Santa Out In Front

Tue, Jan 31, 2012 - 9:01am

There has been a great discussion in the previous thread regarding the dire warning and interview that Santa gave to Ellis Martin yesterday. With apologies to those actively participating in it, I felt that it must be moved to its own thread.

Lots of folks come here simply to read the main page. As we all know, that's a big mistake. The true value of this site is in the wise and learned comments that are shared with each thread. The discussion regarding Santa is a perfect example. If you missed it, here is what all the hubbub is about.

First, on his site, Santa posted this last evening:

January 30, 2012, at 7:37 pm
by Jim Sinclai
My Dear Friends,
I was interviewed today concerning the most powerful body in the financial world that now holds in its hands the near future of all markets, from currencies to commodities, based on a single edict to be given.
The interview is being processed and should be posted here later this evening.
This organization supersedes all governments and central banks today in terms of the financial power they edict. This organization can have a greater impact on your pocketbook than the FASB did when they killed "true value" accounting.
This body is made up of the key players of the five largest banks in the USA and other countries. This body by their actions this week will guarantee QE to infinity.
This is relevant to all your assets, yes all. If you have the time listen to it please. If you don’t have the time listen to it please. If you don’t listen to it do not blame me when all hell breaks loose six months from now.
Not one word about this body was on the airwaves today, yet this group by a simple decision rules the financial plant. They will be making this edict in just a few days. They have to do it again this year. It is then that you know what will hit the fan.
I feel this is it for tonight. I do not want to write another word and detract from the revelations you will hear.
Your financial future, even if you have never heard of them, is in this organization’s hands. Check in later for the interview. If you don’t check in your finances might just check out.
Please remember you have been informed of this impending edict as a service to the community.

As you might imagine, this got everybody's attention. We all sat around for an hour or two, waiting for the interview and then it was finally posted to the Ellis Martin YouTube channel. I will second Santa's sentiment...please take the time to listen to this today:

Breaking News Ellis Martin Report with Jim Sinclair

As we were debating what this all meant, I offered what I still think is a reasonably good explanation:

If I understand this right, here is what Santa is saying:

  • In 2008, AIG had sold CDS on CDOs. CDOs defaulted and AIG had to pay. AIG went broke. The counterparties to the CDS were GS, JPM et al and had to be made whole on their losses that they thought were insured by AIG.
  • US Govt funnels TARP cash thru AIG to GS, JPM et al to cover losses
  • IN 2012, Greece is about to default, just like the CDOs of 2008.
  • ISDA (run by Big 5 banks) declares that 70% haircut on Greek bonds is not a default.
  • Therefore, Big 5 do not have to pay off on CDOs bought by Greek bondholders. Big 5 off the hook.
  • Greek bondholders who thought they had principal insurance are now screwed and left holding the bag.
  • Greek bondholders (big Euro banks, big Euro govts, big hedge funds) will now be insolvent.
  • Greek bondholders will need massive capital injection.
  • Short term euro negative/dollar positive.
  • Regardless, lots and lots of money printing to save Greek bondholders.

Also, a significant part of Santa's warning is the timing. He seems to be saying that a decision regarding whether or not this is a "default" will be announced this week. Clearly, a market coming to terms with a massive, new money printing scheme to cover the bondholders will be a market that assigns the precious metals a much higher value in the weeks ahead. We will have to watch this very closely.

OK, have at it. Listen to the interview and discuss the implications in the comments. Learn from each other. Help each other. Prepare accordingly. TF

p.s. I believe that gold is popping this morning based upon this news:

Apparently, some are surprised that El Commandante was able to pull this off. At any rate, 160 tonnes in Venezuela means that as much as 16,000 tonnes has been removed from the LBMA/Comex paper regime. Ponder that one for a while.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 31, 2012 - 9:02am



Jan 31, 2012 - 9:04am

question from my inbox

Can someone help this guy?

"Hi Turd, I have a quick question about buying gold and silver in Canada. I'm completely new to this and I was wondering what you would recommend as the best method here in Canada? I was thinking coins, but from where is the best place to purchase? Thanks for your time Turd, love your website!"

Dr G
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:04am

New thread is a great idea.

New thread is a great idea. Santa frontrunning the news again. Especially grateful to Turd and everybody else for their analysis of the situation. 

Also note that the POSX failed to rally yesterday and is falling again this morning.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:06am

News you can use

Good to hear that Chavez made his withdrawal without assassination or boating accidents. Any clue about how much bullion is left in the European vaults?

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:07am

I believe there may be a

I believe there may be a couple of 10 oz bars and a handful of coins.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:15am


Turd and Turdites...

Did anyone go to bed last night? I have such an information hangover...


Regarding Canadian bullion dealers...



paulindoon TF
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:18am

PM purchases in Canada

Funny for just yesterday I sent out an email to some select friends of mine with this info. So:

In my book there are three easy avenues one can implement to protect (some) of yr family's wealth going forward: 1) Buy and physically hold Silver and for God's sake, DO NOT STORE IT IN A BANK VAULT, SAFETY DEPOSIT BOX, OR SOME BULLION VAULT. Take possession of it, plain & simple. Some Canadian sources for internet buying possibilities that I have used & can recommend. Set up internet acct then lovk price when PMs order is placed via internet. Payment via credit card (First Majestic & Great Panther) or Wire Transfer etc: Silver price comparator: 2) Owning shares of upcomer AGQ with a NI upgrade to Ag resources (now that phase 4 drilling on San Jose vein is completed)expected to be released Feb/March. 3) Most conservative method is to own shares of Eric Sprott Silver Trust PSLV trading on TSX. From article in (1): I believe PSLV is a screaming buy at these premium levels. In addition to silver going up, I believe the premium will slowly climb back up to median levels, and the tax advantage cannot be ignored. For more on the PSLV premium check out my article, "Why Premium Concerns for PSLV are Overblown".] I forgot to mention that IF you are thinking of buying some physical Ag, when doing the price comparisson, please make sure to look at the delivery cost. Some suppliers include it while others do not (which of course increases yr purchase cost). In my experience, if you want to buy .999 Pure Ag as bullion, then First majextic is best - delivery cxharge of under 40. If buying coins, SilverGoldbulls out of Alberta is best although Sprott is almost as good. I have NOT made any purchases from USA suppliers. Oh if you want to try a stock there's AGQ (on Vancouver), a pure silver play with an operating mine in Mexico. I do believe the shareprice is about to take off. My Target well over $1.00 and dare I say several $'s in maybe a year?? But what do I know. Analytical
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:19am


Netherlands has 10% of their gold in a dutch vault, the rest is in the UK and US

almost a breakout now, silver is looking good man, dan norcini says if 35 breaks we may shoot to 40

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:19am

Santa's gift for the dramatic

Having listened to the audio last night, I think Turd's summation nails the gist of Santa's message.

Some here and elsewhere discount Santa for his penchant for being extremely dramatic. And he can seem that way at first. But his dramatic, and often dire pronouncements, have a way of coming into common acceptance over time. This strikes me as another one of those instances where what now seems a little over the top will prove to be mainstream in the not-too-distant future.

Santa was talking about derivatives and their dangers well before most, if not all.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:19am

Thurd again? Thanks TF

Thurd again? Thanks TF

edit: Uh- How do you spell seven in Spanish? Siete?

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:20am

Helping Cdn shopper

I recommend Silver and Gold Maple Leaf coins. The 1oz Silver come in tubes of 25 and the gold 1oz come in tubes of 10 but you can buy a single coin at a time from most coin dealers. Do not buy commemorative sets unless you are really fond of the art. 

I further recommend that you check every local coin shop for best price and develop a relationship. It may not necessarily be the cheapest way to do it but it is convenient and it's good to have the buy/sell relationship.

For silver bullion, consider going to First Majestic's website and buying direct from them. Reliable service at a reasonable price from the source however, these have no face value (like MapleLeafs) and would not be as readily accepted in the event of a world economic meltdown.

Only my opinion and an outline of how I've done it over the years. I own First Majestic stock and have no affiliation with the RCM.

Dr G
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:23am

Yes, Trader Dan says if 35

Yes, Trader Dan says if 35 falls it will be rapid to 40. Turk (who has been wrong on his timeline lots lately?) says if 37 falls we will shoot to 68-70 within months.

Perhaps both of these fine gents are correct.

Dark Matter
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:26am

What does this really mean?

I quote: Regardless, lots and lots of money printing to save Greek bondholders.

Does this mean that the DOW JONES, the FTSE and the DAX will skyrocket in a few months?

Boy, the "crash" is never going to come...

Warren Peace
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:29am

Simple Math From Santa

When one considers the massive notional value of all the CDS policies taken out on Euro debt, one can conclude how much QE will be needed to support the stunning losses that will be taken on the owners of that debt when those policies are determined to have no value.

We haven't even began to deal with the even larger debt loads here in the US....... falling of dominoes seems an appropriate analogy.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:37am

Thanks again

It's been months since we've had a PM market that seems poised to get real exciting (to the upside) at any moment. Get ready for your jaw to drop.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:39am

Im surprised at some Turds

wondering still who eats the poo-poo sandwich?


Its 'us' - the masses. Who else would it be - the CEO's, bankers...the elite? Isnt that the idea - for us to eat it?Its not for the big guys, but the commoner's - prepared by them... Mmmm...





Jan 31, 2012 - 9:45am

Prepare Accordingly...

I listened to the whole interview and am further strengthened to continue my trek towards being able to live without much outside support. I would encourage all of my fellow Turdites to do the same. No matter how much validity Santa's words may have the outcome appears to be a complete unwinding of the Great Keynesian Experiment.

This interview just gives words to what we all have been feeling for quite sometime. Ann Barnhardt began the last leg of the unwind by writing her get out of the market piece back in November when MFingG collapsed.

My resolve has not changed, my intentions are still the same, my plan is sound and my outcome is more predictable.

Can you say, Precious Metals, Bitchez?

Can you say, Canned Ham, Bitchez?

Can you say, Winter White Wheat, Bitchez?

Can you say, Bullets, Bandaids and Bacon, Bitchez?

I just wish I had insured with Torgerson's before the jon boat accident! My bad...somehow I will muddle through!!


Jan 31, 2012 - 9:47am

Re: Santa's interview

If and when the ISDA announce it is not a default (Greece) then all hell should break loose in the US$. This is not US$ friendly, it is loss of trust of the system. MF Global times 10!

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:49am
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:50am


He's being a bit hyperbolical by saying what do you call when they go to 0%. They won't go to 0%. They'll go to 1% then .1% but not 0%. Don't worry, everything is fine. /sarc

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:50am
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:54am


 I fail to understand why the Paper aristocracy announcing QE to infinity will have any impact at all on the metals market. Anybody with a lick of sense knows already - they are printing like madmen. QE is priced in, as such this will be a textbook example of ""buy the rumor, sell the fact." 

This planet is run by Criminals, for the benefit of criminals at the expense of the masses. Greece is but a trial balloon for future, Goodfellas style country size "bustouts". TPTB will extract every shred of value possible from Greece & the retards who purchased their bonds - before sending them on their way - broke & in debt. 

 The coming QE announcement, if there is one, will be designed to enrich TPTB, while easing the worries of the masses. Sure, it will be pitched as the solution to our ills. The end result though, the masses, via inflation will be impoverished. 

Colonel Angus
Jan 31, 2012 - 9:57am

ISDA, etc.

Sure, I got it right last night. Hopefully that will give me some credibility. I am an ivory tower guy in math finance, and I've been watching this for awhile. I have a few thoughts that went with the reasoning that led me to ISDA being the problem. More importantly, I think I know what comes next.

A few have already said it and they are right. The big boys will keep trying to sell CDS, but everyone will say, "Aw, screw it." and not buy any more. When people realize they cannot be saved from either corporate or even sovereign defaults, then they will stop buying up bonds. Why do we believe that places like AAPL have such a huge war chest that they aren't paying in dividends? 

MFGlobal was the warning shot. I've still got some money in an account that I play around with, but it is a small amount. We're about to hear a huge sucking sound coming from paper markets. And then the Bernank is going to print like an MFer because the only way to keep the 1930s from happening again is to prop up the markets. If he doesn't prop them up, then we end up with a lot of layoffs and a U6 somewhere around 30-35%, double where it is now. If he does print, we end up like Mexico in the 80s. 

I have a bias as to which way it goes, but either way it makes sense to be long tangible things with actual survival value. And if you have a little bit of wealth, you might consider the precious with a little bit of cash also. It was my idea until...well, read below.... 

One hint on safety deposit boxes...and yes, I know this will be traced. I do have a safety deposit box. I make sure to keep a couple of rolls of junk Canadian silver dimes and quarters in there. Unfortunately, everything else I've ever bought was lost in a boating accident when I took the precious out for some fresh air on one of those family outings. Well, except the stuff I traded for a bitchin' motorcycle that I wrecked. So, they'll confiscate. I'll be pissed that they get everything I have. C'est la vie.

Jan 31, 2012 - 9:57am

Removed comment

Removed comment.

Eric Original
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:01am

Great Job Everybody

Been a terrific time for this blog, for this whole community, sorting out the news from Santa. Kudos to all.

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:03am


If ISDA says it's not a default (no matter what "it" is), the BBs survive by not having to pay out on CDSs. The smaller players who can't collect on the CDSs, will be kept solvent (or book-balaned) by some FED/ECB new liquidity mechanism. This pumps in new liquidity. Bad for USD. Good for equities, PMs. Bonds? USTs will NEVER be allowed to go up in yield - even more QE. Fly in the annoint - the FED/ECB may simply "guaranty" the CDSs - as long as they never collect on them! This too can keep the "books looking good".

This event puts a rock-hard base under Santa's "QE to infinity" thesis.

Sinclair going senile? For shame! Bad Turdite! You want senile? Go listen to Bob "Cynthia McKinney would make a good VP for RP" Chapman's interviews over the past few months - there is a fine example of entropy taking charge.

Jan 31, 2012 - 10:05am

sovereign debt

should I be shorting the yen right now given this news?

paulindoon Anonymous
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:05am

re Question

Sometimes, a visit to Urban dictionary:

EBR Mod 0
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:07am


ok, I have been buying physical silver for a while and also have physical stored in a depository in allocated space in IRA. I would like some feed back on if I should pull my physical out of the depository. Now I have some idea on tax issues, but my question is how long do I trust it there based on general overall financial issues?

thanks in advance Turdites

Dr G Dark Matter
Jan 31, 2012 - 10:12am

Boy, the "crash" is never

Boy, the "crash" is never going to come...

No, it will come, but it will be worse than we can imagine.

Two points:

1) One of the fundamental differences between Austrian economics and Keynesian economics is how market recessions or breakdowns are handled. Austrians believe that such pullbacks or recessions can strengthen the economy and are part of the normal cycle of economics. There is nothing really abnormal about a recession. They also believe that if you leave a recession alone, an economy with underlying health (even though in a recession!) will heal itself and bring a boom to follow. This can be likened to the large gains and then a period of consolidation in the metals. Consolidation is healthy, although painful to may of us.

Keynesians believe that recessions should be avoided and therefore liquidity injected into the market to reverse any downtrends. This never allows the market to heal itself and only prolongs the illness. Our central banks have "fixed" many recessions as of late, and that means that each coming recession will be deeper and longer than the next. They will reach a point where they cannot "fix" them any longer and we will see the crash of major depression that Turdites are prepping for.

Had they simply allowed the recessions to play out, without bailing out any companies, the ship would have righted over time. So while it may feel that the crash will never come, don't be fooled by that. Each time you have that feeling you need to use it for good and realize that the crash will be deeper than you can imagine. Prep accordingly.

2) In medicine, we have discovered that when patients have a terminal disease and are nearing the end of their time, they actually are happier and more comfortable when we let nature take its course and allow them to live at home, or in hospice care, surrounded by their loved ones and things that make them happy. This is in lieu of pumping them full of drugs that are designed to prolong their lives. Most of the regimens DO prolong their lives, but what the patient really gets is another month or two of cloudy mental status and more and more drugs to counteract the ones initially given.

It's similar to the markets. Austrians know we should simply let things play out rather than tinker with the system and prop it up. The fall will be that much greater.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

Recent Comments

by Thomas More, 14 min 40 sec ago
by J Siefert, 37 min 3 sec ago