Thu, Jan 5, 2012 - 10:31am

In a move that should have come as no surprise to anyone around here, gold and silver were both poached overnight in London. Gold had reached 1625 so it had to be put down. And so it was.

Then, the Always Dumb & Pandering (ADP) Report came out at 8:30 and showed an increase in payrolls for December of 325,000. Below is an approximation of my reaction when I read that headline:

Baby Laughing Hysterically at Ripping Paper (Original)

At any rate, the damage has been done and now the metals must search for support levels from which to bounce. Let's hope we find some support near the lines I've drawn below:


Again, I just don't get the feeling that we've seen the true bottom yet. We might have but, even if we haven't, I know we are close. I just have this gut intuition that The Cartel isn't quite ready yet to take their collective foot of off the necks of the remaining specs. Let's keep watching the OI in gold and the CoT in silver. We'll find our clues there. Until I feel the bottom is in, gold risks a drop back toward the lows of last week and silver could still fall toward 25-26. If looking to trade or buy, be patient.

Just a couple of other items. My brother-in-law sent me the link below. I think you'll find it interesting and, frankly, quite sad:


While on that goldsilver page, I found this video. Maybe it will cheer you up. Not that the content is pleasant but it is presented in an amusing fashion:


Lastly, another article from the oldie-but-goody file. This one is from January 2009 yet it is certainly still relevant today:


OK, that's all for now. As I research and read, I am becoming increasingly optimistic of a big, huge year in the metals, particularly silver. When the time comes and my confidence has increased enough, I will post all of my thoughts in detail. Until then, keep the faith. 


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


bellyacre · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:32am



RedRover · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:33am



murphy · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:33am

who knows what #

1, 2,3 ?

Over55 · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:35am

Pretty Much Metal

Are the way to go. Just got to way everything up. Would you rather have dollars or stuff / something real.

Also in times like this, it really can't hurt to be diversified into other area IMO


silverstool · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:37am


I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
`My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!'
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away".

Percy Shelley

¤ · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:37am


...for the thread and a very happy and innocent infant laughing it up.

It made my day....so far.


Be Prepared · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:38am

Nth Place

murphy - You hit the nail, my friend. There are No Numbers in the Financial World that exist which should believed as they are presented. Each story, each fact and each number twist in convoluted paths based upon hundreds of different machinations to deceive...to thwart...to hide....to abscond. We are stuck, though, operating within this meme (at least for now) and so these numbers can in some ways reflect the back path and forward trajectory. But, maybe, sometimes it feels like these freaking numbers are the only thing to hold onto in an insane world.

Repost - Didn't see the new thread... 

OC15 · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:40am


Not sure if this was mentioned Turd but Reagan did not stand down for Ford in 1976. Ford was a sitting President seeking re-election after finishing Nixon's second term.

Dr G · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:40am

Rickards, who has been

Rickards, who has been spot-on in most of his calls (especially those that are currency/Fed/ECB related) has said that formal QE3 will come when the EUR/USD falls to 1.27 area. It is at 1.281 after today's huge drop. Patience. It is inevitable that they print in secret and in the open.

OC15 · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:43am
Hammer · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:43am

ADP was pretty much ignored

ADP was pretty much ignored by the market as hogwash according to some and the news right now is Unicredit is in deep doo and Monti is on a plane somewhere and it isn't for a tan.


tburk · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:52am

Dollar Strength

I would have thought that with the Euro at 1.28 the metals would have suffered much more. Perhaps the usual dollar/gold price causality is weakening? thoughts?

Strongsidejedi · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:53am

More on Reagan Ford 1976

I concur with TF's recollection.

There is even video of Reagan giving an impromptu speech. You can see the delegates listening and collectively breath holding as the GOP realizes that they screwed up yet another nomination.

Reagan's Impromptu Speech at 1976 GOP Convention

GOP national conventions have been more about a "coronation" than an "election" for the past 60 years.

And, in each national convention, they've generally screwed up the process.

The only exception was Reagan 1980/1984 and Nixon 1972 (landslide).

None of the Bush conventions had any drama at all. Did we really believe that GW would NOT be the nominee in 2000?

Is there any doubt that the media is partial to Romney in 2012?

Strongsidejedi · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:57am

I was going to post this video, too

But I knew it would draw out all of the pro v anti Reagan stuff.

Please spare all of us the vitriol.

SSJ has posted it as a historical reference only.

SilverWealth · Jan 5, 2012 - 10:59am

already printing

Those waiting for a formal announcement and a starter pistol to be pulled out for QEIII are deluding themselves. The race has already begun and they are already printing. What are all the loans to Europe about? They are attempting to disguise their actions by using other idiot names. Its called obfuscation and deceit. Its direct from the Nathan Rothschild playbook.

See the video yesterday of an X Fed member saying the same on zerohedge I believe it was.

The game is constantly to use different names and explanations for the same thing. This way they can 'save face' without having to admit that I and II failed abysmally and they can also forestall the commodities markets from going ballistic.

Shill · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:03am

( From a Friend, you know who

( From a Friend, you know who you are ( wink )

YouTube - Iowa Caucus 2012: GOP Establishment Steals Votes From Ron Paul, Voter Fraud? 1/2


YouTube - Iowa Caucus 2012: GOP Establishment Steals Votes From Ron Paul, Voter Fraud? 2/2


ewc58 · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:03am

You want to be set on fire? The above is just kid stuff...

Try on having our kids used as Hostage Shields in the tender loving care of Likud Israel and see how much that burns you. Oh yeah, like this is going to end well. Mr. Obama and the usual gaggle neocon traitors and 5th Columnists all think this is a swell idea. What else does one have to know?

The forecast is Pain. I'm sorry in advance to all the Moms and Dads who'll never see their kids again. Their lives wasted, used up to support (read: die for) the True Haters and their mad schemes. As they've already been doing for so long in Iraq and Afghanistan. Thousands and thousands and thousands of young Americans. Dead. Shoulda had a real life, now are worm food. But apparently, those thousands being wasted and their families and friends being forever heartbroken is not enough. Oh no..... not nearly. The really big losses (in the all-out effort to prop up Evil) are now just ahead. Calls on Mortician companies should be a real money maker in 2012! Ah, free enterprise.

See, this is what happens when criminally insane globalists gain control of all the levers of power of an entire nation. And all it took was for all of you to be too scared to speak up.

Now? It may be too late. Our only hope is Ron Paul in November. If there's an election. It may be called on account of WAR. Beware the Ides of March.

BREAKING NEWS: The Pentagon to Send US Troops to Israel. Iran is the Unspoken Target

Blacked-out news story in America...
Global Research, January 4, 2012

January 2, 2012. Jerusalem. In one of the most blacked-out stories in America right now, the US military is preparing to send thousands of US troops, along with US Naval anti-missile ships and accompanying support personnel, to Israel.

It took forever to find a second source for confirmation of this story and both relatively mainstream media outlets are in Israel. With one source saying the military deployment and corresponding exercises are to occur in January, the source providing most of the details suggests it will occur later this spring. Calling it not just an “exercise”, but a “deployment”, the Jerusalem Post quotes US Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc, Commander of the US Third Air Force based in Germany. The US Commander visited Israel two weeks ago to confirm details for “the deployment of several thousand American soldiers to Israel.” In an effort to respond to recent Iranian threats and counter-threats, Israel announced the largest ever missile defense exercise in its history. Now, it’s reported that the US military, including the US Navy, will be stationed throughout Israel, also taking part.

While American troops will be stationed in Israel for an unspecified amount of time, Israeli military personnel will be added to EUCOM in Germany. EUCOM stands for United States European Command.

In preparation for anticipated Iranian missile attacks upon Israel, the US is reportedly bringing its THAAD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, and ship-based Aegis ballistic missile systems to Israel. The US forces will join Israeli missile defense systems like the Patriot and Arrow. The deployment comes with “the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East”.

The Jerusalem Post reports that US Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc was in Israel meeting with his Israeli counterpart, Brig.-Gen Doron Gavish, commander of the Air Defense Division. While there, the US General visited one of Israel’s three ‘Iron Dome’ anti-missile outposts. The Israeli Air Force has announced plans to deploy a fourth Iron Dome system in the coming months. Additional spending increases in the Jewish state will guarantee the manufacture and deployment of three more Iron Dome systems by the end of 2012. The Israelis are hoping to eventually have at least a dozen of the anti-missile systems deployed along its northern and southern borders.

In a show of escalated tensions in the region, Iran test fired two long range missiles today. One, called the Qadar, is a powerful sea-to-shore missile. The other was an advanced surface-to-surface missile called the Nour. According to Iranian state news, the Nour is an ‘advanced radar-evading, target-seeking, guided and controlled missile’. Additionally, the Iranian military reportedly test-fired numerous other short, medium and long-range missiles. Yesterday, Iranian authorities reported that they test-fired the medium-range, surface-to-air, radar-evading Mehrab missile. Today is supposed to be the final day of Iranian naval drills in the Straits of Hormuz.

Iran recently made global headlines when it threatened to blockade the Straits of Hormuz if Europe and the US went ahead with their boycott of Iranian oil and the country’s central bank. One-quarter of the world’s oil passes through that waterway every day. President Obama has announced that a closure of the Straits was unacceptable and vowed to take whatever measures are necessary to keep the vital shipping lane open.

In response to the Iranian missile tests this weekend, French authorities were the first to respond, calling it a, “very bad signal to the international community."We want to underline that the development by Iran of a missile program is a source of great concern to the international community,"the French Foreign Ministry said in a written statement. Israeli officials suggested the flamboyant Iranian military drills this weekend were a sign that international sanctions on the country were taking a heavy toll and that any additional boycotts, on its banks or oil industry, would be crippling.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the large missile tests showed, “the dire straits of Iran in light of the tightening sanctions around her, including the considerations in the last few days regarding the sanctions of exporting petroleum as well as the possibility of sanctions against the Iranian Central Bank." While the chances of Iran going through with its threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz are slim, the deployment of thousands of US troops and naval ships to Israel shows the US isn’t taking any chances.

See also Jerusalem Post, December 21, 2011 at https://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=250249
also at

Mickey · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:04am


selloff tied to tomorrows jobs report? Just has had a huge correlation in the past.

I see TGT has weak sales--where did all the good news about jobs come from (gold was up till the adp number came in).

anybody noticing that general equities are having a difficult time growing their companies? TGT, BBY, etc. Even IBM is not going great guns.

On the other hand, miners are showing huge increases (that we here knew would happen)-yet the market loves the low growth companies and disses the high growth miners.(and gold analysts were figuring on 1400 average price of gold last year)

Wonder when the market mavens wake up to the mere fact that investors pay up for growth--not the other way around.

These huge spx pe's are vulnerable.

unless, of course, if so much funny money is printed and dropped by bens helicopters to the people vs banks, in which case we do get the stock price and other price inflation

right now all we have is the bond price inflation

Bay of Pigs · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:09am

Dr G

Yes. That is the important point on QE. It started and hasn't stopped. Some posters seem to think the Bernank will not print openly. It doesn't really matter, as he is printing nonetheless. (although I agree with you, they will have do it openly at some point).

You read that link that TF provided on US debt and it is 100% certain they are printing right now. The system would have already collapsed without it.

Those numbers are mind boggling. Clearly shows that gold and silver are still relatively cheap compared to fiat. Especially silver.

Mudsharkbytes · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:25am

NDAA, SOPA, now this garbage - when will it end?

Excerpt copy / pasted from:


Follow the link to read the whole article.

Senate Bill S 510 Food Safety Modernization Act vote imminent: Would outlaw gardening and saving seeds.

Senate Bill 510, the Food Safety Modernization Act, has been called "the most dangerous bill in the history of the United States of America." It would grant the U.S. government new authority over the public's right to grow, trade and transport any foods. This would give Big brother the power to regulate the tomato plants in your backyard. It would grant them the power to arrest and imprison people selling cucumbers at farmer's markets. It would criminalize the transporting of organic produce if you don't comply with the authoritarian rules of the federal government.

"It will become the most offensive authority against the cultivation, trade and consumption of food and agricultural products of one's choice. It will be unconstitutional and contrary to natural law or, if you like, the will of God." - Dr. Shiv Chopra, Canada Health whistleblower 

This tyrannical law puts all food production (yes, even food produced in your own garden) under the authority of the Department of Homeland Security.

· Jan 5, 2012 - 11:37am

The laughing baby

The irony (and the best part) is that the Dad is ripping up an employment rejection letter.

Bsong · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:40am
beardeus · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:42am

@ Laughing baby/ Debt limit video


The laughing baby is what life is all about.

The debt limit video is how TPTB are destroying it.


OC15 · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:45am

I see your point

But what I'm saying is there's no way in hell were the Repubs going to unseat their own sitting President within their own party. They probably KNEW they were going to get dumped at that point, knew things would get even worse the next 4 years and that their best guy would be a shoein in 80. It gave them a chance to get Reagan some air play. But I see what you are saying and I think your theory is valid nonetheless.

Bay of Pigs · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:46am

This is tremendous news

If this doesn't cheer you up on silver, nothing will.

Ted Butler,

"The big commercial silver shorts had a near death experience when the price approached $50 in April. They were at the end of their rope and needed to do something in a hurry. That’s why they rigged prices lower; so that they could buy and save themselves. These well-connected commercials knew, perhaps for the very first time, just how tight the silver market had become and how close we were to a profound physical shortage. The key is that the silver shortage wasn’t caused by excessive speculative buying or a bubble or a mania. The extreme tightness and near shortage in silver was as a result of the gradual and cumulative impact of normal investment buying over the past five years. There is nothing to suggest that the long term and steady silver investment buying has ended."

"Because there was no bubble or mania in silver, there was no bubble to burst. The orchestrated takedowns of the price by the big commercial interests were simply so that these commercials could buy and rid themselves of silver short positions. That’s done now. That means that the silver market is now in the best possible shape."

"What lies ahead for silver is exciting. While we have not witnessed a bubble in silver yet, we will some day. The silver story and the dynamics of the market are too compelling for an investment mania not to emerge at some point. If anything, speculative sentiment has been completely wrung out from silver, clearing the way for speculators and investors to enter the market with a vengeance. At some point, enough of the world’s industrial silver users will panic as prices climb and attempt to build physical silver inventories. This user buying, something that never kicked in during the run to $50 will create a silver shortage, the likes of which never witnessed before. It seems that the big commercial interests have come to learn the real silver story and they appear to want no part of the short side again. The major pressure of selling has passed...and the way seems clear for higher prices. By the time the next chapter in the silver story plays out, $50 could look cheap."


Shill · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:47am

WSJ just can't deal with the

WSJ just can't deal with the fact that Ron Paul, by buying gold and silver stocks and thus betting against the Fed, has most likely the best performing portfolio of any congressmen ever.

They are out with, amazingly, another hit piece on his successful portfolio. At one point, they suggest they don't know it is a huge success:


agauinvest · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:49am

Dollar Strength/Bill Gross

Dollar strength without a proportional gold hit is the safe haven play regarding geopolitical risks. 

Bill Gross wrote saying what we already know - we may have delevering or inflation. NSS. He didn't take a side. 


WangDang Doodle · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:56am

HIstory Repeats

It would be interesting to see whether Ron Paul gets a chance to speak at the Republican convention after Romney wins the nomination and all the delegates realize they just elected the wrong guy.

Obama wins over Romney just like Carter won over Ford.

Bay of Pigs · Jan 5, 2012 - 11:56am

John Hathaway calls a bottom

"We believe that the decline in both the metal and the shares has run its course. We also believe that this painful correction has set the stage for significant new highs in both the metal and the shares in 2012."

 And, more importantly,

“Gold has a history of shaking out all but its staunchest holders and making losers out of sold out bulls.”


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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

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