New Year's Eve

Sat, Dec 31, 2011 - 12:35pm

What are you doing, New Year's Eve? Well, if you're like me, you're cleaning the house on the orders of the Mrs. In between chores, however, I figured you might be looking for a distraction so I present these two items.

First, another great video from Judge Napolitano. You've probably noticed by now that I'm a big fan of his. In fact, his program is the only television program (other than football) that I ever watch. Please do not dismiss him because his show is on the Fox Business Network. The Judge is a true constitutionalist and patriot.

The other item is the latest column from Jim Quinn at The Burning Platform. As you know, this site is another one that I've recently discovered and now frequent. This year-end summary and look ahead is well worth your time.

That's all for now as I hear Mrs F hollering for me from upstairs. She must have found another toilet for me to clean. I hope that everyone has a fun and safe New Year's Eve. Sometime tomorrow or Monday I will post my own year-end review and look ahead so please keep checking back from time to time. TF

p.s. For good measure, here's another extremely important video from The Judge. Please watch the entire clip and forward it to anyone you feel needs to hear it.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 31, 2011 - 12:54pm


no way

Dec 31, 2011 - 12:55pm
Dec 31, 2011 - 1:15pm

never been turd

never been turd

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:27pm

first post

I just had a thought and wanted to post it so I registered.

How about a write in campaign for Judge Napolitano for potus. He seems to have the right stuff.

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:29pm

Happy New Year Turd!

Thanks for all you've done in the last year! And thanks to all here who help and contribute so much as well. I know I'd be so much farther behind in my knowledge, phyzz stack, and other preparations if it wasn't for Turd and all the Turdites.

2012 should be an epic year for sure...who knows what will happen.

Will the Great Keynesian Experiment finally go down in flames?

Will the Comex finally default?

Will Blythe, Ruprect, and the Monkeys finally make their escape to Venezuela?

Will Ron Paul win the Presidential election or will it be Ann Barnhardt? j/k Maybe it should be Judge Nap! (he is kick ass!)

Will I lose all my phyzz in a tragic boating accident on the Gulf of Mexico?

Will it all just end on December 21, 2012 anyway like the Mayan's predicted?

Or will there be a Turdite convention at the Bellagio in Las Vegas??? <<< HINT-HINT

Who knows...but it will be a seriously interesting year ahead finding out the answers to all these questions!

See you all on the other side! (or maybe at the Bellagio)

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:30pm

another year end review

Looks interesting. Haven't gotten through it yet

Every December I write a Year in Review. Last year's was posted at several sites including Chris Martenson’s [1]. What started as summaries posted for a couple dozen people accrued over 13,000 clicks in total last year. It elicited discussions with some interesting people and several podcasts, including a particularly enjoyable one with Chris [2]. Each begins with a highly personalized survey of my efforts to get through another year of investing. This is followed by a brief update of what is now a 32-year quest for a soft landing in retirement. These details may be instructive for some casual observers. I have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory since the late 1990s and have ignored the siren call for diversification. I vigilantly monitor my progress relative to standard benchmarks. The bulk of the blog describes thoughts and ideas that are on my radar. The commentary is largely stream-of-consciousness with a few selected links that might be worth a peek. Some are flagged as “must see”. Everything else can be found here [3].

So why do people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods? I can only offer a few thoughts. For starters, in 32 years of investing I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars; whatever I am doing has worked. I also ride the blogs hard, am fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity, seem to be a congenital contrarian, and am pretty well connected (for a chemist). I am Joe Sixpack, a 99er of sorts with a growing unease.

Every year I feel like Bill Murray in ground hog day. Issues including the housing crises, hidden inflation (of a kind that even John Williams is not discussing), and interest rates have not disappeared, but I hit them hard last year and will not rehash them. I spoke of civil unrest in 2009 but not 2010. That topic has returned with a vengeance. The temptation to say "I told you so" can be irresistible. I have cordoned off a section to get it out of my system. Ad hominem attacks are reserved for jerks and morons, and I will try to avoid trite phrases of little content. I saw "risk on-risk off" so many times that I thought the Fed had hooked the markets to The Clapper. So let's quit kicking the can down the road and get started.

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:31pm



I spent a few hours over the holiday week to read over some of the new articles from the alternative media. There are two trains of thought going forward into 2012. Either we have continued so called DEFLATION or INFLATION. If you go to King World News you will hear most of the analysts forecasting much higher GOLD and SILVER prices. I am in this camp myself.

On the other hand, Rick Ackerman had to say this in his 10 TOP PREDICTIONS for 2012:

* Gold will stage a powerful rally after bottoming at $1445 in January, but the buying spree will fall well short of $2000. Silver will fare relatively worse, falling to $18.35 before finding traction and recovering into the low $30s.

And then we have Antal Fekete (master on Gold and Austrian Economics) state just a few days ago:

When a central bank increases the monetary base three-fold in three years, this is a clear invitation for bond speculators to move in and make a killing. But what the central bank utterly fails to understand is that, contrary to its hopes, new money is not going to the commodity market. Speculative risks there are far too great. Instead, new money is going to the bond market where the fun is. Bond speculation is risk-free.

...Bernanke’s Fed in blissful ignorance is still putting money in the hands of speculators which they use to place bets on the further fall of interest rates and commodity prices.


Both are excellent in their field of knowledge on this matter. So what is it? Do we believe the folks like James Turk, Stephen Leeb, Peter Schiff, Jim Sinclair, Eric Sprott, John Embry, or others on King World News that the price of Gold and Silver are heading much higher in 2012...or do we believe Antal Fekete, Rick Ackerman, Bob Precther (elliot wave), Clive Maund, Dennis Gartman or the other bearish commentators? This makes ones head spin.

The reason I am in the INFLATION- HIGHER PRICES CAMP is due to the fact that as the situation in the U.S. Economy gets horribly worse, budgets just fall apart and deficits go thru the roof. As John William from Shadowstats states, "The U.S. Deficit is more like $5 Trillion than $1.5 Trillion in 2011."

Just like the Housing Market, this sort of Insanity can not continue for long before the BOTTOM FALLS OUT.

Antal Fekete may be right that there is RISK FREE speculation in Bonds, but he fails to comprehend the Falling EROI -energy returned on invested. Back in the 1930's, oil producers were pumping out oil at a cost of 1 barrel of oil for every 100 barrels supplied to the market. Thus, there was a big ROOM FOR DEFLATION OF PROFITS for them to keep making money. Today we find the opposite.

SHALE OIL has an EROI of 5/1 at the most. The EROI of U.S. oil and gas is now below 10/1.... probably more like 8-9/1. This ratio is figured on the US Dollar as a guideline. What happens when the US Dollar collapses? This will destroy the EROI ratio, thus pushing it farther down producing less PROFITS.

Anyhow, I don't see the US Treasury Bond Bubble going on for years as we are witnessing the EXPONENTIAL RISE in GOLD and SILVER. Once a system heads into this sort of curve, it cannot be stopped. The amount of manipulation currently in these precious metal markets is becoming unsustainable.

(Courtesy of James Turk at silver article on SILVER MINE SUPPLY vs COIN DEMAND will be coming out next week.

Hope you all have a HAPPY NEW YEAR.

Sneed Hearn
Dec 31, 2011 - 1:32pm

Wisdom from the past

George Bernard Shaw said “You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the government. And with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you…to vote for gold.” The term "due respect" is, I think, self explanatory with "due" = zero.

Swift Boat Vet
Dec 31, 2011 - 1:34pm

Turd's Toothsome Tidbits

I'll be looking forward to your 'Toothsome Tidbits' about next year. I have my general feelings, but of course I'm not a Turd, just a small turdling in training pants.

I'm sure silver will be a very large amount higher in a year, though I have no idea how much higher. The physicality of the silver market will just be too much to bear. IMHO It might take 2013 to do it, but I do believe the time is growing quite short for the first leg of an explosion in PM pricing. In the meantime, I'm going to increase supplies of all kinds to insure my family's well-being and keep stacking and B-ingTFDs.

A very Happy New Year to you Turd and to all you fantastic Turdites out there in turdland. May the coming year be the happiest, healthiest and most prosperous year of your lives. And may God Almighty bless you and yours.


Dec 31, 2011 - 1:40pm


Can you comment on the Gold-silver trading ratio?

I have been wanting to analyze the GSR in various fiat currencies like in UK Pound-Sterling, US Federal Reserve Notes, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, and SDRs.

I can not locate a place which publishes the SDR trading rates for gold and silver.

However, if Jim Rickards is correct, the IMF will begin printing SDR's in the millions in order to off set and absorb monetary pressure from the central banks.

IMF must have gold reserves priced in SDR's and they must have silver reserves similarly stored or allocated. If not, then IMF is a sham and hollow organization. If so, where is IMF's gold stored and where is the SDR pricing chart for IMF trades in gold and silver?

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:46pm

George Soros Dumps Gold Holdings

Hi Turd - many thanks for all that you do. Wishing you a fab 2012.

I came across this earlier and wanted to pass it on and get your opinion.

All the best for 2012 to all the turndites....have a good one!

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:54pm

the bottom falls out


My question is, what does it look like when "the bottom falls out"?

I wonder if we are in a somewhat unique situation here given the domination of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Can the dollar "survive" as long as the US continues to demonstrate a dominant, unchallenged military?

I ask because I have painfully invested in "the bottom falling out" prior to this time. It reminds me of that saying that "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

I think it is likely that "the bottom falls out" will look like a quick "surprising" event; unexpected in some quarters.

I also think that the ability to predict exactly how and when that plays out to be difficult, at best.

At this moment in time, the US is "allowed" to be the singular military police force on the planet. There is a relatively broad international alignment with the game called "the US dollar is a sound currency".

I don't know that "sound" fiscal policy, or the lack thereof, results in "the bottom falls out". I wonder if the "world war 3" scenario results in players walking away from the "sound currency" game.......and at that point, the jig is up.

Doesn't "the manipulation" continue unabated as long as reverence is paid the the US as the singular military force?

Eric Original
Dec 31, 2011 - 1:55pm

I don't have to clean...

...because I do all the holiday cooking! Yippee!

Wiener Schnitzel and spaetzle for 7 people last night. Potstickers and chicken wings for 8 people tonight.

Dec 31, 2011 - 1:56pm


old news ..... it refers to Soros exiting mostly his GLD holdings which he knows is a ponzi and he doesn't want to get stuck in it when the SHTF.....don't get too caught up in the disinformation campaign of the PTB....Soros knows the game well

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:02pm


I want to comment on your replies but am busy with holiday family festivities. I will be commenting later tonight or tomorrow.

thanks for the replies

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:03pm

My goodness you're whipped TF

"That's all for now as I hear Mrs F hollering for me from upstairs. She must have found another toilet for me to clean."

We have a simple arrangement around here. She does all the inside stuff and I do all the outside stuff which includes working on the vehicles, garden & fruit trees; as well as all fixits & maintenance. I also run the business 99.9% by myself so all in all she has a pretty good deal.

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:06pm

@ Save America First- Bellagio

I am glad that you proposed this. I have been thinking that Turdville needs to plan a party. How about a gold = $2,000 and/or a silver = $50 party? Even better if we have both.

Feed the Turd! Beat the end of year rush & sign up on the monthly plan!

Ganja Jane
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:13pm

My Screen name gives away part of my plans...

If I can snag a visit from Midnight Toker, there'll be sweat involved too. ;-) A toker who's also a smart and sexy metal bug...the universe is the limit. Happy New Year, Turdites!

I keep getting this mental image of Turd in a French maid's outfit (seemed stockings, garters and all!) with his signature yellow hat on while feather dusting. The feathers are pink!

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:16pm

I had a steak dinner when gold hit 1000

Why not have a steak dinner somewhere when gold hits 2000, and we all go dutch on it? That's physical gold in the cash market, BTW. I have no hope for MFG gold.

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:17pm

Happy New Year.... TF, the administrative staff, the moderators and all of you awesome Turdite's out there!

A Happy New Year also to all of you lurkers (shy/quiet types) who just sit back and read and absorb the diversity of all the posts that are available at TFMR.

I look forward to seeing your first post on here in 2012 about anything you have to say or vent about. If you haven't done so already please take the time to register (it's quick/easy).

I hope everyone of you has a positive year going forward!

Smiddywesson tedmrh
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:18pm

The bottom falls out


The dollar cannot survive without the currency of our trading partners surviving. Everything is linked together. That's why we are bailing out Europe. Remember when the Swiss franc was a safehaven currency? When everyone else engaged in QE, they had to intervene by pegging to the Euro. The same pressure will bear upon the dollar as the other fiat currencies flounder. This crisis will see money continue to flow into the dollar, increasing pressure to hold the Euro up, and push the dollar down. When the Fed or the ECB are forced to print, they will all print together. Don't forget, the US was in a much stronger position in the 30s, and yet we devalued the dollar and printed. They will do it this time too, there's no other choice.

Bay of Pigs
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:19pm


Thanks for one of the better posts I've read here lately. Hope the crew takes it to heart instead of listening to people who have no idea what they're talking about on the topic of silver.

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:22pm


"The only way to outsmart the fox is to know their tactics, anticipate their every move and stay at least 2 steps ahead. It is truly economic warfare and your tactics have to be good if not superb."

​Double Devil's advocate: I agree that because rich people have PMs too, taxation is far more probable than confiscation. The rich don't fear the tax man. However, after seeing our pensions and 401ks obliterated, and our Social Security and Medicare benefits evaporate, there will be too many people ignoring the tax man to be effective, so they may resort to other measures:

They "peg" to gold, devalue fiat, ramp gold prices, print like crazy, and issue a new currency. Everybody cashes out of their PMs and makes boatloads of "money" with which they bottom fish stocks and real estate. Deflation keeps right on trucking, and although stocks and house prices rise for a few years, eventually the economy starts to show evidence of slowing "growth" which all along was a sham brought about by deflation and manipulating gold prices higher. Then, the new currency fails, erasing your paper profits and leaving you with no physical. Rinse and repeat, with the banks getting less insolvent and more PMs being lured into strong hands with each repetition. Finally, with the economy in smoldering ruins, they issue a currency backed by gold.

So, as a devil's advocate I'd have to say that once you conclude the system has to fail, to be truly safe, you have to be willing to ignore the EE, and NOT try to stay two steps ahead. This is why I enjoyed myself this week. I left stocks and I don't trade. I keep peacefully adding to my hoard and welcome lower prices because the system is doomed. Tracking that death too closely is the only way they can wring my money from me.

We are all likely to see an incredible profit on our PMs this year, but I'm not going to pick the top and cash out. It's just not safe out there until deflation concludes and the currency is backed by something.


I'd say that's one damn way of staying 2 steps ahead, perhaps even 3. If not, what else would you call it?

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:22pm



I agree. My thoughts would rely upon the Euro continuing to exist (limp along). The major players must remain at the table playing the game on the same game board.

A complete collapse of the Euro and the ECB would mean that "the bottom has fallen out".

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:32pm
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:46pm

Happy New Year to Turdville!!

May this year be one that brings us much good fortune!

My feeling is that a big smack down is coming in the PM's initially, however I still stand by my assessment that the economic fundamentals are on my side.

I have watched all the chartists post here and in other blogs with much curiosity. I believe that the charts only tell part of the story, market fundamentals and my instincts fill in the other parts of the image.

With all these things in the mix, I am predicting a big smack down in Q1 of 2012 most likely in the first 6 weeks of the year. The Cartel will use this to further set the stage for more CB accumulation before things are allowed to really go south.

Based on all the info in my poor pea brain and my gut instincts, I am going out on a limb, saying the bottom is not in and we will see Gold push towards $1200 and Silver at or near $18. I hope I'm wrong and would like to hear others views. My position is based purely on my gut and my understanding of the PTB and how I've seen them work for the last decade.

I hope I'm wrong and I'm sure the residents of our little podunk will trash my views but the stage has been set for further manipulation by our fearless overlords.

Again, Happy New Year from your neighborhood spoil sport.


PS: I believe the metals will end 2012 at record highs so don't sell a thing and remember to BTFD!

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:47pm

December Prediction Calendar - Lost Cause

Well it's the last day of the month and the December Prediction Calendar (including all the year-end predictions) is a smoldering ruin. Almost a pointless exercise posting this since nearly everyone I usually follow was devastatingly wrong. I guess the only person worth mentioning is Larry Edelson since his Sept (?) prediction about PMs were the closest. He was looking for 1430-1520 Au and 23-25 Ag. So, unfortunately for most of us, he's the "winner".

And who's the biggest loser? Well in silver, Bix Weir and BroJohnF take the cake for their continual 100 Ag calls all over 2011. For gold, take your pick, but the big stand out would be John Embry with a "knowledge-mistake product" being quite high - you don't expect a guy with that much experience being that wrong. He also had a very bad call on the miners stating during the year in that the HUI would be 900 by now - OUCH!

Yes, all the "cheerleaders" made a great five-tier pyramid this year and all are nursing broken bones (let's not even mention Jim Turk - he was at the top of that pyramid IMHO). But let's not forget other sage names like Rickards and Hathaway as well. At least Rickard's call on "no QE3" was dead on when others called him a nut. Now he says there will be a QE3 by May. Should we listen?

And here at Turdville, there were more than enough calls for 50 Ag and 2000 Au. You know who you are and one friend owes Turd ~$28 today on a lost bet, although that's one I really wish I would have lost. But perhaps the most disappointing call was by a Turdite (you know who) who said the EURUSD would be up in the 1.42-1.45 range now. Another big error.

So what does this teach us? Either 1) the EE is still solidly in control or 2) no one knows what will happen in the next half hour. Little bit of both I'm sure, but I SAY that when really smart players make blown calls, it's because the fundos are being outweighed by some "mysterious" force. Of course, maybe the force isn't so mysterious. It might be just plain old greed-motivated theft and lies.

My main hope for 2012 at the moment - a slow, painful death for thieves and liars. "Mr. Corzine - your meat hook in hell is ready!" Right next to Gensler and Chilton and the whole CME Board. If Bart was such a good guy, he should have done something by now.


Sneed Hearn tedmrh
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:48pm

Dec 31, 2011 - 2:52pm

interesting reading today

While doing a bit of reading this afternoon, I just came across an interesting statement by Aristotle (my avatar) in On Rhetoric

What is rare is a greater good than what is plentiful. Thus, gold is a better thing than iron, though less useful: it is harder to get, and therefore better worth getting. Reversely, it may be argued that the plentiful is a better thing than the rare, because we can make more use of it. For what is often useful surpasses what is seldom useful, whence the saying: "The best of things is water. " So Aristotle is teaching us to acquire gold and useful things, including a good water supply. Sounds like a gold bug prepper to me...
DaddyO Doctor J
Dec 31, 2011 - 2:57pm

Sounds like a gold bug prepper to me...

or someone who understood personal responsibility!

Nice post, Dr Jerome



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