January Ends. What Will February Bring?

509
Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:41pm

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:

Here is the updated chart:

What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.

Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.

Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Soldier Returns

Have a great overnight. TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Gene Autry

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...


Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.

Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/02/perniciousness-of-zirp.html

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  509 Comments

Boswell
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:50pm

Ooops! Double Post

Here's some "filler" ;-)

I updated that McKinley Poster someone put up a few days ago...

slavador
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:51pm

$2341.60 and $55.02

Go big or go home

$2341.60

$55.02

NZ SilverSurfer
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:54pm

$1846.35 $37.48

$1846.35 Au

$37.48Ag

Thanks for the great work you put out

Cheers!

Mudsharkbytes
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:55pm

Okay, Lunger, let's do it - here's my guess -

Au: $1975

Ag: $48.50

With so many low-ball, ho-hum guesses, I figured there's more room on the upside.

tyberious
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:56pm

FEB Ag Au

Comex price close on Feb 29.

Gold 2089.20

Silver 39.97

Threefoottwo
Jan 31, 2012 - 11:59pm

metal prices

The banks agree that the EU defaulted on loans, brings down Europe banks and US banks, killing the dollar instantly. The banks drag out a new currency; and Gold will be 3000 units of new currency while silver will be 300 units. We know what ever will happen will not be good for us peons! At least my pm stash is safe in the hands of the nice federal agents who picked it up to keep it for me.

murphy
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:05am

not an educated guess

au=1789.20 ag=34.74

Xeno
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:05am

2-29-12

Thanks for another contest TF.

I expect the last kiss in gold to test the breakout which will give the EE another chance at silver.

Thanks H, put me down for 1782.10 Gold and 34.77 Silver.

After Feb. it'll be from the launch pad, off the satellite, through the radiation belt, and into the crater on the far side of the moon. Score.

wtfdik
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:05am

my WAG

Gold $1914.09

Silver $38.90

Thanks!

Green Lantern
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:08am

Gold-$1822Silver-$41.50Some

Gold-$1822

Silver-$41.50

Some other of my Celebrity psychic predictions for 2012

Ann Barnette ties the knot with Bob Chapman at a Las Vegas chapel

Martin Armstrong and Jon Corizine, Goldmann Sachs alumni, seen together holding hands on vacation on the Almafi Coast.

Jim Carey casted as Nigel Farage in "Fighting Bull" based on the best selling book by Nigel Farage

The true identity of Eric King of King World News is made public

Kim Kardashian releases gold bullion coin and it becomes the best selling coin on APMEX in the month of February

Turd Ferguson releases a new clothing line with modified hat

509 Comments on January Ends. What Will February Bring?

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