The Fed Disappoints

Tue, Dec 13, 2011 - 3:48pm

HAHAHAHAHA! That's a good one! As if having the Fed overtly printing money would solve all the worlds ills.

Once again the media incorrectly spins today's FOMC minutes as a postponement or even a (gasp!) cancelation of further quantitative easing. Buy the dollar! Your evil Sith masters are such responsible stewards of the economy that they are prepared stop the presses and enforce credit discipline upon a spoiled, bloated populace.

What a joke. Up goes the dollar and down goes nearly everything else. Please, I hope you are able to see through the fog of this nonsense. Again I ask you, from where is this year's $1.5T U.S. budget deficit getting its funding? From where did the U.S. government get their funding last year? From where will they get it next year?

Oh, whatever. I'm not going to go through all this stuff again. QE to infinity is the only possible option, whether or not Maria Headiromo and Bob Pissonme agree makes no difference, whatsoever.

Anyway, back to important matters. I trust that the continued weakness in the metals is not catching anyone by surprise. Nothing has changed from yesterday or last week and the selling continues. Gold looks almost certain to head toward its 200 day moving average near 1615 and silver looks to be headed to 30. The big question is:


Maybe. However, I've got a sneaky feeling that they won't. I suspect that we will see a capitulation in paper selling when gold doesn't stop at 1610 and silver doesn't stop at 30. I've maintained for some time now that paper gold was vulnerable to a drop to 1550 and that paper silver could drop toward 25. Why change that forecast now?

I just saw the OI numbers for yesterday and they are very interesting to say the least. The Feb11 contract only saw its OI drop 1500 contracts. For a drop in price, this is an extremely surprising number. First of all, this nearly confirms for me that much of the front-month trading is done by WOPR. There seem to be very few, human holders of these contracts. Also, it's clear that much of the decline yesterday was due to the initiation of new short positions by The Cartel. Again, with lease rates at -0.5%, this shouldn't surprise anyone. The BIG story is the rise in Dec11 open interest by a net of nearly 500 contracts, from 1545 to 2034! The question is: Who is jumping the queue and why? Is global demand for physical metal this month finally going to be sufficient to explode the Death Star? Is this why The Cartel has desperately suppressed price over 0 in the past 3 months? I sure can't wait to see what tomorrow's numbers are.

As I wrap up, gold is 1633 and silver is 30.65. I sincerely hope that the discussions here over the past week have helped prepare you, financially and mentally, for this brutal selloff. Keep the faith. The only thing truly declining in value is paper gold and silver. I say this with confidence because thephysical gold and silver you have in your possession is invaluable and thus insulated from the day-to-day shenanigans of the paper market.

I'd like to type more but the LTs are planning a birthday party tonight for Taylor Swift and I have to go bake a cake. I hope to have more commentary this evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


What If
Dec 13, 2011 - 7:57pm

Jesse's Café Américain

Why is gold going lower, but silver, the metal with a higher industrial component, is proving stubborn? Perhaps it is because the Central Banks don't have any.

shaz silverbonz
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:07pm

anarchy in the streets

can we have a lawful society without taxation though?

with current populations, expected growth, and such diverse ethnic backgrounds of your neighbors around you

I'm not so sure

yes it worked in the past

but that was a simpler time

when shtf soon

guess we will find out...

that bill Brown passed though to use my tax money to support advanced schooling for non-citizens def got me pissed off


Yooper Rick
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:07pm

silvergunn- big thumbs up.

silvergunn- big thumbs up. Sounds legit. I hope it is.

Dec 13, 2011 - 8:11pm

not so easy for the avg joe

to avoid payin taxes

and keep his difficult to find and semi precious job that he is afraid to loose

like most citizens have and are

living paycheck to paycheck

lostinspace stoneeh
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:27pm

Dr. Sabrosky comes on a

Dr. Sabrosky comes on a 'little' strong, but often the Mossad connection gets lost in the "inside job" talk. Yes criminal elements within our own government were involved, and no, I don't think we should nuke/invade Israel.

Military tribunals for all parties involved, foreign and domestic, and the complete withdrawal of all our troops from wars based on the lie.

Brotha Bob CrazyCooter
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:28pm

@ Cooter

@ Cooter - not sure anyone else answered you. Check out the computer name in War Games.

Economical Disaster
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:30pm

2012 Total World Debt 47 TRILLION?

Gold has nowhere to go... but....UP..

everything else is background noise.

Check it out:

unfunded debt must be in the 100's of trillions.

Dec 13, 2011 - 8:32pm


Your points are PERFECT, that's exactly the right logic and it's perfectly explained.

A bit of hope, even if all the worst cases come to pass, silver mining is still more in decline than anything else and since we NEED silver for alternative energy and new technology (especially computing and communication products), IF there is no new world war or something else causing economic activity to totally halt, at some point during the next few decades the supply/demand figure has to shift in silver's favor, and hard. Depends on your age - if you are planning to stick around for another few decades and have silver in your possession or are buying it right now, you pretty much have an explicit guarantee to get rich off it at some point during your lifetime.

And hey, there's always the best case scenario that during the next few months we'll have position limits on the COMEX, a 100% physical backed spot silver contract on the PAGE, and a new round of QE from both the Fed and the ECB ;).

Zenith pforth
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:34pm


Just want to say you are not alone. I started direct trading one year ago, sold all mutual funds and read for months on KWN, this site and others. I started investing slowly and prudently, small amounts of PHYS (PHY.U @ TSX). I made lots of searches, I listened to Turd, Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Pierre Lassonde(who is an engineer from Quebec, my "Nation"), Turk, Jim, all of the "intelligent peoples". When I got fully invested, things started to go "wrong". I gone through the SilverCorp (SVM) short manipulation and through May and September falls of Gold and Silver. All this made me almost sick. I realized that these guys are promoting their products, first of all. I think they are honnest and believe in what they are saying, but.... I think I started direct trading in the worst time and worst sector of last decades. Now, I lost 30% of my portfolio. I sold today all my PHYS and PSLV they make me sick. Soooo stupid that the real thing (physical billions hold by Sprott - actually Royal Mint of Canada) follows paper metal prices. I am convinced the premium of these ETF won't increase when GLD and SLV will continue to sell off. All this is soooo difficult. You are not alone in the boat.

Brotha Bob
Dec 13, 2011 - 8:38pm

I just love a good holiday sale

FUBM. FU, Ben and Bylthe, I am buying more. Thanks for the holiday sale. I just love a good holiday sale. Price goes down, my stack goes up. Loving it! Give me more! I love signing Burl Ives.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 46 min 51 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 1 hour 4 min ago
by Scarecrow, 3 hours 28 min ago
by Scarecrow, 3 hours 43 min ago
by SteveW, 3 hours 56 min ago