Long Day. Turd Tired.

Thu, Oct 27, 2011 - 10:02pm

 Wow! This has sure been a crazy week. One day to go and then we can all take a couple of days off.

Sorry that this is only another brief update but it's been a long day and I have to leave shortly to go pick up my little ballerina.

First of all, here are updated POSX charts. That picture I posted last night of the dude balancing on his hands on the edge of a cliff sure seemed to be a good metaphor, didn't it? The Pig broke 76 and it fell into the abyss. For now, it looks like it should catch a few bids around 75 and that may slow the fall temporarily. However, as you can plainly see on the charts below, it sure looks like its headed back to 74.


What would stop it at 74, you ask? Just wait and see. Like magic, just when The Pig looks like it's on its death bed, the headlines will turn. The euro will sink and the dollar will rally.

Until then, the metals look to continue higher. Gold will likely begin to encounter some resistance around 1760-65 and silver will slow near 37. Having come this far, this fast, some profit-taking is to be expected. I still think, though, that gold has farther to go in this rally. Ultimately, 1840 is not out of the picture. Silver, too, looks strong. Through 37 and we'll begin to look for a short-term top somewhere between 38 and 39.


OK, gotta go. I promise you a more comprehensive update in the morning. TF


As predicted above, the PMs are seeing some profit-taking today. Short-term traders who've made $100 in gold and $4 in silver this week are reluctant to hold over the weekend. This is perfectly natural. The metals may decline a little further into the close but I'd expect a rally on the Globex. Keep in mind that the Commitment of Traders survey numbers are released at 2:30 and those numbers are basis last Tuesday. Well, most of this rally has come post-Tuesday so I'd expect both the gold and silver reports to remain quite bullish. Therefore, let's look for silver finish the Globex session somewhere around $35 if not a little above. Gold will likely finish somewhere in the 1740s. I'll try to have more later. TF


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 179


Jack · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:05pm

Long Day

As always, thanks Turd.

Be careful with the pirohuettes!

FleetFeet · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:10pm

Good sleep

I will sleep well tonight because there's a lot less red in my accounts. Hope this holds for all you!

Thanks, TF.

lilbromarky1 · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:11pm

Nice call on the USDX swan

Nice call on the USDX swan dive into a reverse double half pike into the abyss

clueless one · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:19pm

ahhh...the days of ballet

takes me back...well, the picking the little one up anyway. I personally never had the legs for it...lol.

"What would stop it at 74, you ask? Just wait and see. Like magic, just when The Pig looks like it's on its death bed, the headlines will turn. The euro will sink and the dollar will rally".

Since I don't trade, at all, I made it a point today to jot down some ideas...sort of a "if I were to trade" scenario.

The EUR/USD weekly is at the top of the channel...with a loooooong way to fall. It's funny how a few weeks ago, it was all about what the EU was going to do about the issue, as the EUR/USD dropped. Now, after the hardcore run to the top of the channel, after the announcement of the "deal", it seems like the $DXY has put a bottom in. Hmmm....seeing something here. Dunno what it is, but I had the afore mentioned charts up today...and while watching them, also had SPY up, Silver/Gold/WTI as well...all on one minute ranges.

Funny how the headlines always seem to peak when each and every chart is at support or resistance. Uncanny, I tell ya. Just so strange how you can pick the channels, go short or long at certain times, and be able to get out when the action dies down at S/R levels. It looks like fun...but I'll stack the phyz, and leave the hijinx to you good willed folks with patience!

Thanks Turd, for all you do!


sooner · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:25pm

Hey all, I have to write a

Hey all,

I have to write a ten page essay (on a return to a gold standard...)

can any of you nice folks point me to some credible book sources or articles to SUPPORT this viewpoint? (I tried to explain to my teacher that a Return to a GS goes against Economic dogma, but she wants "credible" sources...)

I'm going to use Rickards' "Currency Wars" as one of the ten i need.

thanks in advance you guys

Shill · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:34pm

From the prior thread.

From the prior thread. Maryann its so good to see you post, I hope all is well with you and yours.

I consider you the Forum Nurse :)

 be well

Turdle GG · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:37pm


I'm not a scholar in the area, but I've heard good things about Murray Rothbard


(you'll probably learn most of the book's points by reading the Customer Reviews, if you need a short-cut...)

Shill · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:42pm
Maryann Shill · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:43pm

I have purpose...thanks Shill

Now if we can just nurse my miners back to health.....smileysmiley

Hope everyone has a good evening and good day tomorrow!

JimmyTheHand · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:44pm


Excellent call on Miss Piggie Turd! I have a question (or three) I want to pose to you and all Turdites. Where did all the money come from for this rally? I have read that US bonds and treasuries were cashed in at record setting paces, but if that was done by Euro nations to recapitalize their banks then where did the money come from? Funds that folks have been sitting on all this time? Does this mean the death of the bond market? I had a heck of a good time watching silver today!!!

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:44pm

Thanks Big T

 Through rain or shine or yawns of night and your still there doing what you do.

redwood · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:46pm

Thanks Turd, have a good

Thanks Turd, have a good night.

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:47pm

Sooner / Greenspan on FoxTV via zerohedge.com

Stunner: Gold Standard Fully Supported By... Alan Greenspan!? Tyler Durden's picture Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2011 12:58 -0400

You read that right. After such establishment "luminaries" as World Bank president Robert Zoellick, Warren Buffett's father Howard, Jim Grant, and, most recently, Kansas Fed president Thomas Hoenig, all voiced their support for a return to a gold standard, the most recent addition to the motley group of contrite voodoo shamans is none other than the man...


¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:50pm

Here you go TF

Video unavailable
backseatdriver · Oct 27, 2011 - 10:53pm


Three of the best books I have ever read that will shed an incredible amount of light on your situation:

The Creature from Jekyll Island-G Edward Griffin

The History and Evolution of our Currency-Ralph Foster

The Case for a 100 percent Gold Dollar-Murray Rothbard

May I also suggest scouring Lew Rockwell's site and the Austrian Economics mises site.

These two sites will give you enough ammunition to Ace your essay paper and make even Paul Krugman high tail it out of any higher learning lecture hall.

Hope this helped a little.




SilverFocker · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:01pm

Have a good rest

The next two weeks are going full retard..........Again.

· Oct 27, 2011 - 11:02pm


Free download on google books. "A History of the Precious Metals" by Alexander Del Mar and his other book History of Monetary Systems.


I think Mike Malones book might be good. I haven't read it but he is good at putting a cohesive arguement together for people new to the precious metals. 

You could also listen to King World News and quote any of those millionaires as good sources. 

Rickards book sounds awesome. Think I am gonna get me a copy. I've been saying all along. WW3 will be an all out attack on the dollar. And I think Argentina just joined in on the game yesterday. Woo weee

Bay of Pigs · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:05pm

Freedom From the FED

I emailed back and forth a few years ago with Prof. Rozeff after I read some of his essays at Lew Rockwell's site. He wasn't a big fan of buying gold back then. Not sure what he thinks now, but he's pretty clear about the FED.

"Central banks exist to inflate paper currencies. That is their mission. That is their reason for being. If the currency in use in a country were gold, a central bank could not inflate. The supply of gold currency would be subject to market forces. It could not be inflated at the will of central bankers. Since neither banks nor the government want to be subject to market forces, they do not want the currency to be gold."


"Now that the FED exists, it has another major reason for its existence, which is to preserve itself and expand its own powers. It now exists, not only to serve banks and the government, but to serve itself. This means to serve its membership, staff and bureaucracy. It will strive to enhance its jurisdiction among the competing regulatory agencies of government."


Michael S. Rozeff [msroz[at]buffalo[dot]edu (send him mail)] is a retired Professor of Finance living in East Amherst, New York. He is the author of the free e-book Essays on American Empire: Liberty vs. Domination and the free e-book The U.S. Constitution and Money: Corruption and Decline.

backseatdriver · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:07pm

Perfect BOP

Nice BOP. Sometimes I go to men's breakfast with my dads friends and throw out random comments like "money is created only when loans are made". Most of the time there is always a long awkward pause. But, I always suck them back in because of the silver and gold coins I bring. It is actually very fun to see peoples faces light up when they hold real money. ;) 

Everyone should stick an ASE in their pocket as a conversation starter. It really is amazing some of the conversations you can get into.


Shill · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:09pm

Now if we can just nurse my

Now if we can just nurse my miners back to health.....

First off great post Turd thank you.

Second, Maryann you hold those miners, and buy more if you can, As this time next year when the world is really going to a hell hole in a hand basket, and everyone shuns 1% T bond rates and piles into Gold and Silver and its relate shares, you will be one very happy Lady, guaranteed.

Nothing has changed, all were doing is printing money. The global economy is a joke.

Many more will see this real soon.

Enjoy your evening Maryann

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:09pm
cpnscarlet · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:10pm

EUR has room - let the $$ fall

It's all about illusion, MOPE, keeping CDSs from paying out... In this context, the dollar can fall some more without the world collapsing. But TPTB allowing the EUR to rise to 1.45 or even 1.47 will calm nerves and convince the sheep that this "deal" is good and true and Greece will now be prosperous like Germany. At 1.47, the headlines will turn to how well the Christmas season in the US is playing out (even if it isn't) and then the $ will start to look better and recover from a low of 72 back to 76. By this time, Au may very well be near 2000 by the end of December, but Ivars 1850 is about as good. Ag? I have no idea and your guess is as good as mine, but it seems there are as many forces pulling up as down. So let's defer to Ivars again and say that we'll march sideways until early 2012. Then...then...then... to the moon?

DISCLAIMER: I'm not a financial analyst, but I do look like one.

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:12pm

Todays PM action >>> Another Brick In The Wall

Pink Floyd - Another Brick In The Wall(Live)
Shill · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:18pm

Good post CPN. Of course its

Good post CPN.

Of course its a joke, they masked the possible CDS implosion by adding the word
" Voluntary Haircut, not mandatory ".

I say Really? no shit, and you think I am that dumb and ignorant to believe that?

Well maybe that's what they want us to believe, this is a global scam, and as per usual the tax payers will foot the bill, and the fat cats will continue getting fatter.

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:21pm

US companies seek China mining partnerships

US energy companies seek partnerships with nation's coal firms

Updated: 2011-10-28 08:04

By Du Juan (China Daily)

BEIJING - US-based companies are looking for opportunities to build cooperative relationships with the Chinese mining industry by providing machinery, safety equipment and clean coal technology, aiming to open the market further.

A delegation of US-based energy companies, including Peabody Energy Corp, Kress Corp, Jupiter Oxygen Corp and Caterpillar Global Mining Greater China and Korea, a division of Caterpillar Inc, led by US Commerce Department officials, came to China in late October to seek partnerships with Chinese businesses.

"US companies on this trade mission represent some of the latest and most innovative technologies in the coal mining sector," said Suresh Kumar, assistant commerce secretary for trade promotion and director-general of the US Foreign Commercial Service, at the International Coal Summit 2011 on Thursday in Beijing.

"The best selling is not only about the products" but also the needs of customers, said Kumar. "Safety equipment is what the Chinese mining industry needs, and the US has the best safety record in the sector."

He said that the US companies are also interested in offering services to increase mining-sector production efficiency and clean coal technology.

According to the China National Coal Association (CNCA), the domestic market for coal machinery will be worth about $16 billion in 2011, growing to $22 billion by 2013...


cpnscarlet · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:22pm

Before I shut the 'puter down


The "Sasha for Mascot" campaign is not going well. I have five H/T but only one firm "yes" vote. Please go to the "Sasha for Mascot" topic on the "Everything Else" forum and help this pretty young girl realize her life's dream of becoming the Turdville Mascot. It's in your hands, friends.

(Paid for by the Tirebiter for Political Solutions Committee. All Rights Reversed.)

¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:24pm

A much larger housing bubble about to pop?

Turning point in housing market looms

Updated: 2011-10-27 22:04


BEIJING - When long-awaited housing price cuts finally came to the Chinese market, the immediate response was not a warm welcome. Instead, media reports have featured protests from homeowners in cities where prices dropped right after they made purchases.

Hundreds of homeowners stormed into the sales office of a property project developed by the Longfor Company in Shanghai last week to demand compensation, as prices have dropped by as much as 30 percent since they signed their purchase contracts.

The protests followed a promotional policy instituted by the developer starting October 15. The policy offers buyers a total discount of 300,000 yuan ($47,200) if the owner spends 20,000 yuan on a membership at a designated website. This policy could bring down the average price per square meter by 20 to 30 percent.

A woman surnamed Kong who bought a house before the discount was created was irritated.

"My house is to be delivered in March and I haven't even gotten the key yet. But its price has already dropped," she said.

Similar episodes have been reported in the cities of Beijing and Hangzhou, where housing developers, pressed by a financial crunch and a sales slump, have moved to spur sales.

While the price drops have sparked disputes among people who have already purchased their homes, many see it as a sign that China's housing bubble will...


¤ · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:32pm

India's Diwali gold buying 'may be modest'

India's Diwali gold buying 'may be modest'

India is the world's biggest importer and consumer of gold

MUMBAI — High prices are likely to deter Indians from heavy gold buying this week during the Hindu festival of Diwali, normally an auspicious time to splurge on the metal, experts say.

Gold demand is expected to be moderate, they said, as the country's middle-class -- struggling to cope with high inflation and rising fuel and food prices -- may not have enough spare cash or savings to buy the yellow metal.

Gold jewellery showrooms around Mumbai's Zaveri Bazaar, which was hit by a deadly bomb attack in July, have remained half-empty during the festive season.

India is the world's biggest importer and consumer of gold, with the country accounting for over a third of global demand.

On top of that the yellow metal is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, which in India is approaching double digits.

But with rising costs, Indians have...


tmosley · Oct 27, 2011 - 11:36pm

This week sucked.  It looks

This week sucked. It looks like the likelihood of a COMEX collapse has evaporated for the year, as higher prices will allow them access to more off of the physical market. As such, I must lower the likelihood of a COMEX implosion by the end of the year from 75% likelihood to something more like 25-50%.

People should be rooting for LOWER spot prices, as that will bring about the quickest end to the COMEX and the Cartel. Higher spot prices only perpetuate their existence, and prevent the world from realizing that there is 1/3rd as much silver as gold on the surface of the Earth, and that even if 100% of silver production went into stockpiling, it would be 5 years before they reached parity. And that is excluding any increase in industrial demand (or rather, reducing total demand to zero!). If industrial demand continues as it is, then it is some 6-7 years before they reach parity, and that is with zero investment demand! If demand stays at current levels, stockpiles will NEVER increase, at least not without a truly massive increase in price, and even then, it will be YEARS before new production comes online.

Invest in paper at your own risk. Invest in physical for your future.

Chibster · Oct 28, 2011 - 12:23am

Merkel bikini dance video

Thank you Mr. Turd for all the hard work. Hoping for gold to break 1800 again.

What I don't understand is why the news media calls the Greek bonds a "50% haircut" when in fact anyone owning a bond that defaults should get a 100% haircut (BALD). It's another stealth Credit Default Swap rewarding the too big to fail banks with some big money they don't deserve and dumping half of the banks' debt on the taxpayer imho.

While you relax you can enjoy this Merkel bikini dance video

Video unavailable
Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/17

12/17 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Manu.
12/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
12/19 8:30 ET Existing Home Sales
12/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/21 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/21 10:00 ET Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core Inflation

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes