Conspiracies, Charts and Comiskeys

Mon, Nov 21, 2011 - 10:12am

It's Monday morning of a U.S. holiday week. We should all relax. All should be well. Unfortunately, we can't and it's not. So, here we go.

As soon as London opened today, down went the metals. As I type, gold is only down $19. I say only because it was actually below 1700 for a while earlier. Silver is once again getting crushed. It is down over $1 and desperately trying to hold $31.

Regardless of the headlines and fundamentals, the trend continues from last week. We are clearly in a period of direct and active price suppression by the Fed and other centrals banks. There will again come a time when the long-term gold and silver bull markets in paper metal will re-assert themselves, until then, it is best to stay out of the way and let the Mississippi Leg Hounds do their business.

Here are your charts. First up, gold. If you look very closely at the weekly chart, you'll notice the length of the red candlestick from last week. Then, look back over that chart for other, similar-length red candlesticks. There are about 5 or 6 of them. Note that every time in the past five years, after similar bad weeks, gold has traded sideways to down for the next 8-10 weeks, sometimes even longer. Of course, there are always exceptions but, at this point, do not be surprised if gold now trades in a downward consolidation until early 2012, at the earliest.

Silver is no better. In fact, by the looks of this weekly chart, silver appears to be in an even longer-term consolidation pattern. Let's watch this pattern closely over the next few weeks. As first mentioned back in September, do not be surprised if silver ultimately falls all the way back to the primary trendline from 2008, currently near $24-25. I'm not sure I will take any new trading positions until/unless it does.

OK, onto the conspiracy section. If you haven't already, I urge you to take a moment to read this:

Very interesting stuff, huh? Let's see...withhold intervention just long enough to force out Silvio and replace him with your own "company man". From this vantage point, it certainly looks to have happened. Just another nail in freedom's coffin.

Lastly, I finally got a chance to visit with Jim Comiskey yesterday. The poor guy's head is still spinning and I ultimately had to cut him off after about 45 minutes. It's a rambling conversation that kind of drifts from detail to conjecture to personal point of view. Some of you will enjoy it. Some of you may find it maddening. Here it is anyway. Yours to listen to, if you choose.

OK. that's all for now. Don't expect any miracles today. Just sit back and watch the fireworks. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 21, 2011 - 10:15am

Just another Crimex

expiration hammerslam session. Nothing to see here.

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:20am

Everythings down

Stock markets, gold, silver, all in the Red. Maybe we have the 2008 crash. Just have to sit and ride it out

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:23am
Nov 21, 2011 - 10:31am

I hate this ride

It is so hard to watch the beat downs in gold and silver that never fail to happen. Psychologically, it's taking a toll on me. However, if silver dips below $30 I will be a buyer. I have a hard time believing it will fall below $26 or so, but who knows at this point. God bless to all of you.

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:31am


pretty used to now,

it does give you confidence to have some metal though!

It's like they are hiding around every corner trying to scare you, and after awhile it's just not that scary anymore.

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:32am

Take it all in and enjoy

Take it all in and enjoy folks!

Will these next weeks/months be a great buying opportunity?

One that many have said in the past may be the last?

Prepare for turbulence.

You know what? I've found myself buying food/water/tools/guns/ammo rather than PMs lately.

I am still conflicted about the other side of all of this. I'll be making more of an effort to go off grid rather than brain power going to financials/economy/PMs/wealth preservation...just sharing...


Nov 21, 2011 - 10:33am

Expirations, Super Committee, Euro death?, Oh My!

Converging in one spot, at one time. What could possibly happen over this long holiday weekend? What are the group expectations? Is this......The End?

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:36am

Hope you are wrong.

With European bond yields going up, everybody except Italian banks and EC buying Italian bonds, the Japanese, hedge funds etc. running to the doors, I would be scared to get out of PM's. Now statements that the Euro is going down, and main stream media in Ireland, and I am sure elsewhere, saying move your money to Australian dollars, gold as the inevitable cannot be stopped.

I have to imagine with all the regular folks moving cash, after I am sure the wealthy have already done, we will see banks start to fall fairly soon.

I realize the EE may still be able to control PM prices and will have heightened incentive to do so at this time, but when it all falls apart, I can't imagine they will keep in control. Stay long, stay strong.

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:38am

Same old, same old

It is remarkable how often these Sunday night beat downs have worked. Little wonder that the EE keeps doing it.

This pattern of trading works because the market is so very thin. Mostly traded by technicians now who read the charts too. Very little signs of conviction buying. Little signs of common sense either. Miners are so undervalued that I just can't stay away from them now. Not buying on margin, but would rather have what dough I have (not converted to bullion) invested in companies of value rather than sitting in a brokerage account or worse, in government bonds.

Sure, these miners could (and will likely) fall more, but you'll have to be very quick to catch them at the lows. Many of the small producers are trading under 3 times next years cash flows. Stock price is so beat down that those short of cash are unlikely to dilute and are more likely to cut cost. Hmm, falling production with increased Central Bank buying is most likely to cause a change in direction eventually. Just tough to hang on until it does.

Nov 21, 2011 - 10:41am

Gold moves with stocks ( until decoupling)

I've been following this manipulation thing for a while and here's what I'm starting to think: At first I bought into the whole "every move in the price of gold and silver ( especially silver ) is manipulated by the Banksters.

Not so sure now. Why is it that gold and silver mostly are moving down when stocks are and PMs are up when stocks are up? It's just deflationary forces at play. I do believe PMs are in a long term secular bull. and I do believe gold and silver will seriously outperform stocks over the next few years. But, what we're seeing is just a secular bull market with its inevitable corrections. Corrections which are just part of normal investor psychology.

Sure, there is some manipulation.....but all markets are manipulated. Stocks are "manipulated" when hedge funds and institutions go in to buy big blocks...they try to purchase in a way that least affects the market usually. So, while I do believe there is some, run of the mill manipulation....It is not much different than the manipulation that happens in the other markets.

I mean the stock market's getting hammered today, gold and silver and down big too....and the dollar is up today. When the stock market has been has silver and gold. How come the manipulation in the metals isn't when stocks are going up? I mean, for the most part.....PMs are moving with stocks lately. This is just how it works. Bernanke will eventually print the US dollar into oblivion most likely which will begin the bubble phase of gold. Stocks will probably respond well for a while, until inflationary pressures take over and stocks roll over. At this point there will be a decoupling of PMS and stocks.

This is just the markets playing themselves out in this point in history. The moves occuring in gold and silver are just due to investor psychology. Silver goes parabolic earlier this year. The parabola gets broken. Silver then consolidates for many many months....It's just technical. All parabolic moves end badly whether for stocks or commodities. I know about the 5 margin hikes for silver....but do we really think Silver was just going to keep going up like that. I guess it wouldn't have collapsed so badly without the yeah that is some 'manipulation'. But to see every down day in gold and silver as huge market manipulation by the puppet masters....I think is to miss the big picture which is investor psychology playing itself out in a secular bull market with the intermediate short term deflationary moves corresponding to dollar rallies which, coincidentally is having the same effect on stocks.

I realize I may get salvoed for goring the sacred bull of bankster manipulation day by day, minute by minute on the PMS. I think we tend to get too worked up and conspiratorial. But, it's the conclusion I'm beginning to believe.

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