The Fed Disappoints

Tue, Dec 13, 2011 - 3:48pm

HAHAHAHAHA! That's a good one! As if having the Fed overtly printing money would solve all the worlds ills.

Once again the media incorrectly spins today's FOMC minutes as a postponement or even a (gasp!) cancelation of further quantitative easing. Buy the dollar! Your evil Sith masters are such responsible stewards of the economy that they are prepared stop the presses and enforce credit discipline upon a spoiled, bloated populace.

What a joke. Up goes the dollar and down goes nearly everything else. Please, I hope you are able to see through the fog of this nonsense. Again I ask you, from where is this year's $1.5T U.S. budget deficit getting its funding? From where did the U.S. government get their funding last year? From where will they get it next year?

Oh, whatever. I'm not going to go through all this stuff again. QE to infinity is the only possible option, whether or not Maria Headiromo and Bob Pissonme agree makes no difference, whatsoever.

Anyway, back to important matters. I trust that the continued weakness in the metals is not catching anyone by surprise. Nothing has changed from yesterday or last week and the selling continues. Gold looks almost certain to head toward its 200 day moving average near 1615 and silver looks to be headed to 30. The big question is:


Maybe. However, I've got a sneaky feeling that they won't. I suspect that we will see a capitulation in paper selling when gold doesn't stop at 1610 and silver doesn't stop at 30. I've maintained for some time now that paper gold was vulnerable to a drop to 1550 and that paper silver could drop toward 25. Why change that forecast now?

I just saw the OI numbers for yesterday and they are very interesting to say the least. The Feb11 contract only saw its OI drop 1500 contracts. For a drop in price, this is an extremely surprising number. First of all, this nearly confirms for me that much of the front-month trading is done by WOPR. There seem to be very few, human holders of these contracts. Also, it's clear that much of the decline yesterday was due to the initiation of new short positions by The Cartel. Again, with lease rates at -0.5%, this shouldn't surprise anyone. The BIG story is the rise in Dec11 open interest by a net of nearly 500 contracts, from 1545 to 2034! The question is: Who is jumping the queue and why? Is global demand for physical metal this month finally going to be sufficient to explode the Death Star? Is this why The Cartel has desperately suppressed price over 0 in the past 3 months? I sure can't wait to see what tomorrow's numbers are.

As I wrap up, gold is 1633 and silver is 30.65. I sincerely hope that the discussions here over the past week have helped prepare you, financially and mentally, for this brutal selloff. Keep the faith. The only thing truly declining in value is paper gold and silver. I say this with confidence because thephysical gold and silver you have in your possession is invaluable and thus insulated from the day-to-day shenanigans of the paper market.

I'd like to type more but the LTs are planning a birthday party tonight for Taylor Swift and I have to go bake a cake. I hope to have more commentary this evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 13, 2011 - 7:18pm

I think that MF Global woman

I think that MF Global woman who phoned it in to cme will have the accident, and not Duffy

Dec 13, 2011 - 7:20pm

Looks like 1705 wasn't

Looks like 1705 wasn't "stout" support. Not to bash on Turd or anyone else too much but TA means nothing imo, especially in totally controlled and manipulated markets.

USD over 80 though, just funny to see it there again. Wth is it doing there? Wth is it doing anywhere except 0 or maybe single digits at best? Well, as long as the USD index is mostly a function of the Euro it's probably okay where it is right now, but against real money/wealth it should be trending towards zero right now (well, 1/1600 or 1/1700 is pretty close to zero actually :)).

Gramp Shill
Dec 13, 2011 - 7:22pm

Fucking Right Shill...

I'm on the prowl for a few o z's as well.

Fuck those guys. Stuff it down even more you goons, I been waiting.

Economical Disaster
Dec 13, 2011 - 7:22pm

Realtors: We Overcounted Home

Video unavailable
Realtors: We Overcounted Home Sales for Five Years Published: Tuesday, 13 Dec 2011 | 5:21 PM ET

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.

"All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought," NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

"We're capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list."

Dec 13, 2011 - 7:24pm
Dec 13, 2011 - 7:25pm

Gold lease rates


Dec 13, 2011 - 7:26pm


Gotta pipe in and say I agree with velocity on this. Nothing will change until the EE is starved of its forced revenue stream. The "police force" is becoming more and more militarized, confrontational and intimidating towards everyday citizens. What happened to "peace officers"? In the end they will side with the State not the people (except the few officers that still believe the oath they took). Firefighters? How bout volunteer fire departments, those guys are awesome! The roads are crumbling now, but that's because its a gov't monopoly, lots of waste, no accountability.

TAXATION IS THEFT.......plain and simple. The roving thugs are already prevalent, they just wear really nice suits.

Sometimes we be-friend the bully so as not to be beaten.

Dec 13, 2011 - 7:34pm

2012 ASE's and AGE's

anyone know when these go on 'sale' or become available? - been hoping price would keep down to get sleeve or two or more.

Dec 13, 2011 - 7:35pm

Re: 9/11 & MOSSAD

So the US should invade Israel because about 1/10000 of a percent of their population maybe attacked the US? Yeah, that totally represent the whole country, nuke em all! And btw you do not get a few dozen tons of explosives (at least) into the NYTC without the approval/help of some US entity.

Dec 13, 2011 - 7:57pm

Why do price falls still scare me?

I know the score. I know in the end they have to print to keep the game going. I know that they are probably printing now behind the scenes. I know that as more and more people learn to distrust the banks gold and silver become attractive alternative stores of wealth. Perhaps most importantly I know that the prices of gold and silver have been supressed and that when the suppression comes to an end they will explode upwards like a beach ball that has been held under water.

Yet in spite of this knowledge, when the prices are hit like they are this week I still feel the gut-knot of worry. Why? If I know they have to go up why am I worrying about the short term?

1. My profits are tiny and easily pushed into the red. I've been long now for over 6 years BUT until the last year or so I've mostly been long the miners--and they've barely moved. Add a bit of panic selling from May 2006 and Nov 2008 into the mix and my profits are tiny. If we drop back down to $25, I will be under where I was in 2006. Spending so many years learning about this stuff yet having nothing to show for it weighs on the ego.

2. The panic of 2008 also weighs heavily still. When everything I predicted would happen came to pass and yet gold and silver went down it blew my mind. Some of my large cap miners went down nearly 90% (and haven't returned yet to their previous levels). It was this action which finally convinced me that gold and silver were being manipulated. But there is NO sign of it letting up. If anything it seems to be getting worse. I still have less money in my accounts than I did in Mar 2008 before Bears Stearns.

3. I see NO sign of a deviation between paper and physical. When CEF, PHYS and PSLV premiums start ramping up then I'll start to get excited. In the meanwhile I've seen people posting about coin shortages since Sep 2008. I attribute most of that to supply chain problems.

4. Gold and silver prices have been expertly capped and controlled through the worst of the crises during the last 6 months. If the recent blowups aren't enough to break them free, what is? Unless the entire system is completely obliterated, will they ever break free of their current trading ranges?

5. Normalcy bias makes it hard to envision the entire system being completely obliterated.

6. Many rumours have passed by without us seeing any evidence towards their truth. Anyone come forward with any Tunstan bars? Anyone come forward with PROOF that they got paid a huge premium to settle in cash? Nope. Nope.

Finally, as pointed out by lengendary gold-hater Denninger recently and as is illustrated by the effects of margin hikes. There is a lot of leveraged money in gold and silver. I don't think we are immune to a liquidity crunch like 2008. Especially now that the EE has painted the tape to make gold and silver appear to move WITH the stock market. I don't use any leverage myself anymore but I do have 80%+ of my assets in PMs. If silver falls to $12 before taking off to the moon it is going to be really, really, really hard to hold on for that ride.

This has been a long hard road and during it there have been life choices that have passed me by while I've been waiting on it. I'm getting tired of being used as the EE's punching bag but right now I really don't see any sign of an end to it. I can only hope that it's darkest before the dawn.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, 8 hours 1 min ago
by atarangi, 12 hours 46 min ago
by NW VIEW, Sep 14, 2019 - 12:22pm
by Green Lantern, Sep 14, 2019 - 11:39am
by sierra skier, Sep 14, 2019 - 9:47am