Cap Still In Place

Thu, Jan 19, 2012 - 10:11am

The fix was in early today. Even though The Pig fell through support, gold was pressured all last evening in the U.S. It rose for a couple of minutes in Asia/London before it was summarily beaten back.

Take a look at this 5-minute chart:


Again, it's tough to say why The Cartel has chosen to defend 1665 so vigorously. It may just be simple math. As I've tried to demonstrate by citing/predicting the changes in open interest this week, The Forces of Darkness may have put themselves behind the proverbial 8-ball with all of the fresh shorts they've added in the past few days. They have not been able to generate any downside momentum with all their fresh shorts. All they seem to be doing is creating a bullish pattern of "higher lows". See below:


They would appear to be doubling-down today in a desperate attempt to start a waterfall decline into which they can cover. We'll see. The Pig, which wasn't helping them at all overnight, has now reversed and has ticked higher. Maybe The Jackals will catch a break. Watch that trendline above for clues. If it continues to serve as a rising floor for bottoms, the pressure will become too great to contain by tomorrow or Monday and 1665 will finally fall.

Speaking of the POSX, it fell right in cue overnight. It's now in a nifty, little down channel that might take it all of the way down to 80 or so. Obviously, you should be watching this closely, as well, for clues as to whether or not gold will finally be allowed to break through 1665.


Lastly, just a quick word on silver. Two things continue to impede its advance. One, being so far below some key technical indicators, it is having a hard time generating the necessary WOPR excitement to bring in a lot of new money. Two, the extraordinarily high margin rates tend to redirect spec money into other commodities where the trader can get more "bang for his leveraged buck". That said, silver is in a very nice and consistent accumulation pattern here. From a long-term perspective, there is nothing wrong with that at all.


And one more thing, I've noticed some comments about the varying forecasts for gold in 2012. I'll reiterate mine: IT'S GOING HIGHER. The chart below is really all you need to know.


Have a great day. Try not to get too worked up over the bullshit machinations of these grossly manipulated "markets". TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 19, 2012 - 10:12am



Jan 19, 2012 - 10:19am

nickel, the new silver

How to get rich in America wink

Too bad i don't live there.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 19, 2012 - 10:21am

How am I going to explain to Mrs. T.

how I missed out on being First?

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:22am

Good Article on Deflation v. Inflation

This seems to be a much discussed topic on this and other blogs.


Edit: Wow, I'm Thurd, never thought I would even comment on my position in the comments, oh well a first for everything.

ClinkinKY Ferd Torgerson
Jan 19, 2012 - 10:27am

Just tell her you were working on my claim...

...for my recent loss. Speaking of which....?:)

Dr G
Jan 19, 2012 - 10:27am

Turd, thanks. Let us look on

Turd, thanks. Let us look on the bright side: higher lows for gold and silver moving well despite manipulation and lack of interest. Just last week we were debating if they could break through 1650/30. We won that battle, now on to the next battle. This war will play out over time.

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:35am

Thanks for your views Turd....

.....but I still can't believe people are spoiling your website writing first, second, thurd etc on here all the time.

Arghhhhhhh!!!!! GET A GRIP PEOPLE!!

Can you not implement a 2 x "I'm 1st!" comments and you are out, banning procedure??!!! haha




Jan 19, 2012 - 10:37am

put a cap in it

i am gOOd with that. the longer is stays below 31 the more we get. when she blows few are going to catch that sweLL. we are talking some clean up set stuFF. i think the band here at TFMR know what to do if we go below 26 again...if 18 comes lOOk for premiums on phyZZ to be way UP...$30 oz i think is where it stops. mrF...thanks again. gOOd to know yaLL. peace.

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:41am

To every season, churn, churn, churn

It's not only precious metals that seem caught in an emotional churn. Sentiments change radically from day to day on currencies, stock markets, and other commodities.

It seems we are victims of information overload, complicated by rapid spread of said information made possible via the Internet. Where in the past an investment trend could develop and mature in a fashion allowing people to investigate, cogitate, and then get on board, now if you blink you can miss a turn and big rise; or a turn and big drop. This produces a lot of itchy fingers, and rash, emotional decisions.

It also leads to a perceived need for hyper-vigilance and, in short time, emotional burnout. I think I'm suffering a bit of that myself. The need is there for a temporary break, but that need is argued against by the fear of missing a big move, or even THE BIG MOVE.

It ain't easy now, folks. And it won't be getting any easier. We just have to suck it up and keep grinding away, while keeping emotion in check as much as possible.

Ferd Torgerson ClinkinKY
Jan 19, 2012 - 10:47am

@ ClinkinKY

Tried your suggestion. Still not working.

I'll have to get back to you on your claim. Things are a little busy here right now.

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:54am

As the overall picture

As the overall picture becomes more and more clear for those who care to watch... and learn... A truly Epic Battle being fought...

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:56am

Provident seems to have increased spread on ASEs

Provident used to sell 2011 ASEs for spot plus $3.00. Now for the 2012 ASEs they seem to have increased the spread to about $3.50. I called them and they said that their pricing is based on the cost to them. Maybe an indication that the spread on silver is increasing.

Jan 19, 2012 - 10:59am


Turd and fellow Turdidians...


BTW - the 'hit' was just called in...Newt got snuffed out just like Cain - when the time was right...




Jan 19, 2012 - 10:59am

More on etrade...

Thanks to those who responded yesterday about trying to get my securities at my non-margined etrade acct registered in my name. Based on feedback from this forum I asked them:

"Can you confirm if my securities are held in "street name" or "nominee name"?"

To which they replied:

"Yes, I can confirm that the securities that you hold on your account are registered under "street name". This means that the securities are registered in the name of ETrade on the issuer's books and ETrade holds the security for you in "book-entry" form. "Book-entry" simply means ETrade has a record in its books that you own those particular securities and that you are entitle to all the rights that comes with it."

They make is sound like "street name" is a good thing.. but I suspect it isn't. I think that I want the securities to NOT be registered in the name of Etrade.


Jan 19, 2012 - 11:07am

Sales report from the U.S. Mint

They sold another 16,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 50,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 106,000 ounces of gold eagles...9,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 5,172,000 silver eagles.

Nick Elway
Jan 19, 2012 - 11:07am

RE: Nickel, the new Silver

@senseosensei Thanks, nice article

If you are unsure of deflation versus inflation, stacking boxes of nickels protects against both. My local bank usually has 2 to 4 $100 boxes available.

At 22 pounds per $100 box (3.5X4.5X9.5 inches) Hard to steal, good exercise!

US$10000 is a metric ton, so the article's "store on a cement slab" is to be heeded!

(I now have a cabinet that looks like it was designed by Dali)

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:12am

Silver analyst Ted Butler

Silver analyst Ted Butler- his mid-week commentary about the Sprott Silver ETF [PSLV] Offering that closed yesterday

"The important takeaway is that a decent size chunk of physical silver will be taken off the market. It’s an open speculation as to what impact this will have on the price of silver, both short and long term. My guess is that while it certainly can’t be considered negative in any way, there are obvious forces that would prefer to make it look like it has no effect. These forces will do what they can to mute the impact of a fairly large physical purchase. Unfortunately, these commercial crooks may have built up some physical reserves over the past six months or so and may be able to accommodate Sprott’s physical purchase without too much difficulty. A couple or a few more similar-sized purchases would have a big price impact, in my opinion."

"I hope I’m wrong, but my sense is that Sprott is likely to get fairly quick delivery of whatever silver it purchases so as to avoid a repeat of the delivery delays that occurred the last time they purchased a chunk of silver. Eric Sprott has become an outspoken advocate of silver and antagonist against the silver manipulation...and I doubt the suppliers will risk delivery delays to his fund and give him the opportunity to point to tightness. I think that tightness is there, just that the sellers will be able to hide it a bit longer."

John Embry said yesterday that by the time the smoke clears, the fund should be looking to purchase about ten million ounces of silver, which is around 10,000 good delivery bars. He said they would have sold a lot more silver if the shares hadn't been sold at such a high premium [12.5%] to the spot price. Here's the press release from the website 

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:15am

Greece fails to reach agreement with creditors

The Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is representing hedge funds and banks in the tortuous process, confirmed the first day of the resumed talks had failed to reach a conclusion. A spokesman for the group said: "A lengthy meeting was held today with Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and with Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and discussions will continue tomorrow." Greece is under intense pressure to get its private bondholders, which hold billions of euros of Greek debt, to agree to voluntary losses of at least 50pc. International officials from the troika – the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Union (EU) – also want to see bondholders accept artificially low coupons on new Greek bonds. Without an agreement, Greece could forfeit the €130bn bail-out agreed by leaders last year, without which Athens is likely to default on a bond repayment in March. The talks collapsed last Friday but have resumed with urgent demands from all sides that an agreement is reached before the European finance ministers meet on Monday. The link is here.

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:19am

Saudis target 'triple-digit' oil price for the first time

Saudi Arabia said on Monday it wanted to keep crude oil prices at around $100 (U.S.) a barrel, the first time the kingdom has targeted a “triple-digit” price and a quarter above the previous ambition of $75 suggested by King Abdullah in November 2008.

Ali Naimi, the powerful Saudi oil minister, said the world’s largest oil producer aimed to “stabilize” oil prices slightly below the current level of $111 a barrel. “Our wish and hope is we can stabilise this oil price and keep it at a level around $100”, Mr Naimi told CNN television. “If we were able as producers and consumers to average $100 I think the world economy would be in better shape.”

Brent rose 92 cents higher at $111.36 a barrel in afternoon trading in London on Monday. Saudi Arabia is traditionally seen as a moderate country within the Opec oil cartel. But Mr Naimi’s comments put the kingdom in line with hawks such as Algeria and Venezuela, which in the past have said they want to keep prices above $100.

The link for the rest of the story is here.

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:26am

Dave Morgan -The silver myth

Very interesting video explains how little silver there really is for investment

Posted over at the website, and here is the link 

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:29am

Gold Bull market

After bottoming on the final day of 2011, gold is back at it again, up five percent in the new year, compared to a 3.9 percent return for the S&P 500 index. Despite the volatile ending, gold finished up 2011 by 10 percent, while the benchmark for U.S. equities was virtually unchanged.

Read the full story .....the link is here.

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:30am


Looks like Hecla had their Lucky Mine ( Ag) in Idaho closed by Mine inspectors. Won't reopen til 2013. 4 million ounces of domestic silver production just wiped out for 2012

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:32am
Jan 19, 2012 - 11:34am

Long Term Chart is Pretty.

Hands down - the last chart presented by Turd, is my favourite.

Someday the EE senseless smackdowns will be in the rear-view mirror, in the meantime it's pretty sickening (especially given that they are probably making more money doing it than the GDP of most small countries).

Here's a copy of our latest cartoon newscast - RNN Midday News covers Gold smuggling in South Korea, a feature interview with Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve in the Fed's Internet Monitoring facility and touches on the Greek one year bonds.

Fed Monitoring Internet, Gold Smuggling, Greek Default - RNN Midday News
Jan 19, 2012 - 11:36am

Just stick to owning physical

This paper manipulations with price of gold, silver and other commodities jumping up and down like a jojo just makes me a strong believer in holding physical.

For example 2 years ago in my EU country not a single bank offered to sell physical gold bullion and they looked at me funny when I entered in biggest national bank in my country and said if I can buy physical gold.

Last week I got a flyer in mail on my home address from 1 bank to come to them if I want to buy physical gold or have my gold stored in their vaults.

How things can change so fast in such short time.

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:39am

if I was a prop trader:

with leverage I would be salivating at how much that could be made just day trading the metals on the side -of course with a little heads up --gold, silver and even hui

Probably would not even have to go short--just know when to buy and then when to sell. Bank some bucks and go home early

Jan 19, 2012 - 11:39am

Instant premium rise!

Appears that India, (extremely large physical metal market) just saw a significant rise in the premium they will pay for S&G. Import tax imposed. Very little metal mined in India.

BASEBALL 13 pforth
Jan 19, 2012 - 11:49am

@ pforth

From the SEC website:

When you buy securities through a brokerage firm, most firms will automatically put your securities into "street name." This means your brokerage firm will hold your securities in its name and not in your name, but your firm will keep records showing you as the real or "beneficial owner."

A "nominee" is also a substitute, but with limited trading powers. Ideally you want to have "direct registration" or get the certificate. Another option is that if the company you own has a dividend reinvestment program, you can hold their stock directly in the plan (electronic form) with the transfer agent and the registration will always be direct.

Good luck! Remember, like a 100% reserve requirement for a bank, without the street name registration, the broker cannot 'lend' out your shares.


Jan 19, 2012 - 11:51am


I am currently stuck in a boring faculty meeting. 12 professors are spending an hour trying to agree on a definition for "diversity."

But I am tuned out, reading Turd's website, getting educated and learning how to prepare. The value of this website to me is off the charts. I just emailed my wife and asked her to stop by the bank and start buying nickels! Thanks for the link and advice, Sensei and Nick

I love Turd's chart showing the steady accumulation pattern.

Happy stacking. 

Jan 19, 2012 - 12:00pm


Jim Sinclair laid out that very thing not to long ago. I view it as not a good thing that they will not register it in your name, as it puts you further down the list to getting your money back:

Here is a direct link to an email exchange he had with SIPC that lays that out:

Below is a snippet of that conversation -

Hi Jim,

Regarding Jeff Berwick’s article, "Who Really Owns Your Gold Stocks?," it is important for JSMineset readers to understand the limitations of SIPC protection. Page four of the booklet “How SIPC Protects You” says, "Customers of a failed brokerage firm get back all securities (such as stocks and bonds) that already are registered in their name or are in the process of being registered."

I asked SIPC specifically if securities held in "street name" are considered to be registered in the name of the customer and thus eligible for complete protection. SIPC replied:

"In a liquidation proceeding under the Securities Investor Protection Act ("SIPA"), customers of a failed brokerage firm first get back all securities that are already registered in their name or are in the process of being registered, these are called "customer name securities." Customer name securities are negotiable only by the registered owner.

Securities held in "street name" are not considered customer name securities. In a SIPA liquidation proceeding, after the return of customer name securities, the remaining customer assets make up the "fund of customer property." The fund of customer property includes all customer securities held in "street name." The fund of customer property is divided on a pro rata basis with funds shared in proportion to the size of claims. If securities are still missing after the pro rata distribution, the customer would then be entitled to the coverage provided by SIPC, up to the statutory limit."

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