Wrapping Monday

Mon, Dec 12, 2011 - 8:58pm

Ugh. Yuck. What an ugly day in paper metal. Almost makes paper metal seem worthless. Hmmm. Now there's a thought...

Anyway, sorry that this was such an ugly day. It certainly wasn't any fun and I don't think the shellacking is finished yet, either. We did, however, find some support today in an old, familiar place. Check out the chart below. Gold stopped and reversed almost right at the "gap open" of 8/7. You remember 8/7, don't you? That was the very fun Sunday evening following the late 8/5 announcement by S&P that they were downgrading U.S. debt. Anyway, having found support there once again, we now have a very clear line of demarcation to watch overnight and into the rest of the week. Gold is certain to test today's low of 1660 at some point. If that area holds again as a double-bottom, some spec buying may return and ease some of the pressure. If 1660 fails...which I suspect it will...it will be a clear signal that gold is headed to 1600-1610 next and, from there, could fall all the way toward 1550. Stay tuned.


A couple of other items that merit your attention. First, "Ranting Andy" published a lengthy missive today. In great detail, he covers the ongoing manipulation and then wraps it up with a solid summary of rehypothecation.


Next, this little gem was tucked away in the "contributor" section of ZH. IMHO, it should have made the main page:


Lastly there's this from the nonsensical CNBS program "Fast Money". James West of The Midas Letter was the guest. In a stunning development, Mr. West was allowed to make claims of central bank intervention/manipulation in the gold market. Of course, the goons that host the program completely ignored his comments and proceeded, instead, to focus on their pre-screened questions about copper, etc.


I'll leave you tonight with this: Many have remarked that I seem a little apocalyptic these days. I've even gotten some emails warning me to lighten up a little bit, otherwise I might scare off some new readers. I don't know if you've noticed but it's not just me. As you click around various PM sites, you'll start to notice that many are getting increasingly dire in their predictions. I can assure you that this is not part of some collusive plan to scare the bejeesus out of you. Simply put...we've all seen the warning signs for years and now those signals are blinking bright red. The latest addition to the House of Horrors is the otherwise calm and unflappable Patrick Heller. I've been reading and posting his stuff for years. I've never, though, seen him write something like this:


Look, maybe this will all pass. Paul Krugman will be proven right for once and we'll all live happily ever after in some type nirvanic eutopia. Let's hope so.

Just in case we don't...Prepare Accordingly. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 177


Hammer · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:05pm

Possibly looking for the 200

Possibly looking for the 200 MDA Tuesday 1617 on au etc as we have started 11 bucks lower as of typing.

· Dec 12, 2011 - 9:05pm


I typed this at 1665 or so and thought today's 1660 low had at least a small chance at holding.

Guess not.

Innocent Bystander · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:08pm

Support Broken?

You jinxed it Turd! That was some coincidence, gold dropped another $12 to a new low within minutes of you posting this.

Edit: Thurd!

roadtoruin · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:12pm

Gold drops but the POSX holds

Gold drops but the POSX holds steady?

Also, can someone explain why gaps must be filled exactly? do they always get filled?

survivalwstyle · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:15pm

lets take a lOOk

 yep. the asians are going to let this slide aLL night.

Tripel_Play · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:15pm

Wait.  Paul Krugman is

Wait. Paul Krugman is sometimes wrong?

ReachWest · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:21pm

Fresh Snow and Paper Gold Lunacy

I took a few days off and went skiing in the Canadian Rockies - lots of fresh snow and some great early season skiing. Didn't read a newspaper, turn on a computer or watch anything on TV .. and it felt great.

I've come to the conclusion over the past while that we are certainly at the end of the financial world as we know it. And - frankly, I'm tired of losing sleep over it - as - I'm sure most of us that have been watching this for a few years are.

So, I'm hunkering down - my preparations are about as far progressed as they ever will be and I'm going to try not to dwell on the train wreck that is our economy. If the PM's fall on paper 50% - I don't care. I will convert more of my fiat to coin and carry forward. The clowns that manipulate this poor excuse for a financial world can price paper at whatever level they want. Makes no matter - the end result will be that "real-money" will win. You can't cheat the laws of nature.

Turd - you are correct to take an apocalyptic tone, IMO. Because the end of this fiasco is coming and people need to be aware.

Jasper16 · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:22pm

After 8 years I'm cool with this shit

Hey, I don't care anymore about the dips. I bought my phyzz long ago and never trade it. I sold my stocks 80% of them last week. So I sit and await the mother of gifts from the paper heaven. This is how I made almost all my money. They give me shares at 50% to 75% off. Hell I'll take 3 or 4 times the number per fiat I would have gotten before. Then I get 4x the upside. It's all bullshit but it's what we have to work with. So hey keep some cash aside and double or triple down at the low to your best then just chill out. (remember, without this BS most of us would have been priced out of the market long ago) Be honest about that!

After 8 years of stress here are the keys

Play ball with the kids or call them

Take a walk with your girl, it's fun, it really is or take her out for lunch and just talk.

Plant a garden and watch it grow

Works for me and I hope it works for you!

Fr. Bill · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:24pm

The Dollar is Safer Than Gold

roadtoruin wrote:
Gold drops but the POSX holds steady?

The pricing tells you a lot about what "the market" thinks, what it values, etc. 

Clearly, many in the market find dollars safer than gold. So they acquire dollars and ignore (i.e. don't put in buy orders for) gold.

Or (as ZH has reported freuqently in the very recent past), those with gold badly need dollars (i.e. European banks whose store of dollars or euros is getting thin). If they have some gold in the back room (and many of them do), they sell it to get the dollars/euros without which they're going to have Very Large Troubles doing business. Hence, a bunch of sell orders flowing into the gold markets from that quarter.

Result? POSX holds (or, sometimes, goes up some!) and gold drops.

Brotha Bob · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:27pm


FUBM. It's the only answer to this situation. Another Christmas sale. Makes me so happy. Happy I hold actual physical an not paper. If I was holding paper, I would be crying. But each ounce of gold/silver I held Saturday still weighs as much today. And, I can now afford more today then I could Friday. The price goes down, my weight goes up. Woot!

bernard · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:29pm

End Bernanke buy Silver :)

End Bernake. Purchase physical silver like Eric Sprott. Avoid MFGlobal and CME

End Bernanke buy Silver :) https://comparesilverprices.com 

Astro_Phyz · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:34pm

Dry Powder Ready? Then BTFD!

Thanks for the post Turd. You're not scaring me away. I don't think that people here want you to censor or contain yourself. I know I appreciate you telling it as you see it. I have only been following this community since the Japan earthquake/tsunami timeframe, but everything seems to be coming to a head. Something has got to give. QE to infinity for PIIGS and the US, war in the middle east, global financial collapse, something will happen in the short-term (I'd be surprised if we made it through January) that will cause the next leg-up.

Ugh for today. Yuck for tomorrow and the rest of this year maybe. But the EE is giving us an opportunity to BTFD! Merry Christmas to stackers! This sale won't last forever, and stackers could care less about how 2011 ends for paper prices. 2012 is going to be a great year for PMs.

For anyone who hasn't listened to the latest Podcast with Mike Krieger, do so now. Knowledge at it's finest. Powerful stuff.

Snaws · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:43pm

Why all the paper hatred?

Sure, physical metal is nice, but stocks and etf's are not going away. If there ever came a day where stocks were not considered legit investments it might as well be the end of the World. Paper backed by nothing may be gone one day, but stocks? I think not. If paper backed stocks go under EVERYTHING goes under. Remember, the markets were still open at the depths of WWI and WWII. If the are not open one day then physical will not do you much good either.

Be Prepared · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:44pm

Taller than the Mountains of Paper

There is no clarity that can extend beyond the Mountains of Paper the Comex and TBTF banks have created to obsure the fact that what lies beneath our financial system is a crumbling foundation ready to crush those who least expect it. The Swings in this Market are tied to the Tsunami of Debt and the Spewing of Liquidity. For most of us, the attempt to Time this System will lead us to the trap of stripping us of what little wealth we have remaining to our names.

Charts and TA will fail at an ever increasing pace because the basis of market movements is a fight to save a Monetary System struggling for its existence. None of us know exactly when the demise will occur.....we just feel it and see the mounting evidence as it imperils and removes the freedoms of our once Great Country.

Our Focus should be on our road ahead as individuals, as families and as a community. This saga...this history making event....will unfold in a chaotic bloom and to predict the entire breathe of its swath will cause us to lose sight that we must prepare.....be aware....live as true to ourselves as we can for as long as we can. Gold & Silver will go up and they will go down, but, as the layers of the annual deficit are added to our debt, their movement will march to the foolishness of that decision.

Be Prepared · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:50pm

Paper is not Hated

Paper, in of itself, is not hated....its the blatant use by TBTF institutions on an unfair playing field that has caused and is causing investors and businesses to be shut out of an open and free market. The failure of MFing Global is a clear signal that the rules of paper and its use have failed...so the use of paper is strictly at your own risk. $1.5 Billion reasons have been listed as to why the system in no longer a place for the average investor.

Fr. Bill · Dec 12, 2011 - 9:51pm

Mad, Foaming-at-the-Mouth Prophets

Mayor Turd wrote:
Many have remarked that I seem a little apocalyptic these days. I've even gotten some emails warning me to lighten up a little bit, otherwise I might scare off some new readers. I don't know if you've noticed but it's not just me. As you click around various PM sites, you'll start to notice that many are getting increasingly dire in their predictions. 

Yes, there are those who see and speak about what they see in alarmed tones, because it's ... well, alarming!

And, yes, as a great many of the meters within the financial community, within the financial press too, are flashing red, many who didn't notice these meters before are now doing so.

In another forum (Freerepublic.com) that I read fairly frequently, I've run across commenters whose opinion of Zero Hedge can be summarized like this: "Aren't they the folks who predict the imminent end of the world once or twice every month?"

And, so, it's been fun to read Tyler Durden's posts lately where he gleefully quotes the apocalyptic language of the ostensibly sober, staid financial press when he makes his reports on the latest fiscal madness.

The prophets of financial doom were always right, of course. It's their sense of timing which has been wrong for long enough for them to earn the reputations of chicken littles, those who cry "Wolf!!" and no wolf appears. But, when apocalyptic language begins to issue from the sober, establishment financial press, then I begin to think that this inevitable end is, in fact, quite near.

We're going to really enjoy this Christmas, for it may the last one like it for quite a while. 

I Am The Unknown Comic Fr. Bill · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:05pm

PMs and Broad Markets Down While DXY Stable at Approx 79.50

@Fr. Bill - don't suppose you want to take a stab at 'splainin' why the VIX dropped $0.71 under these conditions?

Hammer · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:09pm

Getting ripped

Getting ripped off..underpaid.......it's harder than it looks...it's a long way to the top, if ya wanna rock n roll...great track sums it up :)

Video unavailable
Bay of Pigs · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:10pm

The Good News

is at this rate, we will bottom quickly. Maybe even this week. 

Nothing but waterfalls on the charts? Remember that when someone says "parabolic" to you when gold goes straight up again. 

In the last eleven years I've yet to see anything even remotely close to '"parabolic" in gold. Even when silver went from $18-48 I have a hard time calling that "parabolic". Why? Because it has yet to make a new nominal or real high in 31 years, that's why.

loaded · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:20pm

Call for opinions/help!

Anyone one in T'ville have an opinion? ;) I could really use several right now to help with my dilemma. I know my timing is *terrible* but here goes...

I have a very important opportunity that requires that I liquidate a significant chunk of my meager stack, mostly silver, sometime in the next 3-4 weeks. Please just accept this part of my premise, that at this time, this is more important for my future security and well-being than PMs. I had a hunch that I should sell a tranch on Saturday, but I blew the opportunity. Insert your own strong profanities here. LCS is closed on Monday, so of course I have been getting progressively more depressed since Saturday night...

So here is my question. Are tomorrow's prices possibly the best we'll see in the next 3-4 weeks? Should I commit the entire amount to FRNs tomorrow before the situation gets even worse and stays that way? How much chance is there for a comeback within my time window? I really don't know what to do. I won't hold any grudges for advice that doesn't turn out well, perhaps you could couch your suggestion in the format "If I were you I would ___________."


HeNateMe loaded · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:28pm


Dude. If you need the cash then get the cash. If you are worried about more selling and hesitating about trading in your stack maybe you aren't that hard up. I don't know. If it's sell silver or starve I would suggest you sell your silver.

rocoach · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:32pm

End Bernake?

End Bernake?

Shill · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:33pm

King dollar...Looks like

King dollar...Looks like those IBM Puts may have legs. No Christmas Rally Ben?

"COUNTRIES FACE "ROLLOVER RISK" ON DEBT - The Financial Times says markets and governments face an uphill struggle to fund themselves next year amid extreme uncertainty over the euro zone and the global economy, as new figures reveal that the borrowing of industrialised governments has surged beyond $10 trillion this year and is forecast to grow further in 2012."


Hammer · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:38pm

If they can't fund

If they can't fund themselves, there will be an almighty rush to the USD via selling of assets. Watch out below.

Be Prepared · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:40pm

@loaded - Sell or Not?

The timing of selling your PM assets is tough. If you have a 3-4 week window to sell, then you might want to consider dollar averaging out of your position. The advantage with this direction is that if the market recovers...you might benefit from a small recovery in price of a few dollars. The disadvantage, of course, is that if silver goes down over this period.....you are selling at further lows. It doesn't have to be all at once if you truly have a window to sell.

Like henateme said "If it's sell silver or or starve".....or work, then I would also suggest you sell your silver as quickly as you need to. Ultimately, you need to be honest about what you need to do and whether a few hundred more dollars is worth the downward risk.

Fr. Bill · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:41pm

The Trivial 'splanation' is Always True

I am the Unkno... wrote:
Fr. Bill - don't suppose you want to take a stab at 'splainin' why the VIX dropped $0.71 under these conditions?

The trivial 'spalnation' for price movements is always true: a price goes down when there are more sellers than buyers. But, that's not really what you're wanting to know. Why are there more sellers than buyers? Or, why are there more buyers than sellers, causing a price to go up?

The reasons I gave above for the steady (or rising) POSX and the falling gold prices are fairly easy to find in the financial press no matter how it's scewed philosophically. All I did was to read, ponder, and think "Okay, those are credible, satisfactory, and verifiable reasons," and then passed them along to roadtoruin. I'm no guru; just passin' along what others have passed along to me.

On market volatility, I don't have much to pass along. A quick question to Ma Google nets me this alleged factoid: "The VIX was below 30 for most of the time in the 15 years up to 2008. Global financial crisis drove it close to 90 in October 2008." But, when I consult Sister Wiki over at Our Lady of Perpetual Pedias, her exposition immediately sails over my head: "The VIX is the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30 day term initiated today. Note that the VIX is the volatility of a variance swap and not that of a volatility swap (volatility being the square root of variance). A variance swap can be perfectly statically replicated through vanilla puts and calls whereas a volatility swap requires dynamic hedging."

Care to illuminate us on what this all means?

FriedEggs · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:42pm


hit $1,000,000,000 in sales - the masses dont care about PMs like we do.




EDIT: in 16 days...

silverwood · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:50pm

CNBS interview with James West

I just finished watching this interview. You can see on James face what he is thinking about his interviewers. The gal starts off with a snide remark " do we really think he would say sell gold". This basically tells me why he answered the way he did because he knows these clowns are all about trying to create fear and confusion in gold. The spin dejour was the economic news out of India. They are bringing this out to maybe to get the viewer to think, OH! those Indian people who love gold are selling? James refutes her inquiries with USD bulls and it's promoters driving the price down leaving a foot print in the market not of someone who is unwinding positions to maximize profit but a foot print of someone who is intent on price suppression. The next guy asks a serious sounding question about comparing copper to gold maybe trying to infer that gold is just another commodity blah blah and James answers him buy saying that gold is money that all paper money must answer to. The next guy want to impress the viewer to be fearful of the fact central bank may need to sell gold to raise liquidity, instead of printing up some liquidity. I love the way James blows the fear mongering away with just some simple logic. So after they get nowhere with James very strong positive gold outlook they call in Anthony who agrees with James long term but want to warn the viewer to be fearful of the deflation argument of why you don't want to buy gold now. I almost never watch this stuff because of what CNBC stands for,

C...Constantly N...Nothing B...But C...Crap!!!!!!!!!

Hammer · Dec 12, 2011 - 10:55pm

Do it, get it out of the way

Do it, get it out of the way.

You should have enough time to recoup without any dramas imo and if the amount is small enough to be able to recover by getting a part time holiday job or doing extra shifts, then just go ahead and do it.

caveat to your premise of having "an opportunity" for the reason why you need to sell. below - don't know what it is you are talking about but that is your business of course :)

"Act in haste, repent at leisure.........."

pourty · Dec 12, 2011 - 11:02pm

I guess PAGE isn't going to open until June 2012 now?

Finally found an answer to my question a few days ago... (sorry if this is old news for some, it's new news to me).


That's dissapointing...

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