Open Thread

243
Mon, Nov 14, 2011 - 9:41am

Whew! I've spent the last 60+ hours with Hyde and Sweetness in Vegas. Very fun and great to get away and decompress for a few days. I'm headed home now and will have a full post sometime later today. Until then, consider this an open thread to discuss the topics of the day.

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Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
YES
77%
NO
23%
Total votes: 176

  243 Comments

henry · Nov 14, 2011 - 9:44am
Ferd Torgerson · Nov 14, 2011 - 9:44am

Insider Trading by Members of Congress

Disgusting details being published and aired on television.

The OWS crowds really picked the wrong place to protest.

LongGoldLongSilver · Nov 14, 2011 - 9:50am

Mixed Stuff

Probably been posted before, but this one is funny:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyHPihyhKLk&feature=player_embedded

What about the gold and silver shares? They could possibly be even more suppressed than Ron Paul's air-time, but it's a close call.

We should be looking at the shares outperforming gold over the next six months or so. It's way over due and the ratio recently bottomed at extreme levels not seen since the beginning of 2009 when gold was way below $1000. Since the companies are making enormous profits at current gold prices, they're a hell of a lot better buys today. The financial risk of not being able to produce gold at a profit has in many cases disappeared completely. Though frustrated at times, I have never felt more certain that I have put my savings in the right sector. https://www.economicfreefall.com/2011/11/another-leader-gone.html

opticsguy · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:03am

remember, options expiration

Optionpain.com has the minimum pain point for a lot of the miners much lower than today's price. Expect a beatdown sometime before Friday to minimize the pain.

Example, max pain for GG Nov is $50.

WheelerSilver · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:10am

Can the Silver Bull be back!?

Take a look at the weekly silver chart. If you cut the crazy manipulation heavy months of March through October out and paste the chart back together we are right back into the strong and steady bull run of the early year. I am going to be VERY excited to see any breaks above the 35.25 range as that will signify a bust out of this 3 week range. The white metal is looking pretty strong actually... if you have the eyes to see it. Call it a hunch but I'm going to be buying a BIG mountain of phys today. Wish me luck!

=]

______________________________

https://www.wheelersilver.com

~Premo Handmade Bullion~

¤ · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:11am

What happens in Vegas....

....makes it's way to TFville maybe? Didn't think so.

Thanks for the open thread opportunity. Get some sleep.

Drifter · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:15am

@ economicfreefall.com

Jon Stewart is using Ron Paul as a spoiler, divide & conquer. Ron Paul has no chance to win. Hell I voted for that old fart & recently donated to him but he promptly lost me with his stance against killing American Al Qaida members in foreign lands.

So Herman Cain put his foot in his mouth by calling Nancy Pelosi a Princess? And HC is anti women because of this statement & the "controversy" currently in the media? Cain was being nice no doubt, I'm sure the phrase "crony capitalist whore" danced along the tip of his tongue without being uttered. wait, did I say that?surprise

Stewart is pandering to his audience.

dropout · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:24am

Gerald Celente gets Ripped Off!

Just read on ZH that Gerald Celente had his account with Lind-Waldock, the same as Turd did and that his GLD holdings are gone! He just kept rolling his profits over in this account for more GLD!

I thought he was smarter than that. Paper is paper is paper. Can't alter that. Phyzz iz phyzz! Play safe.

Eric Original · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:27am

Fractional Gold?

Had a nice chat via private message with a fellow Turdite a few nights ago, about all kinds of stacking issues. One portion of it that I think hasn't been discussed as much as some others was the question of Fractional Gold. Was it better to get the most bang for your buck with full ounce coins? Or is there some rationale for some fractionals as well. Here was my answer, that I felt might be worth sharing:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't know if there's a right answer on it. I'd encourage you to try to think ahead and envision what sorts of liquidation scenarios might lay ahead. It might be you selling someday if hard times hit. It might be your kids further down the line, for the same reasons, or just to liquidate the lot. Some of those scenarios might involve just wanting to sell just a little bit here or there. There could come a time when just one ounce of gold is a hefty amount of money. Maybe because you might want to just cash in a certain amount for the moment and no more. Maybe because of unknowable future reporting or tax considerations where perhaps smaller amounts might carry some advantage? Maybe easier to barter? There might be some advantages here or there to having at least a few fractionals. I've read stories about the Weimar Hyperinflation where people would literally sell off gold chains one link at a time to buy a sack of potatoes or a bag of flour.

On the other hand, I've always kind of felt that the ultimate in fractional gold is...Silver! Always has been the go to choice for smaller transactions. People have seldom in history (the Weimar exception above notwithstanding) gone to buy groceries with gold. It's too expensive. So, if you have an allocation to silver maybe you have the fractional side of things covered already.

One other different tack to think about in this regard. I happen to have quite a few fractionals. But not mostly because of the issues above. It's just that as an ongoing thing, it's easier to come up with 300-400 bucks at a crack to pick up a fractional when you find something you like, than it is to always have to come up with a full ounce worth or more. A lot of people are thinking "Well I've only got $400 right now. I can't afford gold. I'll buy silver instead." Let's think ahead on that one, along the lines that we've been talking about. I'm mostly geared toward gold. I'll happily pay a 3% premium for a full ounce coin, but avoid fractionals because I don't want to pay maybe 9%. So I buy silver instead with my $400. But I think that someday I'll likely be swapping that silver for gold anyway, and eating a premium differential on the swap. So have I really saved anything by going first to silver, and then to gold, rather than just paying a little more premium for a nice quarter ounce in the first place?

Hope that made sense. Kind of lost my train of thought in the middle of it there myself!

All in all, there's no right answer. We don't know the future. We need to hedge a lot of scenarios. We don't want all gold. We don't want all silver. We don't want all full ounce coins. We don't want all fractionals. The right answer will probably end up being in the middle of all that somewhere. Have at least a little of everything. That's my take. 

T · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:29am

Market action today

The S+P closed friday at the 1261 area,and was looking to settle into that triangle terminal we often see on fridays.....today's price action is pulling into the terminal at the 1250 area, a continuation of fridays price action. This wave action is not moving according to the days of the week, its moving according to wave structure, and in this case, Elliott wave is seeing it with some clear vision. Price action is coiling up here in the coming day or two.....get ready for it to break in some direction.

Which direction? Only the wizard knows.

 Target up would be 1300 and higher and target down would be 1200 and lower. 

High resistance abounds from 1300 to 1370 and low support is from 1220-to 1140....or 1100 .... or 1070 .... or 1040 ..... or 1010...... or July 2009 Pivot low.

schnitzel · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:35am

Jim Sinclair riddle

Does anyone have an opinion on this:

In The News Today

November 13, 2011, at 3:03 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category In The News | Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

My Dear Friends,

Alf Fields’ outlook on gold is coming Tuesday morning.

Regards,
Jim

The only outlook I could find was Alf Fields was expecting $3000 gold minimum? 

Or that he expect's extreme volatility?

Schnitzel

Monedas · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:35am

Turd, you're too much !

Well, I see everything filtered through my salt encrusted, barnacled, beach comber, yellowed, jaded eye lids ! After a few weeks in that New York snake pit....I guess the hot, recreational market play in Vegas is a relax......at least you can openly enjoy adult beverages at your work station ? Enjoy ! Please check out my last two post on the last thread.....even I thought they were rather "mediocre plus" ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Before Coffee and Make Up Tour ! devil PS : Turd, you're not trying to recoup the MFing you took ?

Gil · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:38am

@schnitzel

I had the same thought at the same time.

Dr G · Nov 14, 2011 - 10:43am

It appears the metals are

It appears the metals are capped today, as was the plan prior to the LBMA open. Sheesh. All is well with Italy. Greece has survived. Everybody is in better shape than ever before. Sell your gold for cash!!

Vypuero · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:01am

Markets

Looking for a breakout - technicals point to up, fundamentals point to down. However, the places to look are:

Break 1,200 S&P to downside, or $1,275 to the upside.

Break 2,240 in Nasdaq to downside, 2,420 in Nasdaq to the upside

Drifter · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:03am
Peaches Marie · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:03am

Gold at @3500?  @Schnitzel,

Gold at @3500? 

@Schnitzel, that is Alf's Wave III number (a Fibbonaci 5 times the October 2008 low). Here is the "FINAL" update from Alf Field, 25 November 2008. 

https://www.kitco.com/ind/Field/dec022008.html

Drifter · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:04am
Mammoth · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:04am

Question of the Day

Which way is the PM seesaw going to tilt?

On one side, you may have people fleeing the Euro, seeking something that has historically always had value. And you also have those who, although not holding Euros, are nervous about market volatility and excessive money printing.

However, at the opposite end of the pivot are those with (probably paper) PM's in hand, who must liquidate their holdings to raise cash.

So in which direction is the balance going to tip?

WineGuy · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:07am

Fractional Gold ....

I personally don't think the premiums are worth paying for the smaller (1/2oz, 1/4oz, 10gm, 5gm) AU coins. That's why you own 1oz AG coins/bars. Gold is for wealth preservation and Silver is for spending or self preservation. I also believe in the transition phase from our current system to the "new" system barter will be the name of the game. Stock up on necessities now! Say my dog needs some medicine, my vet who was unprepared for TSHTF says geez, I would have sold that medicine to you for $65 before the collapse but now I don't know, your cash or visa card is no good here. I'll reply to my vet yes you do know. The past value attached to the medicine was $65.00. How about I give you one bag of Cashmere toilet tissue valued at $20.00 and a nice bottle of wine valued at $45.00. I'm fairly confident my vet won't take long to answer me because he hasn't wiped his ass with tp in over a week and really needs a glass of wine forget about everything. 

blknblu1 · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:23am

Alf Field

I see there is already an answer to this, but I'll offer this as well from

https://www.jsmineset.com/2009/05/10/alf-field%E2%80%99s-gold-price-predictions/

We are presently in Major Up Move Three.

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

MrSteed · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:26am

Fractional Gold

They way I look at it is: who knows what to expect down the road? I think the bets defensive play is: diversity! Yeah, the premium is higher, but I was willing to pay some higher premium to have some of my AU in smaller quantities. So, I have everything from 1 gm bars on up ... I even carry a 1gm bar in my wallet at all times. Who knows!? I even diversify between coins and bars. At this point, I'm fairly satisfied with my fractional quantity, so I will only make larger purchases going forward in order to save on premiums. I'm always a bit puzzled when someone says gold is too expensive to buy... Well, you can buy a gram for what? $50-60? That's a couple of ounces of silver (and a lot more compact!)

Eric Original · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:34am

Mr Steed

Yeah, I love it when guys say "I can't afford gold. So I bought a roll of ASE's instead." WTF?

ivars · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:37am
Irene · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:45am

@Eric O/Fractionals

Great post. 

There's also the time aspect of investing. Let's say I'm a regular working sort of person who didn't inherit $1,000,000 from Aunt Tillie. I save a part of every pay check to be later converted to gold at the rate of 1/4 ounce per month. So, here's my choice: buy 1/4 ounce gold piece every month for 4 months, or wait 4 months to buy a 1 ounce coin. Now, there are plenty of periods where gold went up $100 in 4 months or even more. So, did I lose anything by paying the premium for fractionals but buying earlier at a lower price for 3 of those 4 fractionals? Probably not. 

Of course, the price could also drop over those 4 months. So, I think the trick is just to buy. Make it a habit and in the end the $10 here or there ain't gonna make any difference whatsoever.

As any store owner will attest, when trading you always need to be able to make change. Just think of any sale or purchase you'd want to make without the use of credit cards. Unless it's a fairly even amount, either the buyer or seller is going to need to make change. So, like the Boy Scouts say, "Be prepared!" Even barter isn't easily "even" unless you have small items to exchange to make up the difference. Think of that phrase, "Why don't you also throw in..... and you've got yourself a deal." 

Fortinbras · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:45am

Fractional Gold... In My Humble Opinion.

And again, I base this off of my experience not in America, but in Eastern/Central Europe, Central Asia...

If you DO NOT think there might eventually be a prolonged (6 months or more?), complete breakdown of fiat currency, there there is NO good reason to buy fractional gold, IMHO. In fact, there is no point in buying 1 oz coins/bars if you can afford 10 oz or larger, again, because of premiums. If you are doing it solely as a store of wealth, go as big as makes sense for you or to be able to offload in "chunks" when you decide, if ever, to sell.

If you DO think there may eventually be a prolonged, complete breakdown of fiat, then you should DEFINITELY have some fractional gold, even if you already have fractional silver (90% coins). If you don't have some fractional silver (90% coins), you should probably buy these before you buy just about anything else. I know I posted it on the old blog, not sure if I did here, but even in the small villages in Ukraine, about 3 years ago, EVERY branch bank started selling 5, 10 and 20 gram tiny Credit Suisse (and other) bars right at the teller window... they were on display. If TSHTF, your 1 oz silver is going to be "big," that's why everyone recommends getting some 90% coins... to barter/buy small stuff with. IMHO, same would be true with gold... couldn't hurt to have a little fraction for intermediate sized buys if you didn't want to burn up silver. If you have no fractional and TSHTF, you are going to wind up being a "huge tipper" for everything you buy and it won't be fun.

Basically I agree with Mr. Steed, just added some blather!

Just my two bits.

TitanAe · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:49am
TitanAe · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:51am

ALSO !!

I know the Nov 4 is passed but they usauly tip there hat !!!!!

Irene · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:51am

More on fractionals

There are also taxes and exposure to consider. If you only invest in larger pieces of gold, it's going to be harder to liquidate without the tax man finding out. And then there are the criminals finding out. If TSHTF, you can be sure that criminals and gangs will be sussing out who the buyers and sellers are because they are going to want a cut of the action and they're going to head first for people with the goods and gold. 

What? You didn't think you'd have to pay protection money? Ha! 

ScottJ · Nov 14, 2011 - 11:53am
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