Proceeding As Planned

Thu, Jan 12, 2012 - 4:38pm

OK. I'd say that everything is proceeding along almost exactly was planned. I would have preferred that price not retreat as far as it did during the Comex session but it's not as if the attack was unexpected.

One of the reasons I get frustrated by folks that don't seem to read all of each post is that the answers to your questions are so often found in the current post or one of the recent ones. For example, recall this from the previous post. I put it in bold lettering there, too, so you would be sure to notice it.

"So there you go. Watch things very closely overnight and tomorrow. Gold should be your key. If it can move through 1645-50 overnight tonight, that level should then serve as support for the inevitable raid in London and/or New York tomorrow. If gold then survives and moves on toward 1660 and 1670, it will, of course drag silver along with it and the all-important silver bottom will most likely be in."

Whatever. The main thing is that the metals broke free and headed higher overnight. They were then, rather predictably, attacked on the Comex but resistance is now acting as support and all is well. At least for now.

Tomorrow, though, is a big day. Having broken out and then tested support, the metals need to rally tomorrow or they risk falling back and all of today's gains will have been for naught. Below are your charts but I'm also including two POSX charts here. Note that The Pig is resting right at 81 and, if it falls through there, it will likely drop rather quickly toward 80. This could be just the catalyst we need tomorrow to kick the metals higher.

One more thing, lot's of talk this afternoon about some kind of "delayed embargo" by the EU of Iranian oil.

Whether or not that means that peace on earth and nirvana will prevail is hard to tell at this point. What I do know is that I would not be considering pitching any long positions in crude until and unless the trendline from October is broken. Watch it very closely as a break of that line would indicate a possible drop all of the way back toward 93, if not 90.

Lastly, total OI in gold and silver continues to contract. Yesterday, gold fell almost 4000 contracts despite being up over $8 in price. This clearly indicates continued cartel short covering and is good news. Silver was similar in that total OI fell about 500 contracts but price was a few pennies higher.

That's all for today. Pay close attention to The Pig and the overnight trade in the metals. As mentioned above, tomorrow is a big day. We need to keep this momentum moving forward into next week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 12, 2012 - 4:41pm


first, sorry second

Jan 12, 2012 - 4:42pm
Jan 12, 2012 - 4:42pm


when do we get to $2000 gold and 50 $ silver again. that's my target:)

Jan 12, 2012 - 4:46pm

I'll take a wild guess

$2000 gold by June. $50 silver soon thereafter.

Jan 12, 2012 - 4:49pm

Another Silly Turdville TV broadcast.

Thanks Turd. It would certainly nice to see the price hang in and close over that $1650 mark. I keep thinking that something has to give soon. (MENA is nerve wracking to watch).

Here's another Turdville focused silly video.

Gold Action, The MSM and Sheep, Solyndra Bonuses


Bay of Pigs
Jan 12, 2012 - 4:50pm

Peace Silver

Again? We never got there to begin with...LOL.

I'll pass on the predictions this year, thanks.

Carthaginian TF
Jan 12, 2012 - 4:51pm

Turds Wild Guess

Not that wild bro... DMI is turning positive on Gold, I dont know if you follow it Turd, but works in an awesome way... Tune it on 13 days.

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:01pm

$50 silver

that's true we didn't really get there. but we will..we will

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:06pm

Just got this email from Sprott


The Financial System is a Farce: Part Three

2011 was a merry-go-round of more bailouts, more deferrals and more denial. Everyone is tired of the Eurozone. It’s not fixable. There’s too much debt. The politicians don’t know what’s going on. Nothing has structurally changed. We’re still on the wrong path. There’s more global debt than there was a year ago, and it’s the same old song: extend and pretend, extend and pretend,… around and around we go,… and it isn’t fun anymore.

Just as we wrote back in October 2007, and again in September 2008, we feel compelled to state the obvious: that the financial system is a farce. It’s a complete, cyclical farce that defies all efforts to right itself. This past year continued the farcical tradition with some notable scandals, deferrals and interventions that underscored the system’s continuing addiction to government interference. With the glaring exception of US Treasuries and the US dollar (which are admittedly two of our least favourite asset classes), it was not a year that rewarded stock picking or safe-haven assets. Many developments during the year bordered on the ridiculous, and despite some positive news out of the US, we saw little to test our bearish view. If anything, our view was continually re-affirmed.

Let’s start with MF Global. With more than two months passed since the scandal broke, federal officials are still unable to find the estimated US$1.2 billion of missing customer funds.1 The whole episode has been a disaster for the CME, the self-regulatory body in charge of making sure the futures brokers play by the rules. Normally in instances of broker bankruptcy, the CME is supposed to backstop client accounts and keep them liquid – i.e., allow them to continue trading while the bankruptcy gets settled. It never happened in this case. Client accounts were frozen for weeks. Funds have remained missing for months – an eternity for clients who were caught short. The great shock was watching how inept and incapable the CME was in 1) preventing the fraud in the first place and 2) recovering client assets during the aftermath. The CME essentially copped out of their responsibility, offering little more than some perfunctory press releases along the way. They were also surprisingly quick to offer excuses for their non-action. According to CME, it really wasn’t their fault, since CME had “no control over the disposition of customer segregated funds that are held by MF Global and not by CME Clearing”.2 Their on-site review of MF Global’s operations the week before its bankruptcy suggested that the brokerage firm was in full compliance of all the rules, so it wasn’t really the CME’s problem. But of course it was their problem. That’s what the CME is there for – to protect clients in cases of fraud or bankruptcy. To protect the “integrity of the exchange”.

In the weeks that have passed, a curious web of transactions have surfaced between MF Global, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Before its bankruptcy, MF Global had been drawing down a $1.2 billion revolving line of credit with JP Morgan. In bankruptcy court, JP Morgan was able to negotiate a lien on some of MF Global’s assets in exchange for paying $8 million towards bankruptcy costs. According to Reuters, “The lien puts JPMorgan’s interests ahead of MF Global customers who have not yet received an estimated $900 million worth of money from their accounts, which remain frozen as regulators search for missing funds.”3 It is also alleged that JP Morgan accepted a roughly $200 million transfer from MF Global the day before its bankruptcy to cover an overdraft in MF Global’s trading account held with them (it still isn’t clear if JP Morgan has the cash).4 MF Global also appears to have sold hundreds of millions worth of securities to Goldman Sachs in the days leading up to its collapse, but did not immediately receive payment for them from the MF Global’s clearing firm, none other than JP Morgan.

To be fair, on November 22nd, the CME did offer to pledge $550 million as a guarantee to the SIPC Trustee in the event that they did not recover all of the missing client funds, but we cynically wonder if that pledge was made after they finally figured out where all the money had gone. The CME seems to have had a good idea by early December, based on comments made by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) member, Jill Sommers.5 The bottom line is that MF Global’s client interests and security appear to have been side-stepped to buy time for bigger, more important players to cover their losses (asses), and that is not the way the regulatory system is supposed to function.

We’re not naïve – we know the government will always protect the interests of the big banks over paltry retail investors, but do they have to be so brazen about it? The MF Global episode is basically shameless. Then there’s Dodd-Frank. Remember Dodd-Frank? It’s the massive financial regulatory reform act that was signed into law by President Obama back in 2010. We are certainly not fans of cumbersome overregulation, but in its essence, Dodd-Frank was supposed to provide a new framework to address the potential failure of a too-big-to-fail bank. There’s nothing wrong with that. Given the sheer size of the off-balance sheet derivatives market, we don’t see a problem with at least attempting to prepare for another large scale banking failure in the US. But almost two years later, we have to laugh at how little of the Dodd-Frank framework has actually been implemented. According to law firm Davis Polk, a mere 21% of the act’s 400 rulemaking requirements have become finalized since the law passed in July 2010. Of the 200 Dodd-Frank rulemaking requirement deadlines that have already passed, 74.5% of them have been missed to date.6 The lawyers must be having a field day with all the paperwork.

One part of the Dodd-Frank story that interests us is the CFTC positions limits rule set to go into effect on January 17, 2012. The new position limits are aimed at preventing excessive speculation in the commodity markets which are believed by many, including ourselves, to have driven wild fluctuations in the gold and silver spot price over the past decade. Position limits are an obvious threat to large futures speculators like the big banks, so it was no surprise when two Wall Street lobby groups, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) launched a lawsuit against the CFTC demanding that the new rules on commodity trading be thrown out, or at the very least, delayed. The CFTC voted on the request to delay implementation and officially rebuffed it on January 4th, which is a heartening development in an otherwise cynical saga.7 Back in December, however, the CFTC had already quietly waived the position limit filing requirements on all CME participants until May 31, 2012.8 So even if the new rules go into effect this month, banks won’t have to report their position levels until May 31st either way. Given the lobby groups’ outstanding lawsuit against the new rules, combined with the CFTC’s apparent tendency to grant temporary reprieves, we don’t expect the new position limit rules to be enforced any time soon. Once summer approaches, there will probably be more delays and more deferrals, granting the big players plenty of time to protect themselves. Extend and pretend. Delay and defer. That’s the song we sing on the merry-go-round.

Then there’s Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB). Back in December, the mighty ECB had to step in with yet another massive liquidity injection to avert a total meltdown in the EU banking system. On December 21st, they flooded 523 separate EU banks with a “Long Term Refinancing Operation” (LTRO) program totaling €489.1 billion ($626 billion).9 The program consists of loans that are due in three years and will charge an accommodating 1% interest rate. The liquidity injection will allow the EU banks to participate in a delightfully convenient carry-trade whereby they can take the borrowed money at 1% interest and invest it in various sovereign debt auctions that will likely pay them 3% or higher. The banks will keep the difference in profit, and the EU PIIGS countries get to breathe easier knowing they’ll be able to sell their garbage paper to the EU banks at suppressed rates as long as the LTRO loan money lasts. And the best part? It doesn’t involve any money printing, so there’s really no risk of inflation, you see? So just so we’re on the same page, if everything goes according to plan this year, European sovereign governments will fund their debt auctions with borrowed money lent to them by over 500 European banks who have themselves borrowed hundreds of billions of euros from the European Central Bank,… who as far as we can tell, borrowed those euros from the various EU sovereign states (or simply printed them). Do you get it? Do you see the circularity? Do you see the can being kicked down the road? And guess what? Since €489.1 billion is clearly not enough to avert disaster this year (most EU banks are so undercapitalized they’ve simply parked the borrowed LTRO money back with the ECB at 0.25% interest), the ECB has promised to launch another LTRO injection this coming February!10No wonder gold was down in December. They completely solved the European debt crisis!

Last but not least, we must mention an alarming component of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that was quietly signed into law by President Obama on December 31st, 2011. This year’s defense bill, officially known as Senate Bill 1867, includes a specific provision that seems to grant the US government the power to detain accused terrorists, including US citizens,indefinitely, without trial.11,12 There has been much uproar and confusion over the language used in the sections of the Bill related to the subject, and it’s still not clear how the Bill will change the existing laws related to terrorism detention in the US, but it doesn’t bode well for constitutional freedom within the country. There’s obviously no direct market impact to the legislation, but we mention it only to remind investors how quickly the rules can change when governments feel vulnerable. ‘Political risk’ should no longer only be applied to mining investments in third world countries. In 2012, it may apply to us all.

It’s very difficult to predict what lies in store for the stock market this year. Anything could happen. Government intervention in the financial system has never been more extreme. We hope the examples above have shed some light on that. As we enter 2012, there are significant debt-related financial risks festering within the three great economic theatres of the world: the US, Europe and China. The market may rally, it could crash, it could tread water, we just don’t know. A lot will depend on how the central banks react. But we are eager to maintain the positioning that we held in 2011. We will maintain our exposure to precious metals equities and bullion. We will maintain our large gross short weightings in our hedge funds. We are confident that they will protect us on this farcical merry-go-round that seems to spin faster and faster with every passing day.

Be Prepared
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:07pm

Predictions of Tomorrow....

When TPTB control all the variables of setting the price and all discovery mechanisms seem to be broken, predictions for tomorrow are more about trying to guess their behavior and hoping that it is a consistent behavior driven by their greed and desire for power. The can will be kicked again this year..... the cracks will open even more, but I think the lids stay in place such that any upward or downward movement will be instigated with targets by them.

My Guess for June 2012.... : Gold: 1870 to 1900 range Silver: 36 to 38 range.

I see another correction between now and then where a lot of damage will be done that will have to be overcome with commodity demand. May or June is when the juicing for OBummer's campaign will start and so it will be a risk off period until October. All bets are off if Iran erupts or the Euro splits! :-}

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:08pm

Sprott's Article

On ZH it states part Three - where are the first two parts?

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:09pm

$50 Silver?

$50 silver? We better get there soon cuz ol' Pablo's got some serious digging to do from the hole he finds himself in since last July.

PS- Love you Turd :) Keep up the good work, brother...

I Run Bartertown
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:14pm

Behind the times today

TF – Thanks, man. I don’t trade, but I like to follow your posts so that I can feel like a future-seeing Warlock

From last thread (I was off working and striving to maintain the welfare set in the manner in which they have become accustomed):

ClinkinKY – Thanks for the ‘poverty’ post in the last thread. Good Stuff!

Drifter – You’re a Honeyville fan? You just went up a notch in my book.. I love that place. Those big cans make a more impressive stack than little bits o' metal. And you CAN eat it.

Treefrog – Beer Tax – You forgot Earned Income Beer Credit…those four deadbeats WOULD get paid to drink that beer. And eat, breed, be entertained, transported, etc...

$50 Ag by June? Pfft. I'm pulling for a collapse, purge, fresh start, and a whole new nation by then. Too soon?

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:19pm

Lucky Friday mine closed

This will cause a lose of 3.5 million oz of production this year.

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:22pm


...for the update and sharing the Sprott e-mail with us.

The non- Iranian oil embargo today seems irrelevant in the long term ( confrontation wise)but important enough today after the announcement to not only effect crudes price today, but to also effect gold and silver right after oil closed today in NY.

Both bounced upwards right at 2:30-ish and then grinded slowly higher since.

Oil effects gold in some measure imo but I haven't put it together just how and what the pattern is. There must be a dollar correlation somewhere after crude closes or capital that is put to work after crude closes. It's not always in lock step.

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:41pm


I had a feeling we were going to see the steg show up on the charts today. At least resistance is acting as support [for now]. Like many posters, I'd just like to say that Turd, yr posts of 2012 have so far all been outstanding, thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Jasper Puddlemaker
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:41pm

Sinclair, Field, vs. Boobus Moronus

Sinclair: "The accordion chop that we’ve been in over the last month or two is over and the downside risk of buying gold on reactions is now canceled."

Field: "Gold correction is over."

Boobus Moronus (Nadler): "Gold prices opened with a gain of $11 at $1,654 the ounce in New York while silver advanced about 40 cents to the $30.35 level. Both metals are in the midst of an upward push which might carry them to the $1,700 and $32 areas respectively, before their downtrends resume."

My apologies to anyone who was unknowingly sucked into reading Nadler's comments above. For the first time in many many months I clicked on his Kitco commentary link to see if he was still spewing out the same old shit. I guess he is. So I thought I would juxtapose a sentence or two of his synapse-deficient thoughts with those of Sinclair and Field.

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:45pm

Hecla mine closure

Has anyone mentioned that Hecla's lucky Friday mine has been closed by the Feds on Tuesday night and that it will cause a loss of 2.5-3 million oz of silver. There have been safety issues and it will take one year to clean out the loose rock.

Jan 12, 2012 - 5:47pm

Anyone know if Asian trading is closed tomorrow?

Kitco is showing Asia/Europe trading session as closed. With the US holiday on Monday, this kinds of weekends are usually rife with (EE) monkey business. Next week is make it break it time for the trend in PM prices. I'm looking at the 32.5oish area to be the Maginot line - we either cross it and confirm the trend has changed or we fail before then take one more more drubbing.

Somehow, I think the general stock markets are going to weaken into February, which creates a really challenging backdrop for precious metals to rally against. I've got some longer dated calls at $35, but plan to range trade between here and there until we break out decisively.

Swift Boat Vet
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:49pm

Quasi Turnips ?? Hey Turd !

Don't sweat the small sh*t, some here get so focused, rushed and flustered they display the memory and recall capacity of a turnip. Forget all those 'habitual bitchers' and just keep doing what you think is right. For every one of the aforementioned complainers, there are probably 100 very appreciative Turdites. Even with all that, I love 'em all. (well, most anyway)


Jan 12, 2012 - 5:53pm

Asian holidays

The Nikkei is open tomorrow, i don't know about China Though....

Turd, your posts have been so good this past month - kudos to you.

This is such a great site - thanks to you all for your input.

Dr G
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:53pm

Geez, looking at those

Geez, looking at those POSX charts, can you imagine the Pig falling all the way back to 72-74 range right now? That would be the catalyst for a CRAZY leg up in the metals.

Then again, the Euro has never been as big of a stink bomb as it is right now, so maybe the Pig will ignore technicals and move up instead on Euro weakness.

Dr G
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:55pm

A repost from the end of last

A repost from the end of last thread. I wanted to share it with you all in this new thread :)

TF, you are always keeping it real. Don't sweat it.

Here's a little secret that you probably don't want to know, but I'll share it anyway. Sometimes when me and Mrs G are getting frisky, I'll throw on my yellow hat you sent me and chase her around the house. Fun stuff!

Dr G
Jan 12, 2012 - 5:58pm

@Peace, too low my man :) I'm

@Peace, too low my man :) I'm looking for 8,000 gold and 700 silver. Short-term targets are 2500 and 90 :)

Turd, given your June predictions, whaddaya think about summer doldrums this year? I think not!

I Run Bartertown
Jan 12, 2012 - 6:06pm


I know

Just wishful thinking. I'd hate for it to take too long in coming. It would be hard dealing with SHTF from a walker. A cane might be ok.

Since the people on our side are all moral and crap , I look to these degenerates (and many who are even worse) to set things off: - run of the mill commies - be warned, this one is nasty - justifying specific rapes and murders, including little girls, as 'reparations' and 'race karma' - Aztlan/Reconquista types

I hope they don't let me down, but they're really not known for getting things done or being very useful. We don't really need effectiveness from them, though. Just a big enough tantrum to get the ball rolling.

Jan 12, 2012 - 6:08pm

Asian holidays

The Hang Seng is also open tomorrow - i don't know what kitco is talking about.....

Jan 12, 2012 - 6:10pm

Turd, thank you for all you

Turd, thank you for all you do. And especially want to thank you for posting the Sprott emails. Not on that level yet to be in touch with the Canadian wizard himself.. yet... but hopefully in the future we can all toast over a nice dinner of ASEs and Fascist fucks.


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Be Prepared
Jan 12, 2012 - 6:15pm

@IRB - Big Wheels... Big Grind

Hey Buddy, I don't see the big crash this year (imo). The gears of this big machine have to grind quite awhile before they come off because everything was added in layers and entropy takes time to have its effect. There are, as we know, many things afoot which could throw a grenade into the works much sooner, but I still think TPTB want more time to get it positioned just right. :-}

Air Garcia
Jan 12, 2012 - 6:23pm

Crude Advice ...

Thanks Turd for the insight on that ... my March 140 will soon die worthless, but there is still hope for the next round!


balz Jasper Puddlemaker
Jan 12, 2012 - 6:36pm

@Jasper Puddlemaker

Why do you think Nadler is pushing silver down? Isn't his job at Kitco supposed to be cheering for metals? Unless.... Unless Kitco is massively shorting metals themselves to hedge against physical?

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