Revise and Extend

Fri, Dec 30, 2011 - 9:50am

Just wanted to take a moment and add a few thoughts to the previous post.

I wrote that post late Wednesday with the intention of keeping it up all day yesterday. I had a hunch that The Cartel would try to gun the PMs yesterday and they did. Is it a concern that they were able to smash gold through 1550? Of course. However, it's not the end of the world by any means.

Remember, I'm just working with a ruler and a sharpie here. I've been saying 1550 for a couple of months now based upon where I eyeballed the trendline from the 2008 lows. The key here is that 1550 was/is an approximation. Thankfully, several posters to the comments of the previous thread were able to define the trendline more exactly.

First up, "goldfinch" pointed out that Louise Yamada had been on KWN back on 12/6, basically giving the same numbers that we have been discussing here. As you know, Ms. Yamada is the only technical analyst for whom I have great respect. Her history and track record speak for itself. To discover yesterday that she is looking at the same charts as little ole me made me smile a bit. Maybe I have learned something over the years.

Just a few minutes later, "kazooclown" posted a more accurate representation of the weekly chart. I've reprinted it below so that you can see where he has drawn the trendline. As you can see, it's considerably below 1550.

Anyway, there are three important points I want you to take away from this thread:

  1. 1550 was not a hard and fast number. It was a projection and a guess. Therefore, failure at that exact level is not cause for extreme alarm and concern. That said, failure at 1500-1515 would, quite obviously, be a cause for extreme alarm and concern as both Yamada and "kazooclown" have shown us.
  2. Yesterday was not likely the bottom. It could have been but it probably wasn't. If 1500-1515 is, in fact, a better representation of the trendline, then we should all be prepared for gold to trade down close to there sometime early in 2012. This final move down in gold will likely also cause silver to move down close to its long-term trendline near 25.
  3. And this may be the most important point so I'll reprint it from the previous post: "So, here we are, caught in this strange new paradigm of extreme physical demand in the face of plummeting paper prices. In this environment, why on earth would we expect the gold price to suddenly stop and reverse exactly at some trendline on the chart? That makes no sense. The trendline is a reflection of market price history that simply has no bearing on today. Simply put, the trendline held in the past because investors still had some measure of faith and confidence in the current system. But this is the dawn of a new day. The Comex is dying. Soon, the spread between the price of paper and physical metal will diverge to such a point as to make the Comex an obsolete joke. But that day isn't here yet. It may still be weeks or months away. Until then, the imbalance between buyers and sellers will only increase so I expect the price of paper metal to decline even farther. All of this likely makes my little trendline as obsolete as a sliderule."

So far this week, open interest has held in there. In fact, its even expanded a little in silver. As long as total OI stabilizes above 400,000 in gold and above 100,000 in silver, we can consider the Comex to still be "alive". So, under those conditions, I have a high degree of confidence that the long-term trendlines will hold and will function as support as gold and silver finally find their bottoms from the manufactured declines of the final 4 months of 2011. The bottoms may have occurred yesterday but I think it's likely that we will see a final, capitulation event early in 2012 where gold drops into the 1500-1515 area and silver touches 25.

Lastly, as a pick-me-up, here's a fun little nugget I found while searching KWN for the Louise Yamada clip. It's an interview of the genuinely smart Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland. I think it will put a smile on your face and let me just say, I don't disagree with him...$3,000_-_$5,000_in_2012.html

OK, that's all for now. I plan to type up a kind of month-end and year-end summary later today or tomorrow so keep checking back. Have a great day. Smile and be happy. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 30, 2011 - 11:14am

41 wrote:International Bacon

41 wrote:

International Bacon Day or Bacon Day is an unofficial observance, often celebrated on December 30th.

Hmmm, sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but not according to the wiki link...

Wikipedia wrote:

International Bacon Day or Bacon Day is an unofficial observance, often celebrated on the Saturday before US Labor Day (the first Monday of September). Some cultures, however, celebrate on 19th of February, while others celebrate the day on the first Saturday in January after the new year.

Sorry Eric, something to look forward to in the new year? I recommend celebrating all three dates for 2012: January 7, February 19, and September 1. ;-)

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:19am

Predictions for 2012 A look

Predictions for 2012 A look into the future

by Justin Raimondo, December 28, 2011

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:20am

Smack Down Is Like A Cheap French Hotel !

Remember the Europe on $5 a day of the 1960s ! The days of wine, CANNED BACON and roses ! Those charming, thread bare Paris hotels with bidet (a kind of liquid panty liner) and washing your stinky nylon (I'm talkin' men's socks!) socks in the wash basin/urinal ? You wrang them out as completely as you could then hung them on the window latch ? I even used the "torniquet method" of looping them over the faucet and twisting ! You wanted to get all the loose water out so they would dry over night ! A "Smack Down" is the same......they want to wring out every last drop of loose silver from weak, undeserving hands ! So, man up, stop whining, put on a smile and a fresh panty liner and resume stacking ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad My Hemingway Years !

Be Prepared
Dec 30, 2011 - 11:22am

Every Day is International Bacon Day!

Here's the Official Sandwich of the Celebration!

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:28am


those are pretty looking charts that Turd posted but why is it written somewhere that a trendline with a whole lot of air underneath it will hold at 1500? Makes absolutely no sense. Especially if you feel banksters are attempting to crush gold and silver and shakeout sheeple at the bottom so they can buy more.

Sorry. If I'm a bankster I destroy that silly chart. Its just a chart. Any dollar rally whatsoever in the New Year makes that chart completely irrelevant. Any body know the size of the dollar market compared to gold? Besides, if I am a bankster I 'violate' that silly trend line, sweep stops of trendline readers and then take price back up.

There was strength in the first big wave down in Gold from 1925 area to 1550. Take the length of that impulsive wave and subtract it from the 1800, the start of this wave down, and there in you get a simple target where selling could well exhaust itself. The target is around 1425 area using simple three-wave analysis I think. If however price violates 1425 with ease then there will be more selling to come.

The fact that in this last selloff we did not get any good bounce at the 1610 area which is around the halfway mark down from 1800 indicates sellers were in control. This is a simple system used by Rick Ackerman that can work very well for people looking for down and up targets especially in volatility where there are lots of games around things like 'support' and trendlines. I view support and trendlines like I would a hot girlfriend who cheats on you all the time.

BagOfGold George Clooney
Dec 30, 2011 - 11:29am


I believe I found your earrings!!!...

Happy New Year!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:32am

2011 geopolitics year in review (tin-foil edition)

The year 2011 was surely the year of the dupe. Youth enamored with lofty, naive notions of "freedom" sold to them by corporate-fascist funded NGOs were brought into the streets to create chaos and division which was then capitalized on by covert political and even military maneuvering by the West and its proxy forces. In Egypt the nation is teetering on the edge of being fully integrated into the Wall Street/London international order, while a big-oil representative is enjoying his new position as prime minister of Libya. In Tunisia a life-long stooge of Western machinations is now president, and an alarming campaign of NATO-backed violence and terrorism is gripping Syria.

With the encirclement of Russia and China, these dupes have witlessly brought the world to the edge of World War III, and clearly done nothing at all to improve their own state of being. As their nations fall under the control of increasing Western influence, the resources once used to placate them and defend their nationalism will now be diverted into the bottomless maw of the parasitic banking combines that are currently destroying both North America and Europe.......

Let us not "hope" next year fairs better for free humanity. Let us with our two hands, our will, and our capable intellects ensure that it is better. The decision is not that of our "leaders" or "representatives," it is the decision of each and every one of us and what it is we do with our time, our money, our resources, our energy, and to where we pay our attention - each and every day. Let us define where it is we want our destiny to take us, and start taking one step at a time to get there.

Let us wait no longer for "saviors," but rather look in the mirror and realize, God, the Universe, or whatever higher power you believe in, has already endowed you with everything you need, in your heart, your mind, and within your hands to prevail in whatever noble pursuit you, or "we the people" choose.

Monedas George Clooney
Dec 30, 2011 - 11:36am

What's in the bag, Xtasy ?

Is that planting mulch, breakfast cereal or Canadian "cellar grown" marijuana ? Why do you want your ears pierced.....gonna hang a tin of CANNED BACON from each lobe ? Where you been ? Hiding from me ? Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Non Suggestive PTA Approved Flirting !

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:38am

@41; International Bacon Day is TODAY!

Thanks so much for the mention of soy bacon; sometimes I feel so lonely here in baconville.

BTW, it is pretty darn good. Goes for dogs and turkey too!

Best wishes to Turd and the denizens of Turdville for the new year; the best company to be in!

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:40am

I would love to see silver finish the year in the green.

According to Trader Dan silver closed 2010 @ $28.01 I would love to see a 2011 close above that level. With today's action, so far so good. You can view Dan's post here

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:41am
Bay of Pigs
Dec 30, 2011 - 11:48am

Gold set to close higher

for the 12th year in a row. London AM fix $1574.50. PM Fix will be higher than that.

Up over 12% for the year. Not great, but considering the level of negativity I see right now, not bad at all.

Cheer up, brighter days are ahead for gold and silver.

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:48am

I have seen more bacon on this site

in the past year than any other website! an unspoken tradition i suppose

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:50am


This is the WTIC OIL/SILVER CHART that shows that since August of this year, Oil has outperformed silver:

As the price of OIL heads higher in comparison to SILVER, costs are increased in mining sector. Thus, profits will fall in Q4 2011. Also, we can see that the ratio of oil to silver according to the RSI reading is the highest it has been in three years.

Something interesting is happening in precious metals markets today. Gold and Silver are slowly rising this morning even as the DOW JONES falls. This is an excellent sign. When we add the ramifications of the LOWEST Net Short Commercial positions on silver plus the high level of Short Positions on the US Dollar that the Commercials hold and now the WTIC vs SILVER chart, we can clearly see that the beginning of 2012 looks great for silver.

Lastly, if the Iranians decide to close down the Straits of Hormuz and block oil shipments, the price of Oil will head toward the moon. This will make the ratio much higher, but I would imagine silver and gold will skyrocket along with it.

Next Year will be quite interesting.

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:51am

It does not appear that you

It does not appear that you read point #3.

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:53am

Gold outperformed S&P 500

Gold outperformed S&P 500 again this year (is it 11 or 12 years in a row?). Stocks for the long run!

Book it

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:53am

Sears Closing

none so far in Illinois as Illinois allowed Sears to figuratively rape IL for tax incentives after Sears threatened to move out of IL due to higher corp income tax rates. Then Sears waited till the day after the tax incentive was approved to announce the store closings.

But there is not financial acumen in IL anyway so nobody bothered to see if Sears would be generating profits anyway, and if Sears would downsize HQ which created a bunch of nice jobs, and housing demand anyway.

Oh, the cause and effect of convoluted thinking in government

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:55am

last two and first two days...

...of almost any given month will show a reversal or strong movement in either the PM's or major market indexes.

That's what I've noticed and that's what I'm seeing...again.

This overall negative market sentiment could reverse and go the other way for no apparent reason or logic.

The Soros comment about the bearish gold market is the pivot point IMHO.

They zig while we zag. (not always)

Dec 30, 2011 - 11:56am

Just Another Reason...

That I stack gold and silver...

Driving through Bellevue, WA the other day and I kid you not, on every street corner through downtown were men holding signs that said:

Hard Rain
Dec 30, 2011 - 11:58am

Banksters Compensation

" Take JPMorgan Chase [JPM 33.0929 -0.3271 (-0.98%) ]. The Wall Street titan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, will earn just shy of $42 million this year for a bank that lost nearly a quarter of its market cap—or 23 percent—during the year,
Goldman Sachs
[GS 90.49 -0.52 (-0.57%) ] head Lloyd Blankfein's compensation was .7 million, while the investment bank he runs lost 46.4 percent of its market cap."

" That means the banking heads earned 50 to 100 times the average worker and did much better than their shareholders, who saw bank stocks as a group plunge about 26 percent this year."

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:02pm

Bacon; You're kidding me!!

Ultimate Dog Tease
Louie Mickey
Dec 30, 2011 - 12:03pm

@ Mickey- Sears- Who is raping who?

So when a state raises the tax rate so high that businesses decide to leave, that is the business raping the state?

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:08pm

geopolitics a la "the crow"


Much of what you wrote resonates as "true". But, like a quarter coin, the heads side of the coin is a true quarter and the tails side is also a true quarter.

I think that there is something far greater going on than what you posted with "Youth enamored with lofty, naive notions of "freedom" sold to them" . The NGO's and the crooks didn't get these young people into the streets. Something else did. That something else is what generated a "Tea Party Movement" here and the "Occupy" movement. Does it get corrupted and mis-directed at some point by nefarious forces. Maybe. We'll see what happens but candidate Ron Paul's rise in the polls is a product of that something else.

The game played by TPTB is not a "sustainable" blueprint. It has no integrity and is not a survivable blueprint towards the next millenium for humans.......let alone the next 50 years.

I don't look towards 2012 as the year that "fairs better". But the chaos promised by current events could lead to a shift in thinking and doing by the great masses of humans.

Your key point in your post is that it is the decisions and actions of each one of us. Maybe we are at a point where we are going to stop handing over "power", "thinking" and "decision making" to somebody else.

As I like to say, if 10,000 stand up to protest, the system will crush them. If 10 million of us take responsibility for running our lives, our balance with the planet, and our direction, then the system will simply dissolve away.

Like my dad always told me when I was fighting with my brother, "it takes two to tango". The oppressor does not exist without an oppressed.

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:11pm

IBD: International bacon day

Did someone say bacon?

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:18pm



Dow +6.1% Oil +9.1%
S&P +0.4% GOLD +8.4%
NASDAQ -1.5% EURO/USD -3.3%
NAS.-100 +3% USD/YEN -4.2%
DOW BEST McDonald's FTSE -6.7%
DOW WORST Bank of America STOXX
Dec 30, 2011 - 12:30pm

Last Fryday of the Year

Already? . . . Hit me then.

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:30pm


That video was hysterical! Reminds me of my dog.

Bacon!! Now I have to go have some! Still early here, sounds good for breakfast!

Is everyone feeling a little better now that that:

1. It is Bacon Day!

2. PMs are recovering!

Be strong in heart and stomach all. Happy New Year!

Dec 30, 2011 - 12:33pm


Dec 30, 2011 - 12:36pm

Friday? The EasyBeats

The Easybeats - Friday On My Mind
Be Prepared
Dec 30, 2011 - 12:38pm

Last Friday of the Year

Time to Reflect!

(1) Our government has done much to thwart the freedom of its citizens in 2011. I mention this first because it is only through these freedoms that I may post what I do on a board that can only exist without the passage of SOPA. If SOPA is signed into law, Turd would have to think long and hard about the legal ramifications of this sight. Why would the government allow dissent when their objective is for us to deaf, dumb, blind and ignorant? I try not to let the path of these actions consume me today, because my eyes can only take so much fire shooting out of them.

(2) Unemployment is and will only get worse. They show their charts, but can't point to the companies that are causing this growth. The Unemployement numbers are only getting better because more and more people are falling out of Unemployment into the dust bin of the statistics floor. If you don't qualify for unemployment or are no longer eligible for benefits, than you don't count as far as our government is concerned. The difference between these realities will only widen. Don't get me started on the Payroll Tax Extension by paying for it with a new Mortgage Fee....only government can make that connection work when housing is still crashing.

(3) Real prices for what we all must buy is set to move up at a real clip this coming year. Regardless on what camp you live or believe in... Inflation or Deflation.... it doesn't bode well for the standard of living.

There will be a ton of articles about predictions for 2012, but the one true fact is that what will come will not be what it once was! We won't see the America we grew up in for quite some time, if ever. This fact isn't doom and gloom, but a truth seeker trying to synthesize the ultimate reality as it becomes apparent. Don't get lost in measuring your life by society's yesterday sticks for they will matter little. Understand that you must live two lifes..... (1) The life that is hanging on the cusp of this society in the form as it exists today and (2) The life you must prepare for that will require to function under a different set of rules. I always say that this is "hard" because it is and you are kidding yourself to think otherwise. This isn't Y2k again where corporations tried to do the big scare to make us all buy more stuff. I challenge all of us to make 2012 the Year of "Plan & Execute".......continue with great clarity and don't be swayed.....take any step you can to move forward on the insurance that tomorrow will really require you to have with you.

Thank you, my friends, for all that I have had the privilege to learn from all of you and look forward to all that I will continue to gain from your gracious insights!

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