Through The Wormhole

Thu, Nov 3, 2011 - 4:33pm

Wow, what a nice day this turned out to be. When I hit the rack last night, it appeared today was going to be a real doozy. Instead, the metals reversed at around 4:00 a.m. and then rallied like crazy on the Comex. Did I wake up in some kind of alternate, parallel universe?

Seriously, today was quite unusual. All the negativity and fear of last evening morphed into a genuine, "risk-on" day with metals, crude and commodities all charging higher. Stocks even rallied as the S&P rose over 23 points! The only thing that assures me that I did not slip through a wormhole overnight is the under-performance of silver. Crude up $1.50 and gold up $35. Silver up 50c. All is right in the EE-controlled world.

That's not to say that the charts don't look good. In fact, they look terrific, particularly gold. Early last week, I stuck out my neck with a call of a 10% rally in gold from 1650 to 1810 before November ends. So far, so good. We're about 2/3 of the way there. I'm expecting some resistance around 1765 and again near 1795. However, the chart looks great and the fundos are, of course, positive. Keep the faith.

While silver also looks good, it's just not as compelling as gold right now. Getting back above 33.60 was significant and now, if it can handle 34.75, it looks poised to tackle last week's highs at 35.70. If/when it gets through there, our target of 37 will be in sight and, with enough momentum, it could still see $39 before significant capping/selling comes in.

I leave you tonight with another fabulous commentary from Jeff Nielson. Please take the time to read it.

Have a great evening. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 3, 2011 - 4:42pm

What no comments?

First night I was flat in awhile

Nov 3, 2011 - 4:43pm


I think I've made it aboard.

Nov 3, 2011 - 4:43pm



Nov 3, 2011 - 4:45pm


For your daily commitment to this blog Turd.

Nov 3, 2011 - 4:45pm

"Freedom to Fail"

That looks like what the collapse of Mfing Global is going to be labeled as.

No bailouts for anyone and all the customers lose their money.

Nov 3, 2011 - 4:45pm

@Eric O...

My aunt was born in Kirkland Lake... my Dad in Timmins/Schumacher. They grew up in all the mining towns of Northern Ontario... Cobalt, Timmins/South Porcupine, Kirkland Lake, Sudbury, Blind River/Spanish/Elliot Lake... my great uncle was the manager of the McIntrye gold mine in Schumacher during its peak. Lots of interesting stories and got invited to his induction (posthumously) into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame. When I was a kid and went up there with my Dad, everyone over the age of 50 wanted to shake my hand because of my name, and I was only 6 or 7 at the time! ;)

aurum argentum
Nov 3, 2011 - 4:46pm


But what can we expect tomorrow with those BLBS numbers etc. Will gold care one way or the other?

And then there's Maude. er, I mean Greece. This all is like watching a soap opera. The drama!

Nov 3, 2011 - 4:53pm


Im sticking with my year end prediction. w/o any +-. if im wrong. who cares

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:00pm

Engdahl: Arab Spring a Western Ploy to Control Eurasia

My son pointed this important video to me, so I though to share it with the rest of you

The ultimate goal of the US is to take the resources of Africa and Middle East under military control to block economic growth in China and Russia, thus taking the whole of Eurasia under control, author and historian William F. Engdahl reveals.

Economical Disaster
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:09pm

Get Ready: WORLD WAR 3 Is About To HIT!

Wasting no time after its success in getting the administration to oppose Palestinian statehood at the United Nations, and still celebrating the UNESCO funding cut-off, AIPAC has returned to its #1 priority: pushing for war with Iran.

The Israelis have, of course, played their own part in the big show. In the last few weeks, it has been sending out signals that it is getting ready to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities (and embroil the United States...

even steven
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:10pm

European Crisis

From Karl Denninger: "Merkel and Sarkozy blew it by not insisting that their banks get rid of their leverage after 2008 -- they instead allowed the plunder to continue, intentionally ignoring the fact that their banks had intentionally taken a ticking thermonuclear financial device on their balance sheets. Then they compounded their error by giving Papandreou the boogie stick while trying to threaten him and his people!"

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:13pm

What a day

And what a week for the eurozone.I didn't expect g-pap to call for a referendum yesterday and didn't expect him to retract the sentiment today. Is he just saying anything in the hope of saving his own skin? How long has he got left anyway? I think he'll lose the confidence vote tomorrow which will be followed by silence from the Greek ministry and noise in the markets. Then, once the Markets close his resignation will be announced. Today is the first day I've felt real sentiment from Europe that they think Greece leaving could be a realistic possibility. Is the denial phase finally over?

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:14pm

Thanks T

Interesting gold activity indeed.

This is the period in time where it becomes solidified as a viable safe haven world wide. The faith in paper of all kinds and even the trust among Govt.'s seems to have cemented that fact in the market place. Gold is experiencing steady buying it appears.

If the traditional safe haven of bonds themselves and the debt loads of the majority of G20 have come into focus this sharply and the ability to repay the debt is in question then gold is the obvious safety play and it's getting stronger. I'm encouraged.

Incremental $20-30 advances work for me. But just think what happens when a little bit of that sideline money starts flowing into the miners and the PM's themselves.

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:15pm
even steven
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:15pm

A Perversely Perfect War

From Bill Bonner: "You have to wonder why America would want to kill even a single Iraqi, let alone at a cost of $8 million each. WWII killed far more people — 50 million. Total spending on the war, by all the combatants, was probably around $10 trillion (our estimate). This puts the cost per corpse at only $200,000. WWII was far more efficient.

But WWII was a real war, not a zombie war. The real goal of a zombie war is neither to kill people…nor even to win. It is to transfer wealth from the real economy to the zombie industry, in this case, defense."

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:18pm

back up in this

just wanted to quickly say that i sEE a blast oFF friday in the cards...and that $25 phyZZ some are caLLin for is going to have a liTTle bit of a wait. got mine the last time we hit 28 and 30.5 and glad i did. i wiLL be doing that again...if and when ;o) options here could provide a quick dip...provident metals...they ship to my house w/ no tax. imagine that

Dr G
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:23pm

I just wish that WB would

I just wish that WB would "re-engage" silver again.

Thanks for the check-in, Turd. Much appreciated. Great call on gold.

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:33pm

MORE Bum Cleansers (Toilet Paper replacement)

You can use a live goose for the following: ..... Wiping your bottom with.

Rabelais claimed that a live goose was the best thing to wipe your bottom with. The full quote from Gargantua is:

"'I have', answered Gargantua, 'by a long and curious experience found out a means to wipe my bum. The most lordly, the most excellent, the most convenient that was ever seen. I have wiped my tail with a hen, with a cock, with a pullet, with a calf's skin, with a hare, with a pigeon, with a cormorant, with an attorney's bag, with a Montero, with a falconer's lure. But to conclude, I say and maintain that of all the torcheculs, arsewisps, bumfodders, tail-napkins, bunghole cleansers, and wipe-breeches, there is none in the world comparable to the neck of a goose, that is well downed, if you hold her head betwixt your legs. And believe me therein upon mine honour, for you will thereby feel in your nockhole a most wonderful pleasure, both in regard of the softness of the said down and of the temporate heat of the goose, which is easily communicated to the bum-gut and the rest of the inwards, in so far as to come even to the regions of the heart and brains.'"



So there you have it Guys & Gals ... When we get back to the stone age in our feudal hovels, simply grab a live goose from the pen & stuff it up your jacksie and throw it back in the pen when you've finished (they're self-cleaning [eventually]).

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:34pm

Top 25!?

That was a fine Nielson piece, Bill Murphy struck it up on Le Met today...

2% on the button...

New Andy:

Chaos in Europe

Written by Andrew Hoffman on November 03 2011


Thursday morning, and once again I changed my title due to the seemingly minute-to-minute changes in Europe, moving at the pace of “ludicrous speed”, per a scene from one of my favorite 1980s movies, Spaceballs:

“Prepare for…..Ludacrous Speed”!!!

I literally can’t get through an email, or type a paragraph, before the next headline pops up that something dramatic has occurred in Greece, or Italy, or France, etcetera. The much ballyhooed G-20 meeting commences this morning in Cannes, France, yet another “Emergency Meeting” held in a five-star hotel, attended by a bunch of well-heeled blowhards from around the world with below average intelligence but above-average schmoozing skills. YOU are paying for these multi-million dollar meetings, which do nothing but make an already terrible situation worse. I ASSURE you, ANYTHING these morons touch will turn to lead

Read more

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:37pm

Great short video: The Essence of Money

I think this crowd will really like this, I know I did...

Video unavailable
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:38pm

@Dr G - Thanks for the

@Dr G - Thanks for the reminder about the b-atch.

Here's a fun game to play, folks - Describe the person behind "WB"... my take -

Wynter Benton is a 19-year old computer geek who has bought about 12 oz of silver in the form of "Max Keiser" coins. He fancies himself an "expert" in precious metals now and was begging daddy daily to buy a gold Eagle or Maple Leaf so he can fondle one. Some time back he came up with the idea of WB while staring at a photo-shopped pin-up he made from a head shot of Blythe and a body pose of Morgana the Kissing Bandit. He then started posting at yahoo using a dummy internet address and thought he could "scare" Blythe and prove "he was a man". It didn't work and daddy used his bowling money to buy a new generator for his RV. WB tries to fondle that, but it's just not the same.

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:38pm

Silver price comparison chart prediction /reality as of today

Being a physicist by education, I have to turn back on the charts and compare to find out deviations and reasons for them. Of course, that last one I added on the picture in green is so recent..But it is supposed to be little more detailed. But here it goes(reality is blue). (Bacground:

Perfidious Albion
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:48pm

4 _SW

insert caption here..

mespe C F
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:48pm

1.5 million to start

They ought to start with his salary,,


  1. Dan Says:
    March 24th, 2010 at 12:50 pm

    He sure messed up the state of New Jersey. Maybe he’s better at managing in the private sector.

  2. Flee Says:
    March 24th, 2010 at 2:53 pm

    Just what would he teach at Princeton? How not to govern a state 101? How to lose an election 200? Just curious.

  3. Jay Says:
    March 25th, 2010 at 11:22 pm

    Messed up NJ and messed up Goldman Sachs with involvement with LTCM and riskier asset classes; enough to be ousted by Paulson. How can anyone want Corzine for their firm is beyond me.

  4. kg Says:
    April 1st, 2010 at 8:50 am

    Could not do a worse job as govenor. As long as he is out of my life I’m a happy camper. Good riddance and please stay out of NJ!!!! Please!!!

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:48pm

I found this article a few

I found this article a few days ago. It is pretty interesting .


Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong

Financial-risk models got us in trouble before the 2008 crash, and they're almost sure to get us in trouble again

When it comes to assigning blame for the current economic doldrums, the quants who build the complicated mathematic financial risk models, and the traders who rely on them, deserve their share of the blame. [See“A Formula For Economic Calamity” in the November 2011 issue]. But what if there were a way to come up with simpler models that perfectly reflected reality? And what if we had perfect financial data to plug into them?

Incredibly, even under those utterly unrealizable conditions, we'd still get bad predictions from models.

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:52pm

LIS Caption

Will Robinson : "Danger, my ass! I have a stack of PMs!"

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:52pm

Debt As Money parts 1 and 2, full length vers

Video unavailable
Video unavailable
Nov 3, 2011 - 5:53pm

Ivars - not too shabby

Your Fourier analysis looks good, but your amplitude vector needs some work.

Nov 3, 2011 - 5:56pm

Interesting that the day ends

Interesting that the day ends chopping sideways pretty steady at Au $1,764 and Ag $34.50. Au at $1,764 is Santa's number above which volatility turns quantum, so I can see why there might be an interest in capping the price there. What might be the significance of Ag at $34.50? I have no idea.

Nov 3, 2011 - 6:11pm

Margin Call

Hi Everyone,

I recently watched "Margin Call".. it's a movie that just came out w/ Kevin Spacey, Demi Moore & it's uncanny how closely alligned it is to the real life MF Global situation. I found it online and was able to watch it for free. Anyway, just wanted to share and let you know, it's worth taking the time to check out. Cheers!


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
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5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
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5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
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