No Charts Today (updated with a chart!)

Wed, Dec 28, 2011 - 10:20am

Because it's all just nonsense. The euro just dropped for no real reason. The incumbent rise in the dollar caused the metals to take the elevator down about 5 floors. Silver has broken through 28 and looks now to be headed toward 26. Maybe by next week we can begin to assess the damage The Cartel is inflicting. Until then, all we can do is watch.

Here's your euro headline, from ZH:

I found this next article on Harvey's site last night. It was also highlighted on ZH yesterday. You absolutely must take time to read it today if you haven't already. It's a challenging read in that there's a lot of economic stuff that, if you're not patient with it, can glaze you over real fast. My advice is: be patient with it. Take your time and read it carefully.

Just a few more words about OI and the gradual demise of the Comex. First, another link. This one is from JS Kim. He covers many of the things we began discussing here about three weeks ago. It's a good summary, though, and worthy of your time:

As we speculated earlier this month, total OI in the metals continues to decline. Gold looks like it may soon fall under 400,000 contracts. Again, what I believe we are seeing is a trend of investors and traders simply walking away from the Comex. After MFGRAP, why would anyone in their right mind buy and hold gold and/or silver through that system? The drop in OI will be gradual but over time, as participation wanes, the Comex will simply become less and less significant in setting the physical price of the PMs.

We all have high hopes that PAGE will accelerate this demise. News yesterday caused great concern that the opening of the PAGE may be delayed or canceled.

I've tried to get some additional information on this but I'm not making much progress. It seems to me that this is a crackdown, by the Chinese government, on non-governmental exchanges and PAGE is, of course, a government-sponsored entity. Let's hope that all remains on track for a Q1 opening. I will, of course, pass along any additional information that I am able to gather.

 As I close, gold is at 1575 and silver is at 27.67. Yikes! I fear that there is more of this to come as The Cartel is clearly in charge this week. There simply aren't enough buyers to counter all of the Cartel selling pressure and, once stops get triggered below previous lows, prices can fall pretty fast. Silver made a low last January around 26.50. That would seem to be where it's headed now. I'm still hoping that 1550-1560 will hold as a bottom for gold. We'll see.

Hang in there. Keep the faith. TF


OK, I lied. I can't help myself. Here's a chart. Actually, it's a repost of a chart from last week.


What I was trying to demonstrate here was that history shows us how gold responds when it hits the main trendline. It has never sharply rebounded. Often, as denoted by the arrows, it skips along the line for 2-4 weeks before moving higher and away from the line. We are seeing the same thing play out today.

Of course this comes with a caveat. The MFGRAP may be changing the rules on this thing. IF gold drops convincingly through 1550 and heads toward 1500, all bets are off. IF, however, this primary trendline continues to support gold (as I think it will), then gold should stop somewhere between 1550 and 1560 before finally rebounding sometime in the next 2 weeks.

Obviously, we are at a critical moment in determining the future trend of paper gold. Watch things closely. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 179


bellyacre · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:21am



jaynutter · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:22am

first second!

first second!

sir · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:23am

Yearly silver chart

Silver ended 2010 at $30.91.

It is going to end 2011 well below that.

Who'd have thought that in April?!

sir · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:32am


And, believe me, if its at all possible for The Cartel to take gold down over the next three days and close it below its 12/31/10 close, they'll do it.

I just don't think they can but, given the total shunning of the Comex by buyers of physical, maybe they can.

Shill · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:35am
Dr G · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:35am

Hope you had a good

Hope you had a good Christmas, Turd.

Don't anybody sweat this price action. Start thinking in ounces of metal. Use the price only as a gauge when buying (which means the lower prices should put a smile on your face!!).

Be Prepared · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:36am
austrian12874 · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:37am


it is certainly disheartening watching silver tank like a bitch....i think we are going to 21

RedRover · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:37am

re: Keep The Faith

re: Keep The Faith.

Will do.

PaullyMoore · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:43am


Gold/Silver Ratio. If gold falls to 1500, that would imply a 26.32 price of silver at a 57 G/S ratio.

DaddyO · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:44am

A longer term view?

Watching the charts and reading the comments would lead one to believe its all about trading. Honestly speaking, I am less concerned with daily price fluctuations and more concerned with fundamentals and trends.

Economically speaking nothing has changed, period!

Debt is still king and CB's continue to inflict their poison on us.

I must say that my basis in the PM's is low, hence the markets have a long way to fall before my perceptions change.

Again I ask what has changed in the world that would lead one to believe that the current down trend in metals is permanent?

If you're a stacker it should be of little concern on the sell side and a perfect opportunity to add to the stack if you believe the longer term outlook is as bad as we think.


SilverHawk · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:49am


Get in the car and add to the stack!

gozer1 · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:49am

Keeping the faith

Keep the faith huh? Wow.... you're a funny guy.

PaullyMoore · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:51am


Pretty wide spread in terms of % loss between SLV and PSLV today. Last time I checked SLV was down 4.06% vs. PSLV down 2.69%.

Smiddywesson · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:52am

Keep the faith

I'm sorry for anyone who hasn't thought this out carefully and has a high cost basis, because they are no doubt in distress, but if we hold our physical, I don't see how we won't win in the end.

It doesn't matter what your cost basis is when the system is doomed. The very concept of cost basis assumes that what you are counting your gold in has value, will retain its value, or will exist at all when it's time to cash out.

This takedown would be very disconcerting if I had any faith at all that they could fix the system or muddle through another year, they can't. Have faith, I don't think the pain should last for more than a month or two, because conditions will force the central banker's hands. 

Dr G · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:52am

Good call, DaddyO. The final

Good call, DaddyO. The final shakeout is underway.

onealpha · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:53am

If it drops below my DCA I

If it drops below my DCA I may have to start buying silver again. Found myself looking at JM 100oz bars today. I always wanted one as a paperweight. I regret not buying it when it was $1200. For now,I will just sit tight and be right, and try to enjoy the show.

austrian12874 · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:53am

i feel like shit

fuck!!!!!!!!!!! this shit mutherfuck

kliguy38 · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:54am


Trading is a game of patience with an understanding of what the end game is. Holding a core of miners and Sprott with an accumulation process will save you a lot of worry. If you are fully vested then you just turn it all off and wait for the beat down to will. This is how the big boyz play. Its not a game for retail cheerleading "the collapse" will...but when you least expect it. You see......the game is played to screw the little guy. You just have to figure out how low they can take it and watch for tell tale miner days on red overall volume increasing mid will come just relax and do something more worthwhile like your family or helping some of these kids that are getting crushed by the "recovery"......little kids did nothing to deserve what they are going to endure.....if you can help one then you will gain more than all your silver gains will ever get

¤ · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:55am
DaddyO · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:58am


Very moving look at the little things that make a difference.


Change For A Dollar
Smiddywesson Dr G · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:59am

Final shakeout

You may be right Dr. G., but everyone should anticipate that the final shakeout will be the most violent one of all as TPTB won't have to worry about damage to the price suppression mechanism. If we see margin hikes, make your last purchases as quickly as possible.

tpbeta · Dec 28, 2011 - 10:59am

Keep the faith

I'm put in mind of the people who give away all their possessions because they think the world is going to end. My advice is buy the dips, sell the peaks, and trust the Turd and your own common sense to tell you which is which.

humbleprofits · Dec 28, 2011 - 11:00am

Dr. G

Did you load up on more BAC puts? I was waiting for $5.75-5.80. Oh well. Still have my others. Lower highs being put in. Do we finally have a serious break below $5 this time. Or will we get the helicopter full of money fly by to keep BAC propped up?

Chicken Little · Dec 28, 2011 - 11:00am
· Dec 28, 2011 - 11:01am

Re: Gold/Silver Ratio

As of right now gold is down 19.30 and silver is down 1.11. I find it interesting that the ratio of the drop is 17.38, very close to the 16:1 historical ratio. Just speculating...

ClinkinKY TF Metals Admin · Dec 28, 2011 - 11:06am

Nickel down nearly 40%?

I always peruse the prices on the charts page and noticed that nickel has fallen nearly $3.00, or approx 40%. Did everyone turn in their hoarded nickels or something? Wow.

pforth · Dec 28, 2011 - 11:09am

Can it ever go back up?

Silver is going down because everyone has left the futures market after MFGlobal and only the cabal is left. I don't see this changing. Are people going to suddenly regain confidence that their money won't be stolen?

Silver is going down because the margin's are too high and there's no leverage left. I definitely don't see this changing.

Silver is going down in sympathy with gold's negative lease rates... which can be turned negative again at any time, without any warning by the power's that be.

Silver is going down because of limitless shortselling. Shortselling that was recently loopholed forever by the CME.

Silver is going down because after MFGlobal, it is no longer going to be possible to "break the COMEX", like we've hoped for years.

Silver is going down because the power's that be want to maintain confidence in their fiat currencies and they can change the rules at any time to continue things.

Silver's going down because from a technical analysis basis it looks like it should... and a lot of people trade using technical analysis.

Damn... I can't see any of these factors changing. I can't see volume suddenly flooding back into the market when the holiday's are over. I can't see the buying of coins having much effect because the pipelines are too small. I can't see selling bullion directly to investors and bypassing the CME affecting the market on any time span short of multi-years (keep in mind that the biggest miners are all in the EE's pockets and won't be doing this any time soon). The new Asian exchange COULD change things but now it's on the rocks potentially.

I think we've reached a point where we will not see daylight again unless the entire system fails.... and even if that happens, it won't be like we log into our etrade accounts and see that we're up 50% on the day... we won't be able to log into anything for months, if ever. So there will be no "ah.. I did the right thing and look at all my paper profits in our future". That dream died with MFGlobal.

I've invested too heavily. It is very hard to watch the numbers on my accounts go down this rapidly. But at this point... fuck it... I'm not selling to the bastards. Maybe it's a mistake. Maybe I'm wrong... maybe we're all wrong about the way things are going to go. Lord knows I wouldn't have predicted in 2008 that things would last this long. The markets are humbling. For everything we think we know there are always 10 things that we don't. But this time, if I'm wrong, I've tied myself to the mast and I'm going down with the ship.

Shill · Dec 28, 2011 - 11:19am
· Dec 28, 2011 - 11:20am

What if...?

Everyone should take the time to watch this clip from my new hero, The Judge:

Pay particular attention to the final one minute. Powerful stuff.

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