Fast Market = Fast Update

Thu, Oct 27, 2011 - 10:39am

No time for dillydallying today. Things are rolling so let's get right to it.

Let's start with our two base commodities as the PMs are definitely drawing some strength from them. As I type, Dec11 crude is up $2.41 at $92.61. DrC is charging higher again, too.

These two have given a boost to silver which is finally trading back above $34.

Gold is lagging just a bit but the chart suggests that it won't be lagging much longer.

That's all for now. I'll have a more detailed update after the close. TF

1:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As this epic drop in the POSX continues, look for even more downside tomorrow. As noted in the post from later yesterday, once 76 gave way, The Pig looked to fall into the abyss. As you can see on the chart below, 74 looks likely as a short-term bottom.

Dropping to 74 tomorrow or next week would likely be the impetus for gold at 1780 and silver at 37. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 27, 2011 - 8:25pm

The Wilting €uro Garden

The Wilting €uro Garden

Jean Gouders

More and more countries are heading towards the "danger zone

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:24pm

Nickel vs. palladium


this particular version of energy generation uses nickel and hydrogen gas. The actual amount of nickel needed is trivial (some nickel is converted into copper), so this really should not have an effect of nickel prices, other than the fact that some people who don't really know the details might think that this should be positive for nickel. Maybe providers of hydrogen gas might be impacted. But I think the main story would be a marked lessening for the need for oil in the not too distant future.

Lot's of debate about this being a scam or real, but the most recent test, done earlier this month, seemed to be positive. Supposedly the test tomorrow is going to be done under the guidance of a potential customer for the technology.

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:23pm

The European Knot

Pitch European mythical figures

Jean Gouders

Have the european leaders created a new myth?

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:20pm

Too Old Fashioned I Guess

I must be the Neanderthal here. When the PMs come in the mail, one of my wives will sometimes sign for it and hand it to me with her usual greeting - "Here is more gold and silver for the treasury of your kingdom, my lord and master."

I take it that doesn't happen with some of you guys. Oh yeah, and when there's no one else around to answer the door, one of the concubines gets it. Of course, they don't say anything since they're not allowed to speak to me directly - they can only send messages through one of the wives. Maybe you guys should let one of yours do that.

Santa's Elf
Oct 27, 2011 - 8:18pm

Coin Shop Update

Stopped by my regular dealer (yes, I find I need regular hits to keep me smiling). Anyway, first time ever he's been out of rounds. Two tubes of Silver Eagles left and no one is selling. I wonder why (sarc on). On the other hand, he's had plenty of gold sellers and his gold inventory is bulging. I can't get myself to buy at 50:1 ratios though. As of Nov 1, he's upping round premiums .50, as Sunshine Mint just upped their wholesaler prices.

I recognize this is only one dealer and would love to know if it's indicative of a trend experienced by the rest of the forum.

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:15pm

Quants & mathematical models for banks...

Black Swan author Nassim Taleb encounters a quant and sets about educating him.

Nassim Taleb educates a quant
UncleFesterGreen Lantern
Oct 27, 2011 - 8:13pm

Green Lantern

One minor point..."They do not force people to accept money. " Actually they do, its called legal tender laws.


Oct 27, 2011 - 8:11pm

Disturbed, disillusioned and ashamed: Those aren’t emotions...

Goldmanite Quant Derman Slams Wall Street’s Hypocrisies: Books By James Pressley - Oct 27, 2011 7:00 PM ETThu Oct 27 23:00:00 GMT 2011

Disturbed, disillusioned and ashamed: Those aren’t emotions you expect a Wall Street quant to express when asked why taxpayers were obliged to bail out wealthy bankers.

"Models Behaving Badly"

Unless, of course, the quant is Emanuel Derman, a particle physicist and former head of quantitative finance at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)

“I am ashamed at the hypocrisies of the system,” Derman writes in “Models.Behaving.Badly,” an erudite yet pleasantly readable exploration of why financial models failed during the U.S. mortgage meltdown and why modelers must learn to use them more wisely.

“We were told not to expect reward without risk, gain without the possibility of loss,” he says in disgust. “Now we have been forced to accept crony capitalism, private profits and socialized losses, and corporate welfare.”

Unlike many quants, Derman says he wasn’t surprised that models failed in 2007, as events predicted to happen “once in 10,000 years happened every day for three days,” as one strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) put it. The breakdown, Derman argues, flows from a misunderstanding of the difference between models and theories.

Theories are attempts to uncover the hidden principles underpinning the world around us, as Albert Einstein did with his theory of relativity. Models, says Derman, are metaphors --analogies that describe one thing relative to another. You can’t have a grand unified theory of securities, he says, because...

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:08pm

The only package my wife

The only package my wife likes to see is this:

Classic Movie Line #34




After a good trading week.

Oct 27, 2011 - 8:00pm


Pretty funny. At least your honest about it like some of the others guys said earlier.

I remember those days when I was married but it had nothing to do with silver.

Now the Au and Ag is all mine, mine, mine...

Bugs Bunny and Daffy Duck the Happy Miser Ali Baba Bunny

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5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
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5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
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5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
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5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
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5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
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5/12 8:30 ET CPI
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5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
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5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

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Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
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4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
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4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
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3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
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Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
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3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

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