January Ends. What Will February Bring?

Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:41pm

Wow! What a fun month! And whodathunkit? Back on 12/31, everyone was depressed and nervous. Here we are, just a scant 31 days later and the PMs are rolling again. Where will we be on Feb 29? Hmmm. I smell another "Hat Contest"!

OK, so here you go. February 29 is a Wednesday. Perfect. Let's give away two hats. One for the closest prediction for the Comex closing price of gold that day and another for the closing price of Comex silver that day. If any lucky Turdite can accurately predict both, not only will that person receive two hats, I'll throw in one of my old "Silver Keisers" for good measure. Three things:

  1. We need someone to keep a spreadsheet of all the entries. "H", you out there?
  2. The entry deadline is 6:00 p.m. EST tomorrow.
  3. Use the comments section of this thread to record your entry.

What a crazy day we had today. Just when gold and silver looked like they were going to break out of their current ranges, The Pig caught a bid and everything reversed. Unfortunately, yours truly did once again prove prescient as I warned everyone last night that a Pig bounce was possible today:

"We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel."

And here was the chart from last night:


Here is the updated chart:


What concerns me in the short term is that that bottom looks pretty solid. I suspect that the POSX will continue to bounce and rally some overnight and into tomorrow. It could easily rally to 80 or even 80.20. This would have a negative impact on PM prices for those currently long. On the bright side, those of us looking for a dip in price to get long would probably welcome a little Pig rally.

So, if Pigatha does continue to perk up a bit, where might be the opportune point to buy in an attempt to pick up a little extra fiat? Fortunately, the charts are pretty clear, at the moment. Let's start with gold. Note the channel that is present on the daily chart. Gold has been in this channel for the entire month of January and it appears that it will stay there quite a bit longer. This is good. However, on the negative side, I still expect stout resistance in the area between 1750 and 1760. (We certainly got our first taste of it today!) Gold could conceivably stay within this channel yet move sideways for the next two weeks as it tries to overcome this area. Those looking for an entry point will plainly see one on the 2-hour chart. A little more Pig rally and we'll likely see gold dip toward 1723-1730. That sure looks like a good spot to me.


Silver looks similar and, if I had to pick one to buy on a dip, silver would be the one. You can see the same, month-long channel on the silver chart but the main resistance I see is still almost $2 above the current price. If a dip develops to 32.50 or so, the main resistance moves to $3 above. That might make silver tradable. We'll see. A dip to 32.50 is going to have to develop first and that is most certainly not a sure thing at this point. The area around 32.80-33.00 has been, and will continue to be, very solid support. Let's see what happens overnight and take another look in the morning.


Just a few more items before I call it a day:

Soldier Returns

Have a great overnight. TF

9:50 am EST UPDATE:

Gene Autry

Yes, we're back in the channel again. After threatening to bottom and break out of the channel, The Pig has reverted back to itself and has fallen back into the down channel it's been in for over two weeks. (I continue to bat .500 when attempting to predict what it will do which, again, is why I don't trade Forex.) The main thing, though, is that Pigatha has rolled over again. What does this tell us? Will the BLBS report on Friday really send it tumbling? We'll see...

Once the POSX turned last night, the metals rallied. Unfortunately, another day of Cartel and EE capping has kept price below 1750 and 34. I expect this to continue. With market participation so low and OI and volume so abysmal, it will likely take another "event" to shove things higher. Two weeks ago it was supposedly Mr. Sprott that caused the shorts to panic. Last week, it was The Bernank. By Friday, will it be the BLSBS that does the trick? Perhaps. Watch the POSX for clues.



Lastly, our buddy Gonzalo has written an interesting new piece. Click the link below and read it.



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 31, 2012 - 9:46pm


Thanks for the bangup job the last 24 hours! So much outstanding info and links.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:49pm

$1,874 & $38

My dart throwing monkey has the night off so I'll guess these two numbers on my own. LOL!

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:56pm

February Prediction

Gold: $1902.50

Silver: $41.45 

Might as well shoot for the moon...

Be Prepared
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:04pm

Once more into the Breach

my friends..... we are charging into our Wednesday!

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:04pm

Thanks dude

Appreciate the new thread. EXK has some buying interest for sure.


Ag $34.80

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:06pm

To the penny?

$1777 and $35.65

Thanks for all your analysis and breakdown of Santa's wisdom!

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:07pm

1849.32/gold and 36.58/silver

Thanks, Turd, for the analysis and the new contest! I need a new hat and Keiser wouldn't hurt my feelings at all.

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:07pm

ima hopen

Gold a t $ 1841 and silver at $40.54

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:09pm

Place your bets everyone!

Another wonderful chance. Okay, I spun the wheel and here's what came up:

Gold: $1,922

Silver: $42

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:10pm

Count me in

Gold 1711.11, silver 32.11. Stasis, bitchez.

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:10pm


$38.33 & $1714.01

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:11pm

@Fred and Better re Thorium (carryover from closed thread)

Oops, looks like I killed the last thread! This is a repost (sorry)...

Hi Fred, Better was right, in that the original 40's decision to pursue Uranium reactors wascompletely driven by the desire to create SNMs for weapons. I'm no sort of expert about PBRs, since I worked only with PWRs, but my limited understanding is that they are completely feasible, don't produce fissiles, are far safer from a stability and control standpoint (meltdown is not possible, no extraordinary pressures or temperatures), and probably much cheaper to build and run. I understand the reaction byproducts are far tamer than the interesting long-lived isotopes generated by a conventional nuke, but I'm not fully educated on exactly how that is.

We also have no such reactor. Years away from any sort of commercial viability, although word is China is quite active in testing research and design. My view is that a possible Thorium play is probably still years and years off. I'm also thinking that it just ain't going to happen in the 'western world', where a nuke is a nuke is a nuke, to politicians and the voters that vote for them. This particular innovation is probably going to see its fruition somewhere where the authorities don't give a flying poo what the "NIMBYs" think. How I'll feel, when America needs to import its advanced technology from China!


Charles S. Hamlin
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:12pm

Leap Day prediction

Thanks for contest Turd...

Gold $1823

Silver $35.80

...however, I hope you are right @needadell smiley

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:14pm

$2100 for Gold $55 for silver

I think we could see Europe implode before the end of next month, plus there's Santa's warning from last night, so I'm gonna shoot for new highs in both.

$2100 for Gold $55 for silver

Money Man
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:14pm

Gold....1862.50 Silver.....36




Be Prepared
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:15pm

I'll do the spreadsheet....

so put your guesses out there and I will tally them up..... :-)

Money Man
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:16pm

Hi Hoe...silver




Jan 31, 2012 - 10:16pm
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:16pm

Feb 29

I'm going to go out of the money put here, in case the eurofubar creates a 'sell everything that ain't nailed down' situation.

Au 1550

Ag 25

(don't hit me!!)


Jan 31, 2012 - 10:18pm

Up and down to...

Gold 1739 Slv. 33.72 I wanna be wrong!

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:18pm

Metals Prediction:

Gold 1800 

Silver 35.50

Grey Mare
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:18pm

My entry: Au  1818.00 Ag     

My entry:

Au 1818.00

Ag 36.36

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:19pm

1739.80 for Au and 34.45 for Ag

I think we're going to be sideways for the entire month of Feb.

heart Turdtown

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:19pm

gold 1857 silver 39.57 I

gold 1857

silver 39.57

I won't cry if it's actually higher.

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:20pm

1877 and 37

Round numbers for me please....

1877 and 37

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:21pm

Thanks for the contest Turd!

1666.66 Au and 31.33 Ag

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:22pm

Gold and silver guessing game

My guesses: Gold 1,812.19

Silver 36.02

Hope I'm wrong and loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:23pm


That made at least three of us Turdites in Daytona this weekend. Don't tell the rest that it was, and still is, in the upper 70's, or they will all come down!

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:23pm

Pretty special video Turd.

Pretty special video Turd.

Baxter Bentley
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:25pm

Gold, $1915 Silver, $44.20

Gold, $1915

Silver, $44.20

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