Other Technical Indicators

Tue, Jan 10, 2012 - 6:50pm

As you know, I like to poke fun sometimes at the chartists and the elliotts for relying so heavily upon their squiggly lines that they fail to see the forest from the trees. At the risk of seeming hypocritical, I thought I'd show you some charts that include those squiggly lines this evening as I continue my search for tradable bottoms.

Before we begin, a recap of today and a repost of the charts I included as an update to the earlier blog. To simply summarize, yes today was great. Both metals broke free of their recent downtrends and looked good doing it. However, keep in mind that today was a Tuesday and "Happy Tuesday" often results from The Cartel covering some shorts in an effort to "paint" the CoT survey that took place after the close this afternoon. Because of this, do not be surprised to see the metals give back some of today's gains tomorrow. Additionally, let's be sure to check the OI numbers from today when they are released tomorrow. If new money was driving today's gains, we will see a nice increase in OI. If today was primarily a Cartel short-covering event, the OI will be relatively flat. Regardless, the gains in price are real and both metals suddenly have a much improved technical picture. Let's see what the rest of the week brings. To really get me excited, silver needs to close above $30.50. Gold needs to first close above $1650. Then it needs to break the downtrend line from the highs of September. That line is currently near $1680.


OK, now let's look at two, other technical indicators as we search for a bottom. First, a disclaimer:

Look, we all know that the metals are blatantly and selfishly manipulated by The Cartel. In fact, my ability to accurately forecast price is primarily due to my understanding of this manipulation. However, as you know, the major spec money in the pits is driven primarily by HFT algos and technical indicators are some of the primary factors that cause the algos to switch from buy to sell and vice versa. So, technical analysis indicators are occasionally quite helpful in that, in the closed-loop of single market trading, if all participants are looking at the same information, price forecasting almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, here we go. Let's look at two of the major indicators and see if they are telling us anything. First up,


Definition: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve

Now look at these pretty charts. The blue line is the one you want to watch. Note that the blue line often bottoms shortly after price bottoms OR tops shortly after price tops. What you are looking for are price trend changes that are signaled by the blue line crossing over the red line. Look closely. Maybe print these off yourself. Notice that, recently, the blue line crossed UP through the red line in both gold and silver. This is good news!


And the other technical indicator we need to review is the...


Definition: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi

The RSI only gives you only line to follow. When the line reaches way up over 70, the commodity is generally considered to be "overbought" and subject to a decline. Conversely, when the line is down near 30, the commodity is considered to be "oversold".

First, on the gold chart, note that lows in the RSI have generally occurred one week before lows in price and a couple of weeks prior to price trendline breakouts. Also note that the RSI itself will breakout from downtrends and, when it does, it usually portends higher prices. In silver, we get a similar picture. Pay special attention to the longterm RSI trendline. It has been downsloping since May and it just broke out back at the first of the year. This is a very encouraging development.


Again, secondary technical indicators are not the be-all-end-all that many chartists make them out to be. However, they can occasionally be helpful when looking for trend changes in price...kind of like what we are currently doing. When you combine the RSI, the MACD, the price charts and the OI numbers, you begin to get a sense that we have seen the bottom in both metals . Let's now just patiently wait for price to confirm these developments.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Boswell I Run Bartertown
Jan 10, 2012 - 9:21pm

"Technical" Problem on CSPAN

Dropped a minute or two near the beginning.

Jan 10, 2012 - 9:24pm

"Dropped a minute or two near

"Dropped a minute or two near the beginning."

Assholes is the only word that comes to mind.

Jan 10, 2012 - 9:25pm

RP is just freaking awesome

GREAT speech in New Hampshire tonight. I can certainly understand where dyed-in-the-wool liberal democrats don't and won't support Ron Paul. What I can't understand, however, is how any rational and thinkng person could hear Rep Paul's speech tonight and NOT support him, particularly considering the option of voting for any of the five clowns running against him.

Turdle GG
Jan 10, 2012 - 9:27pm

Smoking gun, continued

Follow up to my post above, see the official statement from Hilbebrand, with accompanying e-mails:


On the fifth page of the pdf document, you can see a "Client Contact Report", in which Hilbrebrand's private banker makes notes about a meeting with Hilbrebrand (and presumably his wife as well), including this note:

"Kashya mentioned that she may look at buying Put options on gold soon , i.e. when the time is right...."

The meeting took place on August 15.

Jan 10, 2012 - 9:30pm

Looking For This in 2012

Mates, just want to weigh in on a few things.

Here is what I learned from Jan-Dec. 2011:

(1) I am far more knowledgeable about the silver and gold Comex manipulations, and the emotional aspects to it. I am not phased at all now by the recent downturn in the physical spot markets, unlike how I felt back during the April 2011 run up or the gut wrenching May massacre. The reason for this, is, of course, Turd's fantastic blog post and the awesome comments, all of them. I read all of the posts, and I draw my own conclusions. I do not offend easily, so if I don't like a post personally, I do appreciate the contrasting view point for sure.

(2) I can determine sentiment very easily now. When all the posts here are gloomy, then the bottom is likely closely at hand. If everyone is sunny and happy, I get VERY wary. This kind of conditioning is extremely unnatural, and it has taken a very long time to try to get in tune with it, but it sure works.

(3) I wish I would have read Jim Rickards Currency Wars earlier. Fantastic book. It contains an excellent true story, plus the best historical summation reference to currency, etc., that I have found. It is not too dense of a book, although one cannot just skim the book. I have another 100 pages or so to go.

(4) The western world's financial system is broken beyond repair. Can kicking is the only option until collapse. Collapse is not necessarily going to be something akin to Mad Max, though, at least for Americans. I believe it will be more changes at the margins, like increased govt intrusion into personal privacy, more red tape so that the govt can collect data, more govt programs to "help" us which actually restrict freedoms, Pyrrhic choices in everything from taxes to unemployment to health care, things like that. FEMA camps will not be filled for now, but preparations for their use will continue. More fed govt employees, tantamount to an occupying force, will be spread out among the country, due to increased instability of the financial system, but the stated reason will be due to terror concerns from extremists.

(5) The Euro will not collapse, but will fluctuate in its ballet with the USD. I finally understand why this is the case. I wish to God I had known this earlier, as I would not have wasted so much time trying to learn to trade the Forex.

(6) I will continue to stack, probably on a dollar-cost average, although I find it irresistible to avoid buying a gold 50 peso coin when I settle a nice case or two. My favorite coin, hands down. If only I had not lost them all in that damn boating incident and that unfortunate car wreck. Oh well . . .

(7) Benjamin Fulford is fascinating to read. I cannot stop, it is like crack. Maybe he is loony, maybe not?

(8) Bix Weir is another enigma. His track record is good, his reasoning is good, but his reference that the Fed is part of the good guys? Really? I also cannot shake my strong sense of disconnect between Ayn Rand and her acolyte Alan Greenspan. How can Greenspan have been such a follower, yet have created the serial bubbles which eventually lead to the current fiat mess? Either Bix is right, or Greenspan completely reversed his philosophical mindset. It has happed before, like with Earl Warren, who was a staunch conservative, until he became Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court. So, I just do not know, but I find the disconnect fascinating.

(9) The war drums and past historical parallels are overpowering. War is likely to break out with actual hostilities this year. I pray for the young lives, and hope that we can avoid losing any more soldiers to the needless wars.

(10) Gold and silver are poised to rise to $2,200 and $60, respectively. I make this prediction based not on technical analysis, but on good ole fashioned fundamentals and instinct. On the speakeasy forum, I was pretty close on the prices at the close of 2011. I said $1,650 and $34.50. I figured that the smash down would take out the weak hands, allowing shorts to cover, in anticipation of the great printing that will take place before the election. I like to think I nailed it for the 2011 close, so the run up should take place on schedule in the next several months.

(11) The wall street insider (WSI) is another fascinating read. True or just another story? The Valerie Jarret / William Daley feud, was not on my radar at all, but it was mentioned in detail by the WSI. Now, the story is confirmed by other insiders, so what do you know? Maybe there is something about this absolution stuff from the WSI? Bix Weir had Daley as a JPM plant to smash silver, but now he is out, and Weir is saying silver is about to launch to the upside. Are both Weir and the WSI sensationalizing, or something else? Damn intriguing is all I know. I am certainly reading and paying attention, I will tell you that.

(12) Nice to see the WSJ picking up on the Bernanke white paper that I analyzed a week ago. Nice to see that Bill Clinton has correctly analyzed that housing is the key to the economic recovery here in the USA. Unfortunately, no main stream media outlet will tell the truth: the TBTF banks must be rendered insolvent, bad debt must be purged, and then and only then can the economy hope for a chance to recover. Since this will never happen, then all other solutions are just more of the same, so there is NO HOPE for a true economic recovery. Thus, stack and prepare is the solution, just like last year.

(13) I have resigned myself to understand that some people just do not want to learn, or to know the truth. I have decided that helping others after a collapse may be far more productive than trying to get others to prepare accordingly. I am not sure what is the best thing to do about it, but I am starting to formulate a plan on this basis.

(14) Internet anonymity is paramount, and face-to-face meet ups with fellow Turd followers is not likely to happen. I will not seek to network on a personal basis due to this limitation. I will, however, be willing at a moment's notice to help anyone here who asks, though. Just send a message and I will do what I can. I do believe that 2012 will present unbelievable challenges, and I hope and pray that I am up for them. Tebow is an inspiration, maybe a sign, as well. Just saying . . .

(15) There is no such thing as an improper comment here on this blog in my mind, so long as it is not a personal attack on someone. Post away with your thoughts, let's share and learn, with tolerance, and civility, please.

(16) I believe Romney wins, as I believe Obummer has lost confidence from TPTB and they want him out. Romney winning will result in can kicking as you and I have never seen. I will predict the rise of a new currency within one year, with the IMF in charge. Romney will try to break all consumer groups, unions, trial lawyers and mandate some form of govt tax at all levels of any economic activity, but it will be called a user fee. Romney will crack down on guns and ownership thereof. Look for a new transaction tax, national sales tax, forced transition of retirement funds into govt t bills or other scheme, which will only result in massive govt theft of private retirement funds.

(17) If I am wrong, and Obummer wins, then brace for more centralized govt planning and massive loss of freedoms on a scale never seen before. The financial collapse will be nothing but an orchestrated theft of private property to fund govt. Pensions will be stolen. Assets will be stolen. Private property will be stolen. Govt intrusion will be unrelenting and comprehensive. Capital flight and relocation will be staggering and breathtaking.

(18) If Ron Paul wins, I will send Bix Weir a thank you card, and I will never doubt him again, ever.

(19) Bart Chilton and the CFTC: Bart is a shill. Either he is part of them, and corrupt, or he knows the truth and is ineffective or just marking his time until the next govt appointment and then a retirement payday. He is worthless. The CFTC is corrupt and part of the problem. Maybe the CME/CFTC/MFing Global mess ends up with truth shining upon the sordid details, but I say no, it gets buried, and Corzine slinks away, back into the slime.

(20) Probably forgetting something, but oh well. Good luck everybody!

Jan 10, 2012 - 9:31pm

Paul so much wanted to say "

Paul so much wanted to say " Gold Standard " but played it safe with Sound Money. None of the other candidates should even be on the same Stage as Paul..

Romney's speech was Via telepromptor...scripted just like Obama

O'bamney vs Robama!

Huntsman equal's irrelevant media show....

Pitchforks and Torches

I Run Bartertown
Jan 10, 2012 - 9:42pm

Time is on our side

"As the legend goes, Odysseus chose to confront Scylla (a six-headed monster) and risk losing a handful of sailors, rather than to risk the loss of his entire ship to Charybdis (a whirlpool). It is my belief that most central banks view systemic risks, austerity and deflationary depression as that whirlpool. That would make expansive monetary policy and inflation Scylla in this analogy — the lesser of two evils. The Fed's move toward inflation targeting is a pretty telling indication of where our own central bank stands on this issue.

By the 8th century BC, when Homer is thought to have written the Odyssey, gold already had a long history of being used as money. And the striking of gold coins would commence just a century or so later. So when you think about how best to protect your wealth from stormy seas and sea-monsters, choose something that has withstood the test of time. Choose gold."


Peter Grant is USAGOLD's resident economist and a well-known analyst globally in the forex and precious metals markets.

Jan 10, 2012 - 9:54pm


Endeavour Silver Corporation...Suposedly took Sprotts advice and held back 800,000 ounces in the last quarter. I'm going to research this as Its a quote from ZH comments. None the less interesting.

Bsong TF
Jan 10, 2012 - 10:00pm

Quote from speech

Only sound money and personal Liberty will solve today's problems. Ron Paul...

Folks this one sentence from Rons speech tonight does in fact some it all up.

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:02pm

Just heard about a guy who lost his whole stash!

Horrible story!

His niece gave it all away at Halloween to kids who came to the door. She thought it was chocolate. When asked about it later he stated, "Well I sold the boat you know!"

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:06pm



As I sit and watch the CLOWNS (minus Ron Paul) give their silly speeches to their supporters, I am reading some of the most surprising information I have come across in a quite a while. The U.S. Banking system is so beyond repair, it's not even funny.

I am doing a few more charts-graphs for my article coming out next week and I assure you, this article will be an EYE OPENER. I can't believe I did not know this information before. I imagine some of the folks here probably know some of what I found out tonight, but I tell you.... I am completely Shocked. I really didn't know our banking system was this bad. (and I knew it was bad to begin with).

Anyhow, time to be in PHYSICAL GOLD and SILVER. Stop reading the chartists like MAUND and etc. Where Silver and Gold are going is well beyond anything thing these folks can comprehend on their little charts.

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:08pm

It's still early a strong

It's still early a strong showing in NH for RP may get others to rethink their vote, it is doubtful but who would have Thought that a mere 7 years after 9/11 a person with a name similar to that of a terrorist mastermind could get elected POTUS, stranger things have happened.

Good evening, Sleep well

WorldRussian warships leave Syrian port of Tartus


Caption: Coming for your checkbook and your guns commoner!

Be Prepared
Jan 10, 2012 - 10:14pm

Rombama won't go for guns....

He will go for the ammo and tax it into oblivion.....much easier and doesn't have to take on the 2nd amendment. Without ammo, weapons are useless. There are just so many ways the government can screw with us under the cover of seemingly benign reasons. Romney and Obama are cut from the exact same cloth....big government....nanny state......no freedom. The future is brigh.......ht..... really.

Be Prepared
Jan 10, 2012 - 10:18pm

@California Lawyer - Great Post!

Here....have a twinkie before Hostess goes out of business....

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:23pm

I agree Turd

I decided to sign up to volunteer for Ron Paul, especially after his speech. Even my husband was very impressed with it, which is a turn. I am amazed by this man, this true leader, this patriot, who is giving of his life, his energy, his money, etc. for his true love of us and our country. I heard an interview where he said he's not real sure he can imagine himself in the White House....he knows the odds....And, that's what makes it even more significant and giving of what he is truly doing for us as a nation. And not expecting anything in return. Yep, got my respect and vote!

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:34pm

its almost too much..

waiting on Turds bottom to back the truck up!!! Im going in heavyyyyyy

Oh and hello from newb to turdville, Thanks for the great site everyone!!!!!

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:34pm


EXK: we talked about EXK holding their savings in kind earlier today, here's the link


Jan 10, 2012 - 10:43pm

California Lawyer

Also being a California lawyer, albeit retired, I am most interested in your Assertion 16. You present "argument" but no "evidence". What is there in Romney's past record that would lead you to seriously assert any or all of your "predictions"? Assuming you can find something there, what evidence do you have that the Congress, probably both Houses being controlled by Republicans, would allow such dire predictions as you have made to be enacted into law?

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:47pm
Jan 10, 2012 - 10:48pm

The more I think about it...

it makes me realize how much of a patriot our Turd is too. He is doing the EXACT same thing for us, our families and our country.

Turd, man, thank you so much for all you do and give to help us! You have always had my respect and love, but just realize how much bigger of a gift you have been giving us. You get my vote!

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:50pm
Jan 10, 2012 - 10:50pm


Just as I was beginning to feel like one of those pioneers surrounded by charging Indians in an old western movie, here comes the calvary to our rescue:


Jan 10, 2012 - 10:51pm


Thank you CA Lawyer for posting. I read every word. Then I read- and thought -about every word.

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:53pm

Great Post

California Lawyer

Jan 10, 2012 - 10:54pm

"I heard an interview where he said he's not real sure he can

imagine himself in the White House...."

Actually the reporter asked him if he dreams at night about being in the Oval Office. Ron Paul answered, "Not really." which is a true answer. Now the rest of the field I believe dream at night about being in the Oval Office.

Ron probably dreams about what he can do for his country and it's people before it is too late, not the egotistical dream that the reporter was searching for.

Jan 10, 2012 - 11:11pm

@Turd, they don't support him

@Turd, they don't support him because they aren't rational or thinking. You answered your own question. Tongue-in-cheek I know, but still true.

Jan 10, 2012 - 11:22pm

Op Sec

Former UPS worker in MO mined the UPS database for targets for burglary & home invasions

be careful


Jan 10, 2012 - 11:37pm

Thanks Johnboatcat

for the actual reference! yes

Economical Disaster
Jan 10, 2012 - 11:42pm

1. He supports torture:

1. He supports torture: Romney is an outspoken supporter of “enhanced interrogation techniques,” or as the layman calls it, torture.

2. He wants to enlarge Gitmo: Romney stated at a 2008 Republican primary debate that he would double the size of the prison at Guantanamo Bay if elected president. Would that be before or after he dissolves the Supreme Court, which has ruled that the indefinite detentions of terror suspects at Gitmo was unconstitutional?

3. He supports teen torture camps: This shouldn’t come as a surprise if you read the two items above. Romney has been linked to WWASPS camps for troubled teens, which has had several lawsuits filed against it alleging that teens were “locked in outdoor dog cages, exercised to exhaustion, deprived of food and sleep, exposed to extreme temperatures without adequate clothing or water, severely beaten, emotionally brutalized, and sexually abused and humiliated. Some were even made to eat their own vomit.”

4. He dodged the draft: Mitt Romney spent the height of the Vietnam War working as a Mormon missionary in France, thanks to a draft deferment his Mormon handlers gave him as “a minister of religion.”

5. Gun control flip-flopper: Romney recently changed his opinions on gun control when he realized he would need to suck up to gun owners if he wanted the Republican vote. When endorsing the Brady Bill in 1994, Romney declared it was “not going to make me a hero of the NRA.” In August 2006, he joined the NRA.

6. He’s a “life-long” hunter: By which I mean a liar. An NRA cap-wearing Romney told New Hampshire voters that he had been a hunter for “pretty much all” in April 2007. The truth soon came out that Romney had only gone hunting twice in his 60 years. If you’re going to suck up to gun owners, at least spare them the BS.

7. He tricked voters with a fake pro-life stance: Romney ran for US Senate in 1994 pledging to keep abortion ”safe and legal in this country.” As a 2002 candidate for governor, Romney said he would not change the state’s abortion laws. He is now running on a pro-life platform. As his top political strategist said in 2005, ”He’s been a pro-life Mormon faking it as a pro-choice friendly.”

8. He uses goons to intimidate his opponents: The security staff of the Romney campaign is well known for pushing around people they don’t want near their campaign events. They’ve also been placed under investigation for impersonating police officers to make threats illegally stop cars belonging to activists working on behalf of other candidates.

9. His campaign spreads lies about his opponents: The Romney campaign has been implicated in a dirty behind-the-scenes whisper campaign aimed at spreading a lie about John McCain’s views on abortion. If that fails, maybe they’ll claim he fathered black children?

10. He opposes stem cell research: While governor of Massachusetts, Romney tried to veto a bill that would have promoted stem cell research in the state. Luckily, state legislators were not living in the dark ages, and they overturned his anti-science veto.

11. He abuses animals: While moving driving his family from Ontario to Boston in 1983, Romney strapped the family dog to the top of their car for the entire drive. WTF?

12. He’s Mormon: Even if you like Mormons, you have to admit that his religion, which has a very negative image, will make Romney unelectable.


dos pesos
Jan 10, 2012 - 11:57pm

Herd starts to get it?

Guys, I don't buy shortage of silver/gold rumors until Apmex, Gainsville and Provident are cleaned up out of investment grade coins/bars. Burger/Budweiser herd must wake up for it to happen. Tonight I was IMPRESSED. First time in my life I saw that someone (who is not coin dealer or myself for that matter) was handling silver coins. Owner of the local Persian store has brought a roll of ASEs and was showing them to his employees who looked with awe and handled with surprise the real money. I hope that more and more people get it and we, early adopters, will get rewarded for years of patience and faith.


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