Nervous Overnight

Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 11:22pm

I don't like the looks of this. Sharp evening (U.S.) drops always get my attention. Sharp drops that occur on Tuesday evenings (after the weekly CoT survey) always raise my suspicion.

About two hours ago, gold on the Globex began to tank. It fell about $10 in an hour. That's a lot for 8:00 pm NY time but, in fairness, stock futures and crude fell, too. Then, at around 9:00 pm, The Pig started to rally. Not much, really, only about 25 cents (basis points). Of course, some algos then clicked in and trimmed another 7-8 dollars off of the gold price. Once again, gold rallies on a somewhat neutral field (Comex) only to have the gains clawed back on the easily-manipulated Globex.

So, now, we've got to be careful. The only green I have on my screen at present is the POSX. Euro down. Stocks down. Crude down. Grains down. And, of course, PMs down. ZH offers this explanation:

The problem is that both metals, but in particular silver, are very close to some important trendlines. If those lines fail, we will see considerable further weakness. Silver must be watched very closely as a strong move down through $34 could mean that a drop toward 32 or even 30 might be around the corner. Gold isn't quite as precarious as it could move to 1750 and even 1700 without completely disrupting the trends from the September lows.

Lastly, just for fun, I wanted to pass along this video clip that was emailed to me over the weekend. Apparently, it is an editorial from an Aussie television network. Too bad honesty and forthrightness have completely evaporated from American media. At least it can be found down under.

More in the morning. TF

p.s. I spoke with Jim Comiskey this evening. He and everyone else at MFing Global was summarily dismissed last Friday. He's landed on his feet and is ready to lash out. And he's pissed. We hope to record a special podcast soon so that he can get a few things off his chest. I'll keep you posted.

9:45 a.m. EST UPDATE:

​You could probably sense in the tone of the post above that I had a bad feeling about today we go.

After rebounding overnight, gold just got crushed for about $15 in five minutes. Silver puked, too. Again and to reiterate, it is very important that silver stay near or above $34. A convincing move down through and close below 34 would indicate 32 or even 30. Gold needs to hold 1750 but only a drop below 1705 would be cause for serious concern.

Lots of bad stuff bubbling below the surface this morning. Gonzalo Lira just sent me his latest and I urge you to take 2 minutes to read it right now.

Hang in there and be cautious. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 16, 2011 - 5:09am

There's a disturbance in the force.

Something's not right here...

No sooner did I watch a wood pigeon swoop across the valley down to the bay at high speed into a head-wind, than I had this thought.

Then I came inside and read TF's post, identical to my own thoughts.

Couldn't log in to share this thought until now.

Maybe that last dip everyone's been talking about is nigh, maybe not.

Whichever way, hold your hats.

Nov 16, 2011 - 6:02am

weekly mcalvany commentary

Reposted in the new post:

Amongst others, an explanation why gold will do good in deflationary scenario's as well as hyperinflation.

Nov 16, 2011 - 6:07am

Look a distraction - Spain!

Spain Set to Purge Banks of Property Hangover

Spanish banks face deeper losses on 176 billion euros ($243 billion) of soured real-estate assets as Mariano Rajoy, the favorite to win national elections on Nov. 20, pledges to enforce a cleanup.

“You have to remove any kind of shadow of doubt over the valuation that you have of these assets in your balance sheet,” Luis de Guindos, named by newspapers as a contender for finance minister in a newPeople’s Party government formed by Rajoy, said in an interview. De Guindos said he favored stricter rules on how banks account for depreciated land values.

Investors demand 485 basis points of extra yield to own 18- month senior, unsecured notes sold by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) rather than two-year German government debt, up from 341 basis points when Spain’s second-biggest bank raised 750 million euros from selling the debt on Oct. 28. The yield on 18-month Spanish government paper sold yesterday jumped to 5.159 percent from 3.801 percent last month....

Nov 16, 2011 - 6:08am

Good Morning

I see I am in idiot and missed the new thread.

Euro-death watch is definitely on, which ultimately is very bullish for gold.

rufanuf - as you don't believe the markets are manipulated, you will have to explain more fully your market-driven perspective.

and you will have to go to the old thread for your morning dose of Nigel Farage - but it is a good one, and from two days ago, I believe.

Nov 16, 2011 - 6:18am

Yay Spain!

Iberica to the rescue!

RufanufGeorge Clooney
Nov 16, 2011 - 6:31am


Good Morning.....Nigel!! I will go look now. Im not sure I am saying I dont think the markets are manipulated. I think I am saying its easy to mistake real price action for the Central Bank driven stuff.

RufanufGeorge Clooney
Nov 16, 2011 - 6:31am


Good Morning.....Nigel!! I will go look now. Im not sure I am saying I dont think the markets are manipulated. I think I am saying its easy to mistake real price action for the Central Bank driven stuff.

Nov 16, 2011 - 7:00am

Dominic Frisby mets Ned Naylor-Leyland at Gold and Silver Summit

Dominic Frisby meets Ned Naylor-Leyland at the Gold And Silver Summit in London.

h/t RaRa

Nov 16, 2011 - 7:13am

China as Banker Plays Role

China as Banker Plays Role in Obama Campaign

Of all the people Barack Obama thought he would be running against next year, here’s perhaps the most unexpected: China’s leaders.

That’s dawning on the U.S. president as he travels through the Asia-Pacific region. His re-election campaign seemed to shift into a higher gear last weekend in Hawaii, where he declared “enough’s enough” on the lack of movement by China on currency valuation and honoring international property rights.

We could be seeing the start of a more confrontational tack toward China...

Nov 16, 2011 - 7:35am

Corzine ?

When has Corzine NOT played loose and fast with OPM ? Duh ? As Governor, as Senator, as MF Global CEO ? To send your hard earned money to a corrupt liberal (redundancy alert siren....Wuuep ! Wuuep ! Wuuep !) is a little pathologicalcacalcacal (nervous stutter alert siren....Wuuep ! Wuuep ! Wuuep !) ? He graciously, and ever so sensitive to PC, declined his $12 M severance junk package ! Why not ? If he was clandestinely on the other side of those bad trades......he paid himself with his clients segregated account somewhere between $600 M and $900 M and growing ? Then....he had "the odacity of hope" to try and sell the worthless, corporate shell.... after the egg sucking dog emptied the contents (canned chuckles.... Yolk, yolk, yolk !) ! Maybe he rationalized his theft in his sick liberal mind (redundancy alert siren....Wuuep ! Wuuep ! Wuuep !) by gaming the system and leaving the taxpayer to make whole the defrauded investors with the new, more generous limits of the Dodd/Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act ? Valet "Funds" Parking ? What a sport ! You've been Dodded, Franked and Chapaqui....DICKED ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Watery Grave Tour

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

by Gasivs Buttox, Oct 14, 2019 - 11:35pm
by Montross515, Oct 14, 2019 - 10:43pm
by SteveW, Oct 14, 2019 - 10:36pm
by Angry Chef, Oct 14, 2019 - 10:31pm
by SteveW, Oct 14, 2019 - 10:07pm

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 9:10pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:32pm
by Trail Trekker, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:27pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 14, 2019 - 8:01pm