Another Happy Tuesday

We speculated yesterday that today would be another "Happy Tuesday" where The Cartel relents and the metals rise as short positions are covered. Looking good so far. Before we get started, though, a holiday treat that the LTs introduced me to last year.

So, anyway, here's what we mentioned yesterday:

"Just a quick update this morning as not much has changed since Friday. In gold, it's quite clear that The Forces of Darkness and Evil would like to see gold stay under $1600 for a while longer. The CoT survey is tomorrow and it covers the period that begins with the beatdown day of last Wednesday. Though we clearly saw some bank short-covering late last week, something tells me that they'll want to cover more of their tracks before the close tomorrow. Therefore, let's see if they hold gold down for most of the day today before relenting. Tomorrow could/should be a "Happy Tuesday" as the EE covers and new spec buyers join the fray."

Again, the concept of "Happy Tuesday" is quite simple. On weeks (like this past week) where The Cartel has massively rigged a manipulation event, they like to "cover their tracks" prior to the next CoT survey. Those surveys are taken at the Comex close every Tuesday so...Tuesdays like today are typically UP days as The Cartel is covering some of their recently-established shorts. The rationale is: If the CoT report this Friday were to show a huge spike in the commercial short position, it would be just another obvious clue that Cartel was the primary driver of the selloff last week. However if, by the close today, you can buy back most of your shorts, you can paint the CoT to look like the commercial short position is relatively unchanged, week-to-week.

That said, take a look at these charts. Gold continues to improve and 1566 looks more like a double-bottom with each passing day. Now that it has finally been allowed to rise through 1600, it should continue to rally to the 1630-50 area. IF it can move through 1650, we will finally be able to declare with certainty that the bottom for the September-December, manufactured correction is in.

Silver, for all of the reasons frequently discussed here, continues to struggle. Maybe we can get Mr. Sprott to announce that he intends to fill his entire $1.5B shelf offering in Q1 of 2012? Absent, overwhelmingly positive, fundamental news, it's going to continue to be challenging for paper silver to sustain a rally.


Lastly, I've decided to continue posting my daily prognostications on the price of paper gold and silver. My simple TA is what prompted the start of all this last year and I know it's the primary reason why the site has grown so quickly. However, if you are trading, buying or holding precious metal within the current C/C/C system, you are literally begging to become a victim of it. I read an article yesterday by Kevin Williamson. In it, he likened the MFing Global theft to this: Imagine you are a customer of a bank that went bankrupt. Your only exposure at the bank were the valuables you held in a safe deposit box. At bankruptcy, you would rightly expect your valuables to be returned to you. Instead, creditor banks of the failed institution are allowed access to the safe where they dump the contents of all of the deposit boxes onto a big pile on the floor. Then the creditor banks pick through the pile, claiming for themselves whichever assets they'd like to keep. Only after the "community pile" is picked over are you, the rightful owner, allowed access to whichever assets remain. Banks being banks, you'd be lucky to be left with anything of value.

If you remain trustful of the current system, this is your likely fate. Keep in mind what Jim Willie told us last week: "Leave only the amount of money in the current system that you intend to, or are willing, to lose".

Please read these three items in succession and then decide which is the best course of action to take.

On that happy note, I will take my leave for the morning. Let's see where the action takes us today. I'll be keeping an eye on things and checking in whenever necessary.  TF


philly's picture


Another great day to be stacking!!!

murphy's picture

first to say first?

first to say first?

humbleprofits's picture

Thx Turd

I don't trade the paper, but I do love your views on the charts.  Glad to hear you will keep at it.

RedRover's picture

Keep up the great work, Turd!

Keep up the great work, Turd! Cheers!

Eric Original's picture

Miners kicking ass and taking names this morning!

GDX up 3.5%, GDXJ up 5.2%.  There's life in these crappy pieces of paper yet!

Patrancus's picture

Santa's stackin

silva under thudy, ho ho ho and anotha bag of 90%, merry christmas  

foxenburg's picture

MF Global

Were the bars of silver uniquely identifiable? I ask this because I recall a bankruptcy case in Johannesburg many years ago. A company selling fridges went bust. A lot of people had placed deposits on fridges - were awaiting delivery - and figured that therefore they had some sort of title to a fridge. They were wrong; they were classed as ordinary creditors.  But one chap had placed a deposit on a fridge with damage -  it had a big scratch and he negotiated a discount. The judge reasoned that because this fridge was identifiable, the buyer had a lien on it. I was just wondering how it works in American law.

On a happier note, I see thinks are bucking up!

Ferd Torgerson's picture


Thank you for your continued willingness to call trends and events as you see them.

There aren't many commentators in any field that display your courage day after day in putting your thoughts out for the world to see.

Wish we had more men and women in all walks of life with your integrity.  You enrich all of us - often financially but always intellectually.

And thanks for attracting such a sterling group to share their thoughts in Turdtown.


Brotha Bob's picture

Happy Tuesday

Happy Tuesday for sure. Glad I stacked last week.

Intereting to see price action in BAC. How long can the plunge protection Unit keep the price up. Uncle Warren can't be happy! But, hey, it's only paper right? Right?

Perfidious Albion's picture

Waiting for lift off..


beinki's picture

Just in time for Christmas

cpnscarlet's picture

@Brotha Bob - Damn straight!

@Brotha Bob - Damn straight! Today's rise is all for the benefit of BAC. Everyone in the EE wants to see this pig fly when it deserves to be bacon.

Dr G's picture

Happy Tuesday indeed! It's

Happy Tuesday indeed! It's always a good time to remember that the prices of the metals are 100% false. Once the system collapses, we will see the true value of that which we hold.

Bought some silver yesterday for $31.20 out the door, Maples, and it's been a while since I've paid that little for them. A truly great gift for me!

Endzeit's picture

Re: MF Global

Were the bars of silver uniquely identifiable?

There seem to be lots of confusion and misinformation about the MFGlobal stealing:

Not physical stuff and no contracts (shares, futures contracts, options) but cash from the customer's accounts was stolen and used as MFGlobal's cash.

tpbeta's picture

Is it the $ or is it the cartels

Gold in $

Gold in GB Pounds

Gold in $ versus gold in £ Sterling

diegeiro's picture


Thanks to all of the great posts on the past thread. Shill, your posts are the best! Thanks for posting again on the main.

I've been busy trying to get ready for Christmas as i am starting to think this will be the last normal Christmas, but this year's flu, or whatever it is, kicked my butt. I am finally getting over it.  I got it right after Thanksgiving and it has been a long haul so I haven't been posting much.

I realized that I still had a few odd lot bank bonds that were due to mature in the next few months. Citibank and Credit Suisse. I had not been paying close attention to these since I knew they were maturing very soon. I went ahead and sold, slightly under par. I had already sold Merrill Lynch bonds dated for 2019 over par awhile back.

I had thought that corporate bonds would keep value, but after the MFingGlobal theft, and learning that derivatives are senior even to bonds, I am questioning if my remaining corporate bonds are even remotely safe in the event of a global meltdown.

Any thoughts from the community about continuing to hold corporate bonds?

humbleprofits's picture


Spanish auction was surprisingly strong. 

Helps rally the markets. 

Rallying markets saves BAC . 

Wonder who was buying at the Spanish auction?

Last time it hit $5, BAC rallied to just shy of $6.  Ride the rally, then reinitiate the shorts/puts.  Same trade as three weeks ago.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Anybody want to take a stab


Anybody want to take a stab at how much $ had to be thrown at BAC today to get it to open at $5.04 and then trade higher, all the way to its current $5.14?

agrock's picture

I'll take a stab


Diamond's picture

Is Richard Russell Becoming Senile?

Richard Russell is confusing me, and scaring me of late.  

At KWN, he said last week that he's staying with gold and gold stocks until the end:

I Will Stay with Gold and Gold Stocks to the End

At today, he says to "Be out of ALL stocks, including mining stocks if you have not done so already":

The New America

WTF?  Does this mean that those of us who are down 30+% on our miners sell now?  Furthermore, for those of us who do hold mining stocks, does that not mean that we are therefore holding those assets within the C/C/C system, as Turd is warning us against doing, lest we become victims of it?


agrock's picture

Gold Surge Can Resume

A week ago, we touched upon the likelihood that the recent gold sell-off was driven primarily due to a quirk in liquidity provisioning in which gold plays a key role via its "forward lease rates", or the Libor-GOFO differential. Specifically, in "As Negative Gold Lease Rates Collapse, The Gold Sell Off Is Likely Coming To An End" we said, "In a nutshell, negative lease rates mean one has to pay for the "privilege" of lending out one's gold as collateral - a prima facie collateral crunch. The lower the lease rate, the greater the use of gold as a source of liquidity - and since the indicator is public - it is all too easy for entities that do have liquidity to game the spread and force sell offs by those who are telegraphing they are in dire straits and will sell their gold at any price if forced, to prevent a liquidity collapse." .....

firstsilver's picture

first, ignore Richard Russell

The guy has had a lot of health problems lately, which are difficult for someone his age.

Perhaps he's taking to mirroring Dennis Gartman, who gives 180-degree opposite statements and then takes credit for whichever turns out to be closest to the outcome.

Gartman was on Fast Money again yesterday saying he didn't call an end to the bull market, but was just neutral. Last week, he said gold's bubble was burst and he'd sold all his gold. Go figure.

My advice, find someone a little less schizoid than Russell or Gartman to follow, or better yet, be your own adviser.

tpbeta's picture

I'll take a stab...

None. The market rallied because of Euros being thrown about, not $.

humbleprofits's picture


Spain sold $4.941 billion Euros at auction.  Multiply by $1.31 = 6.47 billion USD.

That's my guess.

NW VIEW's picture


In the past years we have seen piles of stocks sold before the end of the year.  When I look at my gains and losses over this year, I do not need any more losses.  With the lack of employment, lack of capitol gains from sales of property, lack of gains from small businesses, lack of state sales & B.&O. taxes, this government is going to be on life support when they count the small amount of revenue in April.  I think I can hear those presses even from four months distance. 

treefrog's picture

happy tuesday in sweeden


Sweden legalizes and regulates cannabis

Stockholm, December 19 - The Swedish Parliament has approved a law which will regulate the growing, usage and trade of cannabis. This is according to the Health and Social Services of Sweden, Jonas Grönhög, who was quoted, "We don't want to make the same mistakes which the USA has done, we do not want to be prohibitionists because the war on drugs has been lost long ago. It is better to prevent marginalization of young people than jail them for soft drugs usage which are comparatively harmless. If we allow the sale of alcohol, there is no reason to ban the soft drugs no longer."

Cannabis products are going to be available in the pharmacies in Sweden as non-prescription medicine since April 20 in 2012 and customers more than 18-year-old can buy 10 grams at once.  Growing for personal usage will be tolerated up to 200 grams of dried marijuana and larger amounts stay illegal. It is likely that this will target the Police resources on more serious crime, especially on organized crime, drug trafficking and trafficking in human beings which have been increased for lack of the Police resources in recent years.

Source: 420 Dagbladet, Stockholm, December 19 2011


Turd Ferguson's picture

declining dollar helps


But movements in the dollar do not explain how I was able to accurately predict this rally over 24 hours ago.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Calling the bottom?

It would be pretty funny if Gartman nailed the bottom once again.

'Bargain' gold spurs buying spree in Dubai

“We saw our second-best single day last Thursday and I am encouraged to applaud our customers, who obviously view the prices under $1,600 as a bargain,” said Schubert.

Turd Ferguson's picture

The latest video from Stockholm?

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