Foreign Affairs

224
Sat, Nov 26, 2011 - 12:55pm

Next week is shaping up to be an extremely volatile and tense week. At the surface, there is the ongoing concern over the EU and the future of the euro. Bubbling below the surface is something far more dangerous.

First, on Wednesday, there was this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/aircraft-carrier-cvn-77-parks-next-door-syria-just-us-urges-americans-leave-country-immediately

Which was followed by this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-retaliates-against-us-puts-radar-station-combat-alert-prepares-take-out-european-missile

The only article I found concerning Medvedev's speech managed to minimize the concern by pointing out that all of the bluster was likely just "posturing before the next Russian presidential election". What the author failed to point out, however, is that Medvedev isn't running for re-election. Hmmm. So what do we make of it? What is going on here? Let's refer to the ageless wisdom of Admiral Painter:

Russians don't take a dump, son...

The Russians are clearly trying to send a signal to the U.S., NATO and the Arab League to NOT attack Syria and depose Assad the way they did Gaddafi. Syria is a longtime Russian ally in the region.

OK, so then we get this, from the media arm of The Mossad:

https://www.debka.com/article/21519/

Why would the Turks or the Israelis go to the trouble of wiping out 6 of Syria's "top pilots" if they weren't planning on assuming control of Syrian airspace in the near future?

https://news.yahoo.com/turkey-says-no-longer-tolerate-syria-bloodshed-113444151.html

And then we get this, also from debka. Looks like the Russian "plan" is escalating, too:

https://www.debka.com/article/21521/

Then, today, we are treated to this. Nothing like pissing off Pakistan, too, and at just the wrong time. You can bet your arse there will be mass rioting and anti-U.S. demonstrations in Pakistan over the next few days. Will there be sufficient chaos to unseat the ruling generals?

https://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/26/us-pakistan-nato-idUSTRE7AP03S20111126

Just for a little background and color:

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

And, to top it all off, there's this:

https://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/iran-general-threatens-retaliation-against-israel-nuclear-sites-1.397789

And this:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-threatens-hit-turkey-us-israel-attack-15032413#.TtEtds1OBhs

So, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Rest and relax but keep an eye on the headlines. Perhaps this will all just blow over. Could we be so lucky? I fear the worst, however, so I'll leave you with one more bit of wisdom and experience from Admiral Painter.

We'll Be Lucky to Live Through It

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  224 Comments

Fortinbras
Nov 26, 2011 - 8:26pm

@Ferd...

Yes, I'm back home for another week, then off to Eastern Europe for a week, then home for 3days, then back to AF in mid-December. As for what I think... I think Turd's summary gives everyone enough to think about. Yes, there is a LOT of "posturing" and "chest thumping" going on... Its what ALL animals do most of the time. There is actually very little actual fighting in the animal kingdom. However, much like several other times in history, and especially in the last 100 years, we have so many entangling and interrelated posturings going on that it will only take one silly little incident somewhere to kick it all off... People act as if the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand kicked of WW I overnight... It didn't, it just set the wheels in motion and now, in hindsight, we point back to that event as "it." Who knows what the next "it" will be, but we certainly have a zillion potential situations now. Worse is the fact that several of them are with unstable, potentially desperate, nuclear powers.

Ferd Torgerson Fortinbras
Nov 26, 2011 - 8:38pm

Fortinbras

Thanks for your insights.

Hope you get to spend some quality time with those you care about while you're home.

Stay safe real good.

Edit: And I'll bet if John Candy were alive today, he'd be here posting with us.

plantorganic
Nov 26, 2011 - 8:46pm

MFGlobal: LindWaldock: R.J.OBrien funds on the way...

The online application for RJO was simple but long, and once complete the welcome emails arrived, and yesterday the pdf doc with 60% of our last cash balance. It's a start; or a new model of banking? Dec. 2 is the availability date, can't wait, then off to goldmoney account.

Fortinbras
Nov 26, 2011 - 9:05pm

@Ferd...

Thanks, and yes, I'm home with family... and building my barn! ;) As for "stay safe real good"... Always! I've been "blow'd up" twice, but not "real good!" ;) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhM-hrTyzJo&feature=youtube_gdata_player EDIT AFTER MY POST AND YOUR EDIT: I got the SCTV reference before your edit... Grew up in Detroit and we got SCTV there on CBC long before most Americans knew who any of those guys (or the original SNL crew) were. ;)

redwood
Nov 26, 2011 - 9:08pm

Fortinbras

Good to hear from you pal. You can always come back to Turdville to know those here are engaged in another type of combat, not dangerous like yours but combat just the same. If over time we have any success perhaps good fellas like you don't have to be engaged in these crazy wars....keep well.

Fortinbras
Nov 26, 2011 - 9:21pm

@Redwood...

Thanks. I'll disengage myself later in 2012 regardless of what is still going on. There is one group that i'll continue to work with for personal reasons (which is incredibly stupid on my part), but then it will be time to be old and boring... Maybe write a book.

Hold over
Nov 26, 2011 - 10:49pm

  NOV 24 2011: The U.S.

NOV 24 2011: The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart "immediately," and Turkey's foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria.

"The U.S. Embassy continues to urge U.S. citizens in Syria to depart immediately while commercial transportation is available," said a statement issued to the American community in Syria Wednesday and posted on the Embassy's website. US special forces launch rare attack inside Syria. November 25, 2011

Syrian army says 10 personnel killed in foreign-backed attack

(Reuters) - The Syrian military said on Friday that 10 air force personnel, including six pilots, were killed in an attack on a base and said the action proved foreign involvement in the eight-month revolt against President Bashar al-Assad's rule.

https://www.fox40.com/news/capitolpulse/sns-rt-us-syria-attacktre7ao0to-20111125,0,7188293.story

https://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/25/syria-military-cut-evil-hand

BEIRUT (AP) — Syria buried 22 members of the armed forces Saturday, including six elite pilots, as the government reinforced its message that the 8-month-old revolt against President Bashar Assad is the work of terrorists and foreign agents, not patriotic Syrians seeking reform.

OCT 2011:

US attack in Syria kills 6

These things were done in our name, with our money,by our officials , with our people. We have our names on this .

Ya think the people of a free republic might want to know that they are now in danger of reprisals because of what our officials did?

Did anybody here approve this before hand? Were you asked? or even informed?

From what I've been reading, it seems like the US is only going to be working in the background , and Arab league nations might enforce a no fly zone to create a buffer between the Russians and American forces officially. IE : by proxy.

In my opinion , what were seeing here in NATO and allied forces is a precursor to a world armed forces . The three branches of government are being formed in the UN, the global banking system, global economy, and eventually a global enforcement element.

Open borders , common currencies are todays buzzwords . Once the poverty level becomes unbearable the American people will beg for change . and they will get it in spades.

Bernake is not stupid. He knows exactly what he is doing. He is breaking the US economy slowly.

The first step was to de-industrialize the US and spread it all over the globe, the next will be to cause such a depression that the people will welcome a ""New Idea"" the solution will be greeted with cheers.

And we will will live happily ever after. Really!

Katie Rose
Nov 26, 2011 - 11:19pm

Buying Rural Land/Moving to the Country

I wanted you all to know that I have started a new thread in the Preparing Accordingly Forum. It is located here. Please join us with any insights or questions. This is a big topic and we all can help each other.

I know many of you are as knowledgeable as I am (if not more so) on this topic, so please do not be bashful in chiming in. We need your expertise!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3025/buying-rural-land-moving-country#comment-528436

Here's a taste:

I have wanted to start a thread on rural land and living for quite some time. My profession is real estate and I sold my first home on January 2, 1979. I've lived through a few real estate booms and busts, but have never seen the US in such precarious straits as it is today. One plus one does equal two. One is the US is broke with our means of production and our industrial knowledge given to a Communist nation which does not wish us well. The other one is we have become a lawless nation, with the rot starting at the top and filtering down to all levels of society. For me that one plus one means that unemployed, hungry, lawless folks will eventually make city living extremely dangerous, especially when Food Stamps, rent subsidies, etc are reduced or ended entirely. I do not want to be in the city when that occurs. That is why I live in rural NE WA State. There is a saying among real estate professionals. "It is very easy to buy raw, rural land, and nearly impossible to sell it." Anyone wanting to buy raw land needs to be extremely careful. I do not recommend it....
NW VIEW
Nov 26, 2011 - 11:22pm

STARVE YOUR FEARS TO DEATH

One could die a thousand deaths just reading all the bad news and the possible outcomes. The Mayan calendar and even old Nostradamus has given mankind until December 2012 to be alive and well. That date will pass also just like Y2K . Before the real trouble is in full swing, we will see the invasion of Israel. This is the real hot spot and has been from 33 A.D. Not everyone sees the battle lines of the future from the same position. These wars and rumor of wars must come.

Being really prepared is more than silver and gold, more than farm land and canned ham, more than living in an underground tube. We have burned the fuse on this time bomb to where it is quite short and now we see the nations rising up for conflict. We do not need any more false prophets to guide us but some real ones will come forth in due time. Peace to all this night.

redwood
Nov 26, 2011 - 11:34pm

I just have to say I am in

I just have to say I am in awe of the posters on this blog. Turd you have created a masterpiece here...is all I can say.

Hold over
Nov 26, 2011 - 11:58pm

on a lighter

on a lighter note,

OCCUPY-WALL-STREET-vs-THE-EMPIRE :

OCCUPY WALL STREET vs THE EMPIRE
Steven L Goff
Nov 27, 2011 - 12:49am

Lets just worry about the USA for a bit, and see how that goes.

Lets seeeeeeeeeee. Russia is starting to get impatient with our crap. Pakistan is about to declare war on us. Iran told us to stop threatening us and let us live our lives....or else! We owe China many trillions of USA Dollars. Many are about to die in Egypt soon. just about everyone in Iraq and Afghanistan want us to die painfully. No wonder the world just loves the USA. And Ron Paul is the crazy one in the GOP!? You better start worrying about America and America only. Because if all these people we are pissing off in the world get together. They could hand us our cocks!

I_ate_the_crow
Nov 27, 2011 - 1:50am

Ok so I've just officially

Ok so I've just officially come to the conclusion that I want the blue pill option back. We are so screwed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/707568901000000-how-and-why-banks-increased-total-outstanding-derivatives-record-107-trillion-6?page=1

CreditCrumbs
Nov 27, 2011 - 2:28am

CreditCrumbs Crystal Ball: Future Economic Structure

As I mentioned in the past, I am working on a thesis that serfdom will be institutionalized again. The key reason is that I can see that it has become economical again to turn the society to serfdom. This is still a working thesis, so I may still modify it. I invite your comments. Here is my reasoning.

(Warning: this is a cold logic analysis, not a position post. I am not championing or endorsing any policy. It is purely a prediction of how things may unfold. Also, this post rests on the axiom that Peak Resources will be here by 2020.)

Draw a matrix with the row divided into two: labor needed for production vs. labor not needed for production. Draw two columns as well: abundant vs. scarce natural resources. The result is the following matrix:

Let's analyze the four cases in the matrix, starting from the Labor Centric economy.

Case 1. Abundant natural resources + labor needed for production: labor command a strong bargaining power in the economy and is well compensated by asset owners. Example: the Labor Centric economy of the post world war US until the early 80s.

Case 2: Abundant natural resources + labor not needed for production: everybody can consume but production work is not needed, hence labor provide services rather than production. Example: service based economy of the US 80s and 90s.

Case 3: Scarce natural resources + labor not needed for production: labor cannot find production work and cannot consume much. The most fitting economic structure is a combination of low-paying service jobs plus a large fraction of unemployed welfare and entitlement class, given welfare checks for subsistence but can't consume much. Example: US 2000 to 2020? Boomers drawing retirement checks and welfare class drawing welfare checks. Both demographic groups consume but do not produce.

Case 4: Scarce natural resources + labor needed for production: labor is needed again for production work but cannot consume much. Why Case 4 instead of Case 3? Peak oil demands efficiency: the use of every calorie consumed for production. Machinery may have to be replaced by manual labor again. Welfare class is a source of inefficiency as they consume calories but do not produce. In this case, every abled body person will be asked to produce. The most fitting economic structure to this is serfdom. When? possibly 2020 to 2050. Serfs put manual labor for production, but are under-compensated forcing them to consume little.

Lumpy
Nov 27, 2011 - 3:32am

WW3

I'm not sure how getting the Country into another scuffle is going to help anyone get re-elected. Maybe we will hold off on WW3 until after the election ;)

LongGoldLongSilver
Nov 27, 2011 - 5:32am

History On Repeat

Officials and mainstream media are slowly building up the case for involvement in Syria and of course, Iran, which is the crown jewel of the Middle East for Western policy makers. Sanctions are already in place and a no-fly zone in Syria is being pushed by the Arab League. We all know what that is a precursor for - war. This time China and Russia don't seem to be willing to just stand idle and watch US and NATO troops get even closer to their borders. Russia has already sent warships into Syrian waters in support of the regime. If this thing explodes, you can forget about failed bond auctions in Europe for a while. "Russia is facing a heightened risk of being drawn into conflicts at its borders that have the potential of turning nuclear, the nation's top military officer said Thursday. Gen. Nikolai Makarov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, cautioned over NATO's expansion eastward and warned that the risks for Russia to be pulled into local conflicts have 'risen sharply.'"Read full Business Insider article here "The rift between Russia and the West over Syria and Iran has widened on Tuesday as Moscow sent warships to Syrian shores in a show of support for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and slammed new United States sanctions against Iran as 'unacceptable'. Three Russian warships have entered Syrian territorial waters, Russian wire services reported on Tuesday citing Syrian sources. The news came a day after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West and Arab monarchies of engaging in “political provocation” in Syria by rejecting dialogue between the opposition and authorities and welcoming armed attacks on government offices."Read full The Hindu article here

https://www.economicfreefall.com/2011/11/watch-out.html


Nov 27, 2011 - 7:17am

Sorry to be not so gloomy but

I have lived most of my life under the MAD concept - the world has been about to end many times. Nuclear winter, impending ice-age, peak oil (1970's), Y2K, and always a threat of war in the Middle East, which has frequently broken out. Not being naive, just things take a long time to happen, and then boom they happen all at once, or, mostly, they don't. (And don't get me started on purple loosestrife or zebra mussels.) But waiting with baited breath for the next piece of bad news will drive you bonkers and not help.

And hoping for a miraculous save based on the calendar (any calendar no matter how ancient) places a great deal of trust in many things, including our standard measurements of time.

And if you have an idea, try expressing it in full sentences, with proper grammar, as best as you can. It really helps with logic.

York Rite
Nov 27, 2011 - 7:22am

Webster Tarpley on Syria

There's no Free Syrian Army or widespread opposition to Assad. All the killings are being done by Mossad/MI6/CIA sponsored mercenaries then pinned on government forces. He says he's been to Homs, the very centre of the so-called revolt, and the people there want the army in there to protect them from snipers.

Mossad vs Assad? 'CIA death squads behind Syria bloodbath'

Nov 27, 2011 - 7:52am

re no widespread opposition to Assad

"AFTER swinging between reform and repression, President Bashar Assad has cracked down on anti-government protesters with renewed and desperate vigour. On April 22nd more than a hundred Syrians were killed in at least 14 different towns, by most counts bringing the death toll since demonstrations began in earnest a month ago to more than 450. On April 25th the repression reached a new ferocity when tanks rolled in to the southern city of Deraa, where the protests had begun. The death tally could yet rise sharply, as Mr Assad’s legitimacy falls fast. Before the army launched its attack on Deraa, electricity and communications were cut off and outsiders banned from entering. Water and bread have been running low. Wounded protesters are being denied access to medical treatment. Scores of people there and in other areas, including Douma, a suburb of the capital, Damascus, have been locked up. Checkpoints have proliferated. Parts of the country feel as if they are under siege." https://www.economist.com/node/18621246

Of course there is no opposition to the guy - he is a monster. Not saying anything about justifying war, but he is no friggin' saint and to claim that all the violence and murder is the fault of the CIA and Mossad is to ignore the other players on the field.

Boardwalk
Nov 27, 2011 - 8:17am

dumpster

You said: "the war on terror and american lie . every thing from 9-11 onward are lies and propaganda designed to show how dense and believing the crowds are"

​Lies and propaganda have been SOP a lot longer than that. Better bust out the history books, they'll round out your perspective and help with the signal to noise ratio of your posts.

Gramp
Nov 27, 2011 - 9:12am

Syria, PBS, Frontline

I have found the Frontline PBS show to be informative for years.

Good piece, though I had my "flour sifter" out, shaking fact from propaganda.

Here is the link.

Video unavailable
Boardwalk
Nov 27, 2011 - 9:48am

Gramp

LOL! Flour sifter. The propaganda machine is kicking into high gear. I upgraded to this to be sure I was prepared.

Aram
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:11am

@Moderator

My last post entitled "Israel is destroying America" has been removed.

Could you please advise which rule did I break to incur your censorship.

cavalier
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:33am

Butler plus world events say buy silver

The Butler article and podcast stated that silver was currently at a low price and that while he could not predict the absolute bottom that he thought that the current price was a good buying opportunity. He specifically mentioned silver American eagles as a good way to buy silver because of low price of silver, the current low premium and the current easy availability. A few months ago it was hard to get ASEs without paying a large premium. This recommendation plus all the chaos and potential chaos in the world suggest that now may be a very good time to buy ASEs. If the Mideast blows up it may also be a good time to own oil companies (I like SU and CVE canadian tar sand companies). And it is always a good time to own canned hams with expiration dates of 2016 and other long shelf life foods. While we all hope to be able to buy silver at $24 -26 I don't know if that will happen with all of the uncertainty in the world and current silver prices aren't that far from 26 . Now appears to be a good time to nibble or even gulp. GLTA.

Mudsharkbytes Aram
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:37am

@Aram

Most likely one of the moderators conflated anti Israel with anti Semitic. The two are not the same. You can be anti Israel or anti Zionism without being anti Semitic or a racist in any way whatsoever.

This is why I tend to avoid overly moderated blogs anymore. Not only do the really outre posts that tend to generate interesting discussions get removed, but often innocuous posts like yours probably was (but I was prevented from reading it ) get removed as well because moderators tend to overreact thinking "better safe than sorry".

It's because of thinking like this that the Frank Zappa record "Jazz From Hell" earned a "Parental Advisory" sticker for being explicit. "Jazz from Hell" was / is 100 % instrumental - no lyrics at all. The most explicit thing on that record is the title of one cut - "G Spot Tornado".

Looks like the Wynter Benton group has their work cut out for them.

Boardwalk
Nov 27, 2011 - 10:43am

aram

EDIT: My original post was not in the spirit of cooperation or helpfulness that this blog is founded on. It did nothing to inform, enlighten or elevate the level of discussion on this thread. As a result, I've chosen to delete it.


Nov 27, 2011 - 10:53am

Defending the moderators

They do a great job.

Hating a people is so last millennium.

Mudsharkbytes
Nov 27, 2011 - 11:00am

Conflating

Israel is a country, not a 'people'.

Nobody can say a post was removed because of 'hate' because it can no longer be read.

I thank nobody for preventing me from hearing the ideas of others.

The moderators I'm sure do a good job removing spam and trolls, but making value judgements on the worthiness of ideas is another matter.

I Run Bartertown
Nov 27, 2011 - 11:11am

FFS!

With to Xty, and an overall H/T to the Mods, I'd suggest that:

"a people", ANY people, cannot/should not be allowed to:

1) take an extraordinarily active role in another Nation's foreign and domestic policies

AND simultaneously

2) play victim and engage in name-calling when said influence is discussed

Facts Are Called Hate Speech By People Who Hate Facts.

Drifter
Nov 27, 2011 - 11:23am

re: Zionist Occupation Govt & other theories

as I cruise around the net I notice that many of the folks who use key words like "zionism" frequently are most certainly anti Israeli, anti Jewish, anti anything having to do with that country or people.

Anecdotally, I've also noticed that those folks tend to post some of the nastiest hate filled & fear filled posts I see, and they are often quick to attack anyone who objects to their theories. Anti Zionism seems to go hand in hand with anti Americanism & anti Christianity. At the same time they seem to be silent about radical Islam or even protective, I wonder why.

All you have to do is check out any middle east post at Zerohedge to see these things in action. Perhaps the mods here are attempting to keep the tone a little more elevated then ZH.

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