Nervous Overnight

Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 11:22pm

I don't like the looks of this. Sharp evening (U.S.) drops always get my attention. Sharp drops that occur on Tuesday evenings (after the weekly CoT survey) always raise my suspicion. 

About two hours ago, gold on the Globex began to tank. It fell about $10 in an hour. That's a lot for 8:00 pm NY time but, in fairness, stock futures and crude fell, too. Then, at around 9:00 pm, The Pig started to rally. Not much, really, only about 25 cents (basis points). Of course, some algos then clicked in and trimmed another 7-8 dollars off of the gold price. Once again, gold rallies on a somewhat neutral field (Comex) only to have the gains clawed back on the easily-manipulated Globex.


So, now, we've got to be careful. The only green I have on my screen at present is the POSX. Euro down. Stocks down. Crude down. Grains down. And, of course, PMs down. ZH offers this explanation:

The problem is that both metals, but in particular silver, are very close to some important trendlines. If those lines fail, we will see considerable further weakness. Silver must be watched very closely as a strong move down through $34 could mean that a drop toward 32 or even 30 might be around the corner. Gold isn't quite as precarious as it could move to 1750 and even 1700 without completely disrupting the trends from the September lows.


Lastly, just for fun, I wanted to pass along this video clip that was emailed to me over the weekend. Apparently, it is an editorial from an Aussie television network. Too bad honesty and forthrightness have completely evaporated from American media. At least it can be found down under.

More in the morning. TF

p.s. I spoke with Jim Comiskey this evening. He and everyone else at MFing Global was summarily dismissed last Friday. He's landed on his feet and is ready to lash out. And he's pissed. We hope to record a special podcast soon so that he can get a few things off his chest. I'll keep you posted.

9:45 a.m. EST UPDATE:

​You could probably sense in the tone of the post above that I had a bad feeling about today we go. 

After rebounding overnight, gold just got crushed for about $15 in five minutes. Silver puked, too. Again and to reiterate, it is very important that silver stay near or above $34. A convincing move down through and close below 34 would indicate 32 or even 30. Gold needs to hold 1750 but only a drop below 1705 would be cause for serious concern.

Lots of bad stuff bubbling below the surface this morning. Gonzalo Lira just sent me his latest and I urge you to take 2 minutes to read it right now.

Hang in there and be cautious. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


book · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:28pm


Looking forward to hearing from Jim Comiskey!

¤ · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:35pm

Thanks for your take on this...

 ...and the late night effort.

I don't like it either if we dip below $1760 or $34

Margin hikes or just the POSX? We'll find out soon enough.

DiamondEddie · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:35pm

Thanks man. I hope we don't

Thanks man. I hope we don't lose support for $1800 as I have physical in transit headed to the dealer for a little profit taking.

As always, great job.

Jeb Corliss " Grinding The Crack"
NW VIEW · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:37pm

Overnight and Onward

Many of us have stayed long on cash and many have sold out on Juniors this month. Let the EE drive the metals down and we will be ready to slurp the Pm's up. 

cpnscarlet · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:39pm

Can I say "I told you so"

A minute before this thread started, I posted this on the last thread -

"Unlike someone has recently posted, I see the action of the last two nights in Asia to be HIGHLY unusual. We see smackdowns like this all the time in the COMEX session, but two nights in a row like this in Asia? I'm not happy at all. It would seem to this well-educated jester that the EURO decline is still a skeleton with an outstretched hand pointing to the dollar and USTs (apologies to Arne Saknussemm). DAMN! I was beginning to think that we were getting ready for a gold-painted Saturn-V launch (can one of you photoshop that one for me?). I thought 11/15/11 would end with an Ag/Au spike up. But everything else I said would happen did - - -

1) A convergence of minds - me and my best friends convened around a chocolate/peanut butter cake

2) The end of something - my youth.

3) The beginning of something old - ME. I turned FIFTY today.

4) A day of great portents - okay, I lied ... but I was finally first on a thread. That should count for something.

11/15/11 - A "great" day. 50 and counting."

So Turd saw this too - weird action at a time we don't usually see it. The COMEX gets it way with NY trading smacks, but now Asia??? I always thought the volume of the Asian markets would always keep the squid at bay, but that's just wishful thinking - just like with ANY trading theory in a manipulated market. I won't say to just screw all the TA, but short of some great disaster or blatant bout of inflation, we may have to wait a lot longer before we see $2000 Au or even $40 Ag. Hey, look at me! I'm a grumpy old man already!

bernard · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:41pm

Well hopefully they continue

Well hopefully they continue to make it cheaper for me to acquire physical...

According to it looks like they're just pushing up premiums anyways, so I say bring it on. Bring on the physical shortage. Make the industrial users come in and buy in size.

That'll teach em.

rjsand DiamondEddie · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:42pm

Grinding the Crack

Crazy shit...amazing how fast that dude is going there!

Turdle GG · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:46pm

Thanks Turd

The bloke in the video is Alan Kohler. He appears on ABC (a government-owned TV station, akin to Britain's BBC).

He wrote this excellent article a week ago (with a killer last paragraph):

Revenge of the golden days Europe is heading inexorably towards the monetisation of Italy’s debt via the European Central Bank. This means the price of gold will spike again.

The failure of the G20 meeting in Cannes over the weekend to either boost the IMF or come up with a new global monetary system was hardly a surprise. It was merely another manifestation of the paralysis that has gripped international politics all year – in fact ever since the glorious days of crisis in 2009, when the G20 became a sort of asylum seekers' boat to a new world of cooperation.


There was no way the debt-funded golden decades following the end of Bretton Woods in 1972 could be paid back via global deflation and depression. It was always going to be done through inflation.

Full article here

Follow @AlanKohler on Twitter.

[Mod Note: Please remember not to paste full article, even if the link to the original is provided.]

Stormdancer · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:56pm

Thanks TF

Glad to hear about Jim Comisky too. Can't wait for that podcast....whhoooo yeah...

clueless one · Nov 15, 2011 - 11:57pm



Incredible times we're living in...

I'm still hoping for the low $20's...

Subotai · Nov 16, 2011 - 12:10am

PM Price - Bond Sale link?

Could it be that Gold and Silver are dropping in anticipation of (bad) bond sales in France and Spain, beginning in a few hours? For now, the collapse of the Eurozone and the world economy at large is weighing on PM prices, that much seems clear. Maybe JPM and/or others have been tipped off that the ECB will not intervene to support these sales, which will mean another day of losses for the major indexes and the Euro.

At some point we'll get back to PM prices reflecting their safe haven status, but for now they seem destined to positive correlation with the equity markets. 

I'm no trader, but if I were I'd be ready to capitalize on skyrocketing French bond yields come 2:45 a.m.

ReachWest · Nov 16, 2011 - 12:39am

Looking Forward to a Turd-Comiskey PodCast

Certainly look forward to a podcast with Comiskey. Glad to hear he has landed on a square footing - good folks always do - and Jim certainly appears to be "good folk".

As far as Ag is concerned - thank-you for the warning - we've been essentially sideways since around Oct 26 - and - although I'm no chart-reader, I have this nagging feeling that we're due for a nasty smack-down shortly. Guess it'll be time to exchange some fiat into "real-money" (physical) again soon. (The paper markets are completely off-limits for me, permanently).

ClinkinKY cpnscarlet · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:20am

The Big 5-0

Happy Birthday cpnscarlet!!!

PuddingMan · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:20am

Currency Wars

Not bad for your first book Jim, not bad at all. 

2turdledoves · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:21am

Aussie view

Yep, got to agree with the Turdmeister. I watch the gold and silver price all through the day (the Asian session) in Australia and it mostly goes sideways to slightly up every day. When it drops 20 bucks during our day, watch out USA! I reckon the rumors from Bix and Ranting Andy of major smash down are going to be proven correct. I am on the sidelines.

Rufanuf · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:25am

1800 by Friday? No?

1800 by Friday? No?

Budafuco · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:47am

Clock Work

No 1800 fri......sadsorry man, its option expiration week. This shit happens all the time. Buy the dip next week.

diegeiro · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:49am

thanks Turd for the late nite post

Thanks Turd for the timely post; a good reminder of why I am on this site just about everyday. I've needed a good reminder lately! :-) Its also nice to believe there is a good reason I have been up late watching the metals the past few nights. Sure seems like time for another smack down. I missed the last one due to being in the midst of a refi so I sure don't want to miss the next. And while I didn't really plan it this way, I did end up moving my citi mortgage to a CU during the week of Nov. 5

Hope you had a Happy Birthday cpnscarlet!

"Sovereignty is ceded to the banks" how true, yet sad, now the EU gets to feel the same bankster love that we have in the US.

Rufanuf · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:54am

Well I was seeing a test of

Well I was seeing a test of 1764 3 times in a week and each time it has recovered WHILST the dollar has its a given its falling below 1760 next week then due to options expiry?

TheGoodDoctor · Nov 16, 2011 - 1:58am

Eager to hear the new

Eager to hear the new Comiskey podcast Turd - whenever you can get to it. The MFing Global thing stinks to high heaven.

willsilvaa · Nov 16, 2011 - 2:04am

another *Aussi view...

Gidday Mate; and ta {that means thank you in Oz}

And a bigger ta to Turd et al {that's French for all you Turdites} heheeeee

this is why i mostly lurk >_<

Anyway....did anyone see the silver seniors today?Were they telegraphing this ag weakness?.Silver Standard sure had a major gap down. I was thinking they {as a group} appear to be making a doublebottom ...i got 10k locked in my TD Waterhouse self directed LIRA....I would like to switch it out of this institution or dump it on a dividend paying senior silver stock

. Just the other day ,someone posted a list showing a huge derivatives exposure on four big Canadian banks,Td was one of them. Maybe i could transfer it to that Sprott physical silver fund. Itoo read Bix Weir's public stuff,and it sure makes ya wonder how safe our big houses really are


*born in Oz now a Canuck

vamoose1 · Nov 16, 2011 - 2:21am

Contrary Possibility.

Ok we have two dodgy, European bond auctions coming up overnight, Italy through 7, overnight, and, get this 104 , count them, Eurozone auctions by Christmas.Thats 5 weeks. the contagion is running wild. It basically looks like situation hopeless.It looks like an unabated Euro bank run. Never in 60 years have I seen such a pack of fools, and I dont just mean Europe.Its reminiscent of 1938 when British prime Minister Chamberlain came triumphantly back from germany waving the peace in our time document, putting blood in the water for Hitler, and then sure enough. We have an option maturity for the PMs, commencing in the Decemeber contract on Nov 22, and this is a time for the games players to start bombing. So you can colour me nervous near term too, Dow and S and P Futures are sharply lower tonite as well. how could one not be nervous. But here is a curious observation, I have been on maybe 50 sites since this afternoon, and its wall to wall PM bears, not a bull to be found.A clean sweep, So you are suggesting we go up this week? I wouldnt dare, but there is a very old expression THE OBVIOUS IS OBVIOUSLY WRONG ....FRom Joe Granville for you oldsters. And one last observation. This kneejerk pouring of money into US Dollars is getting tired. To suggest that US Bonds are a safe haven, is utter nonsense, it most certainly is not, particularly when they provide zro returns. In fact they are menacingly dangerous, just less florid than Europe, and hoping nobody will notice. Lets remember that gold and silver are the ultimate safe haven, in fact the only safe haven, absent mainly oil, farmland and the like. So far it has not happened, this is true, but nor are they doing a 2008/2009. Could this change here? Here and now? WEW will know in about 3 hours, good luck people. .

Rufanuf · Nov 16, 2011 - 2:34am

I'm only a novice trader, I

I'm only a novice trader, I don't have the knowledge to understand anything but the most basic market observations, a lot of which I read on here...its just that if Gold goes down with in the next week in any significant way the longer term chart would seem to then suggest a steady decline from there....and I don't believe that's going to happen, thats all.

ivars · Nov 16, 2011 - 3:02am

Shorter term EURUSD chart

I put together shorter term (2011-2013) EURUSD ( USD per EUR) chart that doe not correspond in time to the long term chart I posted earlier here:

This new chart is similar to long term in shape but moves things so that they happen faster. It gives little bit higher EURUSD value in the first 2012 dip, and significantly higher value for EUR in the end of 2012 and 2013. So it might be that long term chart has to be compressed a bit, which also seems logical if USA defaults in late 2015- early 2016.

This chart will be tested very early

- will there be a short rebound in EUR in late December-early January to 1,40 as in this chart and than steep drop to 1,2 in May 2012 ,

-or Minimum at the end of December with a rebound till May 2012 with 1,375 in April and 1,35 in May first as in long term chart?

If the new chart remains valid after that, then depth of the dip in May-July 2012 (1,2) or lower will help to determine highest value in early 2013.

The chart is posted permanently here:

This new chart corresponds well to possibility of the USA defaulting on debt to FED in November 2012 and corresponding shoot up gold/silver prices in these charts:

And corresponding hickdown in the USDx chart in early 2013:

Perfidious Albion · Nov 16, 2011 - 3:09am

In a bullish mood today c'mon

In a bullish mood today c'mon gold lets have some of this..

Budafuco · Nov 16, 2011 - 3:16am


Hey, this site also helps me find info on whats going on 11/22 future options expire & 11/30 is first day notice for Dec delivery. So smack-downs can happen anytime now till the end of the month.

aurum argentum · Nov 16, 2011 - 3:30am

It's 3:30 a.m. EST

And gold is at $1770, silver at $34.17. Pretty good...Pretty Pretty good.

Rufanuf · Nov 16, 2011 - 3:54am

Moving away from 1764 again.

Moving away from 1764 again.

AlienEyes · Nov 16, 2011 - 4:10am

Corzine the Swine or the Idiot?

First, I saw this......

Jon Corzine resigned today without severance pay as head of MF Global, the bankrupt brokerage firm where he had hoped to resurrect his career after a failed gubernatorial re-election bid in New Jersey.

Corzine has resigned from all posts and has confirmed "that he will not seek severance payments in connection with his resignation," the company said in a statement today.

His severance package was worth $12.1 million, including cash and benefits, the Associated Press reported.

Securities regulators and the FBI are now investigating more than $600 million in missing customer money. Brokerages are required to keep the money they invest separate from client accounts.

And then, there was this....

 The lawyers smell blood. Have at them! smiley

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