A Very Interesting CoT

314
106
Sun, Oct 30, 2011 - 3:47pm

As we prepare for another wild and wacky week ahead, I thought that we should first re-visit and study the week that just passed. Specifically, a very interesting Commitment of Traders report.

First, the data. For the period 10/18 - 10/25, the Dec11 silver contract rose over $1, from a little under $32 to a little over $33. Not bad, I'm sure we'd all take that $1/week into infinity. But, as is often the case, there's more here than meets the eye. Namely, a significant effort by The Evil Empire to paint a false picture of silver market price action post the historic CFTC position limit ruling.

Below is an hourly chart of silver. Clearly, this can be marginalized as Turd choosing to see what Turd wants to see but, for me, the chart speaks volumes. When combined with the CoT data, the picture comes into sharp focus.

paper_10-30silvcot_0002.jpg

Let's look specifically at the period of time between the vertical lines I've drawn which block off the time period through which the latest CoT survey measures. First of all, you'll quickly notice that silver rallied sharply following the CFTC vote on 10/18, almost $1.50 in a four-hour period. Then, almost immediately after the prior reporting period ended, silver reversed and began a relatively steep decline of over $2. Instead of a continued rally post-ruling, which would have indicated to anyone with an IQ north of Forrest Gump's that JPM et al were indeed complicit in manipulating silver all these years, silver inexplicably declines from a Tuesday evening high of $32 to a Thursday morning low of under $30! Silver then begins to rally back but, by as late as 10:00 a.m. this past Tuesday, it was still only trading at $31.50. Only in the final hours before this week's CoT survey was taken did silver shoot up over $1.50 and finish the period above $33. It then rallied for the remainder of the week and closed on Friday at $35.37.

Now, let's look at the latest CoT data:

Silver COT Report - Futures

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

23,660

12,638

21,580

38,176

61,692

83,416

95,910

655

-15

1,375

-1,945

2,797

85

4,157

Traders

59

37

45

41

41

126

104

Small Speculators

 

Long

Short

Open Interest

 

23,650

11,156

107,066

 

3,624

-448

3,709

 

Note first the action of the "speculators". Large and small specs added about 4,300 longs and covered about 450 shorts. Then notice that The Evil Empire did the opposite. They decreased longs by 1,945 contracts and added about 2,800 shorts. Of course, this is "normal" silver market behavior. The banks willingly supply the fresh paper for the specs to buy. But, is there more to it than that? I think so.

1) We've frequently discussed the phenomenon of "Happy Tuesday" here. From the old blog, here's the earliest reference to the notion that silver and gold typically rise on Tuesdays as banks attempt to mask the true size of their positions by covering a few of them ahead of the weekly CoT survey.

https://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/wicked-witch-of-new-york.html

2) After the post-ruling rally on 10/18, the EE flooded the silver market with fresh paper silver. For example, on 10/19, a day that saw silver fall over $1, the total open interest rise by 2,100 contracts!

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 10/19/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

OCT 11

31.825

31.840

31.340

-

-.549

31.252

39

146

NOV 11

31.975

31.975

31.330

-

-.551

31.258

98

87

DEC 11

32.050

32.150

31.145

-

-.554

31.277

43,365

60,041

JAN 12

31.860

32.150

31.205

-

-.556

31.295

125

214

MAR 12

31.920

32.085

31.210

-

-.557

31.317

4,470

11,600

MAY 12

31.620

31.620

31.620

-

-.564

31.333

487

3,008

JLY 12

31.740

31.740

31.740

-

-.566

31.343

229

2,538

SEP 12

31.710

31.710

31.300A

-

-.562

31.343

344

1,181

DEC 12

31.610

32.095

31.470

-

-.564

31.343

570

11,118

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

-.564

31.324

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

-.568

31.281

-

752

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

-.572

31.238

-

141

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

-.576

31.187

13

2,304

DEC 13

31.200

31.200

31.010

-

-.576

31.111

34

7,882

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

-.582

30.926

-

262

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

-.586

30.836

5

1,317

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

-.596

30.581

5

190

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

-.606

30.446

5

548

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

-.606

30.221

5

27

Total

           

49,794

103,357

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 10/20/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

OCT 11

30.370

30.375

30.105

-

-.986

30.266

7

164

NOV 11

30.985

31.195

30.010

-

-.988

30.270

25

93

DEC 11

31.235

31.375

29.935

-

-.996

30.281

44,817

60,707

JAN 12

30.490

31.290

30.350

-

-.998

30.297

63

207

MAR 12

31.210

31.400

30.000

-

-.997

30.320

2,681

12,580

MAY 12

31.285

31.285

30.220

-

-.997

30.336

296

2,96

JLY 12

30.510

30.510

30.170

-

-.997

30.346

73

2,602

SEP 12

30.360

30.365

30.245

-

-.996

30.347

32

1,309

DEC 12

30.915

30.915

30.640

-

-.995

30.348

166

11,368

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

-.996

30.328

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

-.997

30.284

-

752

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

-.997

30.241

-

141

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

-1.000

30.187

-

2,312

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

-.992

30.119

6

7,908

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

-.990

29.936

-

262

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

-.988

29.848

1

1,312

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

-.988

29.593

-

185

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

-.988

29.458

-

548

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

-.988

29.233

-

27

Total

           

48,167

105,441

The following day, the 20th, saw silver virtually unchanged yet the total silver OI again rose by another 1000 contracts.

Daily Settlements for Silver Futures (PRELIMINARY)

Trade Date: 10/21/2011

Month

Open

High

Low

Last

Change

Settle

Estimated

Volume

Prior Day

Open Interest

OCT 11

30.625

30.625

30.625

-

+.907

31.173

2

18

NOV 11

30.565

31.365

30.565

-

+.912

31.182

35

94

DEC 11

30.555

31.515

30.280

-

+.912

31.193

29,055

61,377

JAN 12

30.340

31.380

30.340

-

+.912

31.209

72

200

MAR 12

30.420

31.460B

30.420

-

+.911

31.231

1,402

12,978

MAY 12

30.465

31.090B

30.340

-

+.911

31.247

195

2,972

JLY 12

-

-

-

-

+.910

31.256

160

2,635

SEP 12

-

-

-

-

+.909

31.256

13

1,329

DEC 12

30.615

31.430

30.590

-

+.904

31.252

87

11,390

JAN 13

-

-

-

-

+.904

31.232

-

1

MAR 13

-

-

-

-

+.904

31.188

-

752

MAY 13

-

-

-

-

+.904

31.145

-

141

JLY 13

-

-

-

-

+.904

31.091

-

2,312

DEC 13

-

-

-

-

+.903

31.022

-

7,912

JLY 14

-

-

-

-

+.903

30.839

-

262

DEC 14

-

-

-

-

+.894

30.742

10

1,312

JLY 15

-

-

-

-

+.894

30.487

-

185

DEC 15

-

-

-

-

+.894

30.352

10

548

JLY 16

-

-

-

-

+.894

30.127

-

27

Total

           

31,041

106,445

3) The clear, net effect of EE shorting and selling was to disrupt the immediate aftereffects of the CFTC ruling. Again, by stifling the post-ruling rally, the EE was able to make the "tape" look like the ruling had no impact, whatsoever.

4) Furthermore, by selling and shorting into the spec buying fervor that accompanied the ruling, The Forces of Darkness were able to control the ascent of silver following this decidedly bullish decision.

5) In typical "Happy Tuesday" fashion, JPM et al cover their tracks by buying during the morning of the 25th. Though silver was up almost $1.50 on the 25th, total OI rose only a miniscule 223 contracts. Clearly, the primary cause of the rally last Tuesday was EE short covering and closing of contracts.

So, what's the point, you ask? It's simply this: The Evil Empire is still in charge of the silver market and, even though they are faced with the eventual imposition of position limits, they will still manipulate the price of silver to their benefit whenever they deem necessary.

What does this mean for you? Until, the position limits mandated by the Dodd-Frank law and imposed by the CFTC are enacted, you must be wary of further, wild bouts of silver market manipulation. In the last six months alone, we've seen two, separate 30% takedowns in silver. Do not be surprised if more "interventions" occur in the near future. Until the day comes that The Evil Empire is reduced to being simply another market participant, traders of silver must remain cautious, continually guarding against, and hedging for, the next deliberate price manipulation event. TF

11:11 pm EDT UPDATE:

It's not even Monday yet and I'm already sick of this week.

In a move that absolutely no one could have seen coming <sarc on>, the Bank of Japan has apparently decided that a USDJPY of 76 was simply too much to take. Can you blame them? An economy that is based upon exports can not survive, much less prosper, with currency that is surging to 60-year highs against The Pig. This move was announced about an hour ago and the impact that WOPR has had on the thinly-traded, Sunday evening Globex has been enormous. Yuck. We'll just have to see how long it will take the PMs to recover. Ultimately, a devaluation move such as this is PM POSITIVE, not negative, but that requires actual thought and analysis, not just an algo pumped into a computer, rigged for high frequency trading.

paper_10-30pmgold.jpgpaper_10-30pmpig.jpg

Good night. TF

9:40 am EDT UPDATE:

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue/hittin the Jack/methamphetamine/oxycontin/smokin crack.

Lots and lots of nasty and strange stuff going on this morning. BoJ intervention, MF Global bankruptcy, Italian CDS exploding, stocks down, bonds up, dollar up, commodities down. It's going to be a wild week.

Here are some updated charts. For now, support is holding just fine but watch these levels closely as they will be your clue as to where we go from here.

paper_10-31amsilvh.jpgpaper_10-31amsilv.jpg

paper_10-31amgold.jpgpaper_10-31amgoldd.jpg

More later. Hang in there. TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  314 Comments

MASTERSR6 · Oct 30, 2011 - 3:50pm

First!!

1st!!!

H - original · Oct 30, 2011 - 3:59pm
108

Still the weekend... so can I put this here?

Something I put together last night -

https://www.youtube.com/embed/90l7BBXCY9s

Thanks for the post too Turd... 

Moderators, please feel free to move my video to another forum if it doesn't belong here. I was just wanting to share with folks in the run up to Halloween :)

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:04pm

Thanks Big Yellow Hatted one they call TF

cool Thats a lot to digest numbers wise. Appreciate you broke it down and made it clearer.

Xty...I see you and I still share the same dreaded (hoped for at times ) "last post syndrome".

I actually like it at times because it means we get a new update as a consequence. Nice trade off!

even steven · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:04pm

silver - the schizoid metal

hmmmm... things that you may have already heard, but few that may be of interest...

Ross Beaty: Silver the Schizoid Metal
ScottJ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:05pm

Hello to the universe...

Hello to the universe...

I have been in some interesting places in the last week...

More to be told soon, or so I think at least ;)

We are all about to journey into something very beautiful.

Hold on tight, the roller coaster has its ups and downs, but is long awaited and long deserved by humanity.

The days of our lower consciousness are over. From evermore we are evolving at an accelerating pace. Let us all experience life together, for what are the times if we can not do it together...

More soon, depending on where the frequencies cross...

https://thehardrightedge.com for my spiritual revolution blog.

Those who are drawn to what I am talking about, let us continue the conversation here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2820/welcome

-

Everything is going to be alright. If what I see is true, then we are in for quite a ride. Become aware of everything and the black holes of your consciousness will start to fade away.

-

Scott J

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:10pm

Scott

When you get a chance. Could you please repost that piece you did a while back on the false market concept (lack of a better term) when we seemed to be in the thick of that algo phase at one time?

I think you know what piece that was. (and i recall a nice silver piece you did also) I forgot to book mark them and wanted to go back and do so after but got side tracked with what gathered elsewhere for here.

That was some interesting stuff you discussed and I'd like you to give us your takes on some of these market events as they unravel. You have some interesting takes on the market at times.

Thanksyes

even steven · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:15pm

something from main stream media

it is few days old and we may have seen it, but it is worth spending few minutes during this rainy week-end...

Video unavailable
¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:28pm

Oh...what a surprise! Didn't see that coming did we?

Share

U.S. Planning Troop Buildup in Gulf After Exit From Iraq Andrea Bruce for The New York Times

United States soldiers performed a closing ceremony on Oct. 20 for a base in Tikrit, now under the control of Iraqi forces.

By THOM SHANKER and STEVEN LEE MYERS
Published: October 29, 2011

MacDILL AIR FORCE BASE, Fla. — The Obama administration plans to bolster the American military presence in the Persian Gulf after it withdraws the remaining troops from Iraq this year, according to officials and diplomats. That repositioning could include new combat forces in Kuwait able to respond to a collapse of security in Iraq or a military confrontation with Iran.

The plans, under discussion for months, gained new urgency after President Obama’s announcement this month that the last American soldiers would be brought home from Iraq by the end of December. Ending the eight-year war was a central pledge of his presidential campaign, but American military officers and diplomats, as well as officials of several countries in the region, worry that the withdrawal could leave instability or worse in its wake.

After unsuccessfully pressing both the Obama administration and the Iraqi government to permit as many as 20,000 American troops to remain in Iraq beyond 2011, the Pentagon is now drawing up an alternative.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/30/world/middleeast/united-states-plans-...

treefrog · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:32pm

O.T. GOD'S MESSAGE FOR SOCIALISTS

‎"Why would God, with just ten things to tell Moses, choose, as one of them, jealousy about the things the man next door has? And yet think about how important to the well-being of a community this commandment is. If you want a donkey, if you want a meal, if you want an employee, don't complain about what other people have, go get your own. The tenth commandment sends a message to collectivists, to people who believe wealth is best obtained by redistribution. And the message is clear and concise: Go to hell."

....P.J. O'rourke

ScottJ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:37pm

The more you interact the

The more you interact the more "black holes" go away. Keep interacting!

ScottJ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:46pm

The Pond is Settling...

We all have our alter egos within those we attract around us. They all help build our frequencies and complete our own harmonies. The words we speak are nothing more than vibrational frequencies manifesting reality. Fill your own black holes in your own consciousness.

Respect others and you will respect yourself.

It is a process for us to tear down before we can see what we have in front of us.

The water is settling.... we will be able to see everything as it is with no interference soon enough.

For more discussion about this,

Please talk amongst one another on the forum topic:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2820/welcome

-

The next 13 days may be mystical. I will let you know when I am able to know. Send good vibes and good vibes will return.

Drop your anger and your divide and conquer mentality. It is a primitive consciousness trait. Do not disrespect others though, we are all feeding off one another. The more we divide ourselves the more we interfere with the harmony of the universe. Everything has meaning.

Awareness is everything.

-

Scott J

Assn92me · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:48pm

Thanks

For that video even steven....!yes

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 4:58pm

Crop circles

pretty cool pics

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:00pm

It's almost hard to believe this guy is still in office...

Berlusconi Defiant as EU’s Focus Shifts to Italy By Patrick Donahue and Armorel Kenna - Oct 30, 2011 12:35 PM ET

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he alone can deliver the country’s promised deficit cuts as European leaders turn their attention to his government’s ability to help contain the debt crisis.

In an interview published in Corriere della Sera today, Berlusconi ruled out early elections and said the current legislature in Rome will last until 2013. He said the European Central Bank’s support will only be maintained if his government follows through on measures to rein in debt and promote growth.

“Only I and my government can achieve this reform program for 18 months, which is why there is no way for me to stand aside,” the Italian leader said in the interview.

The European Union’s latest package of measures failed to stem a rise in Italian borrowing costs, with an Oct. 28 bond sale sending yields to a euro-era record and denting the...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-30/berlusconi-defiant-as-europe-s...

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:10pm

random

I didn't see Sasha Tirebiter in there....good thing!

The Addams Family (1964) S01E01 - Train Crash Scene
¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:14pm

The pig in the bathwater... / Who is the bird in the cage?

Ukraine between Russia and EU

Pitch Ukraine between Russia and EU

Vladimir Kazanevsky

Ukraine have to choice the way of integration to Russia or to EU .

30 Oct 2011

cpnscarlet · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:16pm

@treefrog - thanks for the

@treefrog - thanks for the P.J. O'Rourke quote. I hope the Chomskyites and other radicals will take it to heart, since that's what all the commie pinkos like him are thirsting for - bigger governments to simple TAKE from the people they think have "too much" and give it to the people they think have "too little". And of course, Noam dreams he will be one of the commissars making those calls.

And just because some of us are more than ready to bad-mouth a guy like Noam doesn't automatically make him some f**king political martyr. Give us our due. Many here have been around the block a few times and know the difference between some wise discernment of the evils in the status quo, and some left-wing nut job whose tenure was granted way too soon and for all the wrong reasons.

When you spent time in high school listening to kids who 1) dived off cargo boats to get out of China and into Hong Kong, 2) lied about their religion to get out of Russia, 3) crawled through tunnels and some sewers to get out of the Ukraine, and 4) left every possession they had so they could turn a one-day visa into a train ride out of Poland, collectivists like Chomsky (and particularly commies like him) get little traction with me even if they have one or two "correct" things to say every decade or two. You like Chomsky? You're an A-Class sucker. Why not just do what he wants and toss your stack out to the OWS crowd right now.

RaRaRasputin · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:16pm

Seen this before but don't know if you guys have ...

RSA ANIMATE: Crises of Capitalism

Interesting stuff - let me know what you think

RaRa

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:18pm

No question about it...

An Overdose of Violence

Vladimir Kazanevsky

There is too much violence in the modern world

23 Jun 2011

An Overdose of Violence

cpnscarlet · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:18pm

@DPH - Gomez. Not the exact

@DPH - Gomez. Not the exact role model for the toy train crowd, but still a hoot. If I started blowing up things, I'm sure Sasha would never show her face again in the train room. Hmmmm. Not a bad idea at that.... 

WheelerSilver · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:21pm

Lets Go Metals!

Can't wait for the Asian markets to open. Lets see some more green on that chart folks! Lets go metals!

_______________________

http:www.wheelersilver.com

~Handmade Quality Bullion~

I Run Bartertown · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:26pm

Scott

With all due respect, if you recited some of your recent posts to a judge, they'd likely commit you short-term, at least for a diagnosis.

I'm not saying that you're wearing a sweatsuit and brand new Nike shoes, stirring a bowl of pudding, but I will say I'm a bit concerned.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven%27s_Gate_(religious_group)

"Authorities found the dead lying neatly in their own bunk beds, faces and torsos covered by a square, purple cloth. Each member carried a five dollar bill and three quarters in their pockets. All 39 were dressed in identical black shirts and sweat pants, brand new black-and-white Nike Windrunner athletic shoes, and armband patches reading "Heaven's Gate Away Team""

Remember, man, what's real is tangible and in front of you. Magic can't stop traffic if one walks into the street, etc...Eyes on the stars are OK, but keep those feet firmly on the real-life terra firma.

cpnscarlet · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:38pm

I forgot something

I left out something from my last post about Chomsky -

</rant off/>

NW VIEW · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:49pm

@ I Run Bartertown

Thanks for the insightful post above. Heavens Gate, Jim Jones and many others think they have found to key into the next world and the future life but it only produces DEATH. These cults think they have a vehicle to transport them to their future bliss but moments after death, they find out they were on the wrong ship. 

It is not that these seekers are not sincere but sincerity is not truth. This type of seeking really needs to be on a forum as provided. JMO

SilverDog · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:50pm

Awesome Ron Paul Pumpkin

 @H - original - that pumpkin artwork took my breath away - was that you making that?

That was one of those video's that just forces a big wide smile on a tired old face. :-)

¤ · Oct 30, 2011 - 5:56pm
bachis RaRaRasputin · Oct 30, 2011 - 6:11pm

@rara I like the format of

@rara

I like the format of the video but that guy has very little knowledge of what capatalism is.

Dr G · Oct 30, 2011 - 6:20pm

@Scott, unfortunately your

@Scott, unfortunately your recent posts are full of esoteric jibberish that hold zero value. I don't know why you've had this change, but it has reached the tippIng point for me. Hope all is well with you, and I mean that I'm the most honest way possible. At the minimum you are now detracting from real and valid matters at hand. Just my thoughts. I'll add that for most posters I probably wouldn't care and would just place them on ignore, but you are such a bright and young mind that your newer postings have caught me very off-guard.

· Oct 30, 2011 - 6:21pm

@RaRa re: RSA Animation

Great find. There is a whole series of these talks illustrated in 'real time' by a very skilled illustrator. Another I really liked:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZFcDGpL4U

Check out their YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/user/theRSAorg

ScottJ, you might like this one: 21st century enlightenment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC7ANGMy0yo

bernard · Oct 30, 2011 - 6:32pm

anonymous taking on the bankers?

https://anonymous.me check it out guys, direct mentions of Bart Chilton and the PM price suppression scheme..

Anonymous - Entropy is Inevitable

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