Nervous Overnight

120
Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 11:22pm

I don't like the looks of this. Sharp evening (U.S.) drops always get my attention. Sharp drops that occur on Tuesday evenings (after the weekly CoT survey) always raise my suspicion.

About two hours ago, gold on the Globex began to tank. It fell about $10 in an hour. That's a lot for 8:00 pm NY time but, in fairness, stock futures and crude fell, too. Then, at around 9:00 pm, The Pig started to rally. Not much, really, only about 25 cents (basis points). Of course, some algos then clicked in and trimmed another 7-8 dollars off of the gold price. Once again, gold rallies on a somewhat neutral field (Comex) only to have the gains clawed back on the easily-manipulated Globex.

So, now, we've got to be careful. The only green I have on my screen at present is the POSX. Euro down. Stocks down. Crude down. Grains down. And, of course, PMs down. ZH offers this explanation:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-usd-rollercoaster-goes-down-goldman-stop-losses-are-triggered

The problem is that both metals, but in particular silver, are very close to some important trendlines. If those lines fail, we will see considerable further weakness. Silver must be watched very closely as a strong move down through $34 could mean that a drop toward 32 or even 30 might be around the corner. Gold isn't quite as precarious as it could move to 1750 and even 1700 without completely disrupting the trends from the September lows.

Lastly, just for fun, I wanted to pass along this video clip that was emailed to me over the weekend. Apparently, it is an editorial from an Aussie television network. Too bad honesty and forthrightness have completely evaporated from American media. At least it can be found down under.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaugVRQkbVs&feature=player_embedded#at=32

More in the morning. TF

p.s. I spoke with Jim Comiskey this evening. He and everyone else at MFing Global was summarily dismissed last Friday. He's landed on his feet and is ready to lash out. And he's pissed. We hope to record a special podcast soon so that he can get a few things off his chest. I'll keep you posted.

9:45 a.m. EST UPDATE:

​You could probably sense in the tone of the post above that I had a bad feeling about today and...here we go.

After rebounding overnight, gold just got crushed for about $15 in five minutes. Silver puked, too. Again and to reiterate, it is very important that silver stay near or above $34. A convincing move down through and close below 34 would indicate 32 or even 30. Gold needs to hold 1750 but only a drop below 1705 would be cause for serious concern.

Lots of bad stuff bubbling below the surface this morning. Gonzalo Lira just sent me his latest and I urge you to take 2 minutes to read it right now.

https://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/11/were-in-middle-of-run-on-europeand-its.html

Hang in there and be cautious. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  120 Comments

Stormdancer
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:17am

Oh boy....

You guys need to read that article Turd just posted. Wow...an amazing thing coming from inside China and actually spoken in public?

Unfortunately, it's not hard to imagine Lang's family receiving a bill for a bullet in the near future.......

Edit: I'm late as usual I see :)


Nov 16, 2011 - 10:18am
Aram
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:18am

GEAB Nr. 59

Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin GEAB Nr. 59

  • 30 trillions of USD ghost-assets to disappear from now to beginning 2013
  • USD to go down 30% in 2012
  • End 2011, will see, as foreseen, the detonator of European public debts trigger the explosion of the US bomb.
  • Strategic military relationship US-Europe: by 2017 the last US soldier will have left the European continent (enfin libres!).

Read the whole summary (Latinists version only)

exiledbear
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:26am

I did say this week would be somewhat crappy

Usually the open sets the tone for the week. This week's open lacked conviction, and we've pretty much seen that.

If the test at 1750 doesn't hold, I'd suspect 1700 would be next. The gold market is manipulated, but the basic rules still apply, as long as you're open to things going down as much as going up.

Like SGS, don't stress too much over the paper price. 1oz Krugerrands have been consistently north of 1800 for a while now, and the price action there is firmer and less volatile.

Yooper Rick
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:26am

Internet Censorship

The worst bill in internet history is about to become law.

https://www.thedailycrux.com/content/9214/Government_Outrage/eml


Nov 16, 2011 - 10:27am

Latin

Xty is right on target. Language provides the building blocks of ideas. The study of Latin, which consists of reading classics like Ovid (Cicero too), expands your practical vocabulary to understand the sciences, philosophy, higher thought in any form. Remember the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis? Latin is the foundation of the professional vocabulary in the English speaking world. If we don't study it in school, we have to pick up the vocabulary piecemeal as we learn our profession. Our legal system relies on it the most heavily. They keep the rest of us excluded from their profession with their unique blend of language--Latin and King James English. How many people cannot comprehend their mortgage contract on their house?

seekonksteve George Clooney
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:27am

xty signs

just sold some of my pslv at a loss . thanks for a laugh that brought tears to my eyes!


Nov 16, 2011 - 10:28am

pforth re- ignored smackdown

Honestly, I started to write something, but short of Ouch, or Here we go Again, or Arghh, or %#$%#$%^#%$$@#@^&***$%#%#$#%^*&Y(*^*&^&*^!!!!!! I wasn't sure quite what to say.

Grigeo TF
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:29am

China bankrupt?

"Lang’s assessment that the regime is bankrupt was based on five conjectures.

Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly."

Well, if China is bankrupt, what does that make us?

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

OC15
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:31am

Crude going up

Key indicator of increased probability of TSHTF

¤
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:31am

China's own QE...

...will have to happen soon enough and they'll have to let the Yuan appreciate against it while nit acknowledging their own QWE's existence.

Typical Chinese data/bookkeeping shell game. Same thing here and probably almost everywhere to some extent.

When China QE's and it's known and things go nuts in currencies is when I think China pulls out their Yuan/PM peg. Not anytime soon, but it's going to happen out of necessity at some point.

I see no alternative solutions out of this debt/liquidity crisis that makes any new paper issuance more valuable then gold. As we know, gold should be much higher right now. I think it's being attacked today because if it reflected what just happened in gold it would have blown through $1800 with ease.

Maybe last nights pre-emptive mini smack down was a indicationl that oil was about to go nuts this a.m.?

Oil's up quite a bit through the magic $100 barrier and gold gets attacked/sold off at the same time while the dollar is fairly neutral and even lost a little off it's overnight high?

The fight to keep gold capped under $1800 is on.

recaptureamerica
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:35am

Pms down because inflation

Pms down because inflation tame?

Louie Doctor J
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:35am

@Dr Jerome- Great rant

I hope that it helped to share with the community how things are going with you. You are certainly better qualified to make decisions about your rental properties than someone you have never met who posts on a blog, but have you considered what is going to happen to property values when inflation hits?

You are not alone in holding underwater real estate. The Federal Reserve, Fannie & Freddie are also holding a TON of underwater real estate. These are the people who have the power to cause inflation in order to make their real estate holdings magically profitable. I also believe that the Treasury & Fed have been trying to stoke inflation in real estate (while trying to prevent it everywhere else) in order to try and get people who are still in their homes to pay their mortgages again. We are not far from some major moves, especially with the US election less than a year away. I am sure you have thought long and hard about holding those properties, but you might think one more time before you walk away.

And YES- Whatever your reasons, BUY and HOLD PMs!!

silverstool
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:37am

Eurobond manipulation

Gonzalo's article has me thinking. The TBTF banks have been pressurising the ECB to start quantitatively easing for some time. Even Tiny Tim Geither has been over to put the thumb screws on but to no avail. As Gonzalo says, Germany is the dissenting voice. What's to stop the big banks causing a eurobond run in order to pressurise Germany into acquiescing?

recaptureamerica
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:38am

Consumer prices dip 0.1 pct.,

Consumer prices dip 0.1 pct., as gas prices drop US consumers paid less for gas and cars in October, pushing down overall prices https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-prices-dip-0-1-134352137.ht...

exiledbear
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:38am

The Chinese and asians in general

They're like puffer fish - they try to make themselves look bigger and stronger and better than they really are. Losing "face" isn't really about losing face so much as it is about losing that illusion. And of course people get pissed off when called out on a lie.

I dunno. Everyone's broke these days. But at least they're broke with factories. We're broke and we have nothing, except shipping ports and Wal-Mart.

Economical Disaster
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:41am
silverbill
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:42am

A post chock filled with light!

Thank you Dr Jerome for the chance to consider your thoughts in that imo wonderfully clear & revealing post of yours. I have done more studying & learning once I exceeded my university curriculums. I have been out of their universities for good since 1997 & I have never put down the torch. Reading & studying are my favorite things in an otherwise dubious world. fwiw I am an alum of the BIG.

Thank you again. In a darkening world the Light of Truth still does beckon me at least.

OC15
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:44am

Everyone's bankrupt

That's what happens when debt is the basis of the monetary system. Everyone is broke.

The crux of this whole scam system is them loaning you nothing (money from thin air) to collateralize your something and when you can't pay them their nothing + interest they get to take your something.

These banks aren't really "in trouble". It just appears that way if you think as a reasonable person how things should work. TPTB can always change the rules.

The whole end game is make everyone a debt slave and take all of our stuff and own us.

Just think if you could go down into your basement and bring up endless loads of cash to loan to people in exchange for the right to take their possessions. If they can't repay, did you really lose anything? You gained their possessions and still have the ability to bring up endless loads of cash to play the loan and recapture game.

ReachWest
Nov 16, 2011 - 10:44am

@ Dr Jerome

Thank-you for that very thoughtful post. And - my condolences to you for the loss of your friend.

You bring up some pivotal discussion points that deserve greater reflection. Your thoughts on the education system are bang on and I would suggest that this is one of the "key" roots of our broader problems.

My children have finally made it through the public system and are now young adults. Their time in school was eye-opening for my wife and I. We were amazed at the system that promoted memorization of mundane factoids (many false) and repetitive exercises for the sake of keeping kids busy. "Critical thinking" was never on the agenda and was basically disallowed. My kids both migrated to more technical/science/math focused curriculums because they were both so de-motivated by the rote learning process. And - of course, they never learned about real money or economics (neither did I during my school years). Learning about "real money" and economics is something that I'm still working on - it's only through self discovery - self education and research that this has been possible (and of course PM's and the PM community was what caused my eyes to be opened). I take some comfort in the fact that both my Son and Daughter are now learning about PM's and stacking (following the lead of Mom and Dad). The powers that be (the Banksters) are of course still fleecing us - but to a somewhat lesser degree than the rest of the masses.

One other thing that your post brings to mind is the shortage of honour and integrity that we have today. I am stupefied and disgusted by some of what goes on today - we see dishonourable things taking place in the financial markets daily (hour by hour). The recent and ongoing MF Global fiasco comes to mind. An honourable CEO and Board would never allow the use of client funds to cover company obligations - it just would not happen. Honourable political leaders (unfortunately this is now an oxymoron) would never allow themselves to profit from non-public information - they would never pen laws that exempt themselves from the same rules that apply to everyone else - honourable people would not even consider it. One of my favourite lines from anything ever penned is the end part to the Declaration of Independence where honour is sacred.

"We...solemly publish and declare, that these United colonies are, and of Right ought to be FREE AND INDEPENDENT STATES...And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honour."

​Powerful stuff that is sadly lacking in today's world.


Nov 16, 2011 - 10:49am

Louie

Thanks Louie,

We will try to keep our real estate holdings. So far we are still breaking even. Even if we get behind on the mortgages, the properties are still ours until a judge transfers the ownership. But I had forgotten that inflation may minimize those mortgages faster than I think.

Hard to work today with Gonzalo saying the avalanche may be here! I wish I spoke the language of economics better. Can someone direct me to a site that can explain T-bills, bonds, yields, spreads, etc? I feel like my grasp just good enough to agree that something is wrong, but I don't quite get the significance when a ZH writer points out an increase or decrease in spreads.

johnboatcat
Nov 16, 2011 - 11:00am
Louie
Nov 16, 2011 - 11:19am

Free Education & The American Challange

Big T will hopefully soon write about education and Dr. Jerome made a comment about education being free. Two things on this front. First, in the US we have tried to make the tools of education free for hundreds of years. One of the best tools is the public library system, which now also includes free internet. Anyone who wants to learn can have access to vast resources of knowledge, all for FREE. It is a shame that we don't value this more.

Second, have you ever heard of OpenCourseWare? It is an effort to use the internet to make education available globally for free. You can look it up on Google. Outside of the US, people who really want to learn are using it to improve their skills and gain competitive advantage.

Which brings me to a point on my rant- There was a recent article titled, "Why Americans won't do dirty jobs."

(https://www.businessweek.com/magazine/why-americans-wont-do-dirty-jobs-1...)

Article says that there are lots of jobs, just that Americans won't take them. I read through the comments on the article wanting to scream, "AMERICANS WON'T TAKE THESE JOBS BECAUSE THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING IS HIGHER IN THE WELFARE SYSTEM THAN IT IS IF THEY ARE WORKING!!!!!!"

Why don't people care about education? Because they currently don't need it. They can be ignorant and have a house, 2 cars, a boat, and cruise the Caribbean a couple times a year. Why do people drop out of school? Because they can game the welfare system into free benefits including cash, food, housing, and health care.

Thanks <rant off>

Today looks like a good day to buy the dip!


Nov 16, 2011 - 11:39am

Buy what dip?

Don't think that one made it to the gold shop. Odd, though that the Euro and gold are no longer tracking - which was weird to me initially - but this could mean a real flight to safety?

Aram
Nov 16, 2011 - 12:01pm

KSA to flog female driver despite pardon

Saudi authorities are reportedly planning to push ahead with a court ruling and flog a woman for defying a ban on female driving despite winning a royal pardon.

Shaima Jastaniya was sentenced to 10 lashes by a court in the city of Jeddah in September for persistently flouting the conservative kingdom's men-only driving rule.

The court's ruling, however, was overturned days later by the Saudi Arabian ruler, King Abdullah, who pardoned Jastaniya upon a request from Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a billionaire entrepreneur who is Saudi Arabia's richest man, and his wife, Princess Ameerah, to spare the young mother.

The royal couple called Jastaniya and reassured her that the charges against her would be dropped. But it seems that no one has informed the court in Jeddah and it has now sent a notification to Jastaniya announcing that her sentence is still in place.

It is widely believed that the Saudi government wants to make an example of her.
...
Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world that bans women from driving. The ban is not enforced by law but is a religious fatwa imposed by the country's Wahhabi clerics.

Wahhabism is an extremely intolerant interpretation of Islam and gained momentum after the discovery of oil in the kingdom in 1938. Saudi Arabia is a Wahhabi state.

https://www.presstv.ir/detail/210469.html

gbend
Nov 16, 2011 - 12:15pm

PHYS/PSLV Phy.u/Phs.u

I'm thankful for all the info that's going on here. The Dr. Jerome post deserves to go viral. With regards to PHYS/PSLV I am in the same boat as Xty searching for the info on which to base my decision on how secure this investment will be going fwd through the coming financial collapse. Is there any available public statements by Eric Sprott on the lack of certificates for these pm trusts?

Aram
Nov 16, 2011 - 12:22pm

Why The Hellfire Do They Hate Us?

...
We have had enough of their "brutish power". And we have no stomach whatsoever now for their "smart power". Our people’s lives are very dear to us. Our tribal children are no lesser lovely than the American children. Our tribal sisters live in no lesser respect in our hearts. And we value the lives of our innocent tribal men pricelessly. The rulers too must learn to love, respect and value them. And it is their bounden responsibility to protect and preserve their lives, even if the killers are the Americans’ drones. Spectacularly, they have failed to do it so far. The innocent tribal blood is thus as much on their hands as on the American butchers’.

https://www.uruknet.info/?p=m83155&hd=&size=1&l=e

Aram
Nov 16, 2011 - 2:08pm

Retaining One's Humanity in the Face of Tyranny

Phil Rockstroh is a poet, lyricist and philosopher bard living in New York City.

For days now, we have endured demonstrably false propaganda that the fallen soldiers of U.S. wars sacrificed their lives for "our freedoms." Yet, as that noxious nonsense still lingers in the air, militarized police have invaded OWS sites in numerous cities, including Zuccotti Park in Lower Manhattan, and, in the boilerplate description of the witless courtesans of the corporate media, with the mission to "evict the occupiers".

Hundreds of NYC riot police forcibly evicted Occupy Wall Street from Zuccotti Park early on Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2011. U.S soldiers died protecting what and who again? These actions should make this much clear: The U.S. military and the police exist to protect the 1%
...
Freedom rises despite cops and soldiers not because of them. And that is exactly why those who despise freedom propagate military hagiography and fetishize those wearing uniforms...
...
...When anyone tells you that dead soldiers and veterans died for your freedom, it is your duty to occupy reality and inform them of just how mistaken they are. And if you truly cherish the concepts of freedom and liberty, you just might be called on to face mindless arrays of fascist cops and lose your freedom, for a time, going to jail, so others might, at some point, gain their freedom.

...If justice is to prevail, it seems, the air of U.S. cities will hold the acrid sting of tear gas, the jails will again be filled, the brave will endure brutality--yet the corrupt system will crumble. Because the system's protectors themselves will bring it down by revealing its empty nature, and the corrupt structure will collapse from within.
...
Accordingly, we should not only occupy--but inhabit our rage. No more tittering at celebrity/political class contretemps--it is time for focused fury. The machinery of the corporate/police state must be dismantled.

If the corporate boardrooms have to be emptied--for the oceans to be replenished with abundant life--then so be it. If one must go to jail for committing acts of civil disobedience to free one's heart--then it must be done.
Yet why does the act of challenging the degraded status quo provoke such a high decree of misapprehension, anxiety, and outright hostility from many, both in positions of authority and among so many of the exploited and dispossessed of the corporate/consumer state.
...
Because any exercise in freedom makes people in our habitually authoritarian nation damn uneasy…a sense of uncertainty brings on dread--the feeling that something terrible is to come from challenging a prevailing order, even as degraded as it is.

Tyrants always promise safety; their apologist warn of chaos if and when the soul-numbing order is challenged.
...
These authoritarian bullies don't want the concept to escape the collective prison of the mind erected and maintained by the corrupt jailers comprising the 1% who claim they offer us protection as, all the while, they hold our chains…all for our own good, they insist…for our safety and the safety of others.

Although, from studying on these prison walls, the thought occurs to me…that what we might need is protection from all this safety.

https://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/11/15#

tko Aram
Nov 16, 2011 - 2:25pm

There's no "freedom of

There's no "freedom of building housing and living wherever we want to" that I'm aware of. They aren't stopping the protesters from protesting... just from LIVING in city parks indefinitely.

Rui
Nov 16, 2011 - 2:57pm

Chinese politicians no smarter than Bush or OBummer

They are all arrogant Keneysians at heart so they screw up the same way. The difference is that China arrives late to the Keneysian self-destruction tournament. They are maybe 40% screwed up while we are 90% so they appear better.

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