Nervous Overnight

Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 11:22pm

I don't like the looks of this. Sharp evening (U.S.) drops always get my attention. Sharp drops that occur on Tuesday evenings (after the weekly CoT survey) always raise my suspicion.

About two hours ago, gold on the Globex began to tank. It fell about $10 in an hour. That's a lot for 8:00 pm NY time but, in fairness, stock futures and crude fell, too. Then, at around 9:00 pm, The Pig started to rally. Not much, really, only about 25 cents (basis points). Of course, some algos then clicked in and trimmed another 7-8 dollars off of the gold price. Once again, gold rallies on a somewhat neutral field (Comex) only to have the gains clawed back on the easily-manipulated Globex.

So, now, we've got to be careful. The only green I have on my screen at present is the POSX. Euro down. Stocks down. Crude down. Grains down. And, of course, PMs down. ZH offers this explanation:

The problem is that both metals, but in particular silver, are very close to some important trendlines. If those lines fail, we will see considerable further weakness. Silver must be watched very closely as a strong move down through $34 could mean that a drop toward 32 or even 30 might be around the corner. Gold isn't quite as precarious as it could move to 1750 and even 1700 without completely disrupting the trends from the September lows.

Lastly, just for fun, I wanted to pass along this video clip that was emailed to me over the weekend. Apparently, it is an editorial from an Aussie television network. Too bad honesty and forthrightness have completely evaporated from American media. At least it can be found down under.

More in the morning. TF

p.s. I spoke with Jim Comiskey this evening. He and everyone else at MFing Global was summarily dismissed last Friday. He's landed on his feet and is ready to lash out. And he's pissed. We hope to record a special podcast soon so that he can get a few things off his chest. I'll keep you posted.

9:45 a.m. EST UPDATE:

​You could probably sense in the tone of the post above that I had a bad feeling about today we go.

After rebounding overnight, gold just got crushed for about $15 in five minutes. Silver puked, too. Again and to reiterate, it is very important that silver stay near or above $34. A convincing move down through and close below 34 would indicate 32 or even 30. Gold needs to hold 1750 but only a drop below 1705 would be cause for serious concern.

Lots of bad stuff bubbling below the surface this morning. Gonzalo Lira just sent me his latest and I urge you to take 2 minutes to read it right now.

Hang in there and be cautious. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 15, 2011 - 11:28pm


Looking forward to hearing from Jim Comiskey!

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:35pm

Thanks for your take on this...

...and the late night effort.

I don't like it either if we dip below $1760 or $34

Margin hikes or just the POSX? We'll find out soon enough.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:35pm

Thanks man. I hope we don't

Thanks man. I hope we don't lose support for $1800 as I have physical in transit headed to the dealer for a little profit taking.

As always, great job.

Jeb Corliss " Grinding The Crack"
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:37pm

Overnight and Onward

Many of us have stayed long on cash and many have sold out on Juniors this month. Let the EE drive the metals down and we will be ready to slurp the Pm's up.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:39pm

Can I say "I told you so"

A minute before this thread started, I posted this on the last thread -

"Unlike someone has recently posted, I see the action of the last two nights in Asia to be HIGHLY unusual. We see smackdowns like this all the time in the COMEX session, but two nights in a row like this in Asia? I'm not happy at all. It would seem to this well-educated jester that the EURO decline is still a skeleton with an outstretched hand pointing to the dollar and USTs (apologies to Arne Saknussemm). DAMN! I was beginning to think that we were getting ready for a gold-painted Saturn-V launch (can one of you photoshop that one for me?). I thought 11/15/11 would end with an Ag/Au spike up. But everything else I said would happen did - - -

1) A convergence of minds - me and my best friends convened around a chocolate/peanut butter cake

2) The end of something - my youth.

3) The beginning of something old - ME. I turned FIFTY today.

4) A day of great portents - okay, I lied ... but I was finally first on a thread. That should count for something.

11/15/11 - A "great" day. 50 and counting."

So Turd saw this too - weird action at a time we don't usually see it. The COMEX gets it way with NY trading smacks, but now Asia??? I always thought the volume of the Asian markets would always keep the squid at bay, but that's just wishful thinking - just like with ANY trading theory in a manipulated market. I won't say to just screw all the TA, but short of some great disaster or blatant bout of inflation, we may have to wait a lot longer before we see $2000 Au or even $40 Ag. Hey, look at me! I'm a grumpy old man already!

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:41pm

Well hopefully they continue

Well hopefully they continue to make it cheaper for me to acquire physical...

According to it looks like they're just pushing up premiums anyways, so I say bring it on. Bring on the physical shortage. Make the industrial users come in and buy in size.

That'll teach em.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:42pm

Grinding the Crack

Crazy shit...amazing how fast that dude is going there!

Turdle GG
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:46pm

Thanks Turd

The bloke in the video is Alan Kohler. He appears on ABC (a government-owned TV station, akin to Britain's BBC).

He wrote this excellent article a week ago (with a killer last paragraph):

Revenge of the golden days Europe is heading inexorably towards the monetisation of Italy’s debt via the European Central Bank. This means the price of gold will spike again.

The failure of the G20 meeting in Cannes over the weekend to either boost the IMF or come up with a new global monetary system was hardly a surprise. It was merely another manifestation of the paralysis that has gripped international politics all year – in fact ever since the glorious days of crisis in 2009, when the G20 became a sort of asylum seekers' boat to a new world of cooperation.


There was no way the debt-funded golden decades following the end of Bretton Woods in 1972 could be paid back via global deflation and depression. It was always going to be done through inflation.

Full article here

Follow @AlanKohler on Twitter.

[Mod Note: Please remember not to paste full article, even if the link to the original is provided.]

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:56pm

Thanks TF

Glad to hear about Jim Comisky too. Can't wait for that podcast....whhoooo yeah...

clueless one
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:57pm



Incredible times we're living in...

I'm still hoping for the low $20's...

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by NW VIEW, 21 min 37 sec ago
by sierra skier, 8 hours 39 min ago
by NW VIEW, 8 hours 42 min ago
by Trail Trekker, 10 hours 2 min ago