Well, Alrighty Then

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:38pm

Finally, some action similar to what I was looking for this week. Thank you, Mr. Ben Bernank!

For this post, I'll dispense with all of the economic doom and gloom and concentrate solely upon the technicals. I know that most of you reading this are only looking for numbers today anyway so, here you go.

First up, The Pig. Today is Primary Example and Reason #1 why I never trade Forex. Just this morning, the POSX looked to be recovering and headed to 81. Not anymore! If you look really closely on the finviz chart, you'll see an ORD. Maybe some would call it a bearish engulfment. Whatever. All I know is that this chart looks terrible in the short term. Though the index may find some support near 79, the area around 78 looks to be a likely destination. 77 isn't out of the picture, either.

Onto gold. These are some very exciting charts! Getting through the brutal resistance area of 1680-1705 is HUGE. I had speculated late last week that it might take some kind of "extraordinary event" to generate the enthusiasm and momentum necessary to overrun The Cartel encampments there. Well, we got it! Now, the big, big key is holding 1705 on a weekly close. This means that gold needs to hang in there for the next 48 hours and withstand any and all Cartel counterattacks. The good news is that there is very minimal "headline risk" overnight so we should continue to see buying in the Asian and European sessions. Let's hope that gold can, in fact, continue higher overnight so that it has a little cushion for The Cartel's inevitable attack, sometime before the close on Friday.

Below is silver which presents, for once, a much less complicated picture. Having cleared the first EE suppression hurdle from 32.80-33, silver is now ready to roll even higher. Though it may see some light chop near 33.75 or so, I expect silver to continue steaming higher until it reaches the area between 35 and 35.50. This is clearly visible on the chart below. If I had to guess, I would say that, over the next week or two, silver will tackle that resistance and beat it. It will then encounter the main downtrend line, currently near 37 and fail. After a fall back to (now) support at 35.50, it then mounts a second charge at the line and breaks it, sometime in mid-February.

Lastly, just a word about the latest OI numbers which were again rather eye-opening. As you surely recall, gold was down almost $14 yesterday. It appears to be a mass long-liquidation. HAHAHAHAHA! Suckers! The OI in the Feb12 fell by 18,000 contracts but only 9,000 rolled into April. The rest of them simply capitulated. Dweebs. They shoulda been reading more Turd! Clearly today's rally is primarily due to those same "traders" rushing right back in. I expect a pretty healthy bounce in OI when the numbers are reported tomorrow. Probably something like 7000 new contracts.

In silver, the OI situation remains stable and this is a very good thing. Yesterday, price fell by 30 cents but OI only declined by 5 contracts. A battle is being waged between resolute longs and the EE, which, as The Wicked Witch told you yesterday, is intent upon only allowing silver to move up slowly. Well, their plan sure failed today. Let's look for another, healthy 2000-3000 OI bump when today's numbers are released tomorrow.

OK, I'll stop there. Again, in the expected absence of raid-inducing, headline risk overnight, let's look (hope) for a continued rally in the PMs. Maybe we can get gold to 1720 and silver to 34 before the criminals in London take over at their usual, appointed hour. Keep your fingers crossed! TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 25, 2012 - 4:41pm

Just one question

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts?

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:42pm




Green light folks per Jim Sinclair.

“Today is an important day. There are many days we talk but this is a mile-marker. What the Fed did today. what the Fed did today is they turned on the light of what will be QE to infinity. Today the light went on with regards to the intentions of the Fed. They did that for very specific reasons, we have troubles people can’t see and this is one of the ways out.”

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:42pm

Newmont Mining

Newmont broke above it's 200 day moving average today. Bullish! says Forbes.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:45pm

Just one question

What's the over/under on when a shooting war starts? As I accidentally double posted, let me add this - can anyone point to even one factor (amongst many) that suggests a shooting war is NOT coming?

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:47pm

Visit to my LCS

Couldn't resist. nuff said

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:50pm


why are the large intraday drops called manipulation, but the large intraday gains not called the same thing?

could this be a set up somehow?

/noob questions :)

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:54pm

Persuasion class

Here is what I sent out to my college class in Persuasion earlier today:

Propaganda alert!

It is my intent to keep this class focused on advertising and marketing, but presidential elections come only every 4 years, so I must speak up.

Obama and his team of young speechwriters made it very hard to disagree with anything he said last night. How can a political cynic like me disagree when he says “What's at stake aren't Democratic values or Republican values, but American values. And we have to reclaim them.” I agree! Obama opens the first sections of the speech dutifully recounting where we have been. It’s when he talks about the present that I began to be riled up. From the White House view, America is OK! New jobs, deficit cuts, revived auto industry. But he provides no context or evidence.

  • Job creation? But more workers are entering the workforce from our youth than there are new jobs, negating the new jobs.
  • Budget? What a joke! They only agreed to cut the deficit… not the debt… and that meager agreement takes 10 years to realize while we still go further into debt each year the entire time. Remember: Debt is how much you owe; deficit is how fast are you going deeper in debt. America is still running up the credit card, just not as radically as last year.Watch this enlightening video
  • The revived auto industry—a faint pulse is hardly what I call revived! It would have died in in 2009 if Congress had not dumped buckets of $$ into it. Any life at all is a vast improvement. Take a drive by the Delphi property in Dayton OH and see how revived the industry is. You’ll find acres of empty parking lots with weeds growing in them.

Our president talked about what we should do—over and over. I agreed with him! Then he told congress to go do it and he would support them. This is an election year. Are these bought-n-paid-for politicians suddenly going to work together—even for the benefit of the country? I doubt it. But now the president is off the hook because he delegated responsibility to bring change to Congress. Sounds like a plan to me. OK…sarcasm off, sort of.

I have lost all confidence that our political leaders can repair the economy. Hell, I don’t believe they even understand what the problems are. Bottom line from Obama’s view is that America is getting better! I tell you the truth in Christ, and I lie not: the mainstream media (all owned by 6 big corporations, which are owned by the same major stockholders)—that same mainstream media will dutifully promote an American recovery for the next 9 months until the election. They will bend statistics and squelch news stories that indicate that things are not so good.(Gatekeeping theory).

You don’t have to agree with me. I just want you to hear about the other side. You do the research and make your own decisions. But never make a decision after only hearing one side. If you don't get anything else out of this class, get this: never make a decision after only hearing one side.

Thanks for putting up with this cynical old codger's political views.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

Because the suppression

Because the suppression scheme is DOWN not up.

Stick around here long enough and you'll figure it out.

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

The mining sector is showing

The mining sector is showing incredible strength today. I thought it was interesting that overnight Silver traded as low as $31.50... clearly someone had knowledge of interest rates thru '14, and was on damage control at 4:20 am eastern. FUBM ;)


https://comparesilverprices.com - throwing money from helicopters like its '99

Jan 25, 2012 - 4:57pm

I smell bacon

Big Ben Pig Roast 2012........yet the trough is empty.

Go long Slop, it will feed the pig and the sheep will starve.

Oh what a ride we will have the next 2 months.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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