Didn't Miss Much

205
Mon, Jan 30, 2012 - 6:58pm

As you probably noticed, I was out all day. I was keeping track of things from afar but it sure doesn't look like I missed much. Don't despair. Tomorrow and Wednesday might generate a little more excitement.

Kind of like last week. I wrote up a blog post last Sunday night expecting all kinds of fireworks in the week ahead. As you know, the fireworks show eventually materialized but it took a little while to show up. Maybe this week will be the same?

You could probably tell from the tone of the previous post that I was expecting a little more downside than we saw today. However, when The Pig failed to get rolling to the upside, the metals reversed and we ended up with an uneventful day. The good thing about days like these is that they leave us with relatively well-defined ranges to watch.

Gold has now spent the better part of three trading days stuck in a $25 range bounded by 1715 on the bottom and 1740 on the top. Interestingly, I don't think that this is the real range. If gold were to break out to the UP side, it would probably be quickly stifled at 1750. If gold were to break down, significant buying should emerge at 1705. So, what we really have is a $45 range, not a $25 range, and $45 (roughly 3%) ranges are tough to break out of. Therefore, I suspect we may stick around here for a while. Additionally, OI continues to contract which leads me to think that, even though gold has rallied $200 off its lows, there still isn't much new money flowing into the pit. In fact, as of the close on Friday, total OI was just 430,159. This is down 3,550 from Thursday and it is at its lowest level since 1/17 when OI was at 425,294. And just a little OIFYI...gold is up almost $100 since then. Hmmm.

Silver has a similar picture. It is 3-day rangebound and its OI continues to contract. Friday night's OI fell to 101,885 from 102,006 and is at its lowest level of the year! All the while, silver is up about 20% on the year. Go figure! There is a mass exodus from silver by the shorts, both spec and EE. This Friday's CoT will be very, very interesting. Until then, let's see if silver can break UP and out of this current range. If it does, it will likely head to 35-35.50 pretty quickly.

Two other items before I go help MrsF with dinner. We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel.

And I've noticed a few requests for a HUI chart so here you go. Rather than go small, I thought I'd give you this 2-year chart, instead. Talk about rangebound! Sheesh! The good thing is, IF it ever breaks out to the UPside, we'll sure know it. Then, you can buy miners with impunity. In the meantime, you'll have to remain picky and, to that end, I'll try to give you a complete, individual miner update later this week.

That's all for now. Hang loose, mongoose! TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  205 Comments

Jan 30, 2012 - 9:18pm

@Katie Rose - I already moved!

Some of you may already know some of my story, sorry if I am repeating myself here. :-)

I moved out of Los Angeles at the end of 2010. The shift in the "energy" there was palpable from 2008-2010. Like a dark cloud had descended on the city. Frankly, I'm surprised there hasn't been more problems there already, but it's a matter of time. Earthquakes, riots, crime, carjackings...awful stuff ahead, I'm sure.

I have not gone back, even to visit. I don't want to be "stuck" there during something bad happening. And I lived there a long time.

I did not move to the country, but to a more medium-sized city, Austin, Texas. A window opened and I took it. I also feel that I'd rather be in the state with the "gun-totin' rednecks" if TSHTF. What place will be safer in a collapse? California, with lots of untrained anti-gun liberals who won't be able to protect themselves, where rampant gangs are already a problem in most cities, or Texas, with a lot of gun owners who are ready to stand up and fight for civilization if need be?

Man, if you told me 10 years ago I'd be living in Texas and grateful for the "rednecks" I would have thought you were nuts! I was so anti-gun and pro-gun control! Of course, Austin is full of hippies but it's also the unofficial headquarters for the Ron Paul grassroots!

So yes, I'm still in a city, but it's smaller and the people are much nicer and more genuinely friendly. The area I live in is "relatively" safe, though there have been car break-ins here recently, it's 1000% safer than where I used to be. I used to live next to drug dealers in LA, and those were in apartments with nice families!

PS And not to get into a religious debate, but one of the first things I did when I got here was join a small church. Churches will look after you. Church people are nice. Even if you are an agnostic-atheist I would suck it up and find a church. You'll need the support if things get bad, and even if things don't, maybe you'll find something useful in it. :-)

cpnscarlet
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:21pm

This is very strange.

Been following Santa for a long time. I have never read anything from him this dramatic. Makes you wonder, and the only thing I'm thinking is Davos. Can't think of anything else, but DTCC was an interesting guess. Maybe he's talking about the Board of the IMF particularly?? Is that 5 people? Can't remember.

pulseTF
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:22pm

Santa

Probably regarding the Invisible Dragon in the Cave of Power, Greed and Death... the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind...

If you have a few hours, you can look at Eric's exhaustive work in video form here;

https://www.marketskeptics.com/2011/06/the-esf-and-its-history.html

Or search jsmineset for same.

Beware: this Dragon is very clever and you shouldn't examine him too long!

tick...tick...tick

Jan 30, 2012 - 9:22pm

@Big L - Soros Robocalls

I have to say that would creep me out to pick up the phone and hear George Soros. Here's what I don't get - so many people bash the Koch Brothers for being rich "manipulators" of the Tea Party, but they seem perfectly OK with a billionaire hedge fund manager basically buying out MoveOn? Why? I don't get it? Be skeptical of both, sure, but why on earth would you be outraged at the Kochs and yet give the investment banker who produces nothing of value (Soros) a pass? Maybe some folks just aren't as skeptical as I am...perhaps when they see a rich guy giving to a liberal cause, they think he really means it. But it's still bizarre they'd have him making the calls.

Vernon Wormer
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:26pm

Katie Rose

We are going as fast as we can! We have a 2 year plan to get out but we are not sure if there is time. The wife and kids are on board but my parents and siblings are happy near the city. I had an interesting discussion with my dad (78) about how hard his father had worked to get off the farm and now I am working my ass off to get back on.

This JM note has me puckered a fair amount, and a 3rd carrier group makes me think we simply do not have much time left.

punchbowl
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:27pm

WOW

That is quite chilling and sounds dangerous. Man he has guts. Totally loaded with cash and pms, he could simply retire and hangout on his ranch with his dogs but chooses to help those who exist on society's strata below his.

DTCC, or the shadow banking system, something along those lines is my guess.

Jasper Puddlemakercpnscarlet
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:33pm

@ cpnscarlet

"Been following Santa for a long time. I have never read anything from him this dramatic."

Me either. This one pegged my "WTF?!" meter. Sent a few "shivers" through me actually. We shall see.

¤
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:41pm

Hi Steph...

Interesting story above on your move and the reasons and differences.

I agree. Get to know your neighbors. The church and their functions might be a good start to find alliances and build some friendships.

On Soros...I kind of want to get called at this point just to hear him Weird times.

Doc1800
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:44pm

When Jim Talks - I Listen

Mr. Sinclair has helped so many of us over the years and has gone above and beyond when it comes to taking time out to help folks he doesn't even know. I pray for that man and thank him- he has even taken time out of his schedule to talk to me and help me get lined up for what has been coming down the way. That was big for me years ago when I didn't know "come here" from "sic 'em". Heck I didn't even know who Jim Sinclair was and yet he takes time to help me personally. Since then I have stacked and got a little farm going. Anyway folks, whatever Jim says, take it to heart and know he is looking out for all of us.

zman
Jan 30, 2012 - 9:44pm

Santa is scaring me,  if he

Santa is scaring me, if he was not so right so often, I would not care, time for a beer.

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