You're Only Right Once

Thu, Nov 17, 2011 - 9:37pm

Yes, I'm sorry to say that The Great Turd Ferguson launched his anonymous and inglorious retail stock brokerage career at a bucketshop called PaineWebber some 20+ years ago. I learned a lot of useless things there but one thing I carry with me to this day is a healthy respect for Art Cashin, who was then director of floor operations for the once-proud firm. Art has always been a quick wit and sage source of wisdom. One of my favorite "Cashinisms" is: "You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because it's only going to happen once". I've often referred back to this line whenever I've needed to temper my cynical/bearish/apocalyptic worldview. Tonight, I should probably heed Art's advice once more. The problem is...well, you get the idea.

If you haven't yet, you need to take the time to read the two links below. Both have been prominently mentioned in the comments section of the previous thread but they need the wider broadcast that a promotion to this main thread can give them. First up, this doozy from Crazy Annie Barnhardt. I don't know Ann. I'd never even heard of her before this whole MFing Global disaster. However, she seems nice enough...perhaps a little "eccentric"... but certainly very experienced and knowledgeable regarding futures and options trading. What she has written is alarmingly prescient. Read it now. If you read it earlier, read it again. Now.

Next is a brand new missive from Mike Krieger. (By the way, if anyone knows how to contact this dude, please let me know. I've got to get him on a podcast.) I'm not a big Bilderberger/TrilateralCommission guy. Some of you are and that's fine. Regardless, Mike makes some excellent points about what is happening behind the scenes and he wraps everything into a nice, little "you must own gold" knot at the end.

Look, events are now unfolding at a frighteningly fast pace. If you or I had the time and the brainpower to see the whole picture and connect the dots, perhaps we'd be able to accurately predict what is coming. I'm afraid that, in the end, it will only all be clear in hindsight. What can be clearly seen, though, is that the current global political and economic structure, which has dominated for over sixty years, is rapidly dissolving. What emerges from the other side is still anyone's guess. You must stay alert. Now is not the time to rely upon hope.

Yes, predicting the end of the world is a fool's errand. Conversely, understanding that momentous changes are upon us and preparing accordingly is the work of the wise. TF

10:10 am EST UPDATE:

Yuck. Looks like the laughs are going to continue into today.

I see that some are claiming that margin hikes in Shanghai are to blame for yesterday's drop in silver. This cracks me up. What nonsense. Anyone making this claim should be sent to the "Cartel Disinformation Agent" file until further notice. Additionally, I want nothing to do with paper silver right now. Owning paper silver is like taking a flight on "Con Air". No thanks.

I've also seen that Crazy Ann's letter is getting picked up by some national sources. Here's one of them:

The selling came back today about an hour before the Comex opened and has continued unabated since. As you can see below, the $1711 level must be watched very closely today.

More as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 17, 2011 - 10:18pm

we already know what's coming

they've been exposed so many times. it's just so devious...we can't even believe it

kliguy38 Tyler
Nov 17, 2011 - 10:24pm

Mr. Tyler.....Precisely

that is exactly what they count on. The audacity and size of the game makes most of the sheeple incapable of comprehending just how detailed the corruption and planning would have to be. They also condition us with countless absurd conspiracies that divert the attention away from Le Grande Plan. Brilliant and devious but certainly effective. Oh well just sit back and watch the next acts. I'm sure by now Mr. Turd has been contacted by a new friend or two that has enlightened him AND warned him while looking out for his "best interest"....when you play on the grand stage you must not cross the line.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:26pm

Cold War Update: Western power vs. China


Round 1: US invaded Iraq, spent tons of money, but China got the oil contract, and US military got kicked out of Iraq. Winner: China.

Round 2: US invaded Afghanistan, installed Karzai, and bailed out Karzai's brother, but now Karzai tried to build trade ties with China. Winner: unknown at this point.

Round 3: Libya's Ghadaffi wanted to make oil deal with China, so he got overthrown militarily. Gold and oil seized. Winner: France & US.

Round 4: the war now includes South East Asia. China financed ports in Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Burma. China claims ownership of South China Sea's oil and gas. US pushed its proxy, Philippines, to challenge China's territorial claim. Vietnam and Philippine awarded contract for oil exploration to Exxon (US company), Talisman Energy (Canadian company), and Forum Energy (UK company). China said, "Give us access too, make the exploration a joint venture". US said, "Won't give you any share of it. Bye". US strengthens base in Australia, and trains its proxy Australia.

Sounds like fiction? Well, take a look at the following puzzle pieces:

"The Philippines will press for a resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea when Southeast Asian leaders meet today with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who has sought to keep the issue out of regional forums. "This is not an issue that can be isolated between China and the Philippines," Ricky Carandang, a spokesman for President Benigno Aquino, told reporters yesterday. "This is an issue that involves many countries in the region, and the more we’re able to discuss this in an atmosphere of candor brings us closer to ultimately finding some kind of solution." The Philippines has called on the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to facilitate talks with China over disputed areas of the South China Sea that contain oil and gas resources. The bloc’s leaders will also meet later today with U.S. President Barack Obama, whose administration has pledged to bolster the naval defenses of the Philippines, a treaty ally. American military and diplomatic backing has emboldened the Philippines to press its territorial claims against China, Asia’s biggest economy and military spender. The U.S. aims to balance China in the region to ensure “there isn’t kind of a big thumb on the scale,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Manila two days ago. An agreement on boundaries would determine access to oil reserves in the South China Sea that may total as much as 213 billion barrels, according to Chinese studies cited in 2008 by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. The Philippines and Vietnam, which have awarded exploration contracts in disputed areas to Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) and Forum Energy Plc, reject China’s map of the sea as a basis for joint development."

and watch these videos as well:

Dispatch: The Broader Significance of U.S.-Australian Military Cooperation
A STRATFOR Conversation: George Friedman and Special Guest Robert Kaplan

And then look at the following map showing China's territorial claim. By the way, China requires all its scientists to use this map in all scientific publications.

Skirmishes have started:

Tensions were raised after an unarmed US navy surveillance vessel was jostled by five Chinese ships in the South China Sea last weekend. The Pentagon accused the Chinese vessels of "harassment" during the routine operations in international waters. Beijing says the US ship behaved "like a spy" and accused it of breaking international law by operating in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

It took me half an hour to write this post! I hope ya'll find it useful.

Brotha Bob
Nov 17, 2011 - 10:27pm

I just can't see it

I just can't see a way out for the sovereigns. It is TEOTWAWKI. How can it not be? The dominoes are all setup and ready to fall. The question is which will be the first, oh my god, one to fall?

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:27pm

End of the world fatigue...

I gotta admit after reading zerohedge for the last year I'm getting a bit of "end of the world" fatigue myself. Day after day it seems we hit one crisis or another and I think that ok this is it, it can't go on anymore and yet it does. As PM investors, knowing what we know about the fragility of the system, combined with the heartrending takedowns that we have to endure it's a wonder were not all on a permanent prescription for Tequilla and Xanex. Can you imagine if the DOW investors had to deal with two 30% drops this year? What makes it all the harder is it still feels like there's no end in site, Ireland blew up...nothing changed, Greece blew up...nothing changed, Italy blew up...nothing changed, CFTC mandates position trading limits...nothing changed, MFGlobal steals half a billion one goes to jail and nothing has changed. Month after month after month--since 2008--we look for backwardisation and a comex default--no sign of it yet. The new Panex exchange should be online by now shouldn't it?? But nothing has changed.

It is said that markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent. At this rate, they'll be irrational longer than I can stay sane :) It becomes clearer and clearer that they Cartel still has absolute control of the PM market and only the complete destruction of our economic AND political system can change that. The problem is, the disruption that will come with such an event will be so tremendously stressful that when it finally happens, as it must, none of us will even be able to enjoy being right.

End rant.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:37pm

Hold on To Any Dry powder Folks

Just posted this on the previous thread. I really like cut and paste;

More from Jim Willie, be sure to read his article on the link;

OR Here;

"The CME has advised that 1.42 million ounces of registered COMEX silver inventory is unavailable for delivery due to MF Global bankruptcy, as well as 16,645 registered ounces of gold also unavailable for delivery. That is a lot of bullion in breach of contract. The lawyers will be lined up very quickly to carve the metals exchanges into pieces. The COMEX is totally broken, unable to honor basic contracts, unable to deliver from committed legal contracts, unable to even protect client funds from commingling grabs. But during a period when investors cannot protect themselves, an ambush could easily come in the next week to push down the Gold price in the usual manner, via naked shorting. As the grandiose destinations become clear for vast new monetary creation, the Gold & Silver prices will run higher."

He can be long winded (Like I should know these things.), and some of the most important things are said in a short sentence, but he's one guy that can really lay out the fundamentals of the changing world.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:38pm


Many of the senior Americans have their hope in their 401K's that are now worth 201K's. They saved their cash and some have $200,000 in a savings account drawing about $80 per month. Their SS check and their savings account money are dripping like a leaky hose and in time will be empty. Now we have this awful future ahead of us in which the evil of the world has not been held in check and most will suffer. There was a quote in an old book called the Archko Volume where it was stated "There is nothing worse in the whole world than to see an old man cry". Well, we have that to face also.

We have allowed the enemy to have the control of everything because we have been told to be politically, morally, spiritually, and relationshiply correct. Those on OWS have their issues but it is to late and they are barking up the wrong trees. The time is coming and now is where we need some sound wisdom from the grey haired seniors who have paid the price to stand in this mess. Peace to you tonight.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:43pm


What makes anyone think that somehow, somewhere there is someone or an organization or an agency that will stop the corruption. I would be very interested in a list of agencies that will correct the destruction. Or, a list of legislators that will turn the situation around... Or, a dynamic leader that will come to the forefront...If none...then where do we invest? If nowhere, who do we complain to...If none, why do we have elections...If none, how does one take back the country...How do we bankrupt Wall Street and Washington? Is that all that is left? Playing devils advocate except the devil is on the other side of the street.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:44pm


Occupy Turd Street... I am the 49%!

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:45pm

Pied Piper of Hamelin

Maybe what is needed is a good story like the Pied Piper to lead all the crafty little rats out of town never to be seen or heard of again.

In a retail bullpen @ Piper Jaffray I learned all that is required to make your month is a good story bond and make it all in a days work.

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