Breakout Coming? An Important 24 Hours Begins Now.

Wed, Jan 11, 2012 - 6:36pm

As we've gone through this week, I've tried to lead you to this point. We examined open interest and secondary technical indicators. Everything points toward a bottom and a breakout. Now the question is: Will price follow? We will soon know. The next 24-48 hours will tell the tale.

Let's just go straight to the charts. First is gold. I start with gold because, if the breakout occurs, I think that gold will be the driver and that silver will come along for the ride. First of all, here's an 8-hour Feb gold. You can clearly see the significance of the 1645-1650 area. Above there, and it looks like a bottom is in. In fact, it's a double bottom aligned with the panic lows of September. Below 1645 however and you are still rangebound and, of course, the possibility always exists for another test of the lows of the range.

So, if 1645 is so important, we can expect The Cartel to defend it. Are they? You be the judge. (Note the dark blue candles that follow the two encroaches today at 1645.)

I think it's likely that 1645 will fall, though. Go back up and look at the 8-hour chart again. Look at the severity of the attacks I circled. Those are $60 and $30 beatdowns. All we saw today were $10 beatdowns. Throw in the fact that total OI rose yesterday (a $23 up day) by 3000 contracts and it appears that The Cartel is resigned to letting gold move higher. In the end, they don't mind letting 1645 go because the real battle will be near 1700, when gold encounters the down trendline from the highs back in September. If The Cartel lets 1645 go, they'll simply fall back and begin their fortifications and battle plan for "main event", later this month.

So, here's the big deal. If gold breaks through 1645, you can almost be certain that silver will rally along with it and silver tonight rests at a very important crossroads. First of all, look at how aggressively the EE defended $30.20 today. Note that there three, different attempts to move through that area. Also note that each attempt was met with a big, blue candle in the very next hour. This is direct evidence of EE price capping.

So, why is 30.20 so important, you ask? Well, check out these next two charts and you'll see.

Clearly, silver is at a very important juncture. It will either move higher and through 30 and beyond over the next 24-48 hours or it will fail and be pressed lower, probably leading to a re-test of the $26 area over the next 10 days. What will happen?

Again, I believe that gold is the key. If gold breaks out through 1645 as I expect, it will drag silver with it. The EE will be forced to retreat and a double bottom near $26 will have been set. The EE appears resigned to this fact, too. Note that yesterday, a day when silver was up over $1, the total open interest actually declined by 300 contracts. This tells me that the EE was actively covering shorts yesterday in the rally and the primary reason they would do that is because they fear the breakout that seems to be just over the horizon.

So there you go. Watch things very closely overnight and tomorrow. Gold should be your key. If it can move through 1645-50 overnight tonight, that level should then serve as support for the inevitable raid in London and/or New York tomorrow. If gold then survives and moves on toward 1660 and 1670, it will, of course drag silver along with it and the all-important silver bottom will most likely be in.

I will be watching this all very closely and updating this post overnight and tomorrow. Stay positive and stay tuned.


10:10 am EST UPDATE:

First of all, many have commented that it's nice to see "the old Turd back". Not sure what that means but if it pertains to TA, please understand that the last 100 days or so have not been conducive to trading and forecasting. However, with this breakout, I firmly believe that the uptrends are resuming in both gold and silver. Additionally, these site changes I keep mentioning are designed to almost separate the TA from all the other stuff. Hopefully, the markets will continue to prove me right and you will once again see the incredible value of the forecasting that is supplied here.

Gold and silver broke out right on cue overnight and, after pausing near the Comex open, have moved higher still. This is very encouraging. From here, let's not ask for much. Let's simply hope that the metals hold onto these gains through the Comex pit session and close above those resistance levels we've been watching for so long. Namely, gold needs to hold and close above 1650 and silver closes not just above 30.20 but 30.50, as well.


p.s. Full Disclosure: I couldn't help myself today. As you know, the CME and JPM graciously decided to return about 2/3 of my MFingGlobal cash. Since it does not appear that a Comex failure is imminent, I took $1500 and bought a March $35 silver call this morning. Bad Turd. Playing with the criminals again. But, it is only $1500 so I figured...what the heck? As always, I'll keep you posted in how I do and what I might do next.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Be Prepared
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:27am

OBummer has it now.... "Insourcing" is the Answer

Wow... it is freaky how this guy thinks.... maybe we should remove the incentive to outsource jobs by getting rid of the tax breaks that helped strip America of 15 million jobs and, now, we will provide tax breaks to help bring jobs back. It's too late bubble-head... those jobs aren't coming back because we've lost all of our manufacturing infrastructure and know-how.... but these corporations will just head fake everything to get the best "bill" passed that will benefit the few and the "not-so" proud corporatonians.


WASHINGTON — President Obama said on Wednesday that he would propose tax incentives for companies to bring home manufacturing jobs they had moved overseas, and curtail tax breaks for those that keep relocating jobs abroad.

Flanked by executives from the aerospace, chemical and furniture industries — all of whom are building or expanding factories in the United States — Mr. Obama declared that the nation was beginning to see the reversal of a long-term trend toward outsourcing. He called the new trend, perhaps inevitably, “insourcing.” <Rest of the Article>

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:27am

Sometimes I swear that one or

Sometimes I swear that one or two of The Monkeys read my stuff. Maybe Ruprecht himself checks this site?

All I know is that as soon as I post an update mentioning that I had bought a call, gold and silver immediately take a quick dump. Uncanny.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:28am


There is a strong probability that the correction in the price of gold has been completed. This article has four separate sections. They are:

  1. The Elliott Wave (EW) justification for thinking that the correction in gold is over.
  2. Why corrections happen in gold from a fundamental viewpoint.
  3. The extent to which manipulation affects the gold price.
  4. A possible “black swan” event that could trigger a gold price surge.

Justification for the end of the gold price correction:

In EW terms, the correction consists of three waves, an A wave down, a B wave rally and a final C wave decline. There is usually a relationship between the A and C waves. Often they are equal or have a Fibonacci connection. The chart below is of the gold price using PM fixings:

In this case, the A and C waves are equal in percentage terms at 14.5% and 14.7%. The overall decline from $1895 to $1531 is -$364 or -19.2%. My speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium last November – link at - showed that the largest corrections in the previous Intermediate wave from $700 to $1895 were about 12% in PM fixings. The forecast was that the current correction from $1895 would be one degree of magnitude larger than 12%. A decline of 19.2% qualifies as one degree larger than 12%.

An interesting observation is that if 12% is multiplied by the Fibonacci relationship of 1.618, the result is 19.4%, very close to the actual 19.2% decline for the correction. The chart below is of the gold price in Comex 2mth forward prices:

The Gold Symposium speech suggested that the correction would be between 21% and 26% in spot gold prices. The actual decline was from $1920 to $1523, a loss of -$397, or -20.7%. This is just below the target range but qualifies as one degree larger than the 14% corrections in the previous up move from $680 to $1913.

The C wave of the correction in the chart above reveals some symmetrical subdivisions which confirm that the C wave was completed at $1523 on 29 December 2012. With all the minor waves in place and with the correction being of the correct size, that should be the end of both the correction and Intermediate Wave II.

The probability of this analysis being correct is high, perhaps 75%? Smaller probabilities allow for: (i) this to be an A wave of a larger magnitude correction; (ii) the current correction becoming more complex, perhaps reaching the lower price targets (e.g. -26%); and (iii) the possibility of deflation, defaults and depression emerging, also testing lower price targets.

The up move just starting should thus be Intermediate Wave III of Major Wave THREE, the longest and strongest portion of the bull market. The gain in Intermediate Wave I from $680 to $1913 was 181%. The gain in Intermediate Wave III should be larger, at least a 200% gain. A gain of this magnitude starting from $1523 targets a price over $4,500. The largest corrections on the way to this target, of which there should be two, should be in the 12% to 14% range.

Why Gold is prone to numerous corrections:

Gold is unique amongst metals, partly because it is not consumed, but also because it has some unusual qualities. It has no utility value. One cannot eat it or drink it. It earns no income, does not corrode and does not tarnish. Other qualities include divisibility (a quantity of gold can be divided into smaller quantities) and it is fungible, (one ounce of gold can be substituted for another ounce of gold of the same degree of fineness). There are large stocks of gold available and new annual production has generally been less than 2% of the stock of gold. These are the very qualities that caused gold to be used as money over the millennia.

Other metals and commodities are produced for consumption. When their stocks build up due to supply exceeding demand, holders become forced sellers due to the cost of storage or due to spoilage. Thus the price of the commodity drops to a level where marginal producers go out of business until demand exceeds supply. Then stock levels decline until they are exhausted and conditions of shortage prevail. This results in sharply rising prices for that commodity, eventually attracting new suppliers. In soft commodities, weather conditions can also play havoc with stock levels, causing dramatic price changes.

The point is that with all commodities other than gold, stock levels are important determinants in the price of the commodity. Gold has been accumulated over the years because it was money or as a hedge against a range of fiscal, economic and political risks. The stock of gold relative to new annual gold production has always been high.

In 1971, when the $35 per ounce link between the US dollar and gold was severed, it was assumed that all the gold produced throughout prior history was about 90,000t. This is a rubbery figure and should probably be a higher number. As it is not important to this discussion, we will use 90,000t as a starting point. Over the centuries some gold was lost or was no longer available to the market. If we assume that about 15,000t was lost, it means that in 1971 about 75,000t of gold was available to the market. New production in 1971 was 1,450t, less than 2% of the available stock of gold.

One reliable figure available in 1971 was that gold held by central banks and official institutions was about 37,000t. By deduction, the remaining 38,000t of the available stock must have been owned by investor/hoarders in the form of bullion, coins or jewelry. New production of 1,450t in 1971 was meaningless when compared to stocks of 75,000t. The future gold price was going to be determined by what existing holders of gold did with their stocks and what the level of demand would be from new buyers. For several reasons there was considerable new buying of gold during the 1970’s, resulting in a sharply rising gold price.

Fast forwarding 40 years to our current situation, new mine production over this past 40 year period may have been about 90,000t, of which perhaps 10,000t has been lost or consumed by industry or in jewelry not suitable for reclamation. That leaves 80,000t to be added to the 1971 estimated stock level of 75,000t, giving a current total gold stock of 155,000t. Recent annual production has been about 2,500t, which is still under 2% of the available stock.

Whereas the gold owned by central banks and official institutions in 1971 was a reliable amount of about 37,000t, we no longer have accurate figures for gold held by official sources. We know that central banks have reduced their holdings over the years, either by selling or leasing.

Central banks no longer publish accurate figures of their gold holdings, but for purposes of this discussion, let us assume that the current level is 30,000t, a decline of 7,000t from 1971 levels. The central bank sales of 7,000t must have been absorbed by the investor/hoarders, taking their adjusted total to 45,000t before adding the 80,000t of new production since 1971. That means that new buyers have entered the market over the past 40 years and have swelled the total gold held by investor/hoarders to perhaps 125,000t. (38,000+7,000+80,000). That is a lot of gold!

These numbers are guesstimates as there is no way to substantiate them. The important thing is that the trend indicates that investor/hoarders must own a considerable amount of gold, at least several times larger than the quantity held by central banks. Whenever gold goes to new all time high prices, all investor/hoarders have a profit on their holdings of gold. When the gold price rockets $400 per ounce from $1500 to $1900 in just seven weeks, as it did last July and August, the profits available to investor/hoarders are vast and mouth watering. Not surprisingly, many decide to take some profits while new buyers become cautious due to the rapid price rise.

The result is a correction in the gold price. This is a normal occurrence and will happen from time to time, especially when the gold price pushes to new highs. The natural result of a large stock of gold held by investor/hoarders is that occasional corrections must be expected.

Extent of manipulation in the gold market:

It is hard to visualize much manipulation in the physical market for gold when investor/hoarders own 125,000t and the volume traded is large. The futures market is another story. Gold futures trading became popular in the 1970’s when the price was freed from its $35 per ounce collar. It was possible to control a large amount of gold for a deposit of 10% or less, enabling punters to gear up their positions substantially.

There are many similarities between casinos and futures markets. In a casino the house holds the punter’s money and issues plastic chips for them to gamble with. The odds offered by the casino always favor the house so that there are always more losers than winners, the difference being the profit margin for the casino. In the futures market, every transaction requires someone else to take the opposite bet. Both parties put up the necessary deposits which are held by the market operator. Again losses will always exceed gains, the difference being accounted for by the brokerage and market costs.

In a casino, if one had an unlimited amount of money, one could devise a method of escalating bets so that when one eventually had a win, all prior losses would be recovered plus the desired percentage profit. For example, in roulette over a lengthy period all columns or dozens (the 2 to1 shots) come up slightly less than 33% of the time. A player betting on one of these with unlimited funds would know that sooner or later a winning bet would occur. When it does, the player recovers the cumulative losses plus the desired percentage profit. A foolproof system? Not quite. Casinos impose limits on each table for every bet, which prevents this.

In the futures market it is possible for players with unlimited funds to operate a similar system on the short side of the gold market. As explained in the previous section, corrections do happen in the gold market, especially after the price has risen to new highs. If the player knows that a correction will occur eventually, with unlimited funds he can increase his short position at higher prices until the correction happens. Then he closes his position, hopefully banking a profit.

This could be circumvented by imposing limits on the size of the position that a player can build, just as the casinos impose limits on each type of bet. This is extremely difficult to regulate and monitor in the futures markets. The authorities probably rely on the knowledge that every contract sold short has to be bought back at some time, thus the position is self-correcting. This is true, but the manipulation aspect occurs when the correction has started and the player with the big short position gives the market a nudge on the downside, triggering stop loss orders.

Most players on the long side are operating on margin. That is the attraction of the futures market, to gear up profits. These players are operating with limited funds, so they either have stop loss orders in place, which become market orders when triggered. Or they fail to provide additional cash when their brokers ask for more margin, which causes the broker to sell out their positions, once again placing sell orders “at market”.

“At market” orders are sold at whatever the best buying price is available at that time in the market. If this happens when markets are thin and the major markets are not operating, this can cause an avalanche of selling. The sharp downward spike on 26 September last year is typical of what can happen in these circumstances. That is the time when the “deep pockets” player will probably be covering his short position.

It should be obvious from this that the futures market is an extremely dangerous place in which to participate in the gold market. There are other risks that have only recently come to light regarding futures markets. Sticking with the casino analogy, assume that you have had a bit of luck in the casino and decide to cash in your plastic chips. When you get to the cashiers counter it is closed with a sign saying “Run out of money. Come back tomorrow morning”. You return the next day only to find a sign saying that the casino is bankrupt and is closed! Enquiries elicit the information that the cashier took all the casino’s money, went to a nearby casino and lost the lot.

In the futures market, the operator holds all the cash while the punters have contracts. The operator uses the cash to pay out the winners and cover expenses. Assume that the futures operator decides to take a risky position for the operator’s own benefit in another market but uses the cash contributed by the punters. The risky venture goes sour and the operator goes bankrupt. The punters are left high and dry. While all the facts have yet to emerge, it seems that this is possibly what caused the demise of MF Global.

As the world navigates this period of great financial and economic crisis, we need to be extremely vigilant and cautious with our investments. Be wary of paper claims on gold and always be conscious of the old saying: “Gear today, gone tomorrow”. Limit investments to what one can afford to pay for in cash.

A possible “black swan” event that could trigger a sharp gold rally:

To achieve the EW target of $4,500 on the next upward move will require something to trigger substantial new buying of gold. What could that event be? By definition, it will be a surprise to all market participants, a “black swan” event. That doesn’t prevent us from making a guess.

One likely area from which problems could emerge with very large numbers are derivatives. The Bank for International Settlements produces a list of outstanding derivatives twice a year. The latest report can be found at: This reveals that the total notional value increased from $601 trillion (with a “t”) at December 2010 to $707 trillion at June 2011. Nearly all of the increase was accounted for by interest rate contracts which now have a notional value of $553 trillion, some 78% of the total.

As we discovered in 2008, derivatives are benign until losses occur. Once losses emerged from credit default obligations, it was game on for the GFC. Interest rate derivatives protect banks from interest rate rises. Most banks borrow short but have large loan books at fixed rates for long periods. Thus a big rise in interest rates could trigger claims on these derivatives.

For the time being, rates seem to be locked at virtually zero in the USA, but this is not the case in Europe. Europeans are learning the lesson that rates rise when investors become concerned that the borrower can’t repay the amount borrowed, let alone the interest on the capital. When we drill down further into the BIS statistics at we discover that $219 trillion of the interest rate derivatives are denominated in Euros, compared with $170 trillion denominated in US Dollars.

If just 10% of the interest rate derivatives in Euro’s produce losses, the world’s banking system would be looking down the barrel of a loss of $22 trillion. That is enough to bankrupt the entire world’s banking system, something that the politicians of the world could not tolerate. What would a bail out of $22 trillion do to financial markets? What would it do to the gold price?

If it is not interest rates, there are $64 trillion of foreign exchange derivatives and a “mere” $32 trillion of credit default swaps outstanding that could produce “black swan” surprises.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:32am


Bad Turd. Playing with the criminals again. But, it is only $1500 so I figured...what the heck?

Hahaha the flesh is weak, but thats why it's great to be alive !

Good luck in the casino......

ClinkinKY Be Prepared
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:36am

@ Be Prepared--"Insourcing is the answer"--Too little, too late.

REVOLT!… CEO’s Blow Off Obama’s Big Jobs Summit & Photo-Op

Posted by Jim Hoft on Wednesday, January 11, 2012, 4:33 PM

Poor Joe Biden sat all alone!
The CEO’s had better things to do.

When Barack Obama invited several CEO’s to his Wednesday jobs summit discussion and photo-op he didn’t expect this…
They blew him off.
No thank you, Mr. President.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:37am

Solid Analysis

Thanks TF for last nights and todays update. Spot on.

This might sound a bit wreckless but I got my dad into some Hecla yesterday at about 10 a.m. yesterday after watching it plummet. I know the reasons why and thought it was a over reaction

He grabbed a 1000 shares at $4.31. He'll hold it for now.

I'm feeling pretty good about it right now. So is he

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:41am
Bay of Pigs
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:44am


You can bet your ass that Blythe and her Monkeys are there 24/7, high fiving whenever they can scalp a few billion here and there. LOL...

Seriously, I've always considered you to be one of the better TA guys around. After the May fiasco, you have gotten better at spotting potential EE smack downs and such. You have made some very good calls lately and not gotten ahead of yourself nor too down when so many were ready to throw the towel in lately.

A balanced and consistent message. Certainly not a "pumper" as I've been called so many times around here.

Hat Tip to you Sir...and many thanks for your efforts to educate and enlighten on the Bigger Picture.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:48am

Hey, It's Not Like It's Real Money...

Unreal: Taxpayer-Funded Boondoggle Solyndra Asks Bankruptcy Court For Permission To Hand Out $500K In Bonuses…

Some serious chutzpah.

(Washington Times) — Now seems an unlikely time for handing out bonuses at bankrupt Solyndra LLC, but that’s the plan of company attorneys intending to dole out up to a half-million dollars to persuade key employees to stay put.

Nearly two dozen Solyndra employees could receive bonuses ranging from $10,000 to $50,000 each under a proposal filed by Solyndra’s attorneys in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.

The attorneys say the extra money will add motivation at a time when workers at the solar company have little job security and more responsibilities because so many of their colleagues have been fired.

The names of the bonus-eligible employees are not disclosed in the court filings that outline the bonus proposal. None of the employees is among the so-called corporate “insiders” — top officers or members of the board of directors, records show.

The proposed bonus recipients include nine equipment engineers, six general business and finance employees and up to two information technology workers.

The biggest bonus, for $50,000, would go to a Solyndra employee whose job title is listed as a senior director with a base salary of $206,499 per year. Two senior managers stand to receive bonuses of $30,000 and $32,500.

Keep reading…

Dr G
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:53am
Dr G
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:53am

@Turd, just testing support,

@Turd, just testing support, that's all. It's healthy :)

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:54am

PM IRA suggestions

Can anyone recommend an IRA administrator that will hold physical gold. I have a friend who just can't bear to take a tax hit...

Do you NOT trust certain companies? Are these administrators allowed to hypothecate the gold? Do some really just hold paper gold?

Thanks in advance.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:55am

I am Linus

Blythe is Lucy. The pumpkin is silver.

Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown - You Didn't Tell Me You Were Gonna Kill It
Doctor J
Jan 12, 2012 - 10:58am


I've seen ads for this place pop up from time to time. Click on it the next time you see one.

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:59am


Nice to see some strength in the metals today! You called it perfectly Turd.

I might add that the Euro has been dropping relentlessly against the greenback and although metals decoupled from the EUR/USD after Christmas, the influence remains.

Why this is important is that if you haven't been following, the EUR/USD hit a possible double bottom yesterday and given the recent decline- a retrace was likely and healthy. I unloaded all my EUO calls yesterday narrowly missing the bottom (I'll get back in soon). Point being that a EUR/USD bounce by extension should remove some of the headwinds for metals and allow for some healthy gains.

Today we have the bounce (at 1.2809 as I type this) in the eur/usd with a possible target of 1.3 which could help clear the road to $32 silver on the temporary weakening of the greenback.

Been a great start to the trading year so far. I found shorting the Euro was a good hedge for my silver leading into the end of last year and then once they depegged, all cylinders a-go. Pick the right wave and hop on board for a ride! Cheers!

Jan 12, 2012 - 10:59am


It did look like a BREAK-OUT was in store. Unfortunately, the ALGOS and COMPUTERS have taken over the system. The future still looks extremely bright for gold and silver. Anyhow, this day isn't over yet.

There is also a reason why the Commercials have 55,000 Short US Dollar contracts and only 5,000 Long.

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:02am

Dr. Jerome

I recommend you call Renee Lawson at International Precious Metals. They will work with your friend to set up a physical gold IRA through the Sterling Trust. Contact number is 800-781-2090.

My personal experience in setting mine up through Renee was excellent. Cannot speak wrt any other investor experiences, but suspect they were very professionally and efficiently handled.

Smiddywesson ¤
Jan 12, 2012 - 11:15am



Tell your dad I bought my first mining shares yesterday too, it was also Hecla at $4.62.

That whole story smelled badly to me. The company execs are known for playing games, and I don't believe for a minute the shaft will be closed for a full year. It was a deal so I bought it to buy and hold. In this environment, it has to be a deal to hold or I won't buy, there's just so much manipulation in shares right now I don't want to try and trade them.

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:27am

A bit more strength in gold...

...than I was expecting. But I still think the downside will eventually prevail when stocks roll over (could be wrong). I've got my stops in if I am wrong. I'm carrying a rather large DUST position (3X short GDX), have 2 levels of sell stops in place so that I'm "backed out" in 2 separate chunks, and will just wait to see what happens. If they trigger, they trigger. That's the way the game's played. Good trading to all. Gotta run.

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:31am


As I'm forever still learning, only trade Silver and hate trying to close paper positions at a temporary top (which I never seem to get right I might add), what's the best short trade I can do in order to leave my long PM positions open (ie to try & profit from the dips)? Probably a dopey question, got lucky with the S&P drop but I haven't got a clue really!

Also as tpbeta poste what happens when the 'CDS train heading down the tracks with a big Greek flag on the front' arrives? (Think it's due March 2012)

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:36am

Central Bank Propaganda

I was doing a bit of research on the ECB and came across this video on their YouTube channel. Pure propaganda and if it isn't a case of the "pot calling the kettle black", I don't know what is.

They have comments disabled on the video (wonder why).

Price stability: why is it important for you ?


Eric Original
Jan 12, 2012 - 11:39am

Doc J

Provident is a very highly regarded precious metals dealer here on the site. I don't know any reason why they wouldn't be totally on the up and up with a metals IRA as well.

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:43am


I hear you on that. I felt that with the Dow and S&P being down at the time (HUI also) and with the dollar up and with silver being in a neutral to negative sentiment overall that HL had mostly upside at that point imo. When all of those parameters reverse at some point is when yesterdays low looks like a good bargain in the long run. It sounds like to me that "MSHA" just wants them to clear all of the loose material out of the mine and along the mine walls so that any fracturing/bursting isn't likely. It's housecleaning basically that they're being forced to do.

I called my dad after the market opened and I watched HL just scream downwards and he jumped on it and didn't question me. He also has a Scottrade account and he did it there quickly. I'm glad to hear I wasn't the only one who was eye-balling the situation and thought "opportunity". Nice to hear your view on this also.

I think TF called that bottom around $1630-ish correctly ($26-ish double bottom also in Ag) around Xmas and I had been thinking a few days before New years that were going to trend up from there. All of that money on the sidelines will come back into the market in some small measure at some point. I don't believe ZH's hyperbole or quasi-assertions that volume will entirely dry up. It didn't during the depression when there was a whole lot less money in circulation, why would it now?

Keep up your good analysis. I like your posts.

Katie Rose
Jan 12, 2012 - 11:49am


Last night the local evening news out of Spokane, WA, featured the closure of HECLA and what it would mean for the small town where the HECLA miners reside.

Mullen is a small town of approx. 800 people. Over 25% of the population work at the mine. Their average salary is around 100K a year. The reporter was interviewing a local cafe owner and other small business owners. They were very despondent, as the closing of the mine will probably lead to the death of their businesses.

They were also concerned about the miners as unemployment payments will not begin to meet the expenses of the families (house, auto, medical ins. payments).

They interviewed the CEO (?) of HECLA. He said he was very surprised at the Mine Safety Board's decision to keep the mine closed. He thought they had fulfilled to the letter all the requirements of the Board. As it is, their 5000+ air/supply shaft has to be completely rebuilt. He said it will take about a year.

I don't know if the Feds are correct in their requirements. I do know that there is going to be a lot of collateral damage.

It was a very poignant segment. It was clear that the Feds just killed that little town set amongst beautiful mountains and gorgeous landscape.

s2man Doctor J
Jan 12, 2012 - 11:49am

Doc, I think Miles Franklin

Doc, I think Miles Franklin (Ranting Andy's firm) has PM IRAs, but I can't find a link right now.

Edit: googling it brought up plenty of links...

Jan 12, 2012 - 11:49am


Peter If EUR stays above 1.26 and FED don't print, what will be driver for Gold Price 5 hours ago Jim Rickards time 10 minutes ago via web
Jan 12, 2012 - 11:54am

To many of these dogs

To many of these dogs have fleas, need to call in the fumigator.

Jan 12, 2012 - 12:02pm

Copper rising

I like the look of copper today! In indicator of the next few days?

Be Prepared ClinkinKY
Jan 12, 2012 - 12:10pm

ClinkinKY - OBummer's Job Conference

It's funny seeing Biden being all back of the bus.... the empty chairs show how much the business world believes in "Our Dear Leader."

Jan 12, 2012 - 12:14pm

Thanks SRS

For that Bank Participation report. Found the website online and I will be following numbers closely.




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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)