Sunday Stuff

Sun, Jan 8, 2012 - 5:03pm

As you prepare for what promises to be an eventful week, here are a few things to ponder.

First up, the metals are, quite clearly, still being capped and contained by The Cartel. Though I am still of the mindset that there is an active movement by JPM et al to exit their perennial silver short position, that doesn't mean silver can't go down further before it rockets higher. This week's CoT data actually showed an increase in the commercial short position as well as an increase in the spec longs. This can sometimes be a precursor to a raid so be on the lookout. Additionally, having successfully kept silver below $30 last week, the EE has made the chart look a little precarious. Watch the $28.50 level very closely early this week.


Now take a look at this 5-minute chart of gold and try not to barf. The Cartel has spent considerable energy keeping gold below 1625-30 or, stated differently, below its 200-day moving average. Well, look what happened back on Friday. About an hour after the BLSBS report was released, gold surged almost $5 in one, five-minute period to 1632. What happened next just proves again that The Cartel intervenes nearly every day in an attempt to paint the tape and manipulate the price.


And now, with short-term momentum fading, gold risks a drop back into the 15**s. Without some type of news event to propel it through 1630, it looks to fade here and roll over, possibly all the way back toward 1585, maybe even as low as 1565. If attempting to trade, be cautious. On the bright side, the gold CoT was much more encouraging than silver. The specs and banks added longs while the banks also covered some shorts.


Next up, a whole slew of charts for you to consider. I started printing these because I was looking to compare the relative performance of silver and copper since the 10/1/11 lows. I found it interesting that, in the time since, DrC is up 14% and silver is down about 4%. (Hmmm. Move along please. Nothing to see here.) At any rate, this got me wondering how everything else has fared in the time since the 10/1/11 lows. Well, here you go:





I find it interesting how the charts of crude, copper, stocks, gold and silver all resemble the euro chart until 10/1/11. Then, after that date, crude, copper and stocks de-couple and move higher while the metals have continued flat to lower. Are the metals now perceived simply as an anti-dollar currency and, thus, moving lower because the dollar is rallying? there something more nefarious at work here?

Here are three links that detail the continuing deterioration of the global, geo-political scene:

Our new friend, Jim Quinn, just released today his forecast for 2012. Definitely worth the read:

Lastly, I don't recall where I found this link last week but I thought I'd include it here. It's the original GATA link from March of 2010 that shows the string of emails Andy Maguire sent to the CFTC trying to alert and prove to them that silver was being actively manipulated. Note the pathetic, ambivalent responses from Eliud Ramirez, who was the Senior Investigator of the CFTC Enforcement Division at the time. One would think that the "senior investigator" would have taken a little greater interest in the information that Andy passed along. Guess again...

Well, that's all for now. As I close, I see that the EUR has opened to the downside. Let's see if this weakness affects the PM opening, as well, in an hour or so.

More Monday. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


ThoughtCriminal · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:09pm

Holy Lease Rates!!!!

Gold Lease Rates Charts
Silver Lease Rates Charts
Platinum Lease Rates Charts
Palladium Lease Rates Charts


















































Dolomite · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:10pm

Thanks, TF!

You are a chart wizard, amigosmiley

dgstage · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:12pm

Strange Days

Will we survive??

Bay of Pigs · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:20pm


Much like Harry Markopolis giving the SEC the Madoff ponzi on a platter, Andrew Maguire did the same thing for the CFTC on silver. He told them when and how JPM would drive privc down on the COMEX and it turned out exactly as he had predicted.

This is all factual and the evidence is bulletproof. There is no shred of "conspiracy theory" on any of this stuff. I might add that Commissioner Bart Chilton has acknowledged all of this to be true as well. He fingered JPM a long time ago as the institution manipulating and suppressing silver prices.

If you don't believe it, well then, you have other issues to deal with. 

LaMachinna · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:26pm

Yep, Turd, Quinn's article def

worth the read. wowza. Thanks for pointing us in that direction.

LaMachinna · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:27pm


Hi, comrade. Was wondering what your definition of "survive" is??

balz · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:32pm

What is wrong with the lease rates?

What is wrong with the lease rates? The 1 year lease rate is down over 1 basis point... This is HUGE! Usually they lower the shorter term lease rates to suppress metal prices... What do you think of this new strategy? Will we see new bottoms this week?

I Run Bartertown · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:35pm

From Jim Quinn

Man, even our Fourth Turning is sucky and boring compared to previous generations' Fourth Turnings. Who has been devaluing Fourth Turnings?!? Ben?

"We have now entered the fifth year of this Fourth Turning Crisis. George Washington and his troops were barely holding on at Valley Forge during the fifth year of the American Revolution Fourth Turning. By year five of the Civil War Fourth Turning 700,000 Americans were dead, the South left in ruins, a President assassinated and a military victory attained that felt like defeat. By the fifth year of the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning, FDR’s New Deal was in place and Adolf Hitler had been democratically elected and was formulating big plans for his Third Reich."

beinki · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:42pm

(new video) Kicking the debt can

It would seem I have lost my mind at the end :)

Brotha Bob · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:47pm

I am disgusted.

I am just disgusted. I am disgusted with the current administration, that treats the Constitution as bird cage liner. Disgusted in a Congress to weak to defend the American poeples right. Disgusted markets are manipulated for the benefit of the few, and detriment of the many. All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope. Winston Churchill

ThoughtCriminal balz · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:50pm

What is wrong with the lease rates?

I'm not quite certain. It seems it was the three month lease rate that went negative last time just before the smash. Guess we'll see shortly...

balz ThoughtCriminal · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:52pm

What is wrong with the lease rates?

Usually they all go down together... but now only long-term... and big time. Blatant manipulation... Some action is coming this week!

cris LaMachinna · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:56pm

Quinn:Colbert as Turd:Jon Stewart

Turd, thanks for turning us all on to Jim Quinn. His latest is indeed a wonderful article. But beyond that, his website as a whole should be considered a second home for all Turdites Just like the Daily Show has given rise to a whole host of talented people, most prominently Colbert, so it appears that you are not merely satisfied with giving us your thoughts and creating this website, but are actively alerting us to like minded people we might not otherwise get exposed to. Well done.

I Run Bartertown · Jan 8, 2012 - 5:58pm
cpnscarlet · Jan 8, 2012 - 6:18pm

@Bartertown - I'll pass

@Bartertown - I'll pass on adding that set to the collection.

Yooper Rick · Jan 8, 2012 - 6:28pm

kicking the debt can problem with your video. It will be 4:00 AM when they come to get you.

Indentured_Servant · Jan 8, 2012 - 6:30pm

I'll second......

The Burning Platform recommendation! I found that site and Along the Watchtower (old TFMetalsReport site) about the same time. You'll likely be slapped around a bit by the regular posters over there but is generally fun. The regulars are an intelligent, irreverent and fun group.


cpnscarlet · Jan 8, 2012 - 6:33pm

More Than a Little....

disappointed that Turd didn't mention the lease rates. It's one thing that's got me a little edgy right now. Seems to me another smack down is coming and I'm not sure what to try to do about it - play it or bull through it.

firstsilver · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:01pm

It's an emotional cauldron

I just listened to the Louise Yamada interview on She's a technician whose long-term record, through up and down markets, has been enviable.

Anyway, she begins by commiserating with individual investors who may be confused by the crosscurrents of the markets in 2011 and early 2012, because the pros have been confused, too.

The way I see it, this is an increasingly complex world, with commensurately more complex interactions. That includes the markets. Throw in outright governmental interventions, more-veiled interventions, and the behind-the-scenes chicanery of high-frequency trading and we get a situation guaranteed to curl the toes of someone trying to navigate the markets at a profit.

In this time of contradictory information flow, it's easy to feel helpless. And that's when it helps to take a few hours, think about long-term issues, and decide just what you believe strongly. Do you see deflation or inflation? Can we get this turned around, or is the world headed to a Mad Max-like crackup? What are the best options for the scenario you envision?

No one can know for sure. But, in the end, you will feel better about making up your own mind and acting on that opinion with a long-term view, rather than trying to call day-to-day, hour-to-hour events, which as Yamada mentioned, even the seasoned pros are finding it impossible to do.

Good luck to all of us. We're certainly going to need it.

Senseosensei · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:02pm


I am quite surprised that apparently, some people are still around at the COMEX trying to trade. How many MF Globals does one need to finally get the message that in rigged casino's the house always wins.....

Speaking of casino's i would rather go there and put all my money on red or black..somehow i have a feeling the odds would be better making a few bucks that way.

JHNewman · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:12pm

*****Major Bottom for Gold in 3 - 5 Weeks*****

(Repost from end of last thread. My apologies. I put a lot of work into this.)

First, I'd like t0 introduce myself quickly. I've been lurking here in Turd's for a while and, now that I have more time, would like to contribute more to this wonderful community.

I specialize in trading the PMs, and have done so for a number of years. I've made a living at it for about 4 years now. Thanks to Richard Russell, my family got into the Gold Bull in 2000.

5 weeks ago, at a time when gold was at $1750 and most people were expecting it to go higher, I put up a long post in here (near the beginning of "Prepping For the Week Ahead", 12/5/11), forecasting that gold would drop to 1511 - 1420 in 5 weeks. (And got a few bricks to the head for saying so.) I put up the post just to share my viewpoint and analysis, and to warn bulls to stay on their toes -- that there was a good case for a near-term bearish scenario. Here's the beginning of that post:


Gold headed to 1511 - 1420, next 5 weeks

Submitted by jhnewman on December 5, 2011 - 11:11am. Gold/silver/miners are going to be GOING DOWN BIG over the next 5 weeks or so, IMO. (I mentioned this in a short post on Friday.).... ********** So far, gold has hit 1522 (all prices are spot). I got the direction right and the relative level, but was early on this bottom call. I believe we haven't seen the bottom of this correction yet. I believe the move out of 1522 is nothing more than a bounce, and that we're all ready in the process of rolling over to put in a 5th-and-final wave down (from the 1803 high on 11/7). (The odds are 2-1, IMO, that Friday's high of 1631 is the high for this bounce.) I think the most likely bottoming zone for this correction is 1478 - 1420. (We might hit some horizontal support at 1500, just because it's a nice round number.) 1478 is horizontal support from the big low of late June. 1430 - 1420 is horizontal resistance-turned-support from the topping process of last December. Using cycle analysis, I'd estimate this major bottom will be hit in 3 - 5 weeks. From there, gold will be heading back up to the 1850 - 1900 zone before heading down for a while to recharge for its next massive multi-year up-wave (similar to what happened from April, 2009 - September, 2011). ON GDX, we've bounced off 50 twice since early October, and "approximately" bounced off it way back in June, when gold was still definitely in its bullish phase. With my assumption that gold is going down another $135 - 190 from where we are right now, plus my assumption that the stock market is in the process of rolling over and will generally be heading down for a while, I think the odds are very high that GDX will break through 50 this time. I believe GDX will probably bottom at the horizontal support that is at 45, also in 3 - 5 weeks. Since this post is already long, I won't give specific reasons or evidence for this forecast. Along with standard TA, I use a lot of cycle analysis, some intermarket and macroeconomic stuff, and have some proprietary indicators that give me some good clues. Anyway, just my 2 cents worth right before the new trading week starts. As I mentioned, going forward, I hope to participate more in the great discussion you have going on in here. Good trading to all longs and shorts on this board! And MANY THANKS TO TURD for his on-going, generous and very insightful analysis of what the PM Bull is going to do next. jhnewman HatFirst, I'd like t0 introduce myself quickly. I've been lurking here in Turd's for a while and, now that I have more time, would like to contribute more to this wonderful community.
Jimbio · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:20pm


Edit: Missunderstood the post. my bad.

JoeKa JHNewman · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:30pm


Good post. You may wish to post at Pailin's trading corner on the Silver thread also. There are quite a few on there who no longer read stuff on Main Street.

JHNewman · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:31pm


I expect another dip to somewhere into the 1478 - 1420 zone in 3 - 5 weeks, which I believe will be The Big Bottom. 

I then believe gold will head up to the 1850 - 1900 zone. Part of what will drive that will be a corrective phase in the dollar's rise. But the biggest part of that up-move in gold will be powered, I believe, by the very same dynamic that powered the July - September monster up-leg -- the "fear/safe haven trade" as stocks in Europe, the U.S. and around the world drop powerfully. As stocks drop big in the first 6 - 8 months of this new year, there will be a time when people in Europe, the U.S. and around the world will pile into gold again because they'll be searching for a safe haven again. When this happens, it's very likely that gold and the dollar will be going up together -- that their usual strong negative correlation will change for a while.

Gotta run. Good trading!

cpnscarlet · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:32pm

Pulling Out

Well this was fun to read -

Now let's see what comes of it.

Today, I decided to cut ties with Casey Research. I was subscribing to their Big Gold and Casey Report services. In general, they really didn't tell me anything new in the way of long term trends, and their calls on miner stocks have all been pretty lousy. But worse, their predictions in 2010 on UST rates and Natural Gas were too abysmal for words.

Time to try another newsletter. Any recommendations. I was thinking on subscribing to Ted Butler's rag.

JHNewman · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:36pm

@ JoeKa

THANKS FOR THE ADVICE. I had no idea Turd's has gotten this specialized and huge. Would they be pissed on that silver thread to see a post that deals with gold and GDX but not silver?

grinners · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:43pm

Harry Dent and Bonds

Anyone care to discuss Harry Dent and his suggestion that US treasuries are the place to be (and gold and silver in a bubble)?

He seems to get what is going on to an extent, but comes to an entirely different conclusion to the PM guys.

Maybe he doesn't believe the FED can print enough to stave off debt.

The huge debt levels of governments tips the balance in favour of inflation IMO.

Be Prepared · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:45pm

@jhnewman - Thank you for putting a thoughtful analysis...

together for all of us to consider.... I am also of the belief that we will see another smackdown in a range similar to the one you outlined above. In conjunction, I expect to see the Euro move to below 1.2 into the 1.18 - 1.22 range. There is a deflationary push happening, albeit for now, that will cast a big shadow over commodities in the short term 3+ month range. yes

JoeKa JHNewman · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:47pm


It should be fine. U should post on there but accordingly 'ignore' people who get on your nerves. See u around buddy.

cpnscarlet grinners · Jan 8, 2012 - 7:55pm

@grinners - not sure about

@grinners - not sure about Dent's writings, but how can Bernanke not print "enough" once they decide to print. Just keep your finger on the "ON" button at the Bureau of Engraving and all's well with the world.

Seriously, Who'd thought the rates would be this low 12 months ago? Logic seems to say that someone's been goosing the system this long, why not keep it going? ZIRP is the policy du jour and nothing seems to be able to change that. Where are all these F***in' bond vigilantes???

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