Wed, Nov 9, 2011 - 11:11am

Oooh, boy. Today is shaping up to be a real doozy. The rest of this week, too. It will be important to remain calm.

News of margin hikes on Italian debt and an Italian 10-year note trading above 7% has sent global markets reeling this morning. In response, gold and silver have traded off of their highs as the world spins into "risk off" mode. Now, while I can't say for sure when the world will flip back to "risk on", I do know this: The only way out is the creation of new, paper money. Defaults, bankruptcy, "haircuts"...all lead to the same conclusion. The only tool that central banks have to forestall disaster and collapse is the printing press. Though the day-to-day machinations of the PM markets can drive you crazy with their seemingly nonsensical price moves, your only protection through this storm is physical metal. Continue to acquire it...while you still can.

Let's start with silver. No change in my forecast from earlier this week. Even though its been washed back some today, I still ardently believe that a sharp upleg is coming that will take silver to and through 37 and, from there, up to our target area of 39-41.

Though gold has been pushed back, too, the resistance certainly wasn't unexpected. My initial target from 2 1/2 weeks ago was 1780-1840 and we split the difference to call it 1810. Here's the chart from 10/25:

And here is the chart from two days ago:

So the question is, where do we go from here? In a word...higher! Gold has built a terrific base of support below it and, very soon, it will charge through 1800 and hold. From there, the next major resistance should be somewhere around 1840 and, once it gets through there, it will head back to the September highs. My initial forecast from 2 weeks ago was for a 10% rally in five weeks to 1810. We can just about call that good as gold reached 1805 yesterday. However, I like these charts very much and they're telling me there is more room to run this month. As mentioned Monday, if we can hold the line this week and close above or near 1800, we should be very optimistic about the prospects for $1900 gold before the end of the month.

OK, that's all for now. Hang in there and try to enjoy the ride. TF

p.s. John Soltez has offered to be a part of an ongoing forum thread. You can find it here:

If you have any questions for John, he will respond directly to you in this forum.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 9, 2011 - 7:05pm

Found this deal on SGS's site...

I guess you can only order this little deal once, and the quantity limit for each is just (1), but looks worth it...

Thanks SGS

cpnscarlet I Run Bartertown
Nov 9, 2011 - 7:09pm

@Bartertown - I'm not saying

@Bartertown - I'm not saying that it's a slam dunk that the pols will respond in any fashion. Even the most "liberal" are so in bed with the banks that little will happen EXCEPT if hundreds of thousands of letters hit at once, and even then ... little or no action.

But short of throwing Molotovs through MFG windows, I don't know a better route to bring real attention to this criminal event. The MSM is giving Crozine a much better start out of the gate so far than they gave Madoff.

cpnscarlet donnojackshit
Nov 9, 2011 - 7:17pm

@donnjs - whistle while you

@donnjs - whistle while you ...

"...and told her that I would start yelling at the top of my voice, that the bank had no cash and would not give me my money 'Mary Poppin's style". With the possibility of 500 customers in the bank seeing a crazed individual starting a bank run, they relented and gave me my money reluctantly and with a scowl.

Moral of the story, " The squeeky wheel gets the lubricant" so yell your fucking tits off if they won't give you YOUR MONEY!"

Okay everyone, let's sing - "Just a spoon full of sugar helps the interest rates go down..."

Turd F - Practically perfect in every way.

cpnscarlet Save_America1st
Nov 9, 2011 - 7:20pm

@Save_America1st -

@Save_America1st - unfortunately we've become so silver-paranoid, my first thought is "They must know something - price is gonna crash soon." Hope I'm wrong AND not paranoid.

SteveW pheeseas
Nov 9, 2011 - 7:21pm


How ungrateful of them after the nice folks at JPM arranged those interest rate swaps.

No doubt JPM won't suffer as they'll have hedged their exposure with a CDS using another mug, ahem, investor.

Eric Original
Nov 9, 2011 - 7:42pm


Seems like a pretty tight spread on the swap. I say go for it.

Nov 9, 2011 - 7:46pm

10K gets reported in Canada

What must be Reported?

Large Cash Transactions

If you are a reporting entity, you have to send a large cash transaction report to FINTRAC in the following situations:

  • You receive an amount of $10,000 or more in cash in the course of a single transaction; or

  • You receive two or more cash amounts of less than $10,000 that total $10,000 or more (24-hour rule). In this case, if you are an individual, you have to make a large cash transaction report if you know the transactions were made within 24 consecutive hours of each other by or on behalf of the same individual or entity. If you are an entity, you have to make a large cash transaction report if your employee or senior officer knows the transactions were made within 24 consecutive hours of each other by or on behalf of the same individual or entity.

You have to send a large cash transaction report to FINTRAC within 15 calendar days after the transaction....

Nov 9, 2011 - 7:56pm

Harvey's latest...

says the PM's will hit 1800 and 35 again tomorrow and then watch the EE fight start all over again like today...

From Harvey's report: "we gained another 11.5 tonnes of gold into the GLD. My goodness, these guys are good at getting gold in quantity. The GLD inventory has increased for each of the last 3 days. This gold i belongs to the Bank of England and the GLD obtains the gold through a swap. The bank receives cash and the GLD receives the gold. The problem is that this must be unwound at the whim of the B. o E.

What is more frightening as that this gold does not belong to the Bank of England but to investors who deposit their gold at the bank like you and I would deposit cash to our bank. This no doubt will be a catastrophic event similar to the MF Global mess."

Anybody else got anything on this??? Wow...Turd???
Swift Boat Vet
Nov 9, 2011 - 8:04pm

Stormdancer and Eric ---- GSR Swap

Thanks guys !!! I deeply appreciate your opinions on this. Appreciated so much that I just got off the phone accepting the swap. You are two here who I value input on questions like this. Thanks again.



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