Wed, Nov 2, 2011 - 7:54pm

OK, it appears that the coast is clearing. The entire MFing Global fiasco had the potential to seriously pressure the commodity markets but...at this moment...it looks like we're going to survive.

It had the potential to get ugly. Yesterday, when we were getting the waterfall declines in the metals, I feared that another September rout was on. Silver could have dropped $5 again and gold could have dropped another $100. This would have ultimately led to more margin hikes and...well, you get the picture. Why, you ask? Simple:

1) MFing Global clients are restricted to "liquidation only".

2) This seriously disturbs the normal, fragile equilibrium of buyers vs sellers.

3) Knowing this, other paper silver holders attempt to "get ahead" of it all by selling.

4) This prompts MFing Global clients to sell.

5) This leads to more selling pressure.

6) Maybe JPM helps things along with a few, new shorts.

7) Down it goes. No buyers means no bids. Serious, cascading waterfall.

This is what I feared yesterday morning as I helplessly observed the action through my Iphone. Miraculously, however, silver and gold both stopped and reversed, right at critical support. This is very encouraging. Maybe silver is finally at a point where fundamentals are being recognized. Instead of waiting for even lower prices to develop, buyers stepped in and turned the tide. Again, this is very encouraging.

Now, by no means is this over as the MFing Global situation appears to be a rabbithole of corruption. However, the moment in time where the imbalances existed that could have crashed both silver and gold has passed. As the title of this thread states: Whew! One caveat, though. I'm going to be out and unavailable all morning again tomorrow. Yesterday marked the second straight panic-type event that has occurred while I was away from my post, the other being the selloff of 9/22. Let's just hope that tomorrow doesn't make it 3 in a row!

As mentioned above, things look encouraging. You can see it on both of these charts. IF these rallies can continue, both metals will move through their highs of last week and will be set up for further extensions of the gains. I'm still expecting $1810 in gold and $37 in silver sometime this month. A move through last week's highs will make those goals look easily attainable.


Two other things. First, a potentially fascinating interview of James Turk by Eric King. Here's a link to some text. The full audio has not yet been posted so I advise you to keep checking the link until it is:


Eric also just posted some notes from speaking with Peter Schiff today. A must read:


And I think this next item is kind of funny. Trader Dan and I have joked that we might be "brothers from another mother" in that we so often see the same chart patterns and share the same thoughts. Last weekend, I planned to write an entire column on commodity inflation, specifically cows and pigs. The weekend passed, I ran out of time and it never got written. I even still have the marked-up charts on my desk but I just haven't had the time to post them. Well, Trader Dan to the rescue! Dan has written a fabulous piece that, for all intents and purposes, states and shows most of the things I wanted to cover. Below is the link. Thanks, Dan!!


OK, that's all for now. As stated above, I won't be able to post again until after the Comex close tomorrow. Like Tuesday, though, I will be adding thoughts to the comments section of this thread if conditions warrant. Thanks again to all Turdites everywhere for making this such a special site! TF

p.s. I forgot to add this. I received this email last night. Thanks, JB. Much obliged!

Hey Turd,
My name is JB Slear, the COMEX Gold/Silver delivery boy for Jim Sinclair at www.JSmineset.com . I used to trade thru REFCO before its collapse into oblivion, none of my clients lost any of their money during its collapse. I'm certain there are a lot of people who might be scared stiff about their commodity holdings. If you feel it prudent, I would be honored to answer any questions your people might have in regards to MFG and their apparent risks. Please feel free to post this if you're ok with it .. Your people can call toll free866-443-0868 ext 0. One of us will pick up and answer any questions they have ... Happy Trades To You!!
JB Slear
CEO Fort Wealth Trading Co LLC

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 2, 2011 - 7:56pm



Nov 2, 2011 - 8:05pm


and wupty doo

Nov 2, 2011 - 8:05pm


More than meets the eye right now. I'll keep you updated.

Nov 2, 2011 - 8:10pm

Thanks Big Yellow Hatted One

Thanks for your efforts and foresight for making this site possible.....and those updates.

Avocado Lover
Nov 2, 2011 - 8:12pm


Hope so!

Nov 2, 2011 - 8:12pm

Dave from Denver on Bernank today

The Golden Truth
Armageddon was yesterday - Today we have a serious problem

Has Bernanke Lost His Mind?

I just saw this headline come across the tape: "Low interest rates benefit savers too: Bernanke." He goes on to explain that low interest rates are stimulating economic growth and savers won't get decent returns on their savings until the economy strengthens. Here's the LINK The dude lost me on that one. In fact, that has to be one of the most insanely idiotic statements I have ever heard - and everyone who heard and believed it is dumber for having done so.

One of the exercises I try to do is, when someone says something that seems stupid on the surface, I try to intellectually understand why they are making that particular statement. Let me get this straight: if I have my money in a CD earning a fixed 1%, my money will grow in value if the economy by some miracle of some other-world higher power grows? I can understand trying to sell an idea by spinning the logic, but Bernanke's reasoning there is outright retarded. I truly think the guy has lost his mind. Either that or he's treating some malady with high grade medical marijuana. Okay maybe he's not stoned because he would not be able to make that statement and keep a straight face - perhaps he takes copious amounts of prozac or xanax. Read more

Nov 2, 2011 - 8:15pm


How is the Bears reunion coming along?


Nov 2, 2011 - 8:16pm

Dan Norcini's turn...

Fallout from QE - Rising Meat Prices

The talk today is of the subtle but significant shift in the FOMC in regards to another round of Quantitative Easing or QE. It appears the formerly hawkish dissenters from this madness have been brought in to heel with the Fed perhaps ramping up expecatations that they will act in some form as conditions worsen in Europe.

Signals are still unclear and there is a lot of conflicting information swirling in the financial air which is leading to further instability and volatility in our financial markets.

I find it less than honest that those advocating another dose of financial morphine into the system are pointing to the lack of inflation as a signal that the Fed could engage in further money creation without unduly impacting prices in general. My response to this is "Bullsh_t".

Read more

Nov 2, 2011 - 8:20pm

Thanks TF

Just Thank you...for everything. You are the bomb!


Nov 2, 2011 - 8:23pm

It's called: 

It's called: M-O-P-E

Management of Perspective Economics

Ben is the Chief Mopehead...the mother of the mope.

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
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8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
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7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
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6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

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