Sunday Stuff

Sun, Jan 8, 2012 - 5:03pm

As you prepare for what promises to be an eventful week, here are a few things to ponder.

First up, the metals are, quite clearly, still being capped and contained by The Cartel. Though I am still of the mindset that there is an active movement by JPM et al to exit their perennial silver short position, that doesn't mean silver can't go down further before it rockets higher. This week's CoT data actually showed an increase in the commercial short position as well as an increase in the spec longs. This can sometimes be a precursor to a raid so be on the lookout. Additionally, having successfully kept silver below $30 last week, the EE has made the chart look a little precarious. Watch the $28.50 level very closely early this week.

Now take a look at this 5-minute chart of gold and try not to barf. The Cartel has spent considerable energy keeping gold below 1625-30 or, stated differently, below its 200-day moving average. Well, look what happened back on Friday. About an hour after the BLSBS report was released, gold surged almost $5 in one, five-minute period to 1632. What happened next just proves again that The Cartel intervenes nearly every day in an attempt to paint the tape and manipulate the price.

And now, with short-term momentum fading, gold risks a drop back into the 15**s. Without some type of news event to propel it through 1630, it looks to fade here and roll over, possibly all the way back toward 1585, maybe even as low as 1565. If attempting to trade, be cautious. On the bright side, the gold CoT was much more encouraging than silver. The specs and banks added longs while the banks also covered some shorts.

Next up, a whole slew of charts for you to consider. I started printing these because I was looking to compare the relative performance of silver and copper since the 10/1/11 lows. I found it interesting that, in the time since, DrC is up 14% and silver is down about 4%. (Hmmm. Move along please. Nothing to see here.) At any rate, this got me wondering how everything else has fared in the time since the 10/1/11 lows. Well, here you go:

I find it interesting how the charts of crude, copper, stocks, gold and silver all resemble the euro chart until 10/1/11. Then, after that date, crude, copper and stocks de-couple and move higher while the metals have continued flat to lower. Are the metals now perceived simply as an anti-dollar currency and, thus, moving lower because the dollar is rallying? there something more nefarious at work here?

Here are three links that detail the continuing deterioration of the global, geo-political scene:

Our new friend, Jim Quinn, just released today his forecast for 2012. Definitely worth the read:

Lastly, I don't recall where I found this link last week but I thought I'd include it here. It's the original GATA link from March of 2010 that shows the string of emails Andy Maguire sent to the CFTC trying to alert and prove to them that silver was being actively manipulated. Note the pathetic, ambivalent responses from Eliud Ramirez, who was the Senior Investigator of the CFTC Enforcement Division at the time. One would think that the "senior investigator" would have taken a little greater interest in the information that Andy passed along. Guess again...

Well, that's all for now. As I close, I see that the EUR has opened to the downside. Let's see if this weakness affects the PM opening, as well, in an hour or so.

More Monday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 8, 2012 - 5:09pm

Holy Lease Rates!!!!


















































Jan 8, 2012 - 5:10pm

Thanks, TF!

You are a chart wizard, amigo

Jan 8, 2012 - 5:12pm

Strange Days

Will we survive??

Bay of Pigs
Jan 8, 2012 - 5:20pm


Much like Harry Markopolis giving the SEC the Madoff ponzi on a platter, Andrew Maguire did the same thing for the CFTC on silver. He told them when and how JPM would drive privc down on the COMEX and it turned out exactly as he had predicted.

This is all factual and the evidence is bulletproof. There is no shred of "conspiracy theory" on any of this stuff. I might add that Commissioner Bart Chilton has acknowledged all of this to be true as well. He fingered JPM a long time ago as the institution manipulating and suppressing silver prices.

If you don't believe it, well then, you have other issues to deal with.

Jan 8, 2012 - 5:26pm

Yep, Turd, Quinn's article def

worth the read. wowza. Thanks for pointing us in that direction.

Jan 8, 2012 - 5:27pm


Hi, comrade. Was wondering what your definition of "survive" is??

Jan 8, 2012 - 5:32pm

What is wrong with the lease rates?

What is wrong with the lease rates? The 1 year lease rate is down over 1 basis point... This is HUGE! Usually they lower the shorter term lease rates to suppress metal prices... What do you think of this new strategy? Will we see new bottoms this week?

I Run Bartertown
Jan 8, 2012 - 5:35pm

From Jim Quinn

Man, even our Fourth Turning is sucky and boring compared to previous generations' Fourth Turnings. Who has been devaluing Fourth Turnings?!? Ben?

"We have now entered the fifth year of this Fourth Turning Crisis. George Washington and his troops were barely holding on at Valley Forge during the fifth year of the American Revolution Fourth Turning. By year five of the Civil War Fourth Turning 700,000 Americans were dead, the South left in ruins, a President assassinated and a military victory attained that felt like defeat. By the fifth year of the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, FDR’s New Deal was in place and Adolf Hitler had been democratically elected and was formulating big plans for his Third Reich."

Jan 8, 2012 - 5:42pm

(new video) Kicking the debt can

It would seem I have lost my mind at the end :)

Brotha Bob
Jan 8, 2012 - 5:47pm

I am disgusted.

I am just disgusted. I am disgusted with the current administration, that treats the Constitution as bird cage liner. Disgusted in a Congress to weak to defend the American poeples right. Disgusted markets are manipulated for the benefit of the few, and detriment of the many. All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope. Winston Churchill

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 15 min 28 sec ago
by sierra skier, 8 hours 33 min ago
by NW VIEW, 8 hours 36 min ago
by Trail Trekker, 9 hours 55 min ago