Preparing For The End...

200
Wed, Nov 30, 2011 - 10:06pm

...of the year. It certainly has been a wild one and we've still got a month to go. What's in store for us? Well, I'm prepared to hazard a guess.

On balance, it's been a pretty good year here in TurdLand. I figure I probably only batted about 60-70% on the day-to-day stuff but the long-term forecasts have been pretty solid. First there was this:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/1600-gold-by-june-10-2011.html

Followed by this:

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/turds-bottom-2.html

Then there was this:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1993/silver-44

And, finally, this:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2780/there-he-goes-again

Not that this is magic or that I'm anyone special. As I've often stated, predicting the future price of the precious metals is really quite simple. Once you accept that the precious metals are the most blatantly manipulated "market" on the face of the earth, predicting future price gets a lot easier. Then, when you factor in that gold has progressed a nearly perfect 20-25% each year since 2001, the crystal ball gets remarkably clear. So clear that even a Turd can read it.

You'll recall that gold finished 2010 at about $1435. Immediately thereafter, I began mentioning that gold was likely to trade toward $1750 sometime by late 2011. How could I make this case? Simple. 1435 + 22.5% = 1758. Sorry if that disappoints you but it really is that basic. As for 2012, why complicate matters? As you'll see below, I expect gold to finish 2011 somewhere in the neighborhood of $1800. From there, let's add another 25%. (I'm going for the upper end of the 20-25% range. As awareness grows, however, 25% may end up being a bit conservative.)

$1800 + 25% = $2250

Like this year, gold will probably trade higher than $2250 at some point in 2012. It will also see several, major corrections as The Cartel will still be in there, banging away. In the end, though, your stack will be worth a lot more again 12 months from now, of that you can be certain.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have the month of December to deal with. First, a caveat. Regular readers have noticed that I've spent quite a bit of time recently discussing the current geo-political instability in the Middle East. Similar to the longer-term predictions recalled above, I'm about to give you another 4-6 week forecast. However, if Israel attacks Iran and/or NATO attacks Syria and/or Pakistan melts down and/or World War III and/or The Second Coming happens, all bets are off. Capiche?

OK, let's talk about gold first. Clearly, we received some extraordinarily bullish news this morning regarding gold. It is tempting to sit back now and say that the coast is clear and that you should buy with impunity. Well, as Lee Corso would say, "not so fast, my friend". Yes the fundos are still overwhelmingly strong and, yes the open interest numbers look quite compelling. Don't get ahead of yourself this month, though. Recent history has shown that The Cartel is not a big fan of late year rallies. In fact, both 2009 and 2010 held pretty lousy Decembers. Though I think we're in for a rally, I'm not looking for gold to go charging back to the old highs, at least not yet.

In the near term, it certainly appears that this latest "correction" is over. Having moved back through 1750 tonight, gold will likely continue higher until it encounters some pretty stout resistance in the area around 1765-1770. This coincides with the downward trendline from the highs of early September. That line served to contain the rally earlier this month and it will likely give gold trouble again. However, it has to give way sometime so I expect gold to break through that line, perhaps as soon as next week. From there, I expect gold to rally toward the top end of the channel that began way back at the lows of the financial crisis back in 2008. This would put gold somewhere near 1825-1840 by mid-month. From there, some year-end profit-taking kicks in and gold settles back to a 12/31/11 close somewhere right around $1800.

So what about silver? Frankly, silver is considerably more challenging. The fundamentals are extraordinarily positive but the desperate manipulation measures put into place this year by the criminal C/C/C (CME/Comex/ Cartel) are having a lasting impact on the futures market. And as long as the dastardly Comex paper silver price is used as the basis for the price of physical, movements in silver are going to be very difficult to forecast.

For now, silver appears stuck in a pennant-type range. I can see nothing on the near-term horizon that will cause it to break out. Once we get into 2012 and overt QE begins anew, silver will again be off to the races. Maybe then we will finally have enough physical investment demand to break the back of the evil C/C/C. Maybe. Until then, we're stuck.

So, there you go. If you are waiting for a consequential forecast such as "Turd's Bottom", I'm sorry to disappoint you. There's simply too much intervention/manipulation of all markets at the time being to confidently make such a forecast. Let's just get through this month, see where we finish 2011 and then make some plans for 2012. You can be certain that the new year will bring another set of remarkable runs in the PMs, so, be patient. Now is not the time to be going all-in. The next opportunity to do so will reveal itself soon. In the meantime, sit back and relax. Enjoy the holiday season. Maybe hit the company Christmas party. Spill some booze on your boss while simultaneously hitting on his wife. Silent Night, Auld Lang Syne and all that jazz. Then, get ready for an historic 2012. TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  200 Comments

Tyler
Dec 1, 2011 - 5:22pm
agrock
Dec 1, 2011 - 5:26pm

bullish for gold

so if cnbc is saying this will AU do the opposite?

Cold On Gold , Gold Goes Cold I don’t think gold breaks $2,000 an ounce. I think gold has basically peaked and is now a bit overvalued. My prediction is that people will buy more stocks than gold. I’m optimistic about the stock market, so I would not be a gold buyer. - Larry Kudlow https://www.cnbc.com/id/45507940?slide=8
Maximillion Economical Disaster
Dec 1, 2011 - 5:48pm

$9 gas, better get used to it

Here in the UK we already pay $10 per gallon so does that mean we're flying ours in from Iran?

1oz of silver still buys the same 5 gallons it did in the 1960's though and that's the purpose of PM's (maths correct as silver is £30 per oz over here due to 20%tax/VAT).

Brother Johns got a new posting re the retirement pay and ages of EU countries which clears up why France is so desperate to hold it all together and the impossibility of current benefits continuing.

https://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF#p/a/u/0/4kTI8IuVoEA

Santa's Elf
Dec 1, 2011 - 5:53pm

@ York Rite re Sinclair

I struggle with understanding the frustration you're feeling with Santa's prediction. He didn't say $2000 gold was coming in 3 weeks and 4 days...he said "soon". If gold hits $2000 4-5 months from the time he made the comment, it'd be "soon" in my book. Just because your perception of soon was sometime in the past 5 weeks, doesn't mean everyone else's perception is. Not sure your criticism holds a whole lot of water.

Let it be known that I'm not trying to defend Sinclair as much as I think your mentality would suggest you're speculating in PMs for the sake of making a quick stash of FRNs. I also don't mean to be bagging on you---just saying that if you're stacking for the long haul, short term predictions don't mean a whole lot. If you're speculating for the quick buck (nothing wrong with that), save yourself the angst and don't base your decisions on predictions without fixed timelines--or any predictions outside of your own, for that matter.

atarangi
Dec 1, 2011 - 6:12pm

@ tyler - - - Re: Where can i go to be free? - - -

Try New Zealand, it's paradise on earth. Best place to be when the s.h.t.f. Yanks love it here and fit in very well. The south island is best if you like pristine wilderness and adventure.


Dec 1, 2011 - 6:27pm

Q...

Thanks. I have had a sneaking suspicion that debt might get indexed here as well. As long as they continue to hide the inflation with suppression of specific "luminary" commodities like milk, bread, gasoline etc, they cannot index debt. But once they admit to 20-40% inflation that we really have, once they throw the towel in and start the presses nonstop, I think we will see it.

sixdollarsilver
Dec 1, 2011 - 6:29pm

Atarangi beat me to it

@ Tyler - The North Island's pretty good, too :)

You can take or leave as much or as little civilisation as you want in this neck of the woods without needing to inconvenience yourself. Locals are pretty friendly.

WineGuy
Dec 1, 2011 - 6:37pm

York Rite / Moderator .....

It appears I owe you an apology as Ms Moderator has "Moderated" my prior post? WOW! Big brother is alive and well.

Bay of Pigs
Dec 1, 2011 - 6:47pm

WineGuy

No, you don't need to apologize. You told the truth, and that's all that matters. I saw nothing inflammatory in your post, especially in light of his bombastic personal attacks against Sinclair.

Boardwalk
Dec 1, 2011 - 6:55pm

@ Q RE: Michael Hudson

Thanks for posting that excellent link.

Michael Hudson correctly points out that the Banksters use the cover of Crisis to collect on debts that would otherwise be unpayable due to their overbearing weight. He calls it "the financial equivalent of military conquest". Or, financial terrorism?!

SilverLeaf
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:06pm

Jim Rogers: QE3 has already started.

Markets may rally on certain short-term fixes or good news, but until some resolution comes to the mountainous sovereign debt, no rally will last.

He also commented that QE3 is already underway if you look at the huge jump up of M2 money supply since August (see chart below). In Rogers words, "they are buying something." He also thinks the world could be better off without the central banks money printing press.

Regarding his current investing strategy, he said he's shorting European stocks, American technology stocks (He is shorting a package of U.S. technology stocks including Microsoft calls), emerging market stocks, but long commodities and currencies (Rogers owns some euros).

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=M2

Tyler
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:07pm

Thanks for the N.Z tip

checking it out now!

Lumpy
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:15pm

@ Big L & Kumanari

B1 thanks for posts today. I understand what you are saying. Using broad brush strokes when describing any class or group of people is usually not accurate. Too many individual situations.

I guess my question isn't about Rich people, because I don't have a problem with rich people. They just happen to have the money.

THE Question: All the money in the world in all paper forms from every Nation is more than enough to buy all of the TRUE MONEY in the world several times over. Why don't they buy it all? It should have been gone years ago. Your post and others today have basically answered the question. The wealthy already have all they need. They don't need to buy it because they own everything already. At least that's what I think I'm hearing. Thanks again Big L.

Kumanari, Thanks for you post. You said, " In the center of a belief is usually a LIE."

I LOVE THAT! That's how I feel when I'm told that I'm FREE.

They take about 40% in all the money I earn thru taxation. So I feel about 60% FREE, which is better than being 100% in jail for not paying the 40% for my Freedom.

Gramp
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:16pm

Ron Paul coming up on CNBS

Ron Paul coming up on CNBS next

¤
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:19pm

Sharing this with all of you / You thinking what I'm thinking?

Here's how the silver price performed after each of the last four times silver sentiment bottomed out…

Date Low Price High Price Period Return
Bottom No. 1 8/28/2007 $12.07 $20.15 6 Months 67%
Bottom No. 2 10/21/2008 $9.36 $47.25 12 Months 405%
Bottom No. 3 6/28/2011 $33.88 $43.26 2 Months 28%
Bottom No. 4 10/18/2011 $31.38 ? ? ?

The best return came after Bottom No. 2, which coincided with the U.S. banking/credit crisis. Silver soared an eye-popping 405%, including its parabolic rise in 2010.

silver foil hat
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:22pm

Better check your credit card statements

you may be the owner of a new GM vehicle...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/gm-channel-stuffing-surges-all-time-record

The connection?

https://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/14/report-credit-card-fraud-for-obama/

It worked once before. Just exactly who is 'buying' all these vehicles?

silver foil hat
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:34pm

Interesting fact (if I explain it right)

If the mass of the Sun = $1.00 FRN, then the debt (expressed in mass) of the United States is significantly greater than all the mass of the Milky Way galaxy, including the 'dark matter' that is unseen.

BTW, just to show how much mass the galaxy has it is roughly 1 to 2 TRILLION times the mass of the sun. It's a big range, as scientists really don't know how much 'dark matter' exists. Even at 2 Trillion masses, the US debt is over 7 times greater.

retireyoung California Lawyer
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:35pm

California Lawyer

"If some dumb ass wants to meet his maker early, I say come on by and I will assist".

I feel sorry for someone who thinks in those terms.

I Run Bartertown retireyoung
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:38pm

retireyoung

"I feel sorry for someone who thinks in those terms."

Nobody cares.

GoldMania3000
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:42pm

So

Is silver going back into the 20s?

I Run Bartertown
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:46pm

Katie Rose

I owe you thanks again. I often see very low tax figures on land listed for sale, but i didn't consider that many of these are artificially low under some type of 'grandfathered' rate. As a new owner, I guess you get a bill multiples of what the previous owner paid.

I guess it'd be tough to avoid, but is there an easy way to get info from the assessor prior to buying and know exactly what to expect in the way of immediate increase above what the realtor tells you? Thanks.

Eric Original
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:58pm

diegodog

That is the one problem with land, you can't really hid it. When the locals need some more tax money, there it is. That being said, I still think land will be one of the best things you can own. Just make sure you have prop taxes covered for a while like Katie Rose said.

Drifter
Dec 1, 2011 - 7:58pm

re: Jim Rogers: QE3 has already started.

In August JR said the USD was going to rise and it did. That was the first canary in the coal mine of the precious metals smash down.

I swore I'd pay better attention to what he has to say in future because not listening to him in 8/11 cost me.

Ivars I think your pm takeoff in May 2012 may start early, we'll see.

kingbee4
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:02pm

Property taxes

Never heard of grandfathered rates for property taxes. Is that an official policy in your county? Or perhaps the rate changed from farm rates to homeowner rates when the farm went from 250 acres to 20 acres?

Eric Original
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:07pm

Mod Jane

MMMMMM.... Bacon! It's what's for dinner.

Katie Rose
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:23pm

I Run Bartertown ~ property taxes

When you purchase a piece of property or even a home, you can ask your agent to write in a 10 day Feasibility Study, and insist on having one. What that does is essentially tie up the property for ten days while you do your DD. During that time a trip to the Assessor would be in order; as well as the Planning Department to see about zoning and other issues (wetlands, etc); and a trip to the well people to find out what is happening in the area concerning water. Knocking on neighbor's doors is also a good idea as they are often very vocal in sharing information about the property you will not find anywhere else.

We purchased our property in 2007 when the market was sizzling hot, three offers on the property the first day it hit the market, and I had no wiggle room at all. No Feasibility Study was allowed. All through escrow agents were calling the seller directly stating that if our sale was "in trouble" they had clients who would pay him even more than we did. It is unethical to do what they did, but I've found that ethics are not a high point with our local Board of Realtors.

Saying that, the Assessor gouged us.

So yes, check out everything you can in advance. The market is slow and sellers accommodating.

I have started a thread in the Preparing Accordingly Forum titled Buying Rural Land. Hopefully we can all share our knowledge and experiences as I suspect many of us will find that city living is not where we want to be when the Federal Government defaults on its obligations.

¤
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:35pm
OC15
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:38pm

Chris Martenson

That presentation he did on the gold money video really quantifies how very unprepared everyone is when you think of things in exponential terms. It's something I had talked about before. We think linearly. It is very difficult for us to prepare for things to happen exponentially. For example, we talk about gold being 2,000-2,500 sometime next year. But when you think of things exponentially and how when the formula hits a certain point in the curve it can go to infinity in the snap of the fingers. It is difficult to determine exactly where we are on all those curves but for sure time is very short. I think we were just about there in 2008 and through some creative shenanigans they were able to make that curve appear to go flat for a short period of time.

Save_America1st
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:38pm

Ann Barnhardt...WOW...just WOW!

Not sure if this has already been posted, so in case it has not yet then all must listen to this. Ann did an interview w/ James Puplava, and man did she light it up! He just let her go for it and she hit the grand slam.

A must to listen to regarding MF'ing Global and the rest of the corrupt scum that are destroying this country. She tears it up and then some. One of the best interviews I've ever heard. Link is below...go to it and then you click on your preferred player button next to her picture.

I'm tellin' ya, listen to it, save it, and email it to everybody you know! Everyone you know must hear the truth about these psychos and nobody else has or can state the case more succinctly than she does in this interview.

Excellent in-site and advice right to the very end. Ann, if you're a member or a lurker and read main street I hope you see this because I want to say "Thank you".

https://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/12/01/ann-barnhardt/entire-futures-options-market-destroyed-by-mf-global-collapse

Darth Smoker
Dec 1, 2011 - 8:44pm

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