Fast Market = Fast Update

Thu, Oct 27, 2011 - 10:39am

No time for dillydallying today. Things are rolling so let's get right to it.

Let's start with our two base commodities as the PMs are definitely drawing some strength from them. As I type, Dec11 crude is up $2.41 at $92.61. DrC is charging higher again, too.

These two have given a boost to silver which is finally trading back above $34.

Gold is lagging just a bit but the chart suggests that it won't be lagging much longer.

That's all for now. I'll have a more detailed update after the close. TF

1:10 pm EDT UPDATE:

As this epic drop in the POSX continues, look for even more downside tomorrow. As noted in the post from later yesterday, once 76 gave way, The Pig looked to fall into the abyss. As you can see on the chart below, 74 looks likely as a short-term bottom.

Dropping to 74 tomorrow or next week would likely be the impetus for gold at 1780 and silver at 37. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Tom L
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:35pm


I have TBT as well. Calls I bought for $0.13 at $21.20 are now $0.15 at $22.67. Implied volatility has fallen off a cliff with the VIX and so while we're right, the market still refuses to give up any money.

I'm getting really fucking tired of this. HL and SVM calls are up nicely and NGD is up against tough resistance in the face of the earnings rpt. on 10.31.


Oct 27, 2011 - 1:36pm

SPY Puts --- anyone buying today?

Are we over bought?

Seems like lipstick on those PIIGS....what has changed?


cpnscarlet Tom L
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:37pm

Shill, Tom L

Do you think this is a good time to go long VIX (VXX)?

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:38pm

Gift wrapped grenade from scumball reuters

It's is just so easy to spot the bullshit, who do these stinking crap logs think they're kidding with this? As if any sane leader would leave his gold with the English if he could instead move it home??? And yet, here's the "ANAL-ysis" from the Crown's pig dogs at reuters "news" service....

"...It is just the latest in a string of grand gestures and controversial plans by the unpredictable socialist leader (HAHAHAHA) that are easier for him to order than to put into practice, and it has set officials scurrying to make it happen.

His political opponents accuse Chavez of planning to use the country's gold to boost his campaign war chest ahead of next year's presidential election, and others say bringing the gold home is a waste of money and effort. (SMEAR via INNUENDO from paid whore bags in service to The City of London)

"It doesn't make sense. It would be cheaper to sell the gold and at the same time buy gold in closer locations," said Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital Markets. ..."(Thanks for that advice Russ. Now make like a good little salmon and go f*ck off)

Here's the whole illuminating "piece":

Venezuela scrambles to bring home gold reserves

* Chavez ordered $11 billion worth of bullion brought home

* Source says ingots with be flown back, beginning in Nov.

By Eyanir Chinea

CARACAS, Oct 26 (Reuters) - At the foot of a dimly lit spiral staircase far below Venezuela's Central Bank, workers prepare for an unusual arrival: 17,000 gold bars being shipped back on the order of President Hugo Chavez.

Repatriating about 190 tonnes of bullion worth more than $11 billion from banks in the West will be risky, slow and expensive, experts say. (HAHAHAHA)

Read more

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:39pm

Great show for sure F2B, lot

Great show for sure F2B, lot of work though. Hell I can call up Provident Metals or APMEX and buy my gold, and not get dirty or spill any of my beer doing so. :)

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:42pm

I have way too much time on my hands

This thing looks like it's getting stronger as the day progresses.

cpnscarlet ewc58
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:42pm

Venezu Gold

I thought this whole transfer was supposed to have been done months before the actual announcement was made. More lies and mis-info or were some of our gold "experts" wrong again? What happened when???

REMINDS ME OF A JOKE - "The bartender says 'We don't serve faster-than-light neutrinos here." A neutrino walks into a bar."

Think about it.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:49pm

Can't I please just think about

Daniela Cambone and the PMs instead today?

Welcome to $1,700 Gold
Tom L
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:51pm


I'd say not yet.. It just broke below both the s2 pivot and 288 DMA. It looks like it's returning to the 15-20 range.$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=19&id=p19914673719


opticsguy GoldenTurds
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:53pm

spy puts

got some spy puts at the high earlier today. I may double down at the closing ramp.

Nick Elway
Oct 27, 2011 - 1:53pm

Short (TBF) versus UltraShort (TBT)

Every multi-year back test I've done (Moving Average cross multi-day trades) shows better return from the single short than the ultrashort. I avoid -2X when I can find a -1X vehicle. My results betting on higher interest rates have been abysmal, but still I have some TBF.

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:54pm

Paging Dr G....

Doctor C wants to know when you can fit in a round of golf....

Oct 27, 2011 - 1:56pm

TOML I agree 100%. Still not

TOML I agree 100%. Still not seeing the money. Market looks full, but not in this direction yet. I have a few I made some money on, but coffee money as I call it.

Be well

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:00pm

Collected short term forecasts-day 32 I think it is

Very short term predictions are impossible for me as I base them on long term trends, not short term charting skills which I do not have at all. Nevertheless, I made some 1 month ago and in between, and here they all are:

a)Brent Crude oil September 26th:

It says ICE Brent crude 105 (later I added +-10) - valid through the 1 month period, today: 111, 85 USD

b)Silver and gold short term on September 27th:

1) Silver may fluctuate around 30 USD (+- 3?) for 1 month or so (except very short sharp peaks, perhaps) , then move up sharply about 5 USD to 35-40 and drop again, now to little higher level of 33-35 +-5, and not change much anymore this year. So the bottom will be kind of close from time to time during October.

We are entering move up sharply after 1 month or so from Sep 27th.

2) Gold, on the contrary, seems to be posed for relatively steady growth till 1800 in November, around which level it should fluctuate for few months (+- 50 ?) ;No real problems here -still time, direction OK . Almost within -50USD.

Kind of suggests may be more commodities will have relatively flat period from Oct-Nov till the end of the Year. Not checked

c) EUR/USD on October 5th and 12th:

what I have predicted on October 5th is , that USD per EUR will go up from 1,325 to 1,40-1,425-1,45 till the end of the year 2011. We see the first week of this movement already (of course, it will not move up in straight line, with hiccups, the line is to thick, but the general trend is clear). So far spot on, especially after false "rescue" of Eurozone today.

d) About DJIA on October 24th, where I said:

I predict that :

DJIA index maximum seen in this week and next - will be the highest for next 2 months till January 1st, 2012.

There are still 10days time to check it out. Next week ends on November 4th.

e) There should not be any other "short" term predictions I have made, except what are present in the long term charts. I do not feel very ashamed of the accuracy so far, but i do recognize it is mainly beginners luck. What I like about them though is, they are all my own 100%.

Tom L
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:02pm


Thanks for the advice. I will put TBF on my radar.


Oct 27, 2011 - 2:03pm

Give the man credit

Give the man credit where credit is due. Four days, 12 percent in silver, and 100$ in gold ago, TF made one hell of a call on Monday. Nobody can be perfect, but damn he's good at this.

With the crowd chanting "TURD.. TURD... TURD...", the man in the oversize yellow hat walks onstage to thunderous applause. He lightly tips his foam Stetson then starts casually flicking ASE's to the enraptured mob, whipping them into a near-religious frenzy. And somewhere, in a cool air-conditioned penthouse office, a blonde commodities desk director stares icily at the computer feed of the scene, hatred burning like a molten blue flame in her eyes. Stone faced, she hisses "This isn't over yet, Ferguson..."

P.S. See how the supply of "member for 1 hr" posters who come in to trash Turd disappears during weeks like this? Don't forget it when they magically reappear on a down day.

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:13pm


Thanks for your work and explanation on the process you go through

I'll be heading over to the forum and looking at your work and theories.

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:14pm

Silver has reached a key technical level

Silver has reached a key technical level

"Let the good times roll" is once again the motto of the stock market perma bulls as the Europeans graced the world financial markets with a gigantic sized punch bowl to help slake the thirst of the liquidity junkies. Mix in a dose of a better than expected US GDP number and it was "RISK ON" in a big way.

Silver, as expected when the risk trades are in full force, outperformed gold to the upside putting on nearly 6% against gold's 1.5% gain.

Note the chart and you can see that it has climbed exactly to the key Fibonacci 50% retracement level of its recent decline off the August high. It has also punched slightly above the 40 day moving average (dotted line) which a large number of fund traders monitor and is not far from the 50 day moving average.

If you recall the recent Commitment of Traders data, it showed a very low level of hedge funds on the net long side of this market, most of them having washed out over the past few months. If that crowd becomes convinced that the Europeans have effectively dealt with the sovereign debt crisis ( papering over the losses of the banks), they will pour money back into silver with a vengeance. Just take one look at what they have done to the copper and crude oil markets.

A push through today's session high puts silver on a path to make a run at $37.30 - $37.50.

Downside support is back near $33 followed by $32.50

Posted by Trader Dan at 11:10 AM 0 comments
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:16pm

We are not worthy TURD

We are not worthy TURD

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:16pm


Loved every bit of that!

Dr G ewc58
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:18pm me some copper me some copper today!

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:22pm

Hyperinflation hmm.

What I've been thinking about for awhile is how hyperinflation is going to occur? When governments print money, eventually money velocity (this is what causes hyper inflation not simply money printing, follow with me here) increases as people incorporate inflation expectations into their buying behavior. But what I'm seeing with the money printing IRL is something different. We presently have inflation in what people need (food, gas, clothes) along with shrinking real disposable incomes. Since people must pay for their needs with short term money (cash, check, CC), there is little ability for them to adjust to inflation when they are living paycheck to paycheck. If disposable incomes were higher they would stockpile and turn their money over faster. We see decreasing prices in wants like homes, vehicles, electronics, vacations, things that require saving to pay for or taking out a loan to pay for. Since savings have disappeared and no one can afford to take out more loans OR WANTS TO there is much less demand for these items. So, money as a multiplier does not flow through society, except in certain areas. However, today money does not move through multiple hands but is returned almost immediately to the banks as debt payment, since most intermediaries are also burdened with debt.

In order for hyperinflation to occur money must increase in velocity? How does that happen when fewer and fewer people have jobs and pay for existing jobs is less? People want to eat, stay warm, and pay off debts now. Fed has 2 theoretical tools that are not working anymore to increase velocity of money. 1. Lowering interest rates to encourage borrowing and 2. QE

Interest rates cannot be lowered anymore. QE, someone explain this process to me. Fed buys bonds from Treasury. Treasury now has the cash. What happens to the money at this point to get it circulating through society? You can print all you want IMO but if people are unwilling to spend it or are using earnings to pay debt, and corporations and banks are just sitting on the cash "because of uncertainty" then the money printing does nothing.

How does money move through the system? Gov't forces it to? Gov't creates regulations that force businesses and people to spend the money. I'm not understanding how hyperinflation is going to manifest. Perhaps compartmentalized hyperinflation in commodities, necessities? But deflation in non-essential areas? While most people are forced to spend income on inflating necessities the 1% gobble up severely discounted real assets?

Ferd Torgerson
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:23pm

Don't Forget to Feed the Turd

On a day like today, with my phyzz going up and my gold and silver miners rising like they haven't in quite some time, I just had to "Feed the Turd".

And, no, tuppence won't quite do it. Let's share with our benefactor the Turd some of that fiat we've made today.

And, Turd, why, when I type "Turd", does it appear that I need to do a spell check? Maybe Turdtown could float a bond issue or get an infrastructure loan to upgrade our spell check dictionary. I think we can find enough suckers who are still buying bonds. Or, in the alternative, I hear infrastructure loans are available just for the asking. If anyone questions the deal, just take the fifth.

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:27pm

Great Job Turd and Ivars

Maybe two great minds can work together.


Oct 27, 2011 - 2:28pm
GoldenTurds opticsguy
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:29pm

spy puts

Opticsguy.... which ones did you pick up?

I did the SPY Jan 2012 116.000 put. Limit order executed at 2.40.....

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:33pm

Just sold AUQ

Selling the paper to get physical. My purchase of physical will be in the future. The fundamentals are reading major sell-off to me. I believe that the titans are jockeying for position to hurt the criminals.

What better than to be a second powerhouse causing a short-squeeze, for the desks to go long, and drop a hammer.

Use some caution here folks.

Moderator Jefferson
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:36pm
Silver Monkey
Oct 27, 2011 - 2:49pm

Something Important to Note from latest Reggie Middleton Piece

on ZH

I'm a lawyer (and investor). There is no analysis by anyone on the internet
about whether the announcement last night would in fact trigger CDS
payout. Rather, everyone seems to be accepting the claim by ISDA that
the decision would not trigger it. Because I can't find any legal
analysis worth reading on the internet
I decided to do my own research. In about 5 minutes I found a case in
the 2nd Circuit (USA) that explained to me what's going on with those
contracts. First of all, they are unregulated private contracts between
private parties. In order to know whether a trigger occurred you have to
read each individual contract. As a result, what the ISDA says about
whether a trigger occurred as to private contracts that are out there is
totally meaningless.

There is merit to this assertion since the ISDA contract is simply a non-binding template, often marked up to accomodate financial engineering widgets designed to increase profit margin and decrease transparency to clients and counterparties.
By the time all of the widgets are installed on some of these highly
customized deals, the original ISDA template is a non-issue.

seems to be the issue is whether there is considered to be "economic
coercion" going on if one of the events to trigger is "restructuring."

Whaaattt!!! Coercion? What Coercion???!!!

Furthermore, you have to not look at voluntariness in a vacuum but compare the (Greek) bond with the substitute being offered by EU to determine if economic coercion or true voluntariness
exists. For example, if the EU will give priority in payment to the
substitute it is offering and not the original bond, that is the proper
analysis in determining economic coercion/voluntariness
etc. My analysis here is based upon a very brief reading of the case
and I would need time to analysis fully. Also I'm not a financial
professional I don't understand all the implications of what the EU
announced. The reason I'm contacting you is because I believe that in
the coming days/weeks we will hear of entities that are buyers of the
CDS protection giving notice of a credit event to their counterparties to seek to collect on the CDS contract. If payouts aren't made lawsuits will be filed.

had better believe it. I really don't know why everybody is glazing
over this very obvious fact! Imagine if you bought protection on a bond
you acquired at par and you are offered 50% of it back (NPV) to be
considered whole while the CDS writer laughs at and says thanks for the
premiums... You'd probably break your fingers dialing your lawyer - out
of both the swap payments, the CDS payout, and 50% of your investment
that you thought (but really should have known better) was protected!

don't know what a US Court will decide as to whether a trigger has
occurred but there is a 2nd circuit case (the one I mentioned above)
that is the best I've found to give an inkling about this... I'm telling
you all this, because if I am right and there are claims that CDS was
triggered and CDS in fact gets triggered... [it should be made] public
so people start analyzing whether CDS was in fact triggered instead of
blindly accepting the drivel out of Europe that no trigger will occur.
That claim is obviously all about perception management not necessarily

Oct 27, 2011 - 2:51pm


I really enjoyed that post.



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