11/11/11

290
Fri, Nov 11, 2011 - 10:21am

Just a short update this morning as The Turd has a big weekend planned and it all gets underway in a couple of hours.

First of all, your charts. We seem to have survived the quick, 48-hour selloff/correction/setback...whatever you want to call it. Though I had hoped gold would hold 1750, it did find support between 1740 and 1750 and, with the benefit of hindsight, you can clearly see that support should have come in there. As to where we go from here, we finished last week at 1756 so anything above there would be terrific. From the looks of the charts this morning, I imagine we'll finish the day somewhere around 1775 or 1780.

Silver held in quite well this week and simply needs a close above $34.08 to close the books with another UP week. Always remember, "what had been resistance becomes support and vice versa". $33 is a magic level for silver. After the September correction, it took silver 5 weeks to crawl back above that level. It has now used 33 as support for the two weeks since. Look for this to continue. In fact, support for silver is from 33 down to 32 so only a dip and close below 32 would signal a trend change and cause me to rethink my $39-41 target.

You might enjoy this next item. Back on Tuesday, I had the honor of being a guest for one of Chris Martenson's podcasts. I was a little worried about how it would turn out as I has strained my back on Sunday and I was into the muscle relaxers pretty good. I'm happy to report that it seems to have come off OK. I hope you agree.

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher For Precious Metals
Taps

TF out.

About the Author

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  290 Comments


Nov 12, 2011 - 10:18am

Ah, Saturdays I can tell a bad joke

For Juan Moment

Once there were two twin brothers, from a Mexican/Iranian marriage, named Juan and Jamal. Jamal moved to California, and Juan stayed in Texas. Juan met a pretty girl, and she had a cute friend too. The one girl asked the other girl if she thought she might like to date Juan's twin.

"But I haven't even met him," she said.

"Don't worry," her friend replied, "Once you've seen Juan you've seen Jamal."

I mean, how often do you have a Juan joke and then meet a Juan pun online! See, this site is particular.

Stormdancer
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:18am

Juan Moment

If I may use your post to bounce off of :). I would like to take this as an opportunity to share with any newcomers something that was vital to me in developing my current outlook. Since Chris Martenson is featured prominently here it's as good as opportunities get.

Exponential function is not really all that difficult to understand. The problem is way too few have been exposed to it. Several years ago Chris Martenson developed something called the "Crash Course", which is an incredible introduction to exponential function, along with intuitive applications to current realities.

The Crash Course is a series of video "chapters" (20 of them) ranging from 3 to 20 minutes each so they can be watched in bites as time allows. It is time well spent and in my opinion indispensable for anyone wanting a good understanding of the foundations of today's reality. Linked below:

The Crash Course

Hammer
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:19am

Layman's Guide to Italy and

Layman's Guide to Italy and what this week was all about.

The root of Italy's problems

Nov 12, 2011 - 10:29am

Hamer re Italy video

Straightforward, but the best is at the very end when he tosses his marker - says it all - frustration, no knowing when it will blow, and the strange humour in watching the financial train wreck that is the Eurozone.

joe rocker
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:34am

"Feminizing" is what has

"Feminizing" is what has brought the "west" down. This idea that everyone is and needs to be treated as a complete equal is what has brought us down and will eventually bankrupt us. The "end of the great keynesian experiment" is eventually, you run out of people who actually work. And I include women in that "non-worker" catagory. The day the first "affirmitive action" was taken, be it for a black or a woman...it marked the beginning of the end. Women DO belong at home raising their children...NOT out in the working world as competition to men. Don't you get it? It's part of the plan. Part of the misinformation. Equality = substandard. Diversity destroys.

I'll gladly take this to the fight club, I'd love to hold up a mirror to a few of you...show you what you really are worth.

Pendulums swing both ways...you girls have had too much of a say in things these last 50 years...I think it's time the men take over for a while...your way doesn't work...never has. All lasting civilizations have had "real men", not sissy boys in charge. Look for your metrosexual to turn neanderthal.

Just saying... Just my opinion...


Nov 12, 2011 - 10:34am

I think I am in love with Nigel Farage

Farage: 'Barroso in the Bunker' planning world domination

Nov 12, 2011 - 10:44am

Joe

Lots of women here Joe:

How many women in power here Joe:

https://chetanjain.hubpages.com/hub/top-IT-companies-and-their-CEO

Silver Hag
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:50am

About world population

Check out this TED talk by Hans Rosling about debunking third world myths if you want to get reasonably updated (2006) information about child birth rate and such https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUwS1uAdUcI

If you are interested you can find more fun statistics here https://www.gapminder.org/videos/

enkidu George Clooney
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:58am

@Xty Nigel Farage

I'm from the SE England, he will be getting my vote. The bloke is totally on the ball, Nigel to Prime Minister!

Harald
Nov 12, 2011 - 10:59am

Juan & Jamal

I don't know...I've seen many more than one, but I still like to look at em.

Thieving Corp. ivars
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:01am

@ivars-has this trend stopped?

In real life processes, approximated much better by log-periodic than purely log (or exponential) model, such plateaus are natural places ( even sometimes dropping down below previous max level) for next even superexponential growth to start. So , if the trend is approximated log periodically, it will continue after some delay to grow fast.

Sure, but the trend I am referring to is a technological trend driven by human ingenuity and discovery. A review of the forum topic thread I linked to above shows that many experts are stumped as to how growth in computing performance can resume its former trend of before 2004. Note that these experts include several companies who would love to sell faster computers, if they could only build them. If nobody knows how to build faster computers, how can the previous trend be continued?

There are reasons and conditions behind every trend; when those change, the trend may change direction, sometimes in a dramatic fashion.

ivars
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:01am

When does the developed world start having children again? 2016

By looking at the "potential" log periodic curves of population growth ( it has not been exponential, it has been super exponential) one has to ask , for a revolution in birth number when does the developed world will have to have > 6 kids /family again ( that is the first integer number of kids "per pair" (in old fashioned sense) that is slightly above below exponential growth)?

If once again have a look at the chart:

And applying some logic -with current financial wipe out, and demographic trends together, when will pensions in the West end- around 2020, I guess (I could not find any references) so around that time or even before people will have to start having more children as safety for future and cheap labor at childhood. These children in turn will become able to carry children ( by then a clear world wide family planning policy) at around 2036-2040 so a worldwide boom of newborns from 2040-2042 onwards seems logical- AND very dangerous, as it will be the final boost before correction crash- "regime change". I do not really believe 9 billions will leave for Mars.

ReachWest
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:03am

@Joe

Feminism is the root of our economic woes - the cause of the rampant greed and corruption we now have? Wow - I wish that was the case. Don't think it's quite that simple.

Fr. Bill George Clooney
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:08am

Re: I think I am in love with Nigel Farage

He is extravagantly amusing! He makes me think of a public-debate version of what Tyler Durden writes at Zero Hedge -- saying all the things everyone who is sane wishes someone would say, plus saying them with astounding verve, style, and punch.

And, here's another thing I love about Nigel -- when he unloads like this, it's never at some ethereal, disembodied opponent. No! He looks right at the EU President, and says "You have the charima of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk." The best line (or, at least, my fave in that rant) was this: "Who ARE you? I'VE never heard of you. Nobody in EUROPE had ever heard of you. I would like to ask you, President, who VOTED for you?"

Can you imagine the rioting that would break out in America if any conservative politician ever spoke as Farage does? Yes, yes, bloggers speak this way all the time, but they don't count, dontcha know.

This is why I can't bear to watch speeches from the floor of the House or Senate on C-SPAN. They're the rhetorical equivalent of chugga-lugging a gallon of room-temperature spit.

I Run Bartertown
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:14am

joe

You have elements of truth wrapped in an unappealing wrapper.

I'm sure many here are mature enough to engage in a discussion of how harmful the Emasculation of men in our society has been. Affirmative action is a cancerous tumor, and people of goodwill here would be willing to hear you out. Feminism has exacted a grievous toll. We could talk about it.

The merits of a culture with children raised by mothers could be discussed in detail. It's because of TPTB's inflation and taxes that households NEED 2 incomes, so people here would be receptive to bashing that 'norm'. I'm sure of it.

But to present it as so dismissive of women...as if most of them thought this all out and chose it, as opposed to riding a PTB-induced wave of social experimentation along with the rest of us...well, that's just rude. A world where my daughter cannot choose for herself - whether it's feminists demanding one thing, or you demanding another, is not one she'll tolerate, I assure you.

ReachWest
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:15am

@Xty - Re Farage

I too am a big fan of Farage. I only wish there were more politicians like him - he's certainly not afraid to speak his mind in plain and pointed language.

One thing that always irritates me though, is watching those videos during his EU parliament speeches and seeing the other MEP's chuckling and sneering at his comments. Farage gets it, he speaks the truth and the others chuckle and sneer at him - it's symbolic of their attitude towards their own constituents and the paternalistic attitude that prevails amongst the so-called political elite.


Nov 12, 2011 - 11:16am

6 degrees of separation?

I am convinced. There really are only 6 degrees of separation in the world!

A colleague from down the hall stopped by my office Wednesday morning to continue our ongoing discussion on world banking and economics. He told me that he received a call last week from a friend of his who teaches economics in Beijing. Someone from the Chinese government had called for his advice on whether or not China should bail out Europe. Before answering, that friend called my colleague to ask his advice. My colleague advised him that "China should not bail our Europe, that it would only make things worse. Europe needs to solve its own problems and China needs to solve theirs." I confirmed, due to the wonderful education I received from you.

I know a guy, who knows a guy, who knows a guy that said "No" to the European central bank, which will hasten the eventual crash of the Western Banking system! That makes 4. You, my fellow turdite are the fifth degree. Your strange friend from high school who found you on facebook and now lives in China Grove TX, is the sixth degree.

murphy
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:31am

assorted info

I have put this together in an email to send to some of my nearest and dearest to try to enlighten them to the future. But it might be helpful to others as well.

This is mainly directed to the newbies that might find this info in one place easy to wrap your head around. This is a recycled compilation of info that I have gathered from many of the wonderful members of Turdville in the last couple of days, who's names I didn't save.

This is a very simple example of what is going on in regards to Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc3bqxmo6bY&feature=player_embedded

What's worse is that Spain is in the same boat just bigger. I just came across this today.

https://barcepundit-english.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-spain-cooking-its-bo...

Lastly, the US situation is MUCH bigger and worse. The only thing they ALL can do is print more money, When they stop printing old forms of Euros and dollars the IMF will then start printing SDR's which are another form of worthless money to back stop the current worthless monies. This is not an easy read but enlightening

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-did-us-sdr-holdings-increase-five-...

And here's another one

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-why-fed-needs-cut-dollar-half-ove...


Captain Bring Down signing off.

edit: my apologies to all the posters who I borrowed the links from and I could not name at this time

¤
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:31am

It's Not Enough to Own Gold and Silver

It's Not Enough to Own Gold and Silver By Simon Black, founder, Sovereign Man Friday, August 26, 2011

Every day, more and more people are waking up to the idea that they must own gold to protect their assets from out-of-control government spending, borrowing, taxing, and confiscation.

And owning gold is a great first step, but history shows responsible people should do more before it's too late...

For example, Rome was the world's most prosperous republic for centuries. Around the time of Julius Caesar (49 B.C.), that changed. Caesar assumed the powers of a dictator, but was soon assassinated. Once warring consuls Antony, Lepidus, and Octavian were finished duking it out with each other in 31 B.C., any semblance of the original Roman republic was gone forever. In the following years,... https://www.dailywealth.com/1823/It-s-Not-Enough-to-Own-Gold-and-Silver

Nov 12, 2011 - 11:40am

For what it's worth

I stayed home, home-schooled my kids through Grade 5, and still keep the home fires burning, despite my illustrious academic career. We moved to a smaller town where life was more affordable, bought a cheap little house which we live in to this day as it crumbles around us, and took the income hit. Although my husband was able to succeed in his career because he had me - so I really earned half his income - at least in my mind. But my mum was a Professor - 2/3 time - and fought hard to be taken seriously. I had a choice - now my daughter is in 3rd year biochem and intends to attempt to cure certain types of childhood cancer. If you met her, you would put your money on her over any of her classmates - she is tops. I want her to fulfill that dream and have kids. I might help raise them. So I took the hit, and maybe my daughter's kid will too, to keep our kids raised by their mum. One of my best friends had her mum take care of her kids while she worked - nothing wrong with granny is there?

So Joe - sorry you feel threatened by the female brain. I too think affirmative action is a terrible scourge, not to mention incredibly insulting. On all my university applications the first page would be some stupid pledge about equality and diversity and the next page would ask what group you self-identified with. Insanity.

Oh, and both my daughter's grannies graduated top of their class too. Not to mention her mum.

Monedas George Clooney
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:52am

Nigel Monedas reporting in, Xty !

How could you ? ........ I'm in love with him, too ! Well, "It's almost like being in love !" ! At least you and I are in love at the same time ? Pure Monedas hopium ! I'm looking at the furniture in that EDP ! How plastic, blonde, European Socialist period benches with concentration camp number tags for each internee.....and look at the dais (?) for the leaders......looks the the bridge of an inquisitional, funeral barge a la Star Trek ! What tacky, Socialist, post modern, interior design committee bad taste ! Consider the conservative dark, dignified tones of the House of Common's opposition benches and the modest dais ? Good taste is priceless ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad May there always be a Monedas !

CreditCrumbs George Clooney
Nov 12, 2011 - 11:54am

Over-population

I would argue that many people got it wrong with regard to the extent of the problem of over-population.

1st mistake: calculating population growth in term of percentage rather than absolute number.

Population growth has been slowing, for example projection for 2050 is 10.5 billion, that's only 50% more than today, annual growth rate of less than 1%. But in terms of absolute number, that's 3.5 billion more than today. Where do you find resources to sustain these additional 3.5 billion?

2nd mistake: confusing demand for resources with the size of population.

Many people assume that if there is 1% more people on earth next year, demand for natural resources will be 1% higher than before. That's wrong. It depends on the type of consumption demanded by these people. You can have population declining but demand for natural resources rapidly increasing. Think about it this way, it takes 2 lbs of grain to get 1 lb of chicken, 4 lbs of grain to get 1 lb of pork, and 8 lbs of grain to get 1 lb of beef. So suppose people want to eat beef instead of grain, then demand for natural resources increases by 8 times even when population is constant, comparable to the demand from 56 billion people without consumption demand change.

3rd mistake: confusing natural resource production with manufacturing

You can improve manufacturing yield with increase in productivity without long-term consequences. Take for example auto production. You can substitute more expensive materials for less expensive materials (metal for plastic), you can reduce amount of materials used (reduced size), you can automate, etc. You can't do the same with food. Can you substitute more expensive food to less expensive food? Yes, but only to some extent, and often at the expense of health. Can you make do with less food? No, people need 2000 calories a day. Making do with 1000 calories will require centuries of adaptation (e.g. tall people starve, die, and do not reproduce, only short people reproduce). Can you automate? Yes, using mechanical tools for farming, but at the expense of top soil being lost at a faster pace than with conventional tools. Can you improve yield more? Yes, by using more and more fertilizer, but at the expense of higher demand for fossil fuel.

4th mistake: assuming peak natural resources can be solved by technology

Technology only helps in extracting natural resources at a faster rate, rather than reducing use of natural resources. The latter requires reduced consumption and/or reduced population size. Look at fracking, does it help us conserve resources or accelerate the extraction of non-renewable resources? We are consuming everything that is non-renewable. Coal takes hundreds of million years to form, aquifer requires hundreds to thousands of year to replenish, etc. Amazon forests in Brazil are being cleared for soy bean production. Have you ever wondered why historically there were very few people living in the tropical forests like the Amazon? That's because the soil productivity is very poor and cannot sustain prolonged food production. People will be in for a rude awakening in a few years or decades that you cannot use tropical forest soil for industrial farming.

To summarize, over-population is here, folks. We are endangering ourselves by increasing natural resource extraction for the short term while ignoring sustainability for the long term. What is gold good for if there is no enough food to feed us?

PS: Thomas Robert Malthus was right. He had been correct in describing the rise and fall of population up correctly until we discovered oil. Malthus' prediction is not a glitch. The discovery of oil is the glitch. If peak oil is really here, Malthus will be proven correct again.

I Run Bartertown
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:00pm

Credit Crumbs

So, that's bullish for Silver, right?

ivars
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:03pm

Natural reaction

In previous posts I meant that in order to secure growth humans will replace increasing debt (that system is now collapsing ) with growing the population.

(One of) the MAIN reason(s) growing population so popular in many places is that they do not have access to long term debt. so they grow other numbers- children.

Which will be the case in the West very soon as well.

Monedas
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:11pm

@ ReachWest !

Just look at how one plain speaking Brit with a little common sense can stir things up ! I'd like to see all of Parliament fill the EDP on a guest visit ! That would liven things up a bit ! Anyone sounds more intelligent with a British accent......except for the Labour, Liberal and the Socialist idiots ! Lipstick and good diction doesn't do much for pigs ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Saturday Review


Nov 12, 2011 - 12:13pm

Re: Overpopulation

My point is that the system self-corrects. There is no way to calculate the right number of people that the world can sustain - thus you cannot claim over-population. At different points in time that number is radically different - and undoubtedly changes day to day, through changes in weather and technology, etc. So people are born and people die - if we have over-extended our resource extraction, and the world cannot continue to sustain this many people, more people will die than are born. This is one of those problems that has a worse solution than initial 'problem'. And if the world is already over-populated, then the number of people should start going down, not up. We might not like the living conditions of some of the world's people, and we might be responsible for those living conditions. But it should never be someone else's decision if you should conceive a child.

C F
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:14pm

I'm not sure if anyone has

I'm not sure if anyone has ever posted a link to this site before but I just discovered it. It has a lot of useful information. Some of it is basic and some is advanced. The finance portion of the site is a good tool to use to try and better understand how leveraging works in the financial markets.

https://www.khanacademy.org/

Bobbejaan Doctor J
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:16pm

@Dr Jerome ... It's all YOUR fault

Quote:
A colleague from down the hall stopped by my office Wednesday morning to continue our ongoing discussion on world banking and economics. He told me that he received a call last week from a friend of his who teaches economics in Beijing. Someone from the Chinese government had called for his advice on whether or not China should bail out Europe. Before answering, that friend called my colleague to ask his advice. My colleague advised him that "China should not bail our Europe, that it would only make things worse. Europe needs to solve its own problems and China needs to solve theirs." I confirmed, due to the wonderful education I received from you.
Congratulations on Winning The Scapegoat Lottery ...

When the SHTF & the world economy collapses in chaos ... YOUR picture will be posted at the top of the Department of HomePlanet Security's "Enemy of The Planetary State" most-wanted hitlist, and you will probably spend the rest of your life as a Fugitive (cue Tommy-Lee Jones intro-music) from all the good-citizens wanting to claim the reward for turning you into the "Truth & Reconciliation Committee".

.

But on the brighter side ... Many here will give you sanctuary & help to hide you, You Dirty Rat !

Juan Moment
Nov 12, 2011 - 12:30pm

Rent This Subject Line - You know it makes sense

@ Xty, har har, one to remember. Here my reply. What is the difference between beer nuts and deer nuts? Beer nuts you find for a $1.80 and deer nuts are just under a buck.

@ Stormdancer, thanx for the link to Martenson's crash course on economic fantasy meets numerical reality. Hockey sticks are a sight to behold, wouldn't mind seeing my pm stash increase along those lines

Whenever someone says "Hey, don't worry, world population grows at rate of only 1.4% pa" its worthwhile to crank out the 'rule of 70', meaning to calculate how long before it doubles from our current 7 to 14 billion, divide 70 by the growth rate, which calculates to about 50 years. Not a pleasant prospect.

The same bleak outlook thanks to compound growth applies to cost of living expenses. With countries, states, municipalities, consumers, all loaded up to the eyeballs with debt and global economies weak as Popeye without his spinach, interest rates won't be allowed to rise. Instead massive quantities will be eased into the capital markets. Freshly digitized money is going to inflate away sovereign debts and prop up the badly staggering system. At some point, with real inflation rates possibly galloping to 7% in the not too distant future, we can expect prices for every day goods and utilities to double by 2025, whilst I bet my bottom dollar wages growth over the same period will have the brakes applied.

Fortinbras
Nov 12, 2011 - 1:07pm

re: Population Growth

I can agree with what everyone is saying so far, from Ivars to XTY to everone in between. I think what we forget about sometimes, primarily due to the fact that we THINK we are smarter than men (and women for the other ongoing discussion) 3-5,000 years ago and that with all our wonderful new technology in things like crop yield, medicine... we are somehow immune to The Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse, or what I call "the great equalizers"... ... famine. ... war. ... pestilence/disease. ... and I'll add in natural disaster on the scale of a "Canary Islands even" magnitude. We THINK we are smarter, but look how huge a breakthrough merely washing ones hands was to medicine. We are due for a "natural smackdown" that might take the world population down by as much as 25-30%. It's happened before, why on Earth do we think "It couldn't possibly happen in this day and age?!?!?!"... yeah right, just like there is no way the dollar could collapse... right? ;) Only question on all of these things is the "WHEN"... not the "IF."

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