

KC
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:40am

I'm in at 1666 & 31.88

I'm in at 1666 & 31.88

Baxter Bentley
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:40am

Some stats on our guesses so far...

Gold
Low High Mean Median Std. Dev 2 Std (-) 2 Std (+)
$1,550.00 $2,341.60 $1,806.09 $1,805.00 $107.73 $1,590.63 $2,021.55
Silver
Low High Mean Median Std. Dev 2 Std (-) 2 Std (+)
$25.00 $55.02 $36.69 $36.36 $4.59 $27.51 $45.87

So, at this point, we can say with roughly 95% confidence that gold will finish between $1590.63-2021.55, and silver will finish between $27.51-$45.87, assuming even a marginal degree of accuracy in our predictive abilities. I'd even be willing to bet that the "winner" would be the means of our collective guesses.

509 Comments on January Ends. What Will February Bring?

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