Wed, Dec 14, 2011 - 9:37pm

...that was interesting, wasn't it? A long and crazy day but I do have a few things to add.

First of all, I thought I should re-post this in case you missed it earlier. Thank you to "Pining" for the fantastic piece of Photoshop art:

My two favorite parts are Atlee giving everyone the finger and the hot chick jumping off the bow.

In case you missed the updated charts I posted at about 4:00, here they are again. I can re-use them because prices haven't changed much in the time since. However, I have a feeling that that's about to change.

You may have seen this earlier at ZH. Its a new technical summary from Citi. In it, they claim that gold should bottom at around 1550 but still trade to around 2300 next year. Gee...where have I heard that before???


ZH also posted the stock market section of the same Citi report. It included this vehwy scawey chawt. Yikes!

Next....Never fear, the CFTC is here! What a Cartoon Corral these morons are...


Ole Eric King was hard at work during the downdraft today. First, he interviewed Santa and then he tracked down Egon von Greyerz. Both will be required listening when they are finally posted in their entirety. Until then, here are links to partial transcripts:



Jeff Nielson has chimed in with a terrific column that discusses negative lease rates and Libyan gold. I find all of the attention today to negative lease rates rather interesting as I'm pretty sure TFMR was this first place to notice them and warn of impending doom last week. Not that that's any great honor. It's kind of like being the first White Star lookout to have seen the iceberg.


Lastly, just a word or two about today's open interest numbers. (Remember, the numbers we got today reflect the changes from yesterday.) Two very important items.

  • The Feb11 OI only fell by about 500 contracts. When added to the 1500 contract decline of Monday, Feb11 OI is only down 2000 contracts while Feb11 gold is down about $53. I would have expected a much greater drop in OI. What this confirms for me is that there are very few human holders of Feb11 contracts. Almost all of the Feb11 contract holders are WOPR on one side and the sub-human EE on the other. If this is true, the likelihood of finding a bottom near 1550-1560 just increased quite a bit. What I'm driving at is: I feared that the MFGRAP would permanently scare away buyers of paper Comex contracts. However, if the spec long position is almost entirely WOPRs, they'll simply flip back over to "buy mode" as soon as the technical picture improves. IF gold bottoms as I hope, we should soon be able to buy paper with confidence and expect a handsome rally.
  • Dec11 gold continues to get new open interest. We added 137 brand new contracts yesterday...all in the face of a selloff? When added to Monday's gains, we've got almost 650 new contracts this week! That's amazing!! There is clearly an effort afoot to jump the queue and get some gold delivered this month and not wait for February. No, I don't think that the gold Comex will collapse from the weight of this. Not this month, at least. However, this potentially speaks volumes about the utter lack of bulk, physical gold available in the world. Very, very interesting and must be watched.

OK, that's all for now. Be on the lookout for some sharp volatility overnight and tomorrow as the metals search for a bottom. Let's see how today's lows hold up and keep our fingers crossed. Regardless, keep the faith and be happy. You have chosen to sock away savings in real, true money. Do not be discouraged by the blatant and shameful price manipulation tactics of The Cartel. The precious metals are going to have extraordinarily strong, fiat-relative performance in 2012. Soon, the pain of today will be long since forgotten.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 15, 2011 - 5:31pm
Dec 15, 2011 - 5:29pm

MF Global testimony

The stooges are up on the stage before the other stooges in the chairs.

The one group of stooges is saying Yuck yuck yuck

The other group of stooges is saying woo woo woo.

So far, the Congressional stooges look like...well...stooges.

So far, the MF Global stooges look like they're confused.

So far, the CME's Terry Duffy looks like an abject liar. Duffy claims that CME is not allowed to investigate the situation. Duffy also claims that he is facilitating the transfer of people's money back to them.

Then, the trustee's lawyer testifies that they are returning billions of dollars to clients, but reaching about 70% of the funds.

Want to bet that the CME is sitting on the other 30%?

Dec 15, 2011 - 5:08pm

Grandich calls Gartman one of the ‘three stooges of gold forecas

Grandich calls Gartman one of the ‘three stooges of gold forecasting’

Peter Grandich has called out fellow investment newsletter writer Dennis Gartman on his assertion earlier this week that gold is now entering a bear market.

In the latest installment of The Grandich Letter, Mr. Grandich said Mr. Gartman is a “true master of self-promotion” whose “track record better suits him for the lead role in ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’”

He also named Mr. Gartman one of the “Three Stooges of Gold Forecasting” alongside two other well-known gold commentators, Jeff Christian, the managing editor of CPM Group, and Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco.

“Mr. Gartman is one of three people who many in the media continue to quote despite a nearly decade-long poor overall track record on gold,” he said. “He, Jeff Christian and Jon Nadler have demonstrated to me (and I suspect many others) that a broken clock’s percentage of telling the correct time in any given day is about the same as their actual accurate forecasts for gold in the last decade.”

Mr. Grandich said he is willing to wager any of the three US$1-million that gold will hit US$2000 an ounce before it hits US$1,000 on the COMEX.



Dec 15, 2011 - 4:46pm
Bay of Pigs
Dec 15, 2011 - 4:38pm

Hey Velocity

You sound a lot like a regular over at Zero Hedge. Your handle there? (I think I know it already ;o)

Dec 15, 2011 - 4:38pm

Risk list 2011 A new supply

Risk list 2011

A new supply risk index for chemical elements or element groups which are of economic value


Here is the article this originated from.


Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Dec 15, 2011 - 4:30pm

@ Purchaser : Fitch Bank Downgrades

What took Fitch so loooooooooong???

Since 2008 ALL those banks have been, and continue to be, insolvent.. their huge risks outweigh their puny capital, they should all be junk

Dec 15, 2011 - 4:26pm

@ Smiddy ....Prechter is a Fraud

I'd agree with Prechter the markets reflect human emotions insofar as they reflect investors confidence or lack thereof putting their money on the markets. Everyone throws their money in good economic times at housing, internet bubbles, Apple shares etc etc

What Prechter is saying is there are 18 Elliott Wave patterns (of human behaviour) for a market to rise or fall.. even with an 18 to 1 chance and huge amounts of roped in and stolen other metholgies (confidence indicators, RSI divergence, volumes, moving averages etc etc) he STILL cannot predict the market

The proof of Elliott Waves total incompetence is in its results: they're PATHETIC

Over the near 2 years i was a paying member to these Elliot Wave fraudsters they failed miserably at everything. Non-stop calling Gold tops, stock market tops and their calls on currencies. Wrong, wrong and wrong yet again. As an investor it was carnage. The prick could have lost me my life savings if i'd listened to their consistently incompetent advise

But the utterly delusional and arrogant Prechter thinks he knows it all... when he knows precisely nothing/zip/0.00 about PM price movement and cannot time them or the stock markets. Elliott himself who convinced Prechter of the theory died poor i heard too if more proff of their ineptness ever be needed

EW is a total sham and i sincerely hope Prechters latest top calling in Gold gets rammed down his fraudulent throat once again as he's been the laughing stock of the PM community for years now

Dec 15, 2011 - 4:20pm

Internet censorship and shutdown

@Nathan1234 Over the last few days, I have been concerned with waking up one morning, the military are rounding up metal hoarders, preppers, and other malcontents, and we eon't really know for sure, because they have hit the kill switch. My main source of my news is Turd and the blogs. My first clue that our worst fears have been realised will be not being able to get the seditious sites open such as Turds, zerohedge etc. What precautions can Turd take to prevent this? Assuming he can keep the site going when Govt goons are rounding up the known dissidents (the Paul Riveers), if you are logged intoTurd's site, do they simply then trace us all by the fact we are now logged in when we shouldn't be? "Not happy Jan"

Dec 15, 2011 - 4:19pm

Fitch Downgrades

Fitch Downgrades Viability Ratings of Eight Global Trading and Universal Banks


The following highlights Fitch's ratings actions:

Bank of America Corporation
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A' from 'A+';
--Short-term IDR downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'bbb+' from 'a-'.

Barclays plc
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A' from 'AA-';
--Short-term IDR downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a' from 'aa-'.

BNP Paribas
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A+' from 'AA-';
--Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a+' from 'aa-'.

Credit Suisse AG
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A' from 'AA-';
--Short-term IDR downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a' from 'aa-'.

Deutsche Bank AG
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A' from 'AA-';
--Short-term IDR downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a' from 'aa-'.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
--Long-term IDR downgraded to 'A' from 'A+';
--Short-term IDR downgraded to 'F1' from 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a' from 'a+'.

Morgan Stanley
--Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A';
--Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a-' from 'a'.

Societe Generale
--Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A+';
--Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1+';
--Viability Rating downgraded to 'a-' from 'a+'.

--Long-term IDR affirmed at 'A';
--Short-term IDR affirmed at 'F1';
--Viability Rating affirmed at 'a-'.

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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