Didn't Miss Much

Mon, Jan 30, 2012 - 6:58pm

As you probably noticed, I was out all day. I was keeping track of things from afar but it sure doesn't look like I missed much. Don't despair. Tomorrow and Wednesday might generate a little more excitement.

Kind of like last week. I wrote up a blog post last Sunday night expecting all kinds of fireworks in the week ahead. As you know, the fireworks show eventually materialized but it took a little while to show up. Maybe this week will be the same?

You could probably tell from the tone of the previous post that I was expecting a little more downside than we saw today. However, when The Pig failed to get rolling to the upside, the metals reversed and we ended up with an uneventful day. The good thing about days like these is that they leave us with relatively well-defined ranges to watch.

Gold has now spent the better part of three trading days stuck in a $25 range bounded by 1715 on the bottom and 1740 on the top. Interestingly, I don't think that this is the real range. If gold were to break out to the UP side, it would probably be quickly stifled at 1750. If gold were to break down, significant buying should emerge at 1705. So, what we really have is a $45 range, not a $25 range, and $45 (roughly 3%) ranges are tough to break out of. Therefore, I suspect we may stick around here for a while. Additionally, OI continues to contract which leads me to think that, even though gold has rallied $200 off its lows, there still isn't much new money flowing into the pit. In fact, as of the close on Friday, total OI was just 430,159. This is down 3,550 from Thursday and it is at its lowest level since 1/17 when OI was at 425,294. And just a little OIFYI...gold is up almost $100 since then. Hmmm.

Silver has a similar picture. It is 3-day rangebound and its OI continues to contract. Friday night's OI fell to 101,885 from 102,006 and is at its lowest level of the year! All the while, silver is up about 20% on the year. Go figure! There is a mass exodus from silver by the shorts, both spec and EE. This Friday's CoT will be very, very interesting. Until then, let's see if silver can break UP and out of this current range. If it does, it will likely head to 35-35.50 pretty quickly.

Two other items before I go help MrsF with dinner. We all should be watching The Pig rather closely. I keep anticipating some headline-induced bounce but it hasn't yet materialized. Pigatha has been in this nasty down channel for two weeks now with no end in sight. We must watch 79 very closely, though. It may try to double-bottom there and then move up with an attempt to break out of the channel.

And I've noticed a few requests for a HUI chart so here you go. Rather than go small, I thought I'd give you this 2-year chart, instead. Talk about rangebound! Sheesh! The good thing is, IF it ever breaks out to the UPside, we'll sure know it. Then, you can buy miners with impunity. In the meantime, you'll have to remain picky and, to that end, I'll try to give you a complete, individual miner update later this week.

That's all for now. Hang loose, mongoose! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 30, 2012 - 7:02pm

Yeah, first

Thanks Turd.

Jan 30, 2012 - 7:07pm

Hi Ho Silver!

I just wanted to say that.

Jan 30, 2012 - 7:15pm


You missed absolutely nothing of note today.

The EU vote seems pretty important and the EU gets to tap another round of that LTRO capital in February. The zombie markets will continue to lurch upwards!

Jan 30, 2012 - 7:18pm

And Away!





..... but not away too fast cuz we need more!

Jan 30, 2012 - 7:18pm

tonto's lament

"Get-um-up Scout!"

Jan 30, 2012 - 7:24pm
Dr G
Jan 30, 2012 - 7:24pm

Today was boring, but

Today was boring, but enthused that we didn't see all the downside action Turd anticipated. Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow with a big up move?

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 30, 2012 - 7:41pm

I Got Beaten to the Punch by

a retired rocket scientist and model railroad enthusiast.

Enjoy it, Captain. Hope the cat is doing well.

As usual, thanks, Turd. Speaking of which, it is time to address the care and feeding of our host.

Feed the Turd.

Katie Rose
Jan 30, 2012 - 7:46pm

I caught my 86 year old Mom reading this...

Here's an article that belongs in the Prepare Accordingly category. I caught my 86 year old Mom reading it as she searched the web. I also posted it in the Buying Rural Land/Moving to the Country thread. I think it is that important.

When my Mom concluded this article, she smiled at me smugly and stated;

"We already did that. We moved away from the big city. Now you and your sister need to get serious about learning to shoot accurately."

Here's the article. It is chilling in many respects...

Is Now The Time To Move Away From Major U.S. Cities?

As the U.S. economy falls apart and as the world becomes increasingly unstable, more Americans than ever are becoming "preppers". It is estimated that there are at least two million preppers in the United States today, but nobody really knows. The truth is that it is hard to take a poll because a lot of preppers simply do not talk about their preparations. Your neighbor could be storing up food in the garage or in an extra bedroom and you might never even know it. An increasing number of Americans are convinced that we are on the verge of some really bad things happening. But will just storing up some extra food and supplies be enough? What is going to happen if we see widespread rioting in major U.S. cities like George Soros is predicting? What is going to happen if the economy totally falls to pieces and our city centers descend into anarchy like we saw in New Orleans during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina? In some major U.S. cities such as Detroit, looting is already rampant. There are some sections of Detroit where entire blocks of houses are being slowly dismantled by thieves and stripped of anything valuable. Sadly, the economy is going to get a lot worse than it is at the moment. So is now the time to move away from major U.S. cities? Should preppers be seeking safer locations for themselves and their families? Those are legitimate questions.


The excellent article continues here, and I think is worth the read.


The Buying Rural Land/Moving to the Country thread is here:



Jan 30, 2012 - 7:46pm

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