Long Day. Turd Tired.

543
Thu, Oct 27, 2011 - 10:02pm

Wow! This has sure been a crazy week. One day to go and then we can all take a couple of days off.

Sorry that this is only another brief update but it's been a long day and I have to leave shortly to go pick up my little ballerina.

First of all, here are updated POSX charts. That picture I posted last night of the dude balancing on his hands on the edge of a cliff sure seemed to be a good metaphor, didn't it? The Pig broke 76 and it fell into the abyss. For now, it looks like it should catch a few bids around 75 and that may slow the fall temporarily. However, as you can plainly see on the charts below, it sure looks like its headed back to 74.

What would stop it at 74, you ask? Just wait and see. Like magic, just when The Pig looks like it's on its death bed, the headlines will turn. The euro will sink and the dollar will rally.

Until then, the metals look to continue higher. Gold will likely begin to encounter some resistance around 1760-65 and silver will slow near 37. Having come this far, this fast, some profit-taking is to be expected. I still think, though, that gold has farther to go in this rally. Ultimately, 1840 is not out of the picture. Silver, too, looks strong. Through 37 and we'll begin to look for a short-term top somewhere between 38 and 39.

OK, gotta go. I promise you a more comprehensive update in the morning. TF

NOON EDT UPDATE:

As predicted above, the PMs are seeing some profit-taking today. Short-term traders who've made $100 in gold and $4 in silver this week are reluctant to hold over the weekend. This is perfectly natural. The metals may decline a little further into the close but I'd expect a rally on the Globex. Keep in mind that the Commitment of Traders survey numbers are released at 2:30 and those numbers are basis last Tuesday. Well, most of this rally has come post-Tuesday so I'd expect both the gold and silver reports to remain quite bullish. Therefore, let's look for silver finish the Globex session somewhere around $35 if not a little above. Gold will likely finish somewhere in the 1740s. I'll try to have more later. TF

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  543 Comments

Jack
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:05pm

Long Day

As always, thanks Turd.

Be careful with the pirohuettes!

FleetFeet
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:10pm

Good sleep

I will sleep well tonight because there's a lot less red in my accounts. Hope this holds for all you!

Thanks, TF.

lilbromarky1
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:11pm

Nice call on the USDX swan

Nice call on the USDX swan dive into a reverse double half pike into the abyss

clueless one
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:19pm

ahhh...the days of ballet

takes me back...well, the picking the little one up anyway. I personally never had the legs for it...lol.

"What would stop it at 74, you ask? Just wait and see. Like magic, just when The Pig looks like it's on its death bed, the headlines will turn. The euro will sink and the dollar will rally".

Since I don't trade, at all, I made it a point today to jot down some ideas...sort of a "if I were to trade" scenario.

The EUR/USD weekly is at the top of the channel...with a loooooong way to fall. It's funny how a few weeks ago, it was all about what the EU was going to do about the issue, as the EUR/USD dropped. Now, after the hardcore run to the top of the channel, after the announcement of the "deal", it seems like the $DXY has put a bottom in. Hmmm....seeing something here. Dunno what it is, but I had the afore mentioned charts up today...and while watching them, also had SPY up, Silver/Gold/WTI as well...all on one minute ranges.

Funny how the headlines always seem to peak when each and every chart is at support or resistance. Uncanny, I tell ya. Just so strange how you can pick the channels, go short or long at certain times, and be able to get out when the action dies down at S/R levels. It looks like fun...but I'll stack the phyz, and leave the hijinx to you good willed folks with patience!

Thanks Turd, for all you do!

C1

sooner
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:25pm

Hey all, I have to write a

Hey all,

I have to write a ten page essay (on a return to a gold standard...)

can any of you nice folks point me to some credible book sources or articles to SUPPORT this viewpoint? (I tried to explain to my teacher that a Return to a GS goes against Economic dogma, but she wants "credible" sources...)

I'm going to use Rickards' "Currency Wars" as one of the ten i need.

thanks in advance you guys

Shill
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:34pm

From the prior thread.

From the prior thread. Maryann its so good to see you post, I hope all is well with you and yours.

I consider you the Forum Nurse :)

be well

Turdle GG
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:37pm

sooner

I'm not a scholar in the area, but I've heard good things about Murray Rothbard

https://www.amazon.com/What-Government-Money-Percent-Dollar/dp/0945466447/ref=pd_sim_b_3

(you'll probably learn most of the book's points by reading the Customer Reviews, if you need a short-cut...)

Shill
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:42pm
MaryannShill
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:43pm

I have purpose...thanks Shill

Now if we can just nurse my miners back to health.....

Hope everyone has a good evening and good day tomorrow!

JimmyTheHand
Oct 27, 2011 - 10:44pm

Bravo!

Excellent call on Miss Piggie Turd! I have a question (or three) I want to pose to you and all Turdites. Where did all the money come from for this rally? I have read that US bonds and treasuries were cashed in at record setting paces, but if that was done by Euro nations to recapitalize their banks then where did the money come from? Funds that folks have been sitting on all this time? Does this mean the death of the bond market? I had a heck of a good time watching silver today!!!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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