Back On The Throne

Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 10:29am

Turd is back on the throne and ready for another crazy week. Let's get started!

A rash of gold-positive headlines this morning has caused a $25 spike in price over the past few hours. From ZeroHedge, here are the main excitement generators:

ECB Intervenes: Briefly Brings Italian Yields Under 7%... And Sends French Yields To Fresh Record Highs

Paulson Sells Gold ETF – Buys Physical Bullion? Soros Not Gold Bearish

French CDS Hit Escape Velocity

ECB Member Tells The Truth: Debt Monetization Is The Beginning Of The End

Bank Of America Is A Fiver Again

European Funding Crisis Accelerating

Market Surges As Petulant Fed Dissenter Promises ZIRP To Last Longer Than Mid-2013

If anyone would like to take a stab at explaining where any of those seven headlines is not precious metal bullish, go right ahead. <crickets> So, with the fundamentals being soundly reinforced this morning, we turn to the charts for some insight as to where we might be headed this week.

First up, let's look at gold. The only thing disturbing the bullish picture this week is CoT report from Friday. Lots of spec longs were added along with an almost equal number of new Cartel shorts. This is, most certainly, not a bullish development. Always remember, though, that the CoT survey was taken after the close last Tuesday...a week ago today. With the beating that gold took on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, a lot of the spec longs were likely flushed. Then, the rally on Friday definitely contained a lot of Cartel short-covering as price jumped $30 yet the total open interest only grew by 70 contracts. The point is...the CoT situation is probably not as scary as the report made it look back on Friday.

For our first two gold charts, let's look at a daily and a 4-hour. It's very important to note the trend channel from the late September lows and that gold is comfortably rising within the channel.

For a short-term perspective, check out this 2-hour chart. This wedge needs to be watched for the next few days. For today, at least, resistance should come in between 1790 and 1795. IF we can get through there, 1800 will be equally challenging. However, once that level falls, $1850 or so will be our next target.

The situation in silver is a little more dicey. The CoT report wasn't quite as unnerving but the charts need to be watched. Fortunately, silver has now bounced off of its primary trendline twice in the last three days. This is a very helpful development. However, we must watch that line very closely. You can see it on all three of these charts. For today, that support is near $33.80. It is critical that silver stay above that level. Conversely, IF silver can break out through 35 and 35.60, our next target is 37 and then the area between 39 and 41.

OK, that's all for now. I'll have more for you later today. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 15, 2011 - 10:31am


Can it be?

PS - I told you 11/15/11 would be a day of great portents.

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:33am
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:38am

Alf field Keynote Speech

Carried over from the last thread.

For anyone attempting to educate unwilling relatives, print it and snail mail it to them. They may read it instead of an e-mailed link.

Brotha Bob
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:38am

It all looks good

It all looks good to me. With the expanding issues in Europe, I think the world is waking up to the fiat ponzu scheme. The EE has too many fires to controll. The game is almost up. Everyone worried about the COT report, that is a week old. Hmm, what happened in the past week since the reporting period closed?

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Back to PMs - Ag Au action.

Seriously, today is an important day, but the reversals this morning look a little too familiar. It's last night's drop in HK trading that spooked me real good. Any announcement I missed while in sleepy-by land? I'm looking at the ZH headlines and I can't see anything - darn that sterno! Anyone want to clue me in - this morning has been a little busy for me. The afternoon doesn't look much better - watch my 6 guys, OK? I'll be coming here when I can to see what important stuff I might miss along the way.

PS - Sorry (maybe not) that I missed last night's discussion (even during the time I was awake). Good stuff with "minor" skirmishes. Unfortunately I think we are splitting over both important (Constitutional) issues as well as unimportant (semantic) issues. Just goes to show IMHO how big our problems are in the world right now.

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:39am

cpnscarlet ... Is this it ?

What has this got to do with gold? Recently we passed the 40th anniversary of 15 August 1971, the date when the last link between currencies and gold was ended by President Nixon. This launched an era of floating “I owe you nothing” currencies. Money was what any government deemed it to be, generally something that the government could create in unlimited quantities. That system, plus the fractional reserve banking system, launched an era of ever increasing debt and credit. It was an era where debt was desirable and money lost its purchasing power

Dr G
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:40am

Turd, welcome back! Hope you

Turd, welcome back! Hope you are refreshed and feeling well? Are you gambling just on the tables in LV or are you still gambling with paper gold and silver?

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:46am

History for 11/15

This is one of the things that happened on this important date -

  • November 15, 1923: Rentenmark issued; pegged to the Gold Standard; Rentenmark 4.2 = 1 US dollar; at this time: Old Reichsmark 4,200,000,000 = 1 US dollar.
    1 New Rentenmark = 1 billion Old Reichsmark!

But that's not the punch line. You'll be told tonight - a convergence of minds; the end of one thing and the beginning of something "old".

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:47am

Welcome back Turd, thank you

Welcome back Turd, thank you for the update.

Perfidious Albion
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:51am

Good buzz

Higher highs and higher lows..

Thanks TF

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:55am

Repost - do you know how much $15 trillion is?

If you spent a $1 million a day from the time of Adam until now (6,000 years) SIX TIMES OVER, you'd still have enough money to give to a new born to spend $50 million a day until he or she is nearly 102 years old.

Oh, and FYI, it's not religious nonsense, just math. Adam to Christ, geneologically is 4,000 years. Christ till now 2,000 years. 6,000 years. Even though the statement has nothing to do with religion, just thought I'd preempt that from the last thread.

Oh and these gold prognosticators need to start assigning timelines with predictions. $4,500 gold? That's great. When? That would be helpful.

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:58am

lets roLL

thX mrF for the info.

got my eyes on some paper targets. blam. bang. bOOm.

Daily Double
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:58am

Gun Shy

The reason I am not getting back into silver is I am gun shy. The last 2 manipulated smack downs were designed not only to cover shorts but also to scar people out of the market. Thus metal which was acting monetary in the summer is now following other commodities and inverse the dollar. Say what you want about the E.E. but they are not dumb. I know a silver investor who went in for 500k in Aug and lost most of it in margin call with the Sept smack. I am waiting for QE then I am all in again. Thanks to Turd, keep up the good work

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:01am

Thanks TF / Wynter Benton

Thanks for your effort and the updates.

Many, many headlines that are gold bullish for sure. I don't see many that would call for gold to be knocked back for any solid reasons. Just upwards potential going forward the longer this debt/liquidity drama takes to unfold.

Here's a couple headlines that maybe indicate the still burgeoning IMF/China banking/currency war of words and positioning.

China banking system deemed vulnerable by IMF
China should speed up interest-rate reform and let the yuan to trade more freely, the International Monetary Fund says, positing a troubling scenario for the Chinese banking system.
China's central bank lukewarm on IMF study

Silver does seem iffy but it does seem to be consolidating nicely around $34 for the most part and the base seems firm there. With such such low market volume overall, it wouldn't take much sidelined money to re-enter and jack this market once the EU situation seems ready to be revealed or play out. They are waiting on something. I'm not sure what it might be right now. Pressure on Merkel or Sarkozy at home? I'm almost sure it has something to do with the Fed. or IMF game planning something. They're probably one in the same for the most part anyway. My hunch is a IMF move when the Euro breaks up shortly or at least loses a member or two.

(Funny how we don't hear any of that Wynter Benton stuff coming out with those guarantees anymore about November. What was that price again we were supposed to watch for? Yeah right.)

WYO Silver
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:01am


Instead of getting your knickers in a knot every time someone posts something with a religious tone to it, why don't you just walk on by the comment? It's pretty easy!

Your childish whining on the matter is just as annoying.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:03am

Silver needs to break this range!

We are still sitting in this 33-35$ range with silver but its always encouraging to see green numbers! If we can JUST get past that 35.25 and hurdle this range. IF the 35.25 resistance becomes support can we call September/October a bear trap?! Frick'n hope so. Look out 50! Here we come!


~Premo Hand-worked Bullion~

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:09am

I feel a rant coming on...

I have been ruminating about central banking's keynesian lunacy, the dumbing down of our educational system since 1913, Plato's warning of mob rule, political sophism and outright pandering and how it is all coming together, in our time. I am nearly persuaded that silver really is the Achilles heel of the entire EE cartel -- just what many of you have been saying all along!

More later after I grade this stack of papers. Happy trading! Stay nimble and sleep well at night.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:10am

Didn't Fulford say something big was gonna happen by the 15th?

I guess we still have a few hours left, but he doesn't seem very credible

ferretflat WheelerSilver
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:17am

I am comfortable

I am comfortable with accumulating silver in the $33-$35 trading range. One reason is that when silver does breakout to the downside premiums go up and it becomes very hard to find any physical to buy.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:21am
Nick Elway
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:21am

Year-to-date Metals Issues and Stops report

I called CME and talked to Mr. Garcia so I could make some sense of this report:

My understanding each firm has four rows:

The first is for the firm's customers "C" that are providing product "I for issue" because the held a short position when the month came to an end.

The second is for the firm's customers "C" that are taking delivery "S for stop" because the held a long position when the month came to an end.

The third is for the firm's house account "H" that is providing "I"

The fourth is for the firm's house account "H" that is taking delivery "S"

When I asked if real metal was used to settle these deliveries, Mr. Garcia said real metal was delivered for copper, platinum, and palladium contracts. After I got off the phone I realized he had not mentioned silver or gold.

Throwing Sliver Hammers
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:29am
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:30am
Bay of Pigs
Nov 15, 2011 - 11:34am

Nick Elway

I'm of the opinion that all the exchanges are manipulated and pretty much useless at this point. People play in them at their own risk and when they get cleaned by these crooks, they can't say they weren't warned.

None of it is legitimate anymore...the COMEX, CME, SEC, CFTC's all completely crooked.

These COT reports aren't much for a gauge anymore either. We're always looking back at how we got screwed again.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:43am



I see gold headed into the $2000, but only as another steep on its way to Alf’s number.


The Skinny:

"Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for this wave should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way."


Edited by Moderator Washington

Whoa Nellie! You can't be posting entire articles like that! What were you thinking? You want Turd to end up in the lockup?

A teaser, and a link. That's the rule. And it was already posted upthread!

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:47am

Super Committed!

So why isn't anyone talking about our debt ceiling? "The Super Committed" Is the debt ceiling now a floor? I know we are waiting for the "Super Committed" to make debt decisions, but the rising debt is not! I don't see any mention by any press outlet. ZH? Looks like Thanksgiving will be nothing of the sort. Another major decision made hastily. PRINT, BABY, PRINT!!!! This Nation has a MAJOR problem, and it really isn't our politicians.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:51am


serious question:

do fundamentals matter anymore?

if the price of precious metals were based on fundamentals alone, they would be much higher that they currently are. (imo)

i think (as do most others here) that the markets are manipulated.

so in a manipulated market, do fundamentals matter?

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:52am

and yet another bounce

could this be the last time double tap at 1764 and 34?

be the flOOr. hold the dOOr.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:53am

Usually those wedgies

resolve in the direction of the previous trend. But with markets this manipulated, I'm not going to say a damn thing about the direction, other than it will trend again after the wedgie finishes.

Be careful you don't get a wedgie from the wedgie.

Nov 15, 2011 - 11:53am

That was really long

This post isn't. Good stuff for sure.

I'm probably jealous I never had a 4 foot post before.


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