You're Only Right Once

Thu, Nov 17, 2011 - 9:37pm

Yes, I'm sorry to say that The Great Turd Ferguson launched his anonymous and inglorious retail stock brokerage career at a bucketshop called PaineWebber some 20+ years ago. I learned a lot of useless things there but one thing I carry with me to this day is a healthy respect for Art Cashin, who was then director of floor operations for the once-proud firm. Art has always been a quick wit and sage source of wisdom. One of my favorite "Cashinisms" is: "You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because it's only going to happen once". I've often referred back to this line whenever I've needed to temper my cynical/bearish/apocalyptic worldview. Tonight, I should probably heed Art's advice once more. The problem is...well, you get the idea.

If you haven't yet, you need to take the time to read the two links below. Both have been prominently mentioned in the comments section of the previous thread but they need the wider broadcast that a promotion to this main thread can give them. First up, this doozy from Crazy Annie Barnhardt. I don't know Ann. I'd never even heard of her before this whole MFing Global disaster. However, she seems nice enough...perhaps a little "eccentric"... but certainly very experienced and knowledgeable regarding futures and options trading. What she has written is alarmingly prescient. Read it now. If you read it earlier, read it again. Now.

Next is a brand new missive from Mike Krieger. (By the way, if anyone knows how to contact this dude, please let me know. I've got to get him on a podcast.) I'm not a big Bilderberger/TrilateralCommission guy. Some of you are and that's fine. Regardless, Mike makes some excellent points about what is happening behind the scenes and he wraps everything into a nice, little "you must own gold" knot at the end.

Look, events are now unfolding at a frighteningly fast pace. If you or I had the time and the brainpower to see the whole picture and connect the dots, perhaps we'd be able to accurately predict what is coming. I'm afraid that, in the end, it will only all be clear in hindsight. What can be clearly seen, though, is that the current global political and economic structure, which has dominated for over sixty years, is rapidly dissolving. What emerges from the other side is still anyone's guess. You must stay alert. Now is not the time to rely upon hope.

Yes, predicting the end of the world is a fool's errand. Conversely, understanding that momentous changes are upon us and preparing accordingly is the work of the wise. TF

10:10 am EST UPDATE:

Yuck. Looks like the laughs are going to continue into today.

I see that some are claiming that margin hikes in Shanghai are to blame for yesterday's drop in silver. This cracks me up. What nonsense. Anyone making this claim should be sent to the "Cartel Disinformation Agent" file until further notice. Additionally, I want nothing to do with paper silver right now. Owning paper silver is like taking a flight on "Con Air". No thanks.

I've also seen that Crazy Ann's letter is getting picked up by some national sources. Here's one of them:

The selling came back today about an hour before the Comex opened and has continued unabated since. As you can see below, the $1711 level must be watched very closely today.

More as conditions warrant. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 17, 2011 - 9:39pm


"You never want to go around predicting the end of the world because it's only going to happen once"


Thanks for the goodies tonight, TF. You are awesome.

Nov 17, 2011 - 9:48pm


I think it might not be the end of the world but it is looking like the end of our world more and more each day.

Looks like this will end like a box of shit with a big spring in the bottom. Time to ammo-up.

Nov 17, 2011 - 9:48pm

TPTB kill the internet one

TPTB kill the internet one better have a back up plan otherwise your cut off.

56K modems will still function through phone lines ( Tin foil hat ) Emergency alert system lol ok sure. More like a test of what works and what doesn't, of course this is only my warped opinion, I trust none of these people we've witnessed what they are capable of.

Prepare accordingly..

Turd, great post.

Nov 17, 2011 - 9:49pm

Thanks TF

Appreciated as always.

Had my dad get out of the market entirely today around 12:30.

I've seen enough. Edge of precipice stuff.

Funny how the MSM isn't talking about next weeks Super Committee budget deal deadline and a possible further credit downgrade if it doesn't get done. Fun, wow.

Nov 17, 2011 - 9:53pm

Seems like a giant game of

Seems like a giant game of Risk for TPTB, set forth a sequence of events, then marshal vast resources to channel the profits and desired outcome. All the while instilling fear/ uncertainty among the heard...

DiamondEddie AlienEyes
Nov 17, 2011 - 10:00pm

Maybe TF can put up a ticker

Maybe TF can put up a ticker for brass and lead?

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:00pm


Hey Turd - while you were at Paine Webber, I was at Mutha Merrill. Thought it'd be appropriate to post the following (assuming the sky is actually not falling): Bob Farrell's 10 Rules of Investing Markets tend to return to the mean over time. When stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. Euphoria and pessimism can cloud people’s heads. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose perspective. 2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an excess in the opposite direction. Think of the market baseline as attached to a rubber string. Any action too far in one direction not only brings you back to the baseline, but leads to an overshoot in the opposite direction. 3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent Whatever the latest hot sector is, it eventually overheats, mean reverts, and then overshoots. As the fever builds, a chorus of “this time it’s different” will be heard, even if those exact words are never used. And of course, it – human nature – is never different. 4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Regardless of how hot a sector is, don’t expect a plateau to work off the excesses. Profits are locked in by selling, and that invariably leads to a significant correction eventually. 5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom. That’s why contrarian-minded investors can make good money if they follow the sentiment indicators and have good timing. Watch Investors Intelligence (measuring the mood of more than 100 investment newsletter writers) and the American Association of Individual Investors Survey. 6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold. Gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism”, says Santa Clara University finance professor Meir Statman. His studies of investor behavior show that “Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.” 7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names This is why breadth and volume are so important. Think of it as strength in numbers. Broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. Watch for when momentum channels into a small number of stocks. 8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. 9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: “If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?” Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest. 10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets Especially if you are long only or mandated to be fully invested. Those with more flexible charters might squeak out a smile or two here and there.

Santa's Elf
Nov 17, 2011 - 10:07pm

Great post Turd...

The end of the world may not be tomorrow, but I've spent the past few years preparing like it's going to be. Whatever the case, it's surely going to be a bumpy ride leading up to the eventual monetary system collapse.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:13pm

"If you or I had the time and

"If you or I had the time and the brainpower to see the whole picture and connect the dots, perhaps we'd be able to accurately predict what is coming. "


it's more like interpreting a rorschash blot

and that's what i accurately predict is coming.

hell, its been violating us silver bugs for awhile. why stop now.

Nov 17, 2011 - 10:15pm

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