Thu, Jan 5, 2012 - 10:31am

In a move that should have come as no surprise to anyone around here, gold and silver were both poached overnight in London. Gold had reached 1625 so it had to be put down. And so it was.

Then, the Always Dumb & Pandering (ADP) Report came out at 8:30 and showed an increase in payrolls for December of 325,000. Below is an approximation of my reaction when I read that headline:

Baby Laughing Hysterically at Ripping Paper (Original)

At any rate, the damage has been done and now the metals must search for support levels from which to bounce. Let's hope we find some support near the lines I've drawn below:

Again, I just don't get the feeling that we've seen the true bottom yet. We might have but, even if we haven't, I know we are close. I just have this gut intuition that The Cartel isn't quite ready yet to take their collective foot of off the necks of the remaining specs. Let's keep watching the OI in gold and the CoT in silver. We'll find our clues there. Until I feel the bottom is in, gold risks a drop back toward the lows of last week and silver could still fall toward 25-26. If looking to trade or buy, be patient.

Just a couple of other items. My brother-in-law sent me the link below. I think you'll find it interesting and, frankly, quite sad:


While on that goldsilver page, I found this video. Maybe it will cheer you up. Not that the content is pleasant but it is presented in an amusing fashion:


Lastly, another article from the oldie-but-goody file. This one is from January 2009 yet it is certainly still relevant today:


OK, that's all for now. As I research and read, I am becoming increasingly optimistic of a big, huge year in the metals, particularly silver. When the time comes and my confidence has increased enough, I will post all of my thoughts in detail. Until then, keep the faith.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dr GSilverWealth
Jan 5, 2012 - 12:50pm

@ SilverWealth, who

@ SilverWealth, who said: Those waiting for a formal announcement and a starter pistol to be pulled out for QEIII are deluding themselves.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Of course they are continually printing. I acknowledged that in my post. I said they print in secret and in the open. That does not change the fact that there will be a formal QE3, and it will be announced and acknowledged as such. Twist, swaps, etc. are all ways of meddling with the balance and fabricating electronic currency. QE3 will still happen. As will QE4 and 5 until the whole thing implodes. In between that we will have more bailouts for Europe and more twisting and everything in between.

We are simply watchfully waiting for the inevitable. The markets demand it and so they shall receive it. There will be a formal announcement and a starter pistol for QE3.

If it isn't called "QE3", then the markets don't react. I think those that are NOT expecting a formal QE3 (and 4 and 5...) announcement are the delusional ones.

Be Prepared
Jan 5, 2012 - 12:51pm

My Mind is just Exploding....

Thanks to Tecumseh for catching something I failed to you... that this issue was a year old! Many hat tips to you, my friend!

Jan 5, 2012 - 12:51pm

March 2012 hat trick

Turd I agree

The more news I see and read the more I feel that everything is lining up for a spectacular up leg. We have Greece deferring their debt problems yet again - till March


We have rumblings of USA forces moving into Israel against Iran (h/t to ewc58 above)

& we have PAGE on the radar as the Gold touch paper and Sprott's $1.5 bill shelf offering as the Silver touch paper.

Also both Cliff High & Bix Weir are postulating March as impact moment

In the words of Shakespeare's Julius Caesar 'Beware the Ides of March'


Jan 5, 2012 - 12:58pm

Swiss Stairs

It looks like some big buyers stepped into the silver Comex. The silver chart is showing Swiss stairs from about 10:30 on, where somebody was buying in tranches.


Dr G
Jan 5, 2012 - 12:58pm

@RaRa, but really can't

@RaRa, but really can't Greece just defer there problems forever? What's stopping them?

I ask that in all seriousness. In this crazy system we have the problems can be put off forever, until they can't anymore.

So I don't know that we will ever see pinpoint failures in the system, or cracks in the system. I'm beginning to think the whole dam will just collapse at one point and that's the end. There won't be any time to get metals. There won't be any time to get food. There won't be any time to prep.

Go to bed one day and gold is at $2100. Wake up and it is at $4900 and that's the end of it. The system is done. Anybody agree?

Jan 5, 2012 - 12:59pm

@ Shill (from a previous thread)

Man all this Testosterone in

Submitted by Shill on January 4, 2012 - 3:25pm.

Man all this Testosterone in here today...anyone smell feet?


But, all of us "non-shoe wearing hillbillies" were sharp enough to elect Rand Paul

Jan 5, 2012 - 1:01pm

Just the facts ma'am

Yes silver bubbled last spring, driven by speculators.

That's why the 5? margin hikes in a row devastated the price- it knocked the margined specs out of the game.

Look at what Ted Butler wrote, if the commercials could "rig prices lower" why did they allow themselves to get to the point that they were "at the end of their rope"? That's senseless Ted.

Silver is going to bubble up again and I strongly believe it will happen by this fall. And then it will crash again; wash/rinse/repeat is how they make money off silver. At some point around the death of the dollar this cycle will have to break but until then it's making the market makers money hand over fist on the way up and on the way down.

The real exciting news is that today 1/5/12 the dollar was showing UP .80? and silver was UP .16 cents or so. It should have been crashing on this huge dollar UP move.

"-"The big commercial silver shorts had a near death experience when the price approached $50 in April. They were at the end of their rope and needed to do something in a hurry. That’s why they rigged prices lower; so that they could buy and save themselves. These well-connected commercials knew, perhaps for the very first time, just how tight the silver market had become and how close we were to a profound physical shortage. The key is that the silver shortage wasn’t caused by excessive speculative buying or a bubble or a mania. The extreme tightness and near shortage in silver was as a result of the gradual and cumulative impact of normal investment buying over the past five years."-

Jan 5, 2012 - 1:05pm

GDXJ coming up for air...my

GDXJ coming up for air...my Natty gas play is on fire. For those playing along that is CLNE.

Jan 5, 2012 - 1:08pm

That didn't take long

Evil neocons, evil Israel, the victimized Iranian regime, "only Ron Paul can save us", etc, etc. Same shit, different Thursday.

Oh well... I guess there was no way to keep this place from turning into Zero Hedge Jr. (which is essentially Stormfront Finance). You're a excellent analyst, Turd, and you have an easy-going accessibility about you that's incredibly rare in your field. And I know you're not on board with a lot of what's being posted here. It just seems that you're powerless to do anything about it. Your core followers are from Zero Hedge, and Zero Hedgers are defined by their boundless adulation for Ron Paul and their infinite hatred for all things Israeli. (If you think I'm wrong, make sure you visit the next thread Tyler posts with the word "Israel" in it.)

I'll be reading you, but there's really no point in visiting the comments section or participating in the conversation anymore. Arguing with crazed cultists is a fool's errand, and time is getting shorter by the minute. Besides, I already did my time in college with the Chomsky and Zinn zealots. They were boring then, they're even more boring now.

Be well, good luck and enjoy the breakout this year. It should be one for the record books.

Jan 5, 2012 - 1:08pm


I'm gonna be sick. What else can they control in the name of security?

I was already thinking about stashing some food, apart from what I keep in my pantry, because of FEMA's ability to take our food. I guess I'll have to get serious about it. Hide the food. Hide the guns. Hide the PMs. I won't go on... (ranting I mean, not living)

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

by Gasivs Buttox, 17 min 34 sec ago
by Montross515, 1 hour 8 min ago
by Angry Chef, 1 hour 21 min ago
by SteveW, 1 hour 45 min ago

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 2 hours 43 min ago
by Trail Trekker, 3 hours 21 min ago
by Trail Trekker, 3 hours 25 min ago
by NW VIEW, 3 hours 52 min ago