You're Only Right Once

Thu, Nov 17, 2011 - 9:37pm

Yes, I'm sorry to say that The Great Turd Ferguson launched his anonymous and inglorious retail stock brokerage career at a bucketshop called PaineWebber some 20+ years ago. I learned a lot of useless things there but one thing I carry with me to this day is a healthy respect for Art Cashin, who was then director of floor operations for the once-proud firm. Art has always been a quick wit and sage source of wisdom. One of my favorite "Cashinisms" is: "You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because it's only going to happen once". I've often referred back to this line whenever I've needed to temper my cynical/bearish/apocalyptic worldview. Tonight, I should probably heed Art's advice once more. The problem is...well, you get the idea.

If you haven't yet, you need to take the time to read the two links below. Both have been prominently mentioned in the comments section of the previous thread but they need the wider broadcast that a promotion to this main thread can give them. First up, this doozy from Crazy Annie Barnhardt. I don't know Ann. I'd never even heard of her before this whole MFing Global disaster. However, she seems nice enough...perhaps a little "eccentric"... but certainly very experienced and knowledgeable regarding futures and options trading. What she has written is alarmingly prescient. Read it now. If you read it earlier, read it again. Now.

Next is a brand new missive from Mike Krieger. (By the way, if anyone knows how to contact this dude, please let me know. I've got to get him on a podcast.) I'm not a big Bilderberger/TrilateralCommission guy. Some of you are and that's fine. Regardless, Mike makes some excellent points about what is happening behind the scenes and he wraps everything into a nice, little "you must own gold" knot at the end.

Look, events are now unfolding at a frighteningly fast pace. If you or I had the time and the brainpower to see the whole picture and connect the dots, perhaps we'd be able to accurately predict what is coming. I'm afraid that, in the end, it will only all be clear in hindsight. What can be clearly seen, though, is that the current global political and economic structure, which has dominated for over sixty years, is rapidly dissolving. What emerges from the other side is still anyone's guess. You must stay alert. Now is not the time to rely upon hope. 

Yes, predicting the end of the world is a fool's errand. Conversely, understanding that momentous changes are upon us and preparing accordingly is the work of the wise. TF

10:10 am EST UPDATE:

Yuck. Looks like the laughs are going to continue into today.

I see that some are claiming that margin hikes in Shanghai are to blame for yesterday's drop in silver. This cracks me up. What nonsense. Anyone making this claim should be sent to the "Cartel Disinformation Agent" file until further notice. Additionally, I want nothing to do with paper silver right now. Owning paper silver is like taking a flight on "Con Air". No thanks.

I've also seen that Crazy Ann's letter is getting picked up by some national sources. Here's one of them:

The selling came back today about an hour before the Comex opened and has continued unabated since. As you can see below, the $1711 level must be watched very closely today.


More as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


DiamondEddie · Nov 17, 2011 - 9:39pm


"You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because it's only going to happen once"


Thanks for the goodies tonight, TF. You are awesome.

AlienEyes · Nov 17, 2011 - 9:48pm


I think it might not be the end of the world but it is looking like the end of our world more and more each day.

Looks like this will end like a box of shit with a big spring in the bottom. Time to ammo-up.

Shill · Nov 17, 2011 - 9:48pm

TPTB kill the internet one

TPTB kill the internet one better have a back up plan otherwise your cut off.

56K modems will still function through phone lines ( Tin foil hat ) Emergency alert system lol ok sure. More like a test of what works and what doesn't, of course this is only my warped opinion, I trust none of these people we've witnessed what they are capable of.

Prepare accordingly..

Turd, great post.

¤ · Nov 17, 2011 - 9:49pm

Thanks TF

Appreciated as always.

Had my dad get out of the market entirely today around 12:30. 

I've seen enough. Edge of precipice stuff.

Funny how the MSM isn't talking about next weeks Super Committee budget deal deadline and a possible further credit downgrade if it doesn't get done. Fun, wow.

Gramp · Nov 17, 2011 - 9:53pm

Seems like a giant game of

Seems like a giant game of Risk for TPTB, set forth a sequence of events, then marshal vast resources to channel the profits and desired outcome. All the while instilling fear/ uncertainty among the heard...

DiamondEddie AlienEyes · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:00pm

Maybe TF can put up a ticker

Maybe TF can put up a ticker for brass and lead? smiley

hiway117 · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:00pm


Hey Turd - while you were at Paine Webber, I was at Mutha Merrill. Thought it'd be appropriate to post the following (assuming the sky is actually not falling): Bob Farrell's 10 Rules of Investing Markets tend to return to the mean over time. When stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. Euphoria and pessimism can cloud people’s heads. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose perspective. 2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction. Think of the market baseline as attached to a rubber string. Any action too far in one direction not only brings you back to the baseline, but leads to an overshoot in the opposite direction. 3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent Whatever the latest hot sector is, it eventually overheats, mean reverts, and then overshoots. As the fever builds, a chorus of “this time it’s different” will be heard, even if those exact words are never used. And of course, it – human nature – is never different. 4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Regardless of how hot a sector is, don’t expect a plateau to work off the excesses. Profits are locked in by selling, and that invariably leads to a significant correction eventually. 5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom. That’s why contrarian-minded investors can make good money if they follow the sentiment indicators and have good timing. Watch Investors Intelligence (measuring the mood of more than 100 investment newsletter writers) and the American Association of Individual Investors Survey. 6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold. Gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism”, says Santa Clara University finance professor Meir Statman. His studies of investor behavior show that “Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.” 7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names This is why breadth and volume are so important. Think of it as strength in numbers. Broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. Watch for when momentum channels into a small number of stocks. 8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. 9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: “If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?” Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest. 10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets Especially if you are long only or mandated to be fully invested. Those with more flexible charters might squeak out a smile or two here and there.

Santa's Elf · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:07pm

Great post Turd...

The end of the world may not be tomorrow, but I've spent the past few years preparing like it's going to be. Whatever the case, it's surely going to be a bumpy ride leading up to the eventual monetary system collapse.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:13pm

"If you or I had the time and

"If you or I had the time and the brainpower to see the whole picture and connect the dots, perhaps we'd be able to accurately predict what is coming. "


it's more like interpreting a rorschash blot

and that's what i accurately predict is coming. 

hell, its been violating us silver bugs for awhile. why stop now.

Tyler · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:18pm

we already know what's coming

they've been exposed so many times. it's just so devious...we can't even believe it

kliguy38 Tyler · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:24pm

Mr. Tyler.....Precisely

that is exactly what they count on. The audacity and size of the game makes most of the sheeple incapable of comprehending just how detailed the corruption and planning would have to be. They also condition us with countless absurd conspiracies that divert the attention away from Le Grande Plan. Brilliant and devious but certainly effective. Oh well just sit back and watch the next acts. I'm sure by now Mr. Turd has been contacted by a new friend or two that has enlightened him AND warned him while looking out for his "best interest"....when you play on the grand stage you must not cross the line.

CreditCrumbs · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:26pm

Cold War Update: Western power vs. China


Round 1: US invaded Iraq, spent tons of money, but China got the oil contract, and US military got kicked out of Iraq. Winner: China.

Round 2: US invaded Afghanistan, installed Karzai, and bailed out Karzai's brother, but now Karzai tried to build trade ties with China. Winner: unknown at this point. 

Round 3: Libya's Ghadaffi wanted to make oil deal with China, so he got overthrown militarily. Gold and oil seized. Winner: France & US. 

Round 4: the war now includes South East Asia. China financed ports in Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Burma. China claims ownership of South China Sea's oil and gas. US pushed its proxy, Philippines, to challenge China's territorial claim. Vietnam and Philippine awarded contract for oil exploration to Exxon (US company), Talisman Energy (Canadian company), and Forum Energy (UK company). China said, "Give us access too, make the exploration a joint venture". US said, "Won't give you any share of it. Bye". US strengthens base in Australia, and trains its proxy Australia. 

Sounds like fiction? Well, take a look at the following puzzle pieces: 

 "The Philippines will press for a resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea when Southeast Asian leaders meet today with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who has sought to keep the issue out of regional forums. "This is not an issue that can be isolated between China and the Philippines," Ricky Carandang, a spokesman for President Benigno Aquino, told reporters yesterday. "This is an issue that involves many countries in the region, and the more we’re able to discuss this in an atmosphere of candor brings us closer to ultimately finding some kind of solution." The Philippines has called on the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to facilitate talks with China over disputed areas of the South China Sea that contain oil and gas resources. The bloc’s leaders will also meet later today with U.S. President Barack Obama, whose administration has pledged to bolster the naval defenses of the Philippines, a treaty ally. American military and diplomatic backing has emboldened the Philippines to press its territorial claims against China, Asia’s biggest economy and military spender. The U.S. aims to balance China in the region to ensure “there isn’t kind of a big thumb on the scale,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Manila two days ago. An agreement on boundaries would determine access to oil reserves in the South China Sea that may total as much as 213 billion barrels, according to Chinese studies cited in 2008 by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. The Philippines and Vietnam, which have awarded exploration contracts in disputed areas to Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) and Forum Energy Plc, reject China’s map of the sea as a basis for joint development."

and watch these videos as well: 

Dispatch: The Broader Significance of U.S.-Australian Military Cooperation
A STRATFOR Conversation: George Friedman and Special Guest Robert Kaplan

And then look at the following map showing China's territorial claim. By the way, China requires all its scientists to use this map in all scientific publications. 

Skirmishes have started: 

 Tensions were raised after an unarmed US navy surveillance vessel was jostled by five Chinese ships in the South China Sea last weekend. The Pentagon accused the Chinese vessels of "harassment" during the routine operations in international waters. Beijing says the US ship behaved "like a spy" and accused it of breaking international law by operating in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

It took me half an hour to write this post! I hope ya'll find it useful. 

Brotha Bob · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:27pm

I just can't see it

I just can't see a way out for the sovereigns. It is TEOTWAWKI. How can it not be? The dominoes are all setup and ready to fall. The question is which will be the first, oh my god, one to fall?

pforth · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:27pm

End of the world fatigue...

I gotta admit after reading zerohedge for the last year I'm getting a bit of "end of the world" fatigue myself. Day after day it seems we hit one crisis or another and I think that ok this is it, it can't go on anymore and yet it does. As PM investors, knowing what we know about the fragility of the system, combined with the heartrending takedowns that we have to endure it's a wonder were not all on a permanent prescription for Tequilla and Xanex. Can you imagine if the DOW investors had to deal with two 30% drops this year? What makes it all the harder is it still feels like there's no end in site, Ireland blew up...nothing changed, Greece blew up...nothing changed, Italy blew up...nothing changed, CFTC mandates position trading limits...nothing changed, MFGlobal steals half a billion one goes to jail and nothing has changed. Month after month after month--since 2008--we look for backwardisation and a comex default--no sign of it yet. The new Panex exchange should be online by now shouldn't it?? But nothing has changed.

It is said that markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent. At this rate, they'll be irrational longer than I can stay sane :) It becomes clearer and clearer that they Cartel still has absolute control of the PM market and only the complete destruction of our economic AND political system can change that. The problem is, the disruption that will come with such an event will be so tremendously stressful that when it finally happens, as it must, none of us will even be able to enjoy being right.

End rant.

JackPutter · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:37pm

Hold on To Any Dry powder Folks

Just posted this on the previous thread. I really like cut and paste;

More from Jim Willie, be sure to read his article on the link;

OR Here;

"The CME has advised that 1.42 million ounces of registered COMEX silver inventory is unavailable for delivery due to MF Global bankruptcy, as well as 16,645 registered ounces of gold also unavailable for delivery. That is a lot of bullion in breach of contract. The lawyers will be lined up very quickly to carve the metals exchanges into pieces. The COMEX is totally broken, unable to honor basic contracts, unable to deliver from committed legal contracts, unable to even protect client funds from commingling grabs. But during a period when investors cannot protect themselves, an ambush could easily come in the next week to push down the Gold price in the usual manner, via naked shorting. As the grandiose destinations become clear for vast new monetary creation, the Gold & Silver prices will run higher."

He can be long winded (Like I should know these things.), and some of the most important things are said in a short sentence, but he's one guy that can really lay out the fundamentals of the changing world.

NW VIEW · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:38pm


Many of the senior Americans have their hope in their 401K's that are now worth 201K's. They saved their cash and some have $200,000 in a savings account drawing about $80 per month. Their SS check and their savings account money are dripping like a leaky hose and in time will be empty. Now we have this awful future ahead of us in which the evil of the world has not been held in check and most will suffer. There was a quote in an old book called the Archko Volume where it was stated "There is nothing worse in the whole world than to see an old man cry". Well, we have that to face also.

We have allowed the enemy to have the control of everything because we have been told to be politically, morally, spiritually, and relationshiply correct. Those on OWS have their issues but it is to late and they are barking up the wrong trees. The time is coming and now is where we need some sound wisdom from the grey haired seniors who have paid the price to stand in this mess. Peace to you tonight. 

lakedweller2 · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:43pm


What makes anyone think that somehow, somewhere there is someone or an organization or an agency that will stop the corruption. I would be very interested in a list of agencies that will correct the destruction. Or, a list of legislators that will turn the situation around... Or, a dynamic leader that will come to the forefront...If none...then where do we invest? If nowhere, who do we complain to...If none, why do we have elections...If none, how does one take back the country...How do we bankrupt Wall Street and Washington? Is that all that is left? Playing devils advocate except the devil is on the other side of the street.

johnboatcat · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:44pm


Occupy Turd Street... I am the 49%!

Patrancus · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:45pm

Pied Piper of Hamelin

Maybe what is needed is a good story like the Pied Piper to lead all the crafty little rats out of town never to be seen or heard of again. 

In a retail bullpen @ Piper Jaffray I learned all that is required to make your month is a good story bond and make it all in a days work. 

johnboatcat · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:46pm

Good night.

I'll see you bunch of yack-off's tomorrow.

question · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:46pm

There is No Brighter Future Ahead

As Joe Bob Briggs said of many of his movies he hosted "Anything can happen at any time".

Life's uncertain, eat desert first.

maravich44 · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:49pm

.@NW View. ..and,

..trouble be-hind.* And you that notion just crossed my mind*

OC15 · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:53pm

Brad Pitt's blot

Looks to me like the devil sticking his head between his legs and kissing his ass goodbye.

Prize Fighter · Nov 17, 2011 - 10:57pm

Ann Barnhardt quit paying her

Ann Barnhardt quit paying her federal taxes. In her Oct 18th blog post she called for a Tax Strike. In her Nov. 4th post she claims to have quit herself. From what I saw a good bit of her blog is about impotent Christian men and Muslim pedophiles but one thing is for sure, whatever she believes she firmly and unapologetically says it. I'm just glad she's on our side.

YouTube Channel

Dr Durden · Nov 17, 2011 - 11:01pm

Sold all my physical

And bought BAC.

What's the matter, jealous?

Paper. Ponzi. 4eva!

Hey, what a better way to celebrate blood all over the charts than to get behind your Turd!?! Y'all have PP accounts, so use them. Feed tha Turd! Feed tha Turd! Feed tha Turd!

Thanks Turd for always looking after your Turdites. You don't have to, but you do. You're a good man.

brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother · Nov 17, 2011 - 11:07pm


you must be more of a glass half full person than i.

the head that you see i saw a bit differently ;)

i'd be more than happy to accept your interpretation instead though.


johnboatcat · Nov 17, 2011 - 11:11pm

Brad Pitt's blot 2

Guy on a motorcycle trying to get out of town with what is left of his phyzz.

RedRover · Nov 17, 2011 - 11:18pm

Thank you, Turd

Ok. Got it. Yeah Annie B, she's a force
to be reckoned with. Good for her, she's right.

Here we are sitting on the edge of the cliff, like the cover of "where the sidewalk ends".
I'm out on the edge, looking for black swans. Lol, no really! Cheers! So, where
does everyone think silver will be, on 12/30 @12:30 EsT?

p.s. Peter Schiff, on silver

JackPutter · Nov 17, 2011 - 11:24pm

That Rorschach

Looks like a Guy Ridin' his hog or;

A guy jackhammering with his membership badge.

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Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
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12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
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11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
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Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales