Back On The Throne

Tue, Nov 15, 2011 - 10:29am

Turd is back on the throne and ready for another crazy week. Let's get started!

A rash of gold-positive headlines this morning has caused a $25 spike in price over the past few hours. From ZeroHedge, here are the main excitement generators:

ECB Intervenes: Briefly Brings Italian Yields Under 7%... And Sends French Yields To Fresh Record Highs

Paulson Sells Gold ETF – Buys Physical Bullion? Soros Not Gold Bearish

French CDS Hit Escape Velocity

ECB Member Tells The Truth: Debt Monetization Is The Beginning Of The End

Bank Of America Is A Fiver Again

European Funding Crisis Accelerating

Market Surges As Petulant Fed Dissenter Promises ZIRP To Last Longer Than Mid-2013

If anyone would like to take a stab at explaining where any of those seven headlines is not precious metal bullish, go right ahead. <crickets> So, with the fundamentals being soundly reinforced this morning, we turn to the charts for some insight as to where we might be headed this week.

First up, let's look at gold. The only thing disturbing the bullish picture this week is CoT report from Friday. Lots of spec longs were added along with an almost equal number of new Cartel shorts. This is, most certainly, not a bullish development. Always remember, though, that the CoT survey was taken after the close last Tuesday...a week ago today. With the beating that gold took on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, a lot of the spec longs were likely flushed. Then, the rally on Friday definitely contained a lot of Cartel short-covering as price jumped $30 yet the total open interest only grew by 70 contracts. The point is...the CoT situation is probably not as scary as the report made it look back on Friday.

For our first two gold charts, let's look at a daily and a 4-hour. It's very important to note the trend channel from the late September lows and that gold is comfortably rising within the channel.

For a short-term perspective, check out this 2-hour chart. This wedge needs to be watched for the next few days. For today, at least, resistance should come in between 1790 and 1795. IF we can get through there, 1800 will be equally challenging. However, once that level falls, $1850 or so will be our next target.

The situation in silver is a little more dicey. The CoT report wasn't quite as unnerving but the charts need to be watched. Fortunately, silver has now bounced off of its primary trendline twice in the last three days. This is a very helpful development. However, we must watch that line very closely. You can see it on all three of these charts. For today, that support is near $33.80. It is critical that silver stay above that level. Conversely, IF silver can break out through 35 and 35.60, our next target is 37 and then the area between 39 and 41.

OK, that's all for now. I'll have more for you later today. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 15, 2011 - 10:31am


Can it be?

PS - I told you 11/15/11 would be a day of great portents.

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:33am
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:38am

Alf field Keynote Speech

Carried over from the last thread.

For anyone attempting to educate unwilling relatives, print it and snail mail it to them. They may read it instead of an e-mailed link.

Brotha Bob
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:38am

It all looks good

It all looks good to me. With the expanding issues in Europe, I think the world is waking up to the fiat ponzu scheme. The EE has too many fires to controll. The game is almost up. Everyone worried about the COT report, that is a week old. Hmm, what happened in the past week since the reporting period closed?

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:39am

Back to PMs - Ag Au action.

Seriously, today is an important day, but the reversals this morning look a little too familiar. It's last night's drop in HK trading that spooked me real good. Any announcement I missed while in sleepy-by land? I'm looking at the ZH headlines and I can't see anything - darn that sterno! Anyone want to clue me in - this morning has been a little busy for me. The afternoon doesn't look much better - watch my 6 guys, OK? I'll be coming here when I can to see what important stuff I might miss along the way.

PS - Sorry (maybe not) that I missed last night's discussion (even during the time I was awake). Good stuff with "minor" skirmishes. Unfortunately I think we are splitting over both important (Constitutional) issues as well as unimportant (semantic) issues. Just goes to show IMHO how big our problems are in the world right now.

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:39am

cpnscarlet ... Is this it ?

What has this got to do with gold? Recently we passed the 40th anniversary of 15 August 1971, the date when the last link between currencies and gold was ended by President Nixon. This launched an era of floating “I owe you nothing” currencies. Money was what any government deemed it to be, generally something that the government could create in unlimited quantities. That system, plus the fractional reserve banking system, launched an era of ever increasing debt and credit. It was an era where debt was desirable and money lost its purchasing power

Dr G
Nov 15, 2011 - 10:40am

Turd, welcome back! Hope you

Turd, welcome back! Hope you are refreshed and feeling well? Are you gambling just on the tables in LV or are you still gambling with paper gold and silver?

Nov 15, 2011 - 10:46am

History for 11/15

This is one of the things that happened on this important date -

  • November 15, 1923: Rentenmark issued; pegged to the Gold Standard; Rentenmark 4.2 = 1 US dollar; at this time: Old Reichsmark 4,200,000,000 = 1 US dollar.
    1 New Rentenmark = 1 billion Old Reichsmark!

But that's not the punch line. You'll be told tonight - a convergence of minds; the end of one thing and the beginning of something "old".

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