Well...

228
Wed, Dec 14, 2011 - 9:37pm

...that was interesting, wasn't it? A long and crazy day but I do have a few things to add.

First of all, I thought I should re-post this in case you missed it earlier. Thank you to "Pining" for the fantastic piece of Photoshop art:

My two favorite parts are Atlee giving everyone the finger and the hot chick jumping off the bow.

In case you missed the updated charts I posted at about 4:00, here they are again. I can re-use them because prices haven't changed much in the time since. However, I have a feeling that that's about to change.

You may have seen this earlier at ZH. Its a new technical summary from Citi. In it, they claim that gold should bottom at around 1550 but still trade to around 2300 next year. Gee...where have I heard that before???

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/citi-predicts-gold-3400-next-two-years

ZH also posted the stock market section of the same Citi report. It included this vehwy scawey chawt. Yikes!

Next....Never fear, the CFTC is here! What a Cartoon Corral these morons are...

https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-mfglobal-cftc-idUSTRE7BD20L20111214

Ole Eric King was hard at work during the downdraft today. First, he interviewed Santa and then he tracked down Egon von Greyerz. Both will be required listening when they are finally posted in their entirety. Until then, here are links to partial transcripts:

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Jim_Sinclair_-_Why_Gold_Was_Smashed_Today_%26_Whats_Next.html

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/14_Von_Greyerz_-_Currency_Collapse,_Hyperinflation_%26_Social_Unrest.html

Jeff Nielson has chimed in with a terrific column that discusses negative lease rates and Libyan gold. I find all of the attention today to negative lease rates rather interesting as I'm pretty sure TFMR was this first place to notice them and warn of impending doom last week. Not that that's any great honor. It's kind of like being the first White Star lookout to have seen the iceberg.

https://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=23385:the-bankers-new-gold&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=131

Lastly, just a word or two about today's open interest numbers. (Remember, the numbers we got today reflect the changes from yesterday.) Two very important items.

  • The Feb11 OI only fell by about 500 contracts. When added to the 1500 contract decline of Monday, Feb11 OI is only down 2000 contracts while Feb11 gold is down about $53. I would have expected a much greater drop in OI. What this confirms for me is that there are very few human holders of Feb11 contracts. Almost all of the Feb11 contract holders are WOPR on one side and the sub-human EE on the other. If this is true, the likelihood of finding a bottom near 1550-1560 just increased quite a bit. What I'm driving at is: I feared that the MFGRAP would permanently scare away buyers of paper Comex contracts. However, if the spec long position is almost entirely WOPRs, they'll simply flip back over to "buy mode" as soon as the technical picture improves. IF gold bottoms as I hope, we should soon be able to buy paper with confidence and expect a handsome rally.
  • Dec11 gold continues to get new open interest. We added 137 brand new contracts yesterday...all in the face of a selloff? When added to Monday's gains, we've got almost 650 new contracts this week! That's amazing!! There is clearly an effort afoot to jump the queue and get some gold delivered this month and not wait for February. No, I don't think that the gold Comex will collapse from the weight of this. Not this month, at least. However, this potentially speaks volumes about the utter lack of bulk, physical gold available in the world. Very, very interesting and must be watched.

OK, that's all for now. Be on the lookout for some sharp volatility overnight and tomorrow as the metals search for a bottom. Let's see how today's lows hold up and keep our fingers crossed. Regardless, keep the faith and be happy. You have chosen to sock away savings in real, true money. Do not be discouraged by the blatant and shameful price manipulation tactics of The Cartel. The precious metals are going to have extraordinarily strong, fiat-relative performance in 2012. Soon, the pain of today will be long since forgotten.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  228 Comments

Peaches Marie
Dec 15, 2011 - 2:14am

Only-Charts-Matter followup

On the previous thread, "only-charts-matter", Snaws said [quote] "Charts are wrong more often than chance. Chart reading is after the fact. ...most have been wrong for decades! ...you cannot trade on ifs and whens. You invest in the NOW".

That is absolutely wrong and I think Turd would agree or he would not be giving us charts on a daily basis.

On page 3 at 1:55pm with the S&P March contract trading around 1230, I responded to Snaws and said in part... "Watch what happens when the S&P futures (ES) March hit 1198, and it will (possibly later today but maybe tomorrow). We should get a very tradable bounce from there." Well guess what. The March contract hit and immediately turned on 1198 (not a penny lower) at 23:40, and is rebounding now. It happened at a time when volume was light, or the bounce may have taken off with more gusto, but nevertheless it was tradable. (4 contracts, my usual size to initiate a position is up $1300 at 1204.50 as I type and I have stops in place). I think that proved my point.

Actually charts are all you need to trade if you know how to read them (forget head and shoulders, they are everywhere and can be seen in one way or another on a majority of charts if you look at all time frames. One $1300 trade per day works out to $325K per year.

I concluded the post with... "As for gold... next place to buy (per my chart) is 1459.40 and if it breaks 1458, then buy at 1424.80. Jot those numbers down to test your anti-Charts theory." Now to clarify a bit, there will be many bounces and trades between here and there (and the charts will tell me when and where as each is approached), but if you want a good price to Stack physical, those are the best entrys I see coming up.

exiledbear
Dec 15, 2011 - 2:20am

Tyler - about dreams

Everthing you "see" in a dream is actually you trying to render an alien datastream in terms you can comprehend. Imagine you're an engine like Songsmith, and you're being fed a datastream like this -

Johannes Kreidler - Charts Music - Songsmith fed with Stock Charts

They're really just charts of stock prices, but to you, it looks like music. To someone else, it's actually stock prices. Someone could say something about the old Hindu elephant parable here too...

justin99975
Dec 15, 2011 - 2:22am

survivalwstyle

awesome, huge pic there.

i buy bit by bit, and grabbed a 1/4 oz. today at the LCS. and that was a big purchase for me.

usually stack the silver, so with the sale, i thought i should diversify a little.

with the way the overnight is goin, i'll be grabbing more silver tmrw.

going to get a 96 and 97 ASE- the years my boys were born, and put them in their stockings for x-mas.

take care

j

exiledbear
Dec 15, 2011 - 2:31am

While we're getting woo woo here

Has anyone else been seeing "444", "555" and "55555" regularly? This is where my knowledge ends and all I can do is guess as to what and why. It means something, I just don't know what.

AinT
Dec 15, 2011 - 3:18am

Patterns in random numbers

The spotting of patterns and sequences in random everyday events is one of the well recognized symptoms of cognitive bias.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

I believe the specific one is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

I find that an awareness of these biases helps give me an objective view when I am looking at data. The tendency for the human brain to do strange things like this is also, I think, truly fascinating so I thought I'd share.

G00dfella
Dec 15, 2011 - 3:39am

floor

I think this was the floor. Now back to 35. (sentiment is really bad now)

Senseosensei
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:21am

At days like this...

and with all the so called analysts in the media trying to explain the price drops, i tend to just close my eyes, ignore all possible explanations which confuse the hell out of me, and go back to analyzing why i bought silver and gold to begin with.

I bought it as a store of wealth and as an insurance policy.

I didn't buy to get rich riding the price changes within months.

Furthermore nothing has changed like Turd says so eloquently. All the fundamentals are the same, no let me correct myself, they have improved for our case because the world/economy/politics have deteriorated.

Regarding the law that just passed to lock any American up without a trial if they want to: i would say, come to Europe, but since we have our fair share of the sh!t that might not be a good idea

nathan1234
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:56am

I worry for this blog

Once Obummer signs this

"Guantánamo Forever?" - Congress Passes $662 Billion Defense Bill, Aka The NDAA

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/congress-passes-662-billion-defense-bill-...

Turd - see if you can locate your server in some other country quickly

Stratajema
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:16am

yeeehah!!!

Nice job JP Morgue! Do you think those pussy paper sellers can slam the gold price to $1,480 by the first week in January? I think so... they need to slam it ahead of the big collapse in Europe.

Smash gold and silver into the basement. Smash it without mercy. I don't care, I am invigorated by the sell off. I'm older now, I can't be fooled like the twenty something clueless wonders on Wall Street. I've seen the videos where they print money effortlessly while mining for gold and silver is brutal with unpredictable results.

The BRIC nations are gonna gobble up massive amounts of physical gold during this beat down.

Stratajema
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:49am

U.S. Treasuries

Who is buying U.S. Treasuries at 0% that are needed to fund the $1.7 trillion deficit? Russia? Europe? LOL OK Japan, but they have to print money to do it. I am growing tired of the debt ponzi scheme.

They can play with the gold price all they want but someday they won't be able to play with it any longer. As long as real interest rates are negative, deficits are unconstrained, and there are constant wars to fund with debt, then gold will be in a bull market.

boatman
Dec 15, 2011 - 6:30am

@Stratajema

u got it nailed, man.

this will be THE 'year of the toilet paper'.....followed by next year.

Stratajema
Dec 15, 2011 - 6:51am

December Open Interest

Turd said "Dec11 gold continues to get new open interest. We added 137 brand new contracts yesterday...all in the face of a selloff? When added to Monday's gains, we've got almost 650 new contracts this week!"

Perhaps someone is covering their gold short position where they contractually have to cover by repaying with physical gold not paper gold. In other words, an off-Comex contractual agreement between two parties and one of the parties is using the Comex as a vehicle to getting the physical gold to cover their position. This makes sense in light of the big move down in the gold price.

foxenburg AinT
Dec 15, 2011 - 6:57am

cognitive bias

Wow, that's an interesting link to the list of cognitive biases. The "wishful thinking" bias caught my eye! I sure hope not.

boatman
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:07am

the break to the downside of the channel

would be at 1400 if it did the same % as it broke the UP channel in sept.

if your 'all in' it will not matter by may

if you are not its just a sale

Shill
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:20am

A follow up post to the Obama

A follow up post to the Obama to approve indefinite detention and torture of Americans post.

If anyone is interested in reading the bill, it's here: https://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h1540/text
It seems the language in sections 1031 and 1032 prohibits them from applying the power of military internment to any person arrested inside the United States, which kind of contradicts what that article posted is saying. Not that I am agreeing with this bill, but I figured I'd point it out.

It says the requirement to detain does not apply it does not say it won't apply what it is doing is making it discretionary.

Either way I read the bill and its your typical political spin trash as usual.

Be well

Last Rebel
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:29am

@Tyler, Very in depth there.

@Tyler,

Very in depth there. Like BSD I also thought of Eph 6 and the armor of God. Katie Rose posted some good insight as well. You mentioned a helmet and that nailed me right in the face.

6:17 And take the helmet of salvation, and the sword of the Spirit, which is the word of God

You are definitely being called. Blessings to you in your journey.

A thread on this would be good as I'm sure there are quite a few others here that could contribute.

tpbeta
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:40am

Wish I understood lease rate graphs

Any kind turdite like to have a go at explaining this chart? I see that most lease rates are negative at the moment but I obviously don't 'get' how to read them, despite their current importance. What are those two huge dips?

https://www.kitco.com/charts/g_leaserates.html

Shill
Dec 15, 2011 - 7:56am
opticsguy
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:00am

Miranda

so, do the police get to decide whether a crime is a terrorist act or not? Currently, if I shoplift and got arrested, they would read me my rights. What if they decided shoplifting was a terrorist act (I hope they do that with copper theft)?. Do the cops cuff you, throw you in the back of the car, and take you to a different jail (at the nearest military base?). Or is it a bullet in the brain right there? Or torture first, then the bullet?

You can see where this can be a slippery slope. When do political "opponents" become "terrorists"?

sixdollarsilver tpbeta
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:14am

lease rates

Market forces are generally present in PM lease rates, therefore supply and demand should determine the rate. The two huge dips you see here though basically represent the artificial lowering of the rate by the entities who 'own' gold deciding they want lots of cash NOW. This is done to drive up demand.

If I had a portfolio of rental houses that went for 1000 per month, but I needed lots of cash now, I could lower the rate to 500 and have them all rented pronto. If I wanted to stop people buying houses, I could pay them to live in my rentals.

It seems both of these outcomes have just occurred in the gold market.

There's more to it, but that's about as succinct as I can get at this hour.

Fortinbras
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:15am

@Opticsguy...

"When do political "opponents" become "terrorists"?"

As soon as it is signed into law... that's the problem. We will officially be a "nation of men" rather than a "nation of laws."

This goes right to the heart of what I said regarding killing Al-Alawaki when I said, "what happens when the enemy is "domestic" and the oath of military members is "all enemies, foreign and domestic" and then throw in this week's article about CBP Predators being used to help local law enforcement...

It's bad... really, really, really bad.

Louie
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:16am

Yesterday was a good day to fondle my stack

Yesterday I was scavenging LCSs and had one owner tell me something that I knew was not correct about the weight of some coins. So when I came home I pulled my easy access stash up from her hiding place to weigh some coins. I had forgotten how heavy she was. My how she has put on some weight in the past year! Even though the price of gold is down $400 and silver is down $20 from their recent highs it was a lot of fun to dump all that shiny out on the table and play with it. I weighed and measured a few coins, counted and stacked to get coins some better organized, then lowered it all back down to the hiding place.

The paper price may have gone down yesterday, but my stack did not lose a single gram.

It was really nice to feel the solid weight of real money.

tpbeta
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:20am

@sixdollarsilver

Thanks. Appreciate the info. So who decided to lower the rates all at the same time? Was it one bank or is there a collusion mechanism? Why did they go straight back up again?

Boardwalk
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:22am

It's TF not Atlee. . . .

. . . .giving the finger in Pining's photo. Look at the scale and perspective of the arm giving the MF salute. If that's Atlee's arm, he's Popeye and he just ate a can of spinach. Also note the color of the jacket, it matches TF's tux.

Way to go TF a FUBM on the front page, above the fold!

(cpn, the boat sailed without you 'cuz your train was late. Couldn't wait as it was only a 3 hour tour ya know. ;-)

Shill
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:22am

Habeas corpus is one of the

Habeas corpus is one of the fundamental tenants of law in a democracy.


Without it we have tyranny.


You better shut up
You better not cry
Better not protest
I’m telling you why
Indefinite Detention is coming to town!

They’re making a list
They’re checking it twice
They’re gonna tell you
If you’re a terrorist or nice
Indefinite Detention is coming to town!

They know if you are sleeping
They know if you’re awake
They know if you’re a sheep or not
So be a sheep for your own sake!

Oh….
You better shut up
You better not cry
Better not protest
I’m telling you why
Indefinite Detention is coming to town!
Indefinite Detention is coming to town!

Shill
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:33am

8:30aQ3 current account

  1. 8:30a

    Q3 current account deficit $110.3 bln vs $124.7 bn

  2. 8:30a

    BREAKING

    Weekly U.S. jobless claims fall 19,000 to 366,000

    1. 8:30a

      U.S. wholesale prices rise 0.3% in November

    2. 8:30a

      Core wholesale prices increased 0.1% last month

    3. 8:30a

      Wholesale prices up 5.7% over past 12 months

opticsguy
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:37am

at a train station in Jena, Germany

they have a plaque which roughly translated said that "Jews, gypsies (Roma) and political malcontents" were boarded onto trains heading East.

"Malcontents" could apply to pretty much anyone, at least it did to Goebbels.

Boardwalk
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:39am

Fortinbras

Regarding the military oath. I don't think it will ever come to a US soldier making an ethical decision about whether or not to fire on a fellow American.

The Posse Comitatus Act that prevents the deployment of the US military on US soil for law enforcement purposes notwithstanding, the US/Canada security agreements call for bilateral military assistance in times of domestic crisis.

There may well be Canadian soldiers on the streets of the US at the next natural disaster on the scope of Katrina, or if the GFC deteriorates into persistent , violent civil unrest. Doing so circumvents the Posse Comitatus Act, as well as any personal dilemma a soldier may have regarding firing upon their neighbor.

Been looking for supporting documentation, but right now all I have is memory of CBC nightly news covering it for 30 seconds when it was passed into law 2 or 3 years ago.

If someone can decisively either corroborate or dispel this assertion, please do so.

Shill
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:41am
Louie
Dec 15, 2011 - 8:45am

@ Pining's picture

I hope someone throws a rope to Xty- I would hate to set sail without her!

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