Well, Alrighty Then

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:38pm

Finally, some action similar to what I was looking for this week. Thank you, Mr. Ben Bernank!

For this post, I'll dispense with all of the economic doom and gloom and concentrate solely upon the technicals. I know that most of you reading this are only looking for numbers today anyway so, here you go.

First up, The Pig. Today is Primary Example and Reason #1 why I never trade Forex. Just this morning, the POSX looked to be recovering and headed to 81. Not anymore! If you look really closely on the finviz chart, you'll see an ORD. Maybe some would call it a bearish engulfment. Whatever. All I know is that this chart looks terrible in the short term. Though the index may find some support near 79, the area around 78 looks to be a likely destination. 77 isn't out of the picture, either.

Onto gold. These are some very exciting charts! Getting through the brutal resistance area of 1680-1705 is HUGE. I had speculated late last week that it might take some kind of "extraordinary event" to generate the enthusiasm and momentum necessary to overrun The Cartel encampments there. Well, we got it! Now, the big, big key is holding 1705 on a weekly close. This means that gold needs to hang in there for the next 48 hours and withstand any and all Cartel counterattacks. The good news is that there is very minimal "headline risk" overnight so we should continue to see buying in the Asian and European sessions. Let's hope that gold can, in fact, continue higher overnight so that it has a little cushion for The Cartel's inevitable attack, sometime before the close on Friday.

Below is silver which presents, for once, a much less complicated picture. Having cleared the first EE suppression hurdle from 32.80-33, silver is now ready to roll even higher. Though it may see some light chop near 33.75 or so, I expect silver to continue steaming higher until it reaches the area between 35 and 35.50. This is clearly visible on the chart below. If I had to guess, I would say that, over the next week or two, silver will tackle that resistance and beat it. It will then encounter the main downtrend line, currently near 37 and fail. After a fall back to (now) support at 35.50, it then mounts a second charge at the line and breaks it, sometime in mid-February.

Lastly, just a word about the latest OI numbers which were again rather eye-opening. As you surely recall, gold was down almost $14 yesterday. It appears to be a mass long-liquidation. HAHAHAHAHA! Suckers! The OI in the Feb12 fell by 18,000 contracts but only 9,000 rolled into April. The rest of them simply capitulated. Dweebs. They shoulda been reading more Turd! Clearly today's rally is primarily due to those same "traders" rushing right back in. I expect a pretty healthy bounce in OI when the numbers are reported tomorrow. Probably something like 7000 new contracts.

In silver, the OI situation remains stable and this is a very good thing. Yesterday, price fell by 30 cents but OI only declined by 5 contracts. A battle is being waged between resolute longs and the EE, which, as The Wicked Witch told you yesterday, is intent upon only allowing silver to move up slowly. Well, their plan sure failed today. Let's look for another, healthy 2000-3000 OI bump when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

OK, I'll stop there. Again, in the expected absence of raid-inducing, headline risk overnight, let's look (hope) for a continued rally in the PMs. Maybe we can get gold to 1720 and silver to 34 before the criminals in London take over at their usual, appointed hour. Keep your fingers crossed! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 25, 2012 - 4:41pm

Just one question

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts?

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:42pm




Green light folks per Jim Sinclair.

“Today is an important day. There are many days we talk but this is a mile-marker. What the Fed did today. what the Fed did today is they turned on the light of what will be QE to infinity. Today the light went on with regards to the intentions of the Fed. They did that for very specific reasons, we have troubles people can’t see and this is one of the ways out.”

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:42pm

Newmont Mining

Newmont broke above it's 200 day moving average today. Bullish! says Forbes.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:45pm

Just one question

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts? As I accidentally double posted, let me add this - can anyone point to even one factor (amongst many) that suggests a shooting war is NOT coming?

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:47pm

Visit to my LCS

Couldn't resist. nuff said

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:50pm


why are the large intraday drops called manipulation, but the large intraday gains not called the same thing?

could this be a set up somehow?

/noob questions :)

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:54pm

Persuasion class

Here is what I sent out to my college class in Persuasion earlier today:

Propaganda alert!

It is my intent to keep this class focused on advertising and marketing, but presidential elections come only every 4 years, so I must speak up.

Obama and his team of young speechwriters made it very hard to disagree with anything he said last night. How can a political cynic like me disagree when he says “What's at stake aren't Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. And we have to reclaim them.” I agree! Obama opens the first sections of the speech dutifully recounting where we have been. It’s when he talks about the present that I began to be riled up. From the White House view, America is OK! New jobs, deficit cuts, revived auto industry. But he provides no context or evidence.

  • Job creation? But more workers are entering the workforce from our youth than there are new jobs, negating the new jobs.
  • Budget? What a joke! They only agreed to cut the deficit… not the debt… and that meager agreement takes 10 years to realize while we still go further into debt each year the entire time. Remember: Debt is how much you owe; deficit is how fast are you going deeper in debt. America is still running up the credit card, just not as radically as last year.Watch this enlightening video
  • The revived auto industry—a faint pulse is hardly what I call revived! It would have died in in 2009 if Congress had not dumped buckets of $$ into it. Any life at all is a vast improvement. Take a drive by the Delphi property in Dayton OH and see how revived the industry is. You’ll find acres of empty parking lots with weeds growing in them.

Our president talked about what we should do—over and over. I agreed with him! Then he told congress to go do it and he would support them. This is an election year. Are these bought-n-paid-for politicians suddenly going to work together—even for the benefit of the country? I doubt it. But now the president is off the hook because he delegated responsibility to bring change to Congress. Sounds like a plan to me. OK…sarcasm off, sort of.

I have lost all confidence that our political leaders can repair the economy. Hell, I don’t believe they even understand what the problems are. Bottom line from Obama’s view is that America is getting better! I tell you the truth in Christ, and I lie not: the mainstream media (all owned by 6 big corporations, which are owned by the same major stockholders)—that same mainstream media will dutifully promote an American recovery for the next 9 months until the election. They will bend statistics and squelch news stories that indicate that things are not so good.(Gatekeeping theory).

You don’t have to agree with me. I just want you to hear about the other side. You do the research and make your own decisions. But never make a decision after only hearing one side. If you don't get anything else out of this class, get this: never make a decision after only hearing one side.

Thanks for putting up with this cynical old codger's political views.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

Because the suppression

Because the suppression scheme is DOWN not up.

Stick around here long enough and you'll figure it out.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

The mining sector is showing

The mining sector is showing incredible strength today. I thought it was interesting that overnight Silver traded as low as $31.50... clearly someone had knowledge of interest rates thru '14, and was on damage control at 4:20 am eastern. FUBM ;)


https://comparesilverprices.com - throwing money from helicopters like its '99

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

I smell bacon

Big Ben Pig Roast 2012........yet the trough is empty.

Go long Slop, it will feed the pig and the sheep will starve.

Oh what a ride we will have the next 2 months.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:03pm

Blythe's song of the day

Wonder if Blythe would approve of this little ditty to the silver market?


Jan 25, 2012 - 5:05pm

Anyone else sense that this is 8/2 all over again?

Except this time they have even less tools to try to stop the advance? I suppose they could try hiking gold and silver margins to the point where they become cash markets, but then people would start asking why pay cash for a future when I could just buy the physical outright? I suppose the limit would be the stock market 50% margin requirement.

They are running out of time. They better get their WW3 on soon or it'll be too late for them.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:08pm

BTW Turd, it seems to me that

BTW Turd, it seems to me that during peak hours your website is moving very slowly... I don't know what you're paying your tech team, but for $250 a month you could host the site load-balanced on 4 separate linux apache nodes with a fifth separate "brain" for your MySQL database. This can all be done through Amazon Web Services ( see https://amazon.com/ec2 ) This would make your website fly like a rocket, and would be more cost-effective and efficient, and if anything you'd see much more traffic coming in.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:09pm
Jan 25, 2012 - 5:10pm

India to trade Gold with Iran

India to trade Gold with Iran for Oil

Interesting development - India has reportedly agreed to pay Tehran in gold for the oil it buys, in a move aimed at protecting Delhi from US-sanctions targeting countries who trade with Iran. China, another buyer of Iranian oil, may follow Delhi’s lead.


Jan 25, 2012 - 5:14pm

Interesting. I've noticed this, too.

Perhaps Steph can comment on this?

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:15pm

@ aether

I've had that same question come to mind many times. I'm still a noob, I've been following for a little over a year. But it's all manipulated. The gov'ts control the price both up and down in the short run...but when you look at fundamentals like the debt levels and Shadow Stats where depending on which inflation numbers you use the price would be $1500, $2500 or $8000 (these are estimates, I don't recall exactly). So where's the long term picture...up, a lot, or not so much if you believe the gov't numbers (but who here really does?). If it goes down $30 in 10 min at 2am, it's clearly manipulation. If it goes up that much, that's because it should have never really gone down in the first place and news sometimes forces the issue of where the price should be. A nice orderly price discover would be nice, but it just won't happen, the gov't can't let that happen or the price would probably already be in the $3000+ range and people would be selling dollars as fast as they could. At least that's how I justify it in my mind. I could be totally wrong and someone else could probably explain it better though. Lots of smart people here.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:16pm


JamesGRickards Jim Rickards @Pontevetero Yes. But watch the cross rates for timing. Strong USD/EUR or USD/CNY or both is the green light. #Fed wants weak USD Jan 25, 10:41 AM via web
In reply to…
Pontevetero @JamesGRickards so now what. keep buying gold/equities. is this the pre-cursor to nominal gdp targeting Jan 25, 10:33 AM via web
Jan 25, 2012 - 5:20pm

PSLV volume

Pslv volume Volume:3,130,298 Avg Vol (3m):903,761 Seems that there was more than 3 times the avg. volume today.

bernard TF
Jan 25, 2012 - 5:21pm

Also Turd, if you don't feel

Also Turd, if you don't feel like load-balancing on Amazon (which is incredibly easy to do, and cost-effective) you could also look into running APC (Alternate PHP Cache), it's a lightweight system that is a precursor to the caching system that Facebook now uses. Basically, it speeds your site up by storing all the commonly used queries from the database in memory, so the computer doesn't have to consult the database everytime someone loads the home page, the forum pages, etc. This is what I do for a living, and I can tell you that this site could and should be blazing fast, for perhaps less than you're paying now to host at Liquid Web.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:28pm

Should Apple Buy Gold?

Somehow, I don't think the iZombies are smart enough to grasp this concept...


"Companies investing in precious metals such as gold is not completely unthinkable. In 2009, life insurer Northwestern Mutual announced it purchased $400 million in gold. It was the first time in the company’s 152-year history. Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore explained, “Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value. The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large.” Since his comments in June 2009, gold prices have increased from $950 per ounce to nearly $1,700."

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:29pm

Site slowdown...

I noticed it today too, right when silver was soaring. I just assumed a ton of people were hitting the site at once trying to find an explanation for the price spike.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:38pm

Onwards and upwards

Thanks for the new thread.

I'm a bit curious to see how some other CB's react to all of this. I'm guessing that Big Ben just jump started something bigger into gear that will happen quietly among the other CB's.

We're in a currency battle. Expect counter moves by the other participants and possibly a statement and/or reaction by China.

Jan 25, 2012 - 5:48pm

Exciting Action for a Change

Thanks for the update, Turd.

There's been a whole lot of glum lately watching the PM market. At least today was a break from that. While I am not optimistic that much is going to change in the short term, it's nice to see some upward movement.

EDIT: Adding a link to the Cartoon Newscast for today. (In this episode, field reporter, Bridget Black visits the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) storage vault.)

Gold & Silver Up on Fed FOMC Minutes | We Visit the SLV Vault
Big Z
Jan 25, 2012 - 5:52pm

Lurker finally decided to get on board

Long time lurker who as finally decided to register. I've been in this game since the late 90s. money was made, and money was lost. In the end, I'm still ahead.

Jan 25, 2012 - 6:12pm

Welcome BigZ

Welcome to Turdville BigZ! Lurking is good, but coming out to play is even better!

Jan 25, 2012 - 6:14pm

77 POSX?

It looks like the Euro is setup for a nice rally on a COT basis. Commercials net long 181,662 contracts is a record; non-commercials net short 155,195 contracts is record; Nonreportables net short 27,160 contracts is near the record. Smart money super net long, speculators super net short ... Another indication the POSX could get down to Turd's 77 level?

Jan 25, 2012 - 6:20pm


Went to local shop. Asking $36.16/ounce. Paid for 9 ounces. Accidentally gave me 10. Effective price $32.544. Shhhh.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 25, 2012 - 6:32pm


Welcome to the site. Hope you learn and teach us something as well. Envy you your early start from the '90's.

And a BIG, BIG shout out to Fortinbras!! Good to hear from you again. Have no idea what you're doing overseas but I'm sure you're doing it "real good".

Jan 25, 2012 - 6:36pm


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
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4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
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4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
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3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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