Getting Ready For a Big Week

Tue, Jan 17, 2012 - 11:04am

Sorry for the late update this morning. Lots going on in my personal Turdland and I'm just now getting an opportunity to post some charts. That said, we are off to a great start and this week may become rather consequential as we go along.

When I say "great start", I'm referring to the action before the Comex opened. As you can see on the charts below, once the Comex opened, The Cartel acted swiftly to cap gold at 1665. They got a little help from a rallying POSX, which tripped a few WOPRs and pushed things down a bit. No matter. I like these charts a lot. The cap at 1665 looks to fail soon, maybe overnight tonight. Gold will then move toward 1680 and the real battle will begin.

Silver is being aggressively capped by the EE at the area around 30.50. Why they've chosen to set up shop there is beyond me. A much more significant battle will be fought around $31. Like gold, I expect silver to soon breach the EE lines and head in that direction.

As noted above, I think the stage is being set for a very big and consequential week. I want to see where we finish the day today before making any bold proclamations, however. Check back this afternoon and I'll go into greater detail and provide you with some more charts. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 17, 2012 - 11:07am

Thanks Turd

I appreciate your comments (and it looks like I must bow to the Fjords).

Glad to see the Fjord man here.

Fr. Bill
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:08am

The coveted ...

... Turd position!

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:11am
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:12am

I bet I've been right this whole time...

...and I should have bought my silver all at once four weeks ago instead of scaling in. I'm still too much of a newb to fully trust my own instincts, though.

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:12am


I'm first! I'm happy as can be

I managed to post initially.

For those who think this practice weak

I invite you to kiss my left-most cheek.

(and it is, by far, my best cheek)

edit: And for those who insist on content with your "first" post, I submit to you the following photograph, allegedly taken at the beginning of the "Million Turd March" on the Federal Reserve. 33 Liberty was never classier, I'm told.

The Doc
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:13am

Physical gold clearing at $230 premium to paper

Turd- Jim Willie confirmed what your source told you a few weeks back- Willie told me that his best source states that large physical gold purchases (we're talking near the $100 million range) are clearing at a $200-$230 premium to prevailing paper prices.
you have to pay very little attention to COMEX, it might show $1730, but I could show you lots and lots of sales in the multiple millions of gold in the $1950 range. So there was a $230 premium for physical.

He's not sure whether we'll have a big year in gold or silver or not- states it will depend on how many more theft's we see such as MF Global or Libya. He also believes MF Global won't be an isolated event.
Got Phyzz??

Full interview below including the transcript.

Thanks for all your great work Turd, keep it up!


Desert Fox
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:15am

Lurker Coming Clean

Probably as high up on the totem pole as I'll get so I've got to say Hey to the board and a Big Thanks to The Turd and all the great information available here on a daily basis.

You guys rock!

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:16am
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:18am

no no no

there us nothing wrong with "scaling in."

That is the smart way to do it.

Northern Border
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:24am

The Second MFing Global just happend.

Not sure what is going on or if this has been verified but the Next MFing Global just happened in Canada with Barret Capital management.

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:26am

Jim Willie repost

Another contributor posted this link to another Jim Willie interview.

I'm posting the actual video.

SilverDoctors and Jim Willie Part 1 High Audio
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:27am

A lot of paper expirys happening on Friday

Also to note that this expiry on Friday will mark about 6 months, since the initial Sept PM massacre.
TPTB were successful @ keeping the market suppressed since the drop from 39.. washing out all
the speculative long positions, as of Friday (to make it official). Though time decay has already
done it's job, in tandem w/ the price suppression.

Eric Original
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:28am


Nice! Very classy "First" post. (though I tip them all anyway)

Strongsidejedi RedRover
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:32am

Options expiry

When the paper expiry comes close, the price has been climbing to a peak.

When the paper expiry passes, so does the peak.

When the futures expiry comes close, the price drops to a short term low.

When the futures contract comes due, the PM price is a function of the price Mr. Dimon et al want to pay.

If they need to deliver physical, I've noticed that the PM price remains stagnant or even drops during the first week.

But, sooner or later the price moves up.

Gold and silver are stronger than paper.

And, unlike the game rock, paper, scissors, the scissors can kill the paper, but rock is not weaker than paper. You can use paper to cover up (which is their game), but paper WILL NEVER out last a rock.

larryc Ubergrinch
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:36am

re:I bet I've been right this whole time...

I nearly always scale in on paper positions rather than take on a full sized position at the beginning. I have a clear idea of where I want to add and where I am going to stop out if wrong before taking that first position -- though I usually don't have a pre-determined profit target. I prefer to let that run and tend to shoot for fewer home runs rather than lots of singles, so to speak. But scaling in is great because once I have money in the game the psychology changes considerably, and it becomes more advisable for me to trust my pre-determined levels than anything else because of the fact that my biases become so much stronger when I have skin in the game. Scaling in helps me manage that emotional/psychological aspect of things especially at the beginning of a swing or longer term run, before I've got some profit cushion on the position.

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:37am

GFMS reports substantial offtake of Gold by Central Banks

GFMS reports substantial offtake of Gold by Central Banks

Dow Jones news is carrying a report this morning from GFMS (formerly Gold Fields Mineral Services)detailing the amount of gold purchased last year by the world's Central Banks. It was indeed a formidable number.

The net purchases of the yellow metal came in near 430 tons, a more than 5-fold increase on the previous year. It was also the highest level recorded since 1964.

To give you a sense of the significance of these purchases - the amount of NET purchases by Central Banks in 2010 was a mere 77 tons!

Surprising to me was the fact that Mexico was the largest buyer as far as the official monetary sector goes. GFMS reports that they added almost 100 tons of gold to their reserves. I would have thought it would have been China to lead the pack.

The other surprising fact was that signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement ( this was set up to limit the amount of gold sold by European Central Banks ) sold less than 10 tons for 2011.

The summary - Central Banks are now absorbing a significant amount of world gold production. This should continue to provide very good downside support for the metal on price retracements lower as these banks do NOT CHASE PRICES HIGHER but are there to buy at levels they consider gold to have "value".

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:41am

Just bought...

i know i know.. i shouldn't be buying paper. But i couldn't help buy three December 2013 silver spreads - 38-39$. If those don't come through, then we are all fucked!!!!

Eric Original
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:44am


Lengthy piece from Rickards at KWN today. This time he stays in his wheel house, talking about currencies and QE3, rather than diving off into Iran. Encapsulates everything that Rickards has been talking about in terms of currency wars for months, with some warnings about slowing growth in China.

Blue Sky
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:46am
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:49am

Thanks TF

Appreciate the update. Scaling in is where it's at. We're going up.

The EU has (imo) a stealth and unannounced QE like situation going on where the ECB or EFSF or whatever 3-4 letter entity over is buying EU bonds up in a debt/bond sterilization process.

The build-up of LTRO funds parked overnight is accumulating quickly. Watch what happens when that cash is utilized and approx. 1 trillion euros or more gets unleashed into the marketplace overall or just the EU bond market.

Errands call, so I'll just drop a fresh newspaper off for everyone for now...

Dr G
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:53am

Resistance points for

Today's technicals are as follows:

Resistance points for today: Silver @ 30.44 / 30.52 / 30.61 (and support at 30.27). Gold @ 1661-1662 / 1665 (and support at 1657)

Moving averages for gold indicate a STRONG BUY.

Moving averages for silver indicate a BUY.

200 MA for gold is 1633 an 200 MA for silver is 29.63. Both metals are well above those 200 day moving averages.

Bullish despite the Cartel. Remember that with the Cartel involved, the metals are 2 steps forward and 1 step back.

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:53am

More on GFMS

Apologies for the cut-n-paste; my own comment is below the dashed line:

"GFMS is recognised as one of the world’s leading economics consultancies in precious metals, specialising in research into the global gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets."

"Gold may set a record high above $2,000 an ounce in late 2012 or early 2013, but the metal is nearing the end of a decade-long run that has lifted prices by more than 600 percent, metals consultancy GFMS said on Tuesday as it released a closely watched industry report.

"The report does acknowledge that the gold market is nearing the closing stages of its decade-long bull run and that, once the macroeconomic backdrop changes and investment in gold fades-probably some time next year-a secular retreat in the price will unfurl," GFMS said."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - will the macroeconomic backdrop change? Will interest rates increase at the end of this year? Will the FED & EuroBanks quit printing? Will the massive unemployment problem magically be resolved?


Jan 17, 2012 - 11:55am

come on 30. HOLD

thx 4 the update mrF

Frankenstein Government
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:55am

Scaling In

This is how I scale in.

I buy when I have extra fiat to burn. I don't really care what the price is. Why? Because long term- precious metals can only go one way. That is up. When the prices falls, I buy even more.

Unless of course you think the world's bankers can manufacture a Deus Ex Machina ending to trillions in debt. They have screwed the pooch and they can't rid themselves of the evidence...try as they might. Metals investors are simply the first people to understand this and position themselves. Others will follow.

Blue Sky
Jan 17, 2012 - 11:55am

The other side of the Chinese Coin

Although it arrives at the same conclusion as the KWN Rickards piece as posted by Eric O the argument is totally opposed. Who to believe?

Jan 17, 2012 - 11:56am

how to represent

The first position game has been elevated to a new level. Nicely done

Jan 17, 2012 - 12:04pm


LOVE WATCHING THE PRICES SUPPRESSION going on intraday... look at those nasty candles on /SI at midnight last night, and in the pre-market 5:30 am action. Fuck em! Even if they're celibate... keep stacking. If silver closes above $30 it will be the first time in a month. Just bought 50 SLV calls for March at the 33 strike price. .65 cents premium per share. TALK ABOUT PESSIMISM! As always, keep stacking. Check this little tool I built, to get the best deals on your bullion purchases.

balz bernard
Jan 17, 2012 - 12:06pm

I agree with you... But don't

I agree with you... But don't forget that when you buy SLV calls, you contribute giving them credibility and you help them continue to suppress the price.

Jan 17, 2012 - 12:10pm

  @HindeCapital how will

how will gold ever get to 3-5-7,000 with all the manipulation going on. 16 Jan Ben Davies, CEO Not all global participants are intervening in gold price. A new gold axis is forming and they want to procure phys gold 5 hours ago via TweetDeck
Jan 17, 2012 - 12:10pm

balz, yes-- this is true...

balz, yes-- this is true... but I also Double-Fuck them, when I take my 500%+ return and convert it into physical ;)


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