A Study of Open Interest

Mon, Jan 9, 2012 - 9:52pm

I'm in my office tonight. I have several things to discuss with you but this also gives me the opportunity to keep tabs on the LSU/Alabama game as Mrs F and the LTs have monopolized the other monitors in the Ferguson household. As I type, the game is about to kickoff. I'll say: LSU 14 Bama 13.

First of all, there is all kinds of noise out there about a supposed drop in gold lease rates again. As of yet, I don't see it. The easiest way to track lease rates on a daily basis is through kitco. Here is a link:


Please keep in mind that I was one of - -if not the -- first person to point out the correlation of rates and future price and then warn of impending doom back in December. I am watching these rates every day for you and as soon as I see something peculiar, I will, of course, point it out. For now, there is nothing unusual though the charts have not yet updated for today so we'll just have to see what tomorrow brings.

Next, we need to spend a little time discussing the falling OI numbers, at least in gold. After the post-BLSBS raid in gold on Friday, the total OI contracted to just 417,864 contracts. For scale, this is lower than where the OI was during the last week of December, after gold had been run all the way down to $1535. For further scale, this latest OI figure is a full 10% lower than where it was when ole Harvey wrote this back on September 29:


What the heck does all this mean? Beats the shit out of me! But seriously...I want you to go back now and read this:


I wrote that on 12/11/11. That night, the total gold OI on the Comex stood at 424,055 and price was near $1665. So, gold has fallen about $50 and OI has contracted a little more than 6,000 contracts. Looks like pretty normal action to me so it appears...at least so far...that my hopes for a quick Comex death are unfounded. What does this mean? Well, even though MFing Global has proven to me and you and everyone else with a brain that the current system is designed to suppress price and screw everyone that is not associated with a bullion bank, the current system will probably continue for a while longer. Once the technical picture improves and/or overt QE begins anew, brainless algo money will likely come rushing back into the paper metal market and up she'll go. Further proof of the current staying power of the Comex/LBMA system can be found in the silver OI. On 12/11/11, paper silver was priced at about $31 and total OI was a paltry 96,348. Tonight, silver is around $28.75 yet the OI stands at 106,526. Yes, it certainly appears that the Comex isn't going anywhere for a while.

So, our next task is to figure out when the paper market for metal will bottom and turn higher. I am completely convinced that the metals have been maliciously attacked for the single purpose of allowing the banks to extricate themselves from much of their perennial short positions.

  • Silver was a runaway train back in April and the Comex was near collapse. Frightened, the criminal C/C/C orchestrated a $6 takedown on the night of Sunday, April 30 and followed it up with four margin calls in 8 days.
  • Gold was a runaway train back in August and the banks were reeling. Gold was attacked beginning in the wee hours of the post-Labor Day trade of September 6. Five minutes prior to the announcement that the SNB would devalue their currency by 10% by pegging it to the euro, gold was smashed for $50. That began the downturn that has included two margin hikes by the criminal C/C/C. The downturn continues to this moment.
  • After recovering to $44 by Labor Day, silver was actively pushed lower in conjunction with gold and has now fallen nearly 40% from its April highs.

At the price peak in April, the total silver commercial short position was nearly 90,000 contracts while the commercial long position was around 35,000. As of the latest CoT report, the commercial short position is down to 57,000 (a drop of 35%) while to commercial long position is up to 41,000 ( a gain of almost 20%).

At the price peak in early August, before the U.S. downgrade by S&P, the total gold commercial short position was 443,000 contracts versus a commercial long position of 155,000. As of last week, the commercial short position had shrunk to 326,000 contracts (a drop of nearly 20%) while the commercial long position is up to 164,000 ( a gain of 6%).

Again, I ask: What the heck does all this mean? This time I think I do know.

2011 was a very, very scary year for the cartel of bullion banks, lovingly referred to here as The Evil Empire. Faced with collapse and virtually unlimited losses, the banks took the only action they know. Namely, they criminally and selfishly rigged massive declines in gold and silver for the sole purpose of exiting as many of their short positions as possible. And it's worked! In April, the ratio of short:long silver contracts was almost 3:1. Now it's almost at parity. Similarly, the ratio of short:long gold contracts in August was nearly 3:1. It is now back to a much more manageable 2:1 and still falling.

Both metals are about to turn higher and are poised for extremely exciting years. Silver, in particular, is almost ready to blast off to heretofore unseen levels. Notice, though, that I used the terms "about" and "almost". We're not there yet and I don't think the banks are quite ready to let things roll. Heck, the commercial short position in silver actually rose last week by 1,800 contracts, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

And look at these charts. First, here's silver. I feel that it has been purposefully held below $30 because the EE isn't net neutral or long yet. By the looks of the chart, it appears that silver may be about to drop a bit lower later this week. Whether or not it does is of little consequence. I'm confident that paper and physical silver are going to explode price this year. Whether or not they blast higher from a low of $26 or $28 matters little.


Gold also looks like it wants to explore a little more downside in the days ahead. The Cartel capped it last week at $1630 because they aren't yet ready to let it run, either. Like silver, a decline from here and a retest of the late December lows is possible but of little, long-term meaning. Gold will bottom soon and, when it's finally allowed to retake $1630, you'll know the bottom is in. From there, it will break through the down-sloping trendline from the August highs (currently near $1700) and from there it will be off to the races.


So, in conclusion:

  • The Comex does not appear to be in imminent danger of collapse and/or insignificance.
  • Movements in OI and net positions tell us that The Cartel is planning for breakouts in the prices of both paper and physical metal.

Lastly, just a copy&paste of a comment I posted earlier today regarding TFMR Rule#1 and the future direction and management of the site. Please take a moment to read it:

"Everyone needs to keep mind Rule #1 of Turdland:

Treat others the way you want to be treated.

In building this site, I tried everything possible to construct an atmosphere of respect and civility. Apparently believing that this site is just like every other on the internet, some folks come here and blast away at their fellow turdites, without regard for responsibility and decorum. Of course, we all disagree from time to time but that does not give anyone license to persecute and belittle those with differing opinions. We are here to help each other and all newcomers prepare for the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. With a potentially apocalyptic economic and financial crisis now immediately on the horizon, why anyone would get upset over subjects such as politics or the Q1 direction of the PMs is beyond my comprehension. Please always try to keep the bigger picture in mind.

Soon, the format of the site will be changing a bit. Simply stated, the site is going to be divided into a "End of The Great Keynesian Experiment" side (basically all of the current site structure) and a "Daily Gold and Silver Technical Analysis" side (my TA, updated daily and as warranted). This structure will accomplish a number of things, chief among them:

  • Provide additional revenue to expand and improve site content and reach.
  • Allow me to devote more time and manpower to the maintenance and growth of the site.
  • Streamline the experience by separating those looking for PM info only from those of us looking for a broader conversation of economics, politics, preparation, etc.

I hope to have these changes in place by 2/1/12. In the meantime, the entire world seems on edge these days. Let's try to make this place a sanctuary of civility and cooperation in these troubled times."

OK, that's all for tonight. I look up to se that now it's almost halftime and Bama leads 6-0. My pick isn't looking too hot. Maybe I should just stick to the PMs.


11:00 am EST UPDATE:

Very, very nice action today and a great reversal of the downtrends shown on the charts in the main post above. This is great. However, keep in mind that this is Tuesday and we know that The Cartel likes to cover shorts on Tuesdays to "paint" the CoT. We'll need to look at the OI numbers for today, when they are released tomorrow, to decipher whether this is "organic" buying or primarily short-covering. In the end, however, from where the buying is coming does not matter as much as having the charts break out and, for that to happen, the metals need to rise a bit farther from here.

Remember, too, that the days following big UP days are typically down as The Cartel attempts to re-assert control. Tomorrow is also a Wednesday which, again, is a day when they usually add back on some of the same shorts they covered on Tuesday.

What I'm saying is this: Be glad for today's action but don't get carried away yet. We'll likely give some of these gains back tonight and tomorrow. From there, if we can get gold to close above 1650 and silver to close above 30.50, we can get very bullish. Until then, I'm sitting tight and watching from the sidelines.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 9, 2012 - 10:12pm

Turd again

turd again?

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:13pm

Breaking News from Turdville

Good evening Turd and fellow Turdites! Turd - Thanks for the insight - I personally don't expect the EE to roll over for a while yet, either - it's like trying to fall a massive monster from space, it will not fall easily, it just keeps getting up and moving forward. I will just continue acquiring the real McCoy. Come to think of it, as you elude to, if the EE manages to reposition to the long side and the metals move where they should be, the EE will benefit/profit greatly. (Although all that paper re-hypothication has me scratching my head - that chicken has to roost sometime.) Here is another nonsensical cartoon video from Turdville. Our ace reporter drops by the offices of JP Morgan to interview the Head of Global Commodities Trading! Ya - it's all pure silliness … Enjoy. https://youtu.be/vldt3Dhgbto .

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:18pm


BS = new hampshire "election"

Is there really any doubt what is going to transpire tomorrow night in New Hampshire?

There shouldn't be.

I watched the ABC/CNN "debate" and noted that George Stephanopoulous focused the first 20 minutes on Romney. Not even one image of Ron Paul for 20 minutes at least, and that was the point where I ignored the "presentation".

People need to remember that George was part of Bill Clinton's Admin.

And, now, the BCS - here's another no brainer of a game. It's LSU with goose egg. Who the heck wanted to see this game played again? SEC officials that's who. Meanwhile OSU plays Stanford and wins. OSU should end the year number one if LSU goes down tonight. But, I doubt that fairness is a part of this equation either.

And, then there's the Euro/USD ratio. Over lay that chart my friends.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 9, 2012 - 10:20pm

There are Two Kinds of Turdites

Those who are FIRST . . .

. . .and the foolish amongst us who will be NEXT to lose their uninsured precious metals while sailing on America’s waterways.

Torgerson’s - Maritime Underwriters since 2011

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:32pm

Nice post there TF,

much obliged.

Be Prepared
Jan 9, 2012 - 10:33pm

Reflections of Turdville

In the last thread, Turd reminded us all to rekindle our ideals and stay focused on the task of building a resourceful and informative community here in Turdville. I was with Turd over at the blogspot (mainly as a lurker) and he became inspired by the interactivity and the participation of the members enough to take a leap of faith... and build a more permanent gathering hub for the growing tribe.

I, for one, am thankful for all the different perspectives and ideas which are brought up each and every day. Nothing is easy...Nothing. Communities grow in spurts and each turn has brought and will bring challenges to us. Remember, though, the greatest challenge is out there and it's all around us...the EE... the TPTB. It's not in here. Our Freedoms, Our Constitution and Our Republic is at stake here...... everything is on the line. It is time to be laser focused on how best to absorb as much as we can while we can here in Turdville. This place, due to SOPA or other draconian measures, may not always be at the ready so what you do with your time in the here and now matters. We are the only ones awake in a sea of sleepers!

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:45pm

Funny Turd, I just mentioned

Funny Turd,

I just mentioned it to a fellow Turdite how much we are on edge as well. It's going to be tough year, and we'll all get through it better if we stick together than not. So....get into a zen like trance if necessary, but co-operative efforts have to remain central on the blog and all facets of our lives as well. 

Not to get catastrophic, but I have read too many times from people I respect that we can't yet envision our future....so this is not just a platitude. 

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:46pm

Thanks for Letting Me Get My Work Done, Turd

Turd, I just came across this commercial, after having recently discovered the Tim and Eric Awesome Show Great Job!

I had to send it.



Hold over
Jan 9, 2012 - 10:47pm


Drum rollllllllllll,

Im going to go out on a limb here and say Mitt Romney wins NH. Ill put 4 ounces of silver on it. 

Not because hes good, He rambles on like a high school girl, and never says anything of substance. 

Im just going to come out and say it . Its rigged . Way to much money on the line .

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:48pm
Jan 9, 2012 - 10:50pm

Yeah, Mitt Romney has been

Yeah, Mitt Romney has been their boy all along. Just think his summer place along the shores of Lake Huron in Canada is a reachable distance for me. Maybe I should go congratulate him in person.

Jan 9, 2012 - 10:56pm
Buzz Wired
Jan 9, 2012 - 11:03pm

Tracking Paper & Physical Silver Price Divergence

Spot Silver price is $29.05/oz right now, 10:50PM Eastern.

SLV is at $28.13/oz (as of market close at 4PM Eastern)

PSLV premium is now up to 34.22% for a per oz price of $38.84 (as of market close at 4PM Eastern).

Physical price for ASEs at Gainsvillecoins.com is $32.20/oz, which is a 10.8% premium, this is starting to grow as well, from 8% last Friday.

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:13pm

My two cents worth

Let's see, if was the one the the bad guyz and I wanted to suppress the price of silver would I paint a chart showing a double bottom? A double bottom by definition is a bullish reversal chart pattern that is typically associated with line and bar charts. The pattern forms with two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, a moderate peak in-between and a resistance breakout. Right now thats the pattern we have in play so far only lacking the resistance breakout. If I was a bad guy I would negate this by a lower low in silver say $25 near term, maybe lower. This is all good for the stackers on board!

Dr Durden
Jan 9, 2012 - 11:17pm

post moved

This post has been moved by an arbitrary and capricious Moderator, for defeating its own stated purpose of 'fostering cooperation', and instead insulting and belittling the community as a whole, not to mention our host. For those interested in researching the original text, you may do so here.

Dr Durden, please consider this to be your first and only notice.

Mod. Jefferson

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:18pm

A speech for all time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WibmcsEGLKo I'm sorry but I don't want to be an Emperor, that's not my business. I don't want to rule or conquer anyone. I should like to help everyone if possible, Jew, gentile, black man, white. We all want to help one another, human beings are like that. We all want to live by each other's happiness, not by each other's misery. We don't want to hate and despise one another. In this world there is room for everyone and the earth is rich and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful. But we have lost the way. Greed has poisoned men's souls, has barricaded the world with hate; has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed but we have shut ourselves in: machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical, our cleverness hard and unkind. We think too much and feel too little: More than machinery we need humanity; More than cleverness we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities, life will be violent and all will be lost. The aeroplane and the radio have brought us closer together. The very nature of these inventions cries out for the goodness in men, cries out for universal brotherhood for the unity of us all. Even now my voice is reaching millions throughout the world, millions of despairing men, women and little children, victims of a system that makes men torture and imprison innocent people. To those who can hear me I say "Do not despair". The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed, the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress: the hate of men will pass and dictators die and the power they took from the people, will return to the people and so long as men die [now] liberty will never perish. . . Soldiers: don't give yourselves to brutes, men who despise you and enslave you, who regiment your lives, tell you what to do, what to think and what to feel, who drill you, diet you, treat you as cattle, as cannon fodder. Don't give yourselves to these unnatural men, machine men, with machine minds and machine hearts. You are not machines. You are not cattle. You are men. You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate, only the unloved hate. Only the unloved and the unnatural. Soldiers: don't fight for slavery, fight for liberty. In the seventeenth chapter of Saint Luke it is written: "The kingdom of God is within man" Not one man, nor a group of men, but in all men; in you, the people. You the people have the power, the power to create machines, the power to create happiness. You the people have the power to make life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure. Then in the name of democracy let's use that power, let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give you the future and old age and security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power, but they lie. They do not fulfil their promise, they never will. Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people. Now let us fight to fulfil that promise. Let us fight to free the world, to do away with national barriers, do away with greed, with hate and intolerance. Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men's happiness. Soldiers! In the name of democracy, let us all unite! . . . Look up! Look up! The clouds are lifting, the sun is breaking through. We are coming out of the darkness into the light. We are coming into a new world. A kind new world where men will rise above their hate and brutality. The soul of man has been given wings, and at last he is beginning to fly. He is flying into the rainbow, into the light of hope, into the future, that glorious future that belongs to you, to me and to all of us. Look up. Look up.

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:21pm

Paul was criticizing

Paul was criticizing so-called "chickenhawks," or politicians who are hawkish about going to war but personally shirked the opportunity to serve in the U.S. military.

"I think people who don't serve when they could and they get three or four or even five deferments have no right to send our kids off to war," said Paul in a clear reference to Gingrich.

Gingrich responded: "I was married with a child."

To which Paul famously shot back: "When I was drafted, I was married and had two kids, and I went."

Paul finished his sentence with pursed lips and a steely gaze. The crowd was silent for a moment. Then, it broke out in applause.

( A young Ron Paul in uniform )

And a nice poster for your man town...

8 trillion. in Gold vs. 750 trillion. in derivatives


Jan 9, 2012 - 11:23pm



This is a term you will see me repeat over and over:

"Technical Analysis presently charts the amount of Manipulation and Mass Psychology in an Asset".....SRSrocco

If we go to Ned Schmidt's website this is what we see in BRIGHT COLOR:

And then yesterday, Clive Maund comes out with this:

For some reason these two analysts fail to comprehend that 350/1 PAPER to PHYSICAL trading on the futures and derivatives markets. If we look at today's trading this is what we get:


GOLD = 164,129 contracts X 100 oz = 16,412,900 oz traded

SILVER = 33,321 X 5,000 oz = 166,605,000 oz traded

WTI CRUDE = 657,004 X 1,000 barrels = 657,000,000 barrels traded


GOLD = 16,412,900 / 222,000 = 75 times daily world mine production

SILVER = 166,505,000 / 2,005,000 = 81 times daily world mine production

WTI CRUDE = 657,000,000 / 88,000,000 = 7.5 times daily world production

Here we can see that oil is traded only 7.5 paper contracts to actual daily production. Whereas gold and silver are 75 and 81 to 1 respectively paper to physical. This only includes future contracts and not options and derivatives. Isn't that just amazing. The most vital commodity...OIL trades at only 7.5 times physical but gold and silver are above 75 to 1.


Are they that stupid or just part of the misinformation racket? Their analysis does not bother me as I know where gold and silver are going, but it bugs the living hell at of me because a good portion of precious metals investors get SUCKED into believing this king of paper nonsense.


Here we can see that Rhodium was clobbered another $75 clams today. Here is Ned's Rhodium chart from his article back in NOV 2010:

Ned puts Rhodium as a FAIR VALUE of $6,000, but sees silver at a FAIR VALUE of $16. At close of today's trading this is how Ned's subscribers did if they invested in his advice in NOV 2010:

RHODIUM = $2,293 (nov 2010) - $1,275 (today) = -$1,018 or -44%

SILVER = $26.54 (nov 2011) - $29.00 (today) = +$2.46 or +9.3%


Here is CLIVE MAUND in FEB 20, 2011 when silver was starting on its way to $50:

Despite the longer-term bullish implications of the breakout to new highs, silver is thought to be very close to topping out now on a short to medium-term basis, which has more to do with what we can see developing on the gold charts and the charts of PM stock indices and individual silver stocks, than it has to do with the silver chart, although we can see that silver on Friday hit a trendline target which could mark the top of a broadening pattern that silver could now react back across.

If silver is now destined to react back with gold and PM stocks, how far might it drop? A reasonable objective for a reaction would be the January low from which this advance started, although bearing in mind the obvious strength displayed in recent weeks, it may not drop back further than the support level in the $28 area.


Silver did not correct at all unless you call correcting from $36 down to $34 in March 2011.

Clive does not realize that his MANIPULATED CHARTS are discouraging investors into buying gold and silver. This is why I am inspired to write my articles.

My next article "THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER" is my attempt to try and level the playing field.

Rich MyGold
Jan 9, 2012 - 11:27pm

Nice Silver Bullion Refining and Casting HD video

Hey Turd,

Just sharing a video we did while casting our 1 kg bars:




Buy Silver in NZ with MyGold.

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:29pm

@ SRSrocco

thanks for your posts, they are appreciated; the deflationists will continue to make those calls until they are right you know, even if it takes 20 years

well nice to see you Dr. Durden :)

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:43pm

LSU = beleaguered precious metals investors

Did anyone else watch Alabama pummel LSU and think, hey, Alabama is the evil empire, with all the power and we as precious metals investors are LSU, just around so the big boys have someone to whip up on?

Sure, we win some -- LSU did beat Alabama during the regular season. But we don't win the big one. At least not yet.

zman SRSrocco
Jan 9, 2012 - 11:47pm

I had the Maund service

I had the Maund service sometime ago, it was a joke, bullish and then bearish then bullish again. This man just makes it up as he goes along, waiting to buy on the crash. If his charts were so smart, he would not be making charts for a living!!! And I would still have his service and have more money as well.

Ned Schmidt is also a joke, his gold to rhodium charts are all he uses to sell his trade. I wonder if anyone ever reads him anymore?

Jan 9, 2012 - 11:58pm

Roll Tide


vamoose1 SRSrocco
Jan 9, 2012 - 11:59pm


Awesome, you thoroughly demolished both of them. case closed.

Ferd Torgerson
Jan 10, 2012 - 12:00am

@ firstsilver

Until that touchdown, I was pretty convinced that the cartel was suppressing scoring in the BCS game.

Messr. Merde:  Laissez les Tide rouler!!

Jan 10, 2012 - 12:03am



Jan 10, 2012 - 12:04am


First I really want to thank you for your work, and for this ace site. So thank you. And secondly, your analysis above is flat out brilliant. 

Jan 10, 2012 - 12:06am

Maund / Schmidt

@SRSrocco - Great insight and analysis - thank-you.

Bay of Pigs
Jan 10, 2012 - 12:09am


"a guy in a big funny hat and his Sharpie talking to a bunch of blind clowns"

I doubt there are many here that share that kind of attitude towards Turd and their fellow posters. What bullshit that is.

Jan 10, 2012 - 12:17am

Just emailed this to all the CFTC addresses.

to:  PosLimits[at]cftc[dot]gov,

To all of you supposed "regulators" who I am currently employing through my tax dollars,

I am beyond upset with your administration's inability to address and stop the naked leveraged short selling of silver. I would like to thank Bart Chilton for insinuating the truth of the situation. But to the rest of you-- what cometh of your investigation (or lack there of)? I am disgusted with your organizations seeming subservience to these commercial banking interests. Don't you dare forget that you are all employees of myself and the rest of the American public. I demand that you quit dilly-dallying and get back to work. How much easier could it be for you? Does the whole entire investigation need to be handed to you on a silver platter? Ha! If you continue to kick the can down the road and look the other way, you are setting yourselves up for an embarrassment of epic proportions. Don't you people remember your purpose? Let me spell it out for you: serving and protecting the interests of the American public. I am writing this email to you all, so as to remind you that the victims of the silver manipulation are not faceless. We are people, American citizens... perhaps the only true patriots-- who wish to see a return to sound money. Either way, your lack of prosecution of the large commercial shorts (JPMorgan and HSBC) is akin to being complicit in this scheme of driving the metals lower. Do you not understand what is going to happen? Let me spell it out for you. Every nuclear event in the precious metals markets simply results in physical metal transferring from Western to Eastern vaults. Is this what you want? What will we do when the Chinese have it all and all we have left is our funny money? The implications are terrifying. Again, as a citizen, a tax payer, and therefor YOUR EMPLOYER, I demand that you respond to this email in kind. Recognize that silver investors have been bled out numerous times the past year, and we demand justice. If you guys seek to ignore or poo-poo this email like your drone did to Andrew Macguire when he spelled it all out for you, I will be doing all in my power to see that you people are removed from your positions as regulators, as it is obvious that you are all POWERLESS to protect the public from these "nefarious market forces". I look forward to hearing your response. -------------------------------------- Compare Silver Prices | Compare Gold Prices
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