January Ends. What Will February Bring?

Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:41pm

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:

Here is the updated chart:

What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.

Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.

Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Soldier Returns

Have a great overnight. TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Gene Autry

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...

Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.

Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 1, 2012 - 11:09am

1783 35,15



Feb 1, 2012 - 11:10am


Gold, $1867.45

Silver, $39.80

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:10am


Gold $1733.33

Silver $33.13

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:14am


Gold = $1877.00

Silver = $38.51

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:16am

february prices

gold = $1777

silver= $35.67

Avocado Lover
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:17am

Fen 29 price

AU $1999 Ag $44.99

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:17am


Gold $1792

Silver $35.80

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:17am

I had Packers beating the Ravens, but here goes...

...Silver $34.31, Gold $1798.21.

Just makin' stuff up, but what the hey.

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:19am

PM prices, end Feb.

I've posted 2 sets of predictions already, but they haven't appeared, so here goes, 3rd time lucky?

Au $1763.9

Ag $34.3

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:19am

The crystal ball reads.....

gold= 1787.30

Silver = 36.48

Another good month for the stackers....

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:24am


Video unavailable
Deaglán mrfreebie
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:29am

Ah sure why not

Gold - $1842

Silver - $36.84

And tonight´s lottery numbers will be 2, 23, 34, 12, 14, 30

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:32am
ClinkinKY El Gordo
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:34am

@ El Gordo

How many guesses do we

Submitted by El Gordo on February 1, 2012 - 10:40am.

How many guesses do we get?

Gold - 1800

Silver - 40

You can "pull the lever" as many times as you wish. Unfortunately, unlike Chicago elections, only your first pull counts

Gold Dog
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:41am

Crystal Balls

Gold- 1802.56

Silver- 38.44

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:42am

Great Gonzalo article!

Thanks Turd!

PM Stackin' Fool
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:43am

Gold: $1822 Silver: $35.47

Gold: $1822

Silver: $35.47

Dark Matter
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:45am

Stock market

Well, PMs are rolling, but the stock market is rock and rolling. Who would have thought that?

Personally, I don't get it.

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:48am


$1850 Gold and $38 Silver.

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:49am

Recycled Guesses

Gold 1987

Silver 49.87

Didn't work out so well for end of January but will try again. Think the EE will still be defending their line in the sand.


Feb 1, 2012 - 11:50am

My guess

Even if I were to miraculously win, I would not accept the hat because I haven’t fed the turd. But for fun, I’ll make my non-educated guess based on the fact that I will not break even until silver is $37.88 and gold at $1811.

Thus, my crystal ball tells me: $37.85/silver and $1,810.95/gold. Then, the slide begins.

Remember: The glass isn’t half empty or half full. The glass is the wrong size.

Yooper Rick
Feb 1, 2012 - 11:53am

Contest Prediction

Thanks so much TF for all you do and have done.

AU... $1839.39

AG... $39.59

I am a stacker only but have received such a great education here since finding this site. I have been a daily reader and rare poster since Nov. , 2010. Folks here display a degree of civility not found elsewhere on the internet.

Feb 1, 2012 - 11:53am

AAARGH this 1750 brake is

AAARGH this 1750 brake is getting rediculous now LOLLLLL


Feb 1, 2012 - 11:59am

January ISM – 54.1

The ISM report for January came out at 54.1 today. That makes for 30 straight months that it’s been above 50 which signifies an expanding economy.

Are we in a recession? Put it this way: The ISM has fallen between 53.0 and 55.0 a total of 101 times. Just two of those times have come during recessions.

Posted by Eddy on February 1st, 2012 at 10:07 am


Feb 1, 2012 - 12:02pm

January Effect high in place in EURUSD

I have posted extensively about the January Effect in the forex markets in recent weeks. See recent posts

The January 30 post was written by guest editor, Steve Briese, probably the preeminent expert on COT data. There has been much discussion lately on the profile of the open interest in futures, whereby commercials have an all-time record long position and large specs have an all-time record short position. This profile has been interpreted by some traders as a bullish factor in the forex cross. Steve explains that the COT data do not alter the dominant bear trend in the EuroFX ($G6E_F).

It now appears possible that the January 27 high in $EURUSD at 1.3234 will be the high for the next four to six months, and possibly longer.

IF the January high is in place, and IF the historic price change occurs, $EURUSD should decline 17% from the Jan 27 high, resulting in a target of $1.0984.

The Jan 27 high at 1.3234 must hold for the entire analysis above to remain valid.

Another way to play a bear move in the EuroFx is through $EURGBP. I actually quite like the Pound technically and think the EuroFX will lose to the Pound. Quite a strong trend has developed in support of this trade on the daily chart, as seen below.

A small flag dating back to Jan 9 can be seen on daily graph. The chart below is the expression of this flag on the hourly chart.

Feb 1, 2012 - 12:04pm


Gold- 1820.30

Silver- 36.42

Happy National Signing Day to all!

Feb 1, 2012 - 12:06pm


We're one news blurb away from breaking through that 1750 barrier.

Today or within the next two days we Break on Through to the other side.....

Video unavailable
Feb 1, 2012 - 12:06pm

Feb Predictions

Gold = $1,704.20

Silver = $31.60

Feb 1, 2012 - 12:12pm

I F'n hate thieves

After reading the story about the household that had all of their gold which had been handed down over generations stolen from them, I got to thinking about how burglars are only one step above rapists, and then only barely.

They both violate you, and, they both permanently destroy your sense of security and well being. And even though one could say burglary isn't violent and rape is, I think it's a pretty safe bet that if you happen to be in the vicinity when your home is burgled, unless you're able to defend yourself, the burglar will be more than happy to commit a few violent acts in your general direction.

The problem is, too many drug users in jail, and not enough thieves.

Feb 1, 2012 - 12:12pm

a bit more on CDS

CNBC europe just had a guest on more or less saying/ debating that a greek resolution this week was a tails you lose heads you lose situation. he's cottoned on to a 70% haircut bankrupting many a EU bank if the CDS does not get triggered. he has no faith in a US bank taking a loss or Sarkozy letting french banks fail during an election year. enter more LTRO or QE. or some other alphabet soup.

it seemed pretty clear to me watching Benanke that he would print if anything doesnt go his way. i dont think he was even hinting it was clear as day.


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