Following Script

Fri, Dec 16, 2011 - 10:09am

I think we should all be very encouraged by the action overnight and into this morning. In terms of the decline, the bottom and the nascent recovery, things sure seem to be following script quite nicely.

The simple fact that Wednesday's low in Feb12 gold was 1567.60 was followed by yesterday's low of 1566.60 is enough to make me grin and chuckle a bit. I've consistently stated 1550-60 would be the bottom but that I could be off a little in that I'm just eyeballing things and drawing them out with a ruler and a sharpie. Coming within $7 is definitely close enough. Now, the key is, what happens next?

Of course I could still be proven dead wrong. Gold could plummet today or next week and crash right through 1550. However, I'm highly confident that it won't. There's a reason the decline stopped there. It would take some serious, fundamental changes to drive price much lower.

Late yesterday, I gave you $1600 as an important level to watch today and next week. Lo and behold, just as price surged through 1600 a few hours ago, dramatic capping measures were employed by the Forces of Darkness and gold was pressed back. I have a last of 1586. Silver was making a move on $30, too. Clearly, The Cartel does not want gold to immediately snap back and that's OK. Taking time and building a stout foundation and base is an essential precedent for the explosive price moves I see coming in Q1 of 2012.

As mentioned yesterday, I expect this base-building "project" to last 2-3 weeks. Some folks disagree, most notably this report that was posted to ZH earlier today. Don't get me wrong. If gold reverses here and quickly moves sharply higher, that would be just fine and dandy with me. I just don't expect it to play out that way.

OK, that's all for now. I'll check in again later, once we see what the day brings. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 16, 2011 - 10:12am
Be Prepared
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:15am


That's all I can say....

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:16am


I am Turd!

Ferd Torgerson
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:17am

Been quite a while . .

. . . since I was Furst.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:21am


Dollar is failing B/O of double top.

Brotha Bob
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:23am

Woke up this morning

Woke up this morning and what did I see green, and silver, and gold under the Christmas tree. Whipee!

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:32am


I have cash!

Just got off the phone with RJ O'brien. Apparently, about 2/3 of my cash was generously "released" by the trustee last evening. My funds will be available for trading by Wednesday of next week.

As you might imagine, I'll be taking this "found money" and buying some out-of-the-money gold calls. I mean, why the heck not? I never expected to get a single penny back.

Eric Original
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:34am

TGIF to all.   It's feeling

TGIF to all. It's feeling Christmasy around here today. Tom and Jerry's anyone?

Be Prepared
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:35am

Gold will Soar in 2012

Don't Be Fooled, Gold Will Soar In 2012

I am now bullish on gold and silver based on gold's current sell-off, the immediate incessant berating of the precious metal by pundits on CNBC and several other reasons. Silver is highly correlated to gold. In October 2008 the precious metal plummeted 18% and subsequently rebounded 23% over the next two months. I accurately predicted this move in an article I wrote on Aug 24th. The following is a brief description of gold’s current performance, my reasons why precious metals are a buy followed by my top seven precious metal picks.

Top Five Reasons Why Precious Metals Will Soar In 2012

  1. This is the eleventh 10% correction for gold since 2003. Gold has always bounced back and soared higher each time. Gold has been up 10 out of the last 10 years.
  2. A major portion of the drop can be attributed to a well-known year end occurrence regarding gold's performance in December. Gold market makers have closed up shop for year end. The big gold commodity funds have closed up for the year and have essentially stopped buying.
  3. Many hedge funds and major market participants have had to liquidate their gold positions recently due to the global liquidity crunch created by the eurozone debacle. Therefore, this is not an outright fundamental issue with gold but a temporary technical phenomenon that will soon dissipate.
  4. Recently many central banks of emerging markets lowered their interest rates, consequently lowering the cost of borrowing. In most cases inflation will outstrip the yield on savings, creating negative real interest rates. Thus, investors will take flight to precious metals and protect their wealth from devaluation.
  5. The relative strength index on spot gold remains below 30 indicating an oversold market which could attract buying.


Be Prepared
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:37am


I'm sooooo glad that you got some money back from MFing Global.... I just wish it was all of your money.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:37am

Good to hear Turd!

Good news indeed.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:38am

Still here

Last few days I've been spending more time reading news than posting, but the sad thing is after reading all the posts here, there's nothing more I have to add that hasn't been said before. I only get a warm feeling seeing some things over at ZH that I speculated on a few days ago - gold bounceback in Feb/Mar after some of these leases start to expire.

Aisde from that, found some of the discussions about nuke power interesting, but it is a lost cause after Fukishima until rolling blackouts in CA run into days in duration. Too bad, especially when the answers to getting rid of waste was so easy. Too bad the Japanese never figured out what the French knew for decades. But that's another story.

Trying to put a good face on everything despite the loses this week. See y'all later. Off to other things most of the day - Mrs. Scarlet's (Harmony Angel) b-day.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:39am

Good Lord, Turd, you are

Good Lord, Turd, you are going to take the money barely just won back from the collapsing system and throw it back in?

What do you think you are doing? It's like suffering burn wounds from a fire, going the hospital to get partly healed up, then charging back into the fire again.

Just buy physical.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:48am

If TS(does not)HTF next summer...

... this is what I'll be doing with friends for at least some of the legs. Anyone interested, let me know. We did it from London to Johannesburg a couple of years ago.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:52am

very happy to see

most of your money back......that bothered me.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:53am

Hey Turd......

Since it's "found money" i recommend leaving the casino and just spend it on's one thing to have money stolen from you once......but twice? :)

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:55am

Good point

This is why no one has ever said "there's goes smart ole Turd".

I handy, dandy AGE and 10 ASEs, please.

Bay of Pigs
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:55am

Good point

from tmosley.

If we have learned anything recently (and I learned a very long time ago), is that the futures and options markets are crooked and fraudulent. They are not transparent nor are they trustworthy. Any integrity they ever did have is gone in the wake of MF Global collapse. The posts last night by kliguy38 and StrongSideJedi showed that in spades.

Buy the physical Turd, and avoid that nonsense. You want to gamble, go to Vegas and have fun. Your odds are better there.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:55am

That chart reminds me of something....

"This is your brain..................and this is your brain on hyper-rehypothecation!"

Ferd Torgerson
Dec 16, 2011 - 10:56am

Turd, think before you buy those calls

Why, just yesterday, CNBS had a graphic up saying that banks were "over-sold" and were set to "out-perform". Imagine how many shares of BAC you could buy with those bucks.

Dec 16, 2011 - 10:58am

The Council of Governors is a

The Council of Governors is a group of 10 state governors of the United States. The group was established in January 2010 in order to strengthen the partnership between federal and state governments in protecting the nation against all manner of threats.

Executive Order 13528-- Establishing Council of Governors | The White House

Executive Order 13528, signed by President Barack Obama on January 11, 2010, as recommended by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 which was passed by the 110th Congress and signed by President George W. Bush on January 28, 2008.

Ahh yes...GO TEAM!

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:00am

last two posts by turd

i really like it when turd draws his graphs and it is a positive feeling to the post obviously I know though on the other side of the coin it can't be positive all the time btfd as in now!!!!!!!!

Be Prepared
Dec 16, 2011 - 11:00am

Goldman's Favorite Charts....

This Chart kinda of reminds me of how I used to drive my hot wheels cars around the kitchen floor.....

They say the worm has turned.... I say that it has stalled and looking to fall back into "Negative Growth worsening" ...look at the months of Jun thru Nov they are clustered together. That doesn't look like any break out or turn of trend. It's really the head of a snake...ready to eat it's own tail.

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:00am

Happy Birthday Mrs Scarlet

Hey, I know you have a right to look mad as your husband has blown all your money on gold, but maybe for your birthday he has bought something gold for you to wear. BTW are your friends married?

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:01am
Dec 16, 2011 - 11:03am

But. remember this..

If the markets tanks because there's no fuel from QE...then there will be a liquidation party. Still have cash. Be balanced, be wise..this are very stressful times and any blackswan could hit..which would take us down..not that it will but be prepared...

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:06am

I wanted to thank you all

I wanted to thank you all for the great response to my "Boat Trip" photoshop the other day- and thanks to Big Chief TF for putting it at the top of yesterday's post! I have been doing these mainly to amuse my friends at The SpeakEasy forum:

I would encourage folks who haven't stopped by to pull up a chair, grab a cold one, and hang out there occasionally- very nice place and all are welcome.

If you get a kick out of these, more SpeakEasy pics here:

Christmas at The Speak:

Group occupies G20 meetings:

Old and new friends at The Speak:

Happy Hour:


I have also done a series of these as Thank You's to the great folks at Pailin's Trading Corner including "The Charge" :

Others for the Trading Corner here:

Finally, I am very sorry that a few folks felt left out of the Boat Trip- I promise that was NOT my intention. I have found you can only fit so many avatars into these things and I inevitably fill my available space and run out of time. Please don't take it personally- but I would note that by my count, to date I have included 73 individual Turdite's avatars into these things, so I am doing my best.

Will be taking a break on these for a while, but will try to do a few more in the Spring. Good luck today, my friends!

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:11am

"Ranting Andy"

Provided this info from James McShirley yesterday. Good stuff:

Below is some QUALITY commentary regarding the drop in PAPER gold and silver leverage, from my good friend James McShirley of GATA. James is one of the few "manipulation experts" having replicated the depth of research I have, and a fantastic guy to boot. James is a multi-decade lumber trader, and started researching PAPER gold manipulation after watching it trade dramatically differently, over a period of years, from the freely-traded lumber market.

As always the corrupt CME never lowers margins whenever gold and silver prices are collapsing. At today's $28.53 low for silver the futures leverage is now a paltry 5.83-1. The gold leverage has shrunk to 13.66-1. The high margin/ low leverage not only serves the interest of cabal shorts unable to deliver physical, but probably exacerbates selling by former MF Global clients already in crisis. The silver leverage is as low now as low as any time that I can find in available data. The wicked and corrupt nature of derivative markets has reached Machiavellian proportions. Judging by their terror of gold rising there must be something BIG right around the corner.

It is no coincidence that whenever ANY major financial institution or brokerage collapses the result is ALWAYS a subsequent collapse in precious metals, along with commodities in general. Gold has plummeted 10% since the MF crisis began the weekend of October 28th, much of it the past 3 days. When failed trading firms are taken over by cabal players paper derivatives are always sold to create an illusion of PM weakness. EVERY single collapse, including the Asian crisis, LTCM, Enron, Refco, Lehman, AIG, EU nations, and MF Global has resulted in gold and silver getting hammered. The message is always the same: gold is a terrible idea whenever paper assets are in crisis.

Savvy investors worldwide are now scooping up the incredible physical PM bargains being afforded by a corrupt derivatives scheme. The majority of U.S. citizens will remain clueless to the end. That's the power of the MSM inflation expectation message. If the viciousness of this attack is any indication 2012 should be a really big year for physical PM owners. Sub-$1,600 gold will one day look as ridiculous as the 1999 "Brown's Bottom" at $250. Maybe this one will be known as Corzine's Bottom. It fits, Corzine is a proven ass.

Be Prepared
Dec 16, 2011 - 11:12am

@Shill - I followed your link and it also gave me this....

Expanding our “If You See Something, Say Something™” Message to the Hispanic Community

Posted by Janet Napolitano on December 12, 2011 at 02:31 PM EST

Today I joined law enforcement partners from the Hispanic American Police Command Officers Association, the National Latino Peace Officers Association, and the Washington, D.C. Metropolitan Police Department to launch our Spanish-language Public Service Announcements (PSAs) in support of the “If You See Something, Say Something™” campaign. At DHS, we often say that homeland security begins with hometown security. It begins with our state and local law enforcement partners, businesses, communities, and individual citizens all working together to identify potential threats and report suspicious activity to the appropriate authorities.

It says something really creepy that they have to Trademark the Spy on Your Neighbor Saying.....NDAA...Patriot Act...this ends well....Reallly.

Dec 16, 2011 - 11:16am

I fear

that BisSis "Chaz" Napolitano may, in fact, be the anti-christ.


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